Assessing Living Conditions in Iraq's Anbar Province in 2009

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Assessing Living Conditions
in Iraq’s Anbar Province
in 2009
Audra K. Grant, Martin C. Libicki
Prepared for the Marine Corps Intelligence Activity
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
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Preface
Te local population is the center of gravity in counterinsurgency, and the frst step toward
winning over the population is to understand it. To this end, the RAND Corporation, in
spring 2008 and spring 2009, conducted a survey of Iraq’s Anbar Province by putting a detailed
set of questions to 1,200 randomly selected households. Te survey was designed to collect a
wide variety of data—ranging from demographics and housing to employment and living
s tandards—about Anbari households and the province’s citizens. Tis report summarizes the
key results of the 2009 survey and includes comparisons, as appropriate, to the 2008 phase of
1
the project.
Al-Anbar has been surveyed before, notably in 2004, when the Iraqi government, with
cooperation from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Fafo-AIS, car-
ried out a countrywide survey, reporting results in 2005 on a province-by-province basis.
RAND’s survey project built on this previous efort and, although this report focuses on more-
current conditions, it does ofer comparisons to the situation described in 2004.
Tis research was sponsored by the Marine Corps Intelligence Activity and conducted
within the Intelligence Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a
federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Ofce of the Secretary of
Defense, the Joint Staf, the Unifed Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the
defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.
For more information on RAND’s Intelligence Policy Center, contact the Director, John
Parachini. He can be reached by email at
Contents
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv
Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction and Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Comparing the 2008 and 2009 Surveys: Learning from Past Experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Factors Infuencing the Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
CHAPTER TWO
Te Security Situation and the Efects of War . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Perceptions of Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Te Efects of War . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
CHAPTER THREE
Public Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Health Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
CHAPTER FOUR
Demographics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Family Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Distribution by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Distribution by Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Extended Families and Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Children . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Marriage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
v
vi Assessing Living Conditions in Iraq’s Anbar Province in 2009
CHAPTER FIVE
Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
CHAPTER SIX
Income and Standards of Living . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Standards of Living . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
CHAPTER SEVEN
Education. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Literacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
CHAPTER EIGHT
Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Survey Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
CHAPTER NINE
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Future Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
APPENDIX
RAND al-Anbar Standard of Living Survey: Year Two (May–June 2009) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
Figures
2.1. Who Would You Turn to If Treatened or Victimized by Crime? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2.2. Who Treatens Your Neighborhood the Most? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.3. Are U.S. Eforts to Bring Security and Order to Iraq Going Well? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.4. Is the United States Making Signifcant Progress in Restoring Civil Order in Iraq? . . . . . . 10
2.5. Satisfaction Indexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.6. Travel Time to Various Destinations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.7. Te Destination of Individuals Who Left Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.8. Prior Location of Households that Moved to al-Anbar After December 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3.1. Top Reported Problems in Iraq’s Health Care System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3.2. Type of Professional Consulted by Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
3.3. Source First Consulted for Health Care by Urban and Rural Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
3.4. Percentage of Households Tat Consult Doctors First, by Education Level
of Household Head . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
3.5. Ease of Access to Various Forms of Health Care . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
3.6. Te Afordability of Health Care . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
3.7. Average Travel Time to Hospitals, Primary Physicians, and Pharmacies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
3.8. Types of Institution Relied on for Health Care . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
3.9. Sources of Health Care Financing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
4.1. Distribution of 1,200 Households, by Number of Household Members . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
4.2. Male-to-Female Ratio, by Age and Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
4.3. Number of Household Heads, by Age and Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
4.4. Number of Households with Members Who Are Not Part of the Immediate Family . . . . 31
4.5. Percentage of Households, by the Age of the Youngest Member . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
4.6. Number of Children, by the Age Diference Between the Child and
the Next-Oldest Sibling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
4.7. Percentage of Children with Living Parents, by the Child’s Age. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
4.8. Age at Marriage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
4.9. Number of Male Heads of Household, by Age Diference Between
Husband and Wife . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
4.10. Marital Status of Men, by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
4.11. Marital Status of Women, by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
4.12. Scatter Plot of Current Age and Age at First Marriage Among Men . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
5.1. Percentage of Individuals with a Job in May 2009, by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
5.2. Labor-Force Participation Rates, by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
5.3. Percentage of Individuals with a Job in May 2009, by Age/Age Group
and Motherhood Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
5.4. Percentage of Households Reporting a Specifc Number of Workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
5.5. Average Age at Which Individuals First Started to Work, by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
vii
viii Assessing Living Conditions in Iraq’s Anbar Province in 2009
5.6. Number of Unemployed Individuals, by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
5.7. Employment Status of Males Ages 16–23, by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
5.8. Job Types Held by Respondents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
6.1. Weekly Wages in May 2009 and December 2007, by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
6.2. Increase/Decrease in Wages Between December 2007 and May 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
6.3. Men’s and Women’s Weekly Wages in May 2009, by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
6.4. Share of Earnings in May 2009, by Income Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
6.5. Share of Earnings in 2008, by Income Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
6.6. Percentage of Households Tat Reported Receiving Money from a Specifc Activity . . . . . 52
6.7. Labor Earnings as a Percentage of Total Income, by Decile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
6.8. Sources from Which Households Received Food Rations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
6.9. Growth in Real Income Between 2007 and 2008, by Decile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
6.10. Income, by Decile, as a Ratio of Average Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
6.11. Source of Average Annual Income, by Education Level of Household Head . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
6.12. Assessments of the Household’s Economic Situation and the Outlook for Iraq . . . . . . . . . . 56
6.13. Percentage of Households Tat Can Aford a Particular Item . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
6.14. Could You Raise 200,000 Dinars in a Week? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
6.15. Percentage of Households Tat Had Been Ofered Assistance from
a Particular Source . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
6.16. Percentage of Households Tat Own at Least One of a Particular
Type of Household Item . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
6.17. Mode of Transportation Used for Personal Trips . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
6.18. Number of Households with a Cell Phone or a Landline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
6.19. How Households Access the Internet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
7.1. Literacy Index, by Age and Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
7.2. Schooling, by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
7.3. Type of School Attended, by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
7.4. Education and Employment Status, Ages 19–23, by Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
7.5. Main Reason for Not Attending School, by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
7.6. Education Level of Household Heads, by Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
7.7. Vocational/Technical Training, by Subject . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
7.8. Annual Household Spending on Education per Student . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
7.9. Average Annual Cost of Education per Student, by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
8.1. Number of Bedrooms in the Household’s Dwelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
8.2. Average Number of Bedrooms and Other Rooms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72