Assessing low-carbon development in Nigeria

425 Pages·2013·10.23 MB·English

by  World Bank Group

d
e
z
ri
o
h
ut
A
e A W O R L D B A N K S T U D Y
r
u
s
o
cl
s
Di
Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria: An Analysis of Four Sectors is part of the World Bank Studies A blic
series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s ongoing research and to s u
P
stimulate public discussion. s
e
The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted Vision 20: 2020—an ambitious strategy to make Nigeria
s
the world’s 20th largest economy by 2020. In the absence of policies to accompany economic growth in key s
carbon-emitting sectors with a reduced carbon footprint, emission of greenhouse gases could more than in d
e
double in the next two decades. z
g ri
To evaluate how to achieve the objectives of Vision 20: 2020 with reduced carbon emissions, the Federal o
h
Government of Nigeria and the World Bank undertook a multiyear program of analytical work. The summary L ut
A
o
results of this program are contained in a separate book (published in the World Bank’s “Directions in Develop- e
w r
ment” series) entitled Low-Carbon Development: Opportunities for Nigeria, which concludes that Nigeria can su
achieve its development objectives, while stabilizing emissions at 2010 levels and providing domestic benefi ts -C clo
s
on the order of 2 percent of GDP. Di
a
This volume is a collection of the background technical reports on the four sectors of inquiry: agriculture and r blic
land use, oil and gas, power, and transport. It contains details on the data, methodology, and assumptions used b u
P
throughout the analysis. o
n
For agriculture and land use, the study team developed an agriculture production growth model, which

permits the evaluation of sector emissions in both a reference and a low-carbon scenario. The study fi nds that D
d
low-carbon practices have signifi cant potential to make the sector more productive and more climate-resilient. e
e z
For the oil and gas sector, the analysis assesses the potential of accelerated phase-put of gas fl aring, reduction v ori
h
of leakages, and increased energy effi ciency in the operation of facilities, to both reduce the sector’s emission e ut Assessing Low-Carbon
and contribute to the industry’s net revenues and growth. The analysis of the power sector shows how the lo e A
country can expand power generation and broaden access to electricity while reducing associated emissions, p ur
s
tFhinroaullgy,h t hreisn aenwaalbysleis e ansesregsy,s eesn ethrgey e exfpfi eccietendc yg, raonwdt hlo iwne Cr-Oca2r beomni stseicohnnso flroogmie so nin- rtohaedrm traaln psopworetr u gnedneerr aat inoonr.m al m sclo Development in Nigeria
Di
business development scenario up to the year 2035, and it identifi es actions at national and local levels that e c
would reduce this growth, resulting in fuel economies, better air quality, and reduced congestion. n bli
u
Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria: An Analysis of Four Sectors outlines several actions that the t P
i
Nigerian government could undertake to facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy. n AN ANALYSIS OF FOUR SECTORS
World Bank Studies are available individually or on standing order. This World Bank Studies series is also
N
available online through the World Bank e-library (www.worldbank.org/elibrary).
i
g d
e
e z
ri
r o
ia uth
A
e
r
u
s
o
cl
s
Di
ISBN 978-0-8213-9973-6
c
bli
u Raffaello Cervigni, John Allen Rogers, and
P
Africa Renewable Energy
and Access Program (AFREA) Irina Dvorak, Editors
SKU 19973

Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria

A World BAnk Study
Assessing Low-Carbon
Development in Nigeria
An Analysis of Four Sectors
Raffaello Cervigni, John Allen Rogers, and Irina Dvorak, Editors
© 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433
Telephone: [phone]; Internet: www.worldbank.org
Some rights reserved
1 2 3 4 16 15 14 13
World Bank Studies are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s work to the development com-
munity with the least possible delay. The manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in
accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally edited texts.
This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. Note that The World
Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content included in the work. The World Bank
therefore does not warrant that the use of the content contained in the work will not infringe on the rights
of third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you.
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views
of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank
does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations,
and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World
Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and
immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.
Rights and Permissions
This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license (CC BY 3.0) http://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to
copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following
conditions:
Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Cervigni, Raffaello, John Allen Rogers, and Irina Dvorak,
eds. 2013. Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria: An Analysis of Four Sectors. World Bank
Study. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-9973-6. License: Creative Commons
Attribution CC BY 3.0
Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the
attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official
World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.
All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818
H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: [phone]; e-mail: [email protected].
ISBN (paper): 978-0-8213-9973-6
ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-9976-7
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9973-6
Cover image: A member of a women’s farming cooperative stands before solar panels that power her com-
munity’s drip irrigation farms. Solar market gardens provide a cost-effective, labor-saving, and clean way of
delivering much-needed irrigation water, particularly during the long, dry season. © Jennifer Burney, Center
on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University. Used with the permission of Jennifer Burney /
Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University. Further permission required for reuse.
Cover design: Naylor Design, Inc.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Assessing low-carbon development in Nigeria : an analysis of four sectors / Raffaello Cervigni, John Allen
Rogers, and Irina Dvorak (editors).
pages cm
ISBN 978-0-8213-9973-6 — ISBN 978-0-8213-9976-7 (electronic)
1. Air—Pollution—Economic aspects—Nigeria. 2. Carbon dioxide mitigation—Nigeria. 3. Industries—
Environmental aspects—Nigeria. 4. Environmental policy—Nigeria. I. Cervigni, Raffaello. II. World Bank.
HC1055.Z9A456 2013
363.738’74609669—dc23 2013019418
Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9973-6
Contents
Preface xix
About the Editors and Authors xxi
Acknowledgments xxiii
PArt 1 Agriculture and land use Sector 1
Acknowledgments 3
Abbreviations 5
Executive Summary 7
Chapter 1 Introduction 11
Notes 15
References 16
Data Sources for the Agriculture and Land Use Sector 17
Chapter 2 The Reference Scenario 21
Agricultural Growth Model 21
GHG Emissions Model 22
Emissions Baseline 27
Notes 29
References 29
Chapter 3 The Low-Carbon Scenarios: Mitigation Options 31
Sustainable Land Management Options 31
Adjusted Agricultural Growth Model 32
Emissions Models under Two Low-Carbon Scenarios 39
Low-Carbon Scenarios: Results 42
Notes 52
References 53
Chapter 4 Recommendations for an Effective Low-Carbon Strategy
in the AFOLU Sector 55
Building a Network of Climate Smart Agriculture Partners 56
Effective Implementation Mechanisms 57
Building a Strong and Coherent Policy Environment 60
Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9973-6   v
vi Contents
Notes 61
References 62
Bibliography for Agriculture and Land Use Sector 63
Appendix A Emissions Coefficients and Other Parameters Used in
the Model 67
Appendix B Land Use Changes in the Reference Scenario 75
Appendix C Mitigation Options in the Low-Carbon Scenario 77
Appendix D Further Details on Low-Carbon Scenarios A and B 87
Appendix E Sensitivity Analysis of the Model Results 93
PArt 2 oil and Gas Sector 101
Acknowledgments 103
Abbreviations 105
Executive Summary 107
Chapter 5 Introduction 115
Industry History 115
Study Objectives and Methodology 117
Study Sources and Assumptions 117
References 117
Data Sources for the Oil and Gas Sector 118
Chapter 6 Production of Oil and Natural Gas 121
Gas Production and Gas Demand 123
Gas Demand 124
Gas Supply/Demand Balance 128
References 129
Chapter 7 Emissions Sources 131
Major Emission Sources 131
Estimation of GHG Emissions 133
References 134
Chapter 8 Reference Scenario 137
Results of the GHG Emissions Forecast for the
Reference Scenario 137
Chapter 9 Low-Carbon Scenario 139
Data and Assumptions 139
Carbon Mitigation Options 140
Potential Impact of Mitigation Options 147
Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9973-6
Contents vii
Notes 149
References 149
Chapter 10 Gas, LPG, and Electricity Prices 151
References 153
Chapter 11 Marginal Abatement Costs Curve and Return Value 155
Calculating the MAC Curve 156
Chapter 12 Sensitivity Analysis of the Study Results 159
Sensitivity to Discount Rate 159
Chapter 13 Recommendations 163
Recommendations for the Short Term 163
Recommendations for the Medium Term 164
Recommendations for the Long Term 164
Reference 164
Bibliography for Oil and Gas Sector 165
Appendix F Framework for Estimating Oil and Gas Emissions 167
PART 3 Power Sector 189
Acknowledgments 191
Abbreviations 193
Executive Summary 197
Chapter 14 Introduction 213
Objectives 213
Purpose of Power Sector Scenarios 214
Study Sources and Assumptions 214
Scope and Limitations 215
Organization of Power Sector Study 215
References and Data Sources for the Power Sector 216
Chapter 15 General Framework 219
An Integrated Modeling Framework 220
Population Growth 220
GDP Growth 221
Note 223
References 223
Chapter 16 Reference Scenario 225
Electricity Demand 226
Load Duration Curve 231
Existing and Planned Generating Capacities 231
Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9973-6
viii Contents
Power Generation Technologies for Reference Scenario 232
Technology Mix for the Reference Scenario 234
Note 236
References 236
Chapter 17 Low-Carbon Scenario 239
Methodology for Developing the Low-Carbon Scenario 239
Promoting Energy Efficiency 241
Improving T&D Loss Reduction 245
Power Generation Potential of Renewable Technologies 245
The Costs of Power Generation by Technology 252
Analysis for a Low-Carbon Technology Mix 257
Comparing Scenarios by Cost of Generation 267
Notes 271
References 271
Chapter 18 Sensitivity to Costs of Fuel and Renewables 275
Uncertainties in Costs of Fuels and Renewables 275
Technology Mix for the Delayed Low-Carbon Scenario 276
Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Delayed
Low-Carbon Scenario 279
Comparing Costs for the Three Scenarios 281
References 284
Chapter 19 Developing an Integrated Low-Carbon Plan for
Nigeria’s Power Sector 285
Challenges and Opportunities for Low-Carbon
Development 285
Foundations for a Low-Carbon Plan 289
Recommendations for a Low-Carbon Plan for Nigeria 291
References 301
Bibliography for Power Sector 303
Appendix G GDP Growth and Load Duration Curves 305
Appendix H Off-grid Generation 307
Appendix I Grid Power Supplies 309
Appendix J Existing and Planned Generating Capacities 311
Appendix K Concentrating Solar Power Potential 313
Appendix L Small Hydropower (SHP) Potential 315
Appendix M Waste-to-Energy (WtE) Potential 317
Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9973-6