Asia’s Quest for Balance: China’s Rise and Balancing in the Indo-Pacific

334 Pages·2017·3.007 MB·English

by  Jeff M. Smith

A S I A ’ S Q U E S T F O R B A L A N C E

A S I A ’ S Q U E S T F O R B A L A N C E
China’s Rise and Balancing in the Indo-Pacific
Edited by
Jeff M. Smith
ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Information Available
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Smith, Jeff M., author.
Title: Asia’s quest for balance : China’s rise and balancing in the
Indo-Pacific / Jeff M. Smith.
Description: Lanham, Maryland : Rowman & Littlefield, 2018. | Includes
bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2018013062 (print) | LCCN 2018029455 (ebook) | ISBN
9781538106341 (Electronic) | ISBN 9781538106334 (cloth : alk. paper)
Subjects: LCSH: Geopolitics—Pacific Area. | Geopolitics—Indian Ocean
Region. | Security, International—Pacific Area. | Security,
International—Indian Ocean Region. | Pacific Area—Foreign
relations—21st century. | Indian Ocean Region—Foreign relations—21st
century. | China—Foreign relations—21st century
Classification: LCC JZ1980 (ebook) | LCC JZ1980 .S55 2018 (print) | DDC
327.5—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018013062
™
The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of
American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper
for Printed Library Materials, ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992.
Printed in the United States of America
Contents
Preface vii
Acknowledgments ix
Introduction: Let Her Sleep 1
1 Balancing Basics 5
2 A Nationalist Awakening 9
3 Threat Perceptions 20
4 A Balancing Preview 28
5 Singapore 40
6 Malaysia 54
7 Indonesia 67
8 The Philippines 82
9 Vietnam 98
10 Myanmar 117
11 Australia 133
12 India 153
13 Japan 172
14 The Asian Balancing Landscape 187
15 Engagement and Sharp Power 195
16 The Return of the Quad 208
17 A New Cycle of (Under-) Balancing 225
18 Conclusions and Common Ground 234
— v —
vi Contents
Notes 243
Index 311
Contributors 319
Preface
This book was designed as an analytical examination of Balancing1
in the Indo-Pacific. It explores how China’s neighbors are responding
to its rapid accumulation of power and influence, and the more assertive
Chinese foreign policy that has emerged since 2008. How has this more as-
sertive China impacted the strategic calculus of select Indo-Pacific capitals?
To what degree are they adopting Balancing strategies to hedge against the
risk of Chinese aggression or coercion, as proponents of the Realist school of
international relations predict?
How does Balancing vary across the region in character, intensity, and
objective? To what degree are China’s neighbors pursuing deeper security
cooperation with the United States and other regional parties in pursuit of a
more stable Balance of Power? What issues and policies are most concerning
to regional capitals and what contingencies are most likely to change their
approach to Balancing in the future? How does this round differ from past
Balancing cycles and how have globalization and economic interdependence
altered the Balancing landscape?
To help answer these questions, prominent author-experts from around
the world have contributed country-specific chapters analyzing the Balancing
phenomenon from the perspectives of Japan, India, Vietnam, the Philippines,
Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, Singapore, and Myanmar. The countries cho-
sen represent a collection of Chinese neighbors that have witnessed sharp-
ening tensions with Beijing in recent years, in many cases over unresolved
territorial disputes.
— vii —
viii Preface
For their respective countries, contributing authors were asked to provide
an overview of contemporary bilateral relations with China, recent trends and
key disputes of concern, perceptions of China’s trajectory and ambitions, the
current state of Internal and External Balancing, their relationship with the
United States and its impact on Balancing, and the future Chinese policies or
contingencies that might alter their country’s strategic calculus.
The study would undoubtedly have benefited from the inclusion of others,
not least Taiwan and South Korea. Chapters covering Cambodia and Laos
would have painted a more holistic picture of the regional landscape and of-
fered contrasting examples of countries eschewing Balancing in the exclusive
pursuit of greater diplomatic and economic cooperation with China.
The book begins with a brief introduction contextualizing China’s rise and
the geopolitical significance of Asian Balancing. Chapter 1 examines Balanc-
ing as an international relations phenomenon and proposes a reconsideration
of how we conceptualize Balancing, Engagement, and Bandwagoning. Chap-
ter 2 explores the events surrounding China’s shift to a more assertive foreign
policy post-2008. Chapter 3 reviews the issues and policies that emerged as
the greatest sources of concern to China’s neighbors.
Chapter 4 examines evidence of Internal and External Balancing at a re-
gionwide level as well as the impact of the United States on regional Balanc-
ing calculations. Nine country-specific chapters from contributing authors
follow in chapters 5 through 13. Chapter 14 draws conclusions from those
contributions and explores the differences between the region’s Soft and Hard
Balancers.
Chapter 15 explores the enduring lure of Engagement and its limita-
tions, including the growing backlash against the outgrowth of Chinese
“sharp power.” Chapter 16 examines the revival of the “Quad,” a geopolitical
grouping of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. In chapter 17, the
unique characteristics of this Balancing cycle and the factors contributing to
regionwide “Under-Balancing” are analyzed. Chapter 18 offers a concluding
analysis and look ahead to the future.
Acknowledgments
This book would not have been possible without the generous support
of the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC), the Smith Richardson
Foundation, the Veale Foundation and The Heritage Foundation. All four
organizations deserve praise for their longstanding, ongoing commitment to
objective, nuanced foreign policy and national security analysis.
I’d also like to acknowledge the work of the capable interns and research
assistants who provided critical assistance to this project, not least Stephanie
Driscoll, Bailey Marsheck, and Helaina Hirsch. Last but certainly not least
I’d like to thank the contributing authors whose contributions to this study
proved invaluable:
Jay Batongbacal
Elliot Brennan
Tetsuo Kotani
Evan Laksmana
Joseph Liow and Hunter Marston
Rory Medcalf
C. Raja Mohan and Sylvia Mishra
Prashanth Parameswaran
Tran Truong Thuy and Ha Anh Tuan
— ix —