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Asian Space Race: Rhetoric or Reality? Ajey Lele Asian Space Race: Rhetoric or Reality? 123 AjeyLele InstituteforDefenceStudies& Analyses RaoTulaRamMarg NewDelhi India ISBN978-81-322-0732-0 ISBN978-81-322-0733-7(eBook) DOI10.1007/978-81-322-0733-7 SpringerIndiaHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2012950802 ©SpringerIndia2013 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartof thematerialisconcerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,reuseofillustrations,recitation, broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionorinformation storageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodology nowknownorhereafterdeveloped.Exemptedfromthislegalreservationarebriefexcerptsinconnection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. 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Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) To Pramada Preface Spacedisciplinehasattractedtheattentionofmanyformorethansixdecades.Ifirst gotalluredto space science andastronomyas a studentof Physics. Subsequently, as a part of my profession as an aviation meteorologist over a decade and half, I was the user of space technologies.For a decadeor so, while workingin a policy think tank on international relations and security issues, I am trying to juxtapose thethemeofstrategictechnologiesonasecuritydomain.Thisbookisanattemptto contextualisetheseeffortstodevelopanexplicitidea. Thisbookattemptstodescribethecurrentstateofspaceprogrammesofvarious Asianstates.Itprovidesasummaryoftheirprogrammesandhighlightstheirmajor contributions.Thisworkalsodeliberatesaboutthestrategicsignificanceofvarious Asianspaceprogrammes.Itisanattempttofindaconnectionbetweentechnology, interests,strategicrelevanceandpowerwithregardtoAsia’sspaceagenda. IowemygratitudetotheInstituteforDefenceStudiesandAnalyses(IDSA)and my previousand present DirectorsGeneralMr N S Sisodia and Dr Arvind Gupta forencouragingmetoundertakeresearchonthissubject.TheIDSAlibrary,alarge storehouseof informationI haveevercame across,made myjob simpler. I would like to thankparticularlyMrPitambar DattandMr MukeshKumarJha forallthe assistanceprovidedtomeinobtainingvariousmaterialanddata.Overtheyears,I havebeeninteractingwithvariouspolicymakersandacademiciansbothwithinand outsideIndia.Iamgratefultothemformanyusefuldiscussions. Lastly, my gratitude to my parents and wife Pramada and son Nipun for their support.Thecontentsofthismanuscriptreflectmyownpersonalviews. vii Contents PartI Introduction 1 StructureoftheBook ...................................................... 3 Reference..................................................................... 6 2 ConceptofAsiaandRelevanceofSpaceTechnologies................. 7 WhatIsAsia? ................................................................ 8 AsianContext................................................................ 9 PoliticalPatronageforTechnologyDevelopment.......................... 11 ScientificandTechnologicalPragmatism................................... 13 GrowthofTechnologyinAsia........................................ 14 RelevanceofSpaceTechnologiesforAsia........................... 18 TheSpaceEraandAsia ..................................................... 19 SpacePower.................................................................. 22 KeyAsianSpacePlayers.................................................... 24 References.................................................................... 25 PartII AsianSpaceNarratives 3 WestAsia’sInvestmentsinSpaceTechnologies......................... 29 Iran............................................................................ 29 Israel.......................................................................... 34 OtherStates .................................................................. 38 References.................................................................... 42 4 Pakistan’sSpaceCapabilities ............................................. 43 SpacePlan.................................................................... 44 TechnologyRevolution...................................................... 50 Assessment................................................................... 54 References.................................................................... 58 ix x Contents 5 India’sSpaceProgramme ................................................. 59 References.................................................................... 67 6 EastAsia’sSpaceAgenda ................................................. 69 NorthKorea.................................................................. 69 SouthKorea.................................................................. 73 Taiwan........................................................................ 76 References.................................................................... 77 7 China’sSpaceProgramme ................................................ 79 Assessment................................................................... 91 References.................................................................... 92 8 Japan’sSpaceProgramme ................................................ 95 OrganisationalStructure..................................................... 96 LaunchVehicles.............................................................. 98 SatelliteSystems............................................................. 100 SpaceIndigenizationandtheUSPolicies .................................. 101 ChangeinSpacePolicy...................................................... 102 ScientificExperimentsandInterplanetaryMissions ....................... 104 Assessment................................................................... 106 References.................................................................... 107 9 SpaceInvestments:SoutheastAsia....................................... 109 Indonesia..................................................................... 110 Malaysia...................................................................... 115 Vietnam....................................................................... 117 OtherStates .................................................................. 120 References.................................................................... 121 PartIII StrategicImplicationsofSpaceTechnologies 10 MissileandNuclearConundrums........................................ 125 NuclearPierce................................................................ 126 ConcealedMissileAmbitions............................................... 128 MissileDefence.............................................................. 135 MIRV......................................................................... 137 Assessment................................................................... 139 References.................................................................... 140 11 SatelliteNavigationandAsia.............................................. 143 History........................................................................ 144 PresentGenerationSystems................................................. 145 AsianNavigationalSystems................................................. 146 Japan ................................................................... 147 China................................................................... 149 India.................................................................... 153