ASEAN Economic Community: A Model for Asia-wide Regional Integration?

350 Pages·2016·2.247 MB·English

by  Bruno Jetin, Mia Mikic (eds.)

ASEAN Economic Community

ASEAN Economic Community
A Model for Asia-wide Regional Integration?
Edited by Bruno J etin and M ia M ikic
ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
Selection and editorial content © Bruno Jetin and Mia Mikic 2016
Individual chapters © their respective contributors 2016
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2016 978-1-137-53710-2
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First published 2016 by
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ISBN: 978–1–349–55385–3
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DOI: 10.1057/9781137535085
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
ASEAN Economic Community (Jetin and Mikic)
ASEAN Economic Community : a model for Asia-wide regional
integration? / edited by Bruno Jetin and Mia Mikic.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. ASEAN Economic Community. 2. Southeast Asia—Economic
integration. 3. Southeast Asia—Commerce. I. Jetin, Bruno, editor.
II. Mikic, Mia, editor. III. Jones, Lee, 1981– ASEAN's imitation
economic community. Container of (work): IV. Title.
HC441.A8445 2016
337.1(cid:2)59—dc23 2015022389
A catalogue record for the book is available from the British Library.
Contents
List of Figures v ii
List of Tables i x
Introduction 1
Bruno Jetin and Mia Mikic
Part I ASEAN Economic Integration in the Context
of East Asian Regionalism
1 ASEAN’s Imitation Economic Community: The Primacy
of Domestic Political Economy 1 1
David Martin Jones
2 By Chance or by Virtue? The Regional Economic Integration
Process in Southeast Asia 3 3
Jean-Rapha ë l Chaponni è re and Marc Lautier
3 Trade Implications of the ASEAN+ Agreements for
Other Asian Countries 59
Mia Mikic
4 Southeast Asian Countries in Global Production Networks 79
Prema-chandra Athukorala
5 Impact of Monetary Regime and Exchange Rates
on ASEAN Economic Integration 1 01
Nabil Afl ouk, Jacques Mazier, and Myoung Keun On
6 Global Value Chains and Competitiveness of the
Integrated Regions: Exchange Rate Issues 127
Witada Anukoonwattaka
7 Intra- and Extraregional Trade Costs of ASEAN Economies:
Implications for Asian Regional Integration 1 53
Yann Duval and Emilie Feyler
vi Contents
Part II Impact of Regional Integration on Structural Change,
Employment, and Inequalities
8 Regional Trade Agreements, Employment, and Inclusiveness 175
Kee Beom Kim, Fan Zhai, and Phu Huynh
9 Economic Development with Improved Conditions of
Employment and Reduced Inequality: What Choices
Does ASEAN Have in the Medium and Long Term? 197
Francis Cripps and Naret Khurasee
10 D oes Outsourcing Enhance Skill Premiums in ASEAN? 217
Aekapol Chongvilaivan
11 R egional Integration and the Creative Economies of ASEAN:
Assessing the Potential for a Single ASEAN Creative Economy 231
Teemu Alexander Puutio
Part III Impact of Regional Integration on Poverty,
Inequalities, and Social Cohesion
12 S ocial Cohesion, Economic Resilience, and Long-Term Growth in
Southeast Asia and Developing Countries 243
Marc Lautier
13 R eduction of Absolute Poverty, Increase of Relative Poverty,
and Growing Inequalities: A Threat to Social Cohesion 267
Bruno Jetin
14 I nvestment in Infrastructure and Regional Integration:
Will Connectivity Reduce Inequalities? 291
Nathalie Fau
15 W ithin-Country Spatial Inequality and Local Governance
Capacity: The Case of Indonesia 311
Christine Cabasset
Conclusion 3 29
Mia Mikic and Bruno Jetin
List of Contributors 3 39
Index 3 45
Figures
2.1 Intraregional trade as percent of total trade 3 4
2.2 Europe-Asia and Intra-Asia trade before World War II
as a percent of world trade 35
2.3 FDI inflows in ASEAN and China from 1980 to 2013
in US$ billion 39
2.4 Tariffs on CEPT product 4 0
2.5 Frequency of NTB by country 42
2.6 Average tariff rate (manufactured products), intra- and
extra-ASEAN imports 4 3
2.7 Intra-ASEAN and ASEAN-world manufactured
export growth rate 43
2.8 Intra-ASEAN trade as a percent of ASEAN trade 4 9
3.1 Cumulative number of preferential trade agreements 6 4
3.2 Share of exports and imports with FTA partners
in countries’ total trade 6 5
3.3 Existing and planned FTAs among RCEP negotiating parties 7 2
5.1 Actual and equilibrium real effective and bilateral
exchange rates of ASEAN+3 104
5.2 Loss of competitiveness of East Asia 1 against East Asia 2,
East Asia 1 GDP 119
5.3 Loss of competitiveness of East Asia 1 against East Asia 2,
EA1 currency/Rest of the World exchange rate E4 1 20
5 .4 Loss of competitiveness of East Asia 1 against East Asia 2.
Impact on the share of intra-ASEAN trade in the total
trade of country EA1, in difference with the base line 1 21
5.5 Loss of competitiveness of ASEAN countries against China 1 22
5.6 Loss of competitiveness of ASEAN countries against China,
EA1 currency/Rest of the World exchange rate E4 1 22
5.7 Loss of competitiveness of East Asia against China. Impact
on the share of intra-ASEAN trade in the total trade
of country EA1, in difference with the base line 1 23
6.1 Exports of IPN-associated intermediate goods from Asia
and the Pacific to the world, 1992–2011 1 30
7.1 C ontribution of export, import, and liner shipping connectivity
performance to international supply chain connectivity in 2014 1 62
viii Figures
7.2 Ease of doing business: 2015 ranking 1 64
7.3 Information and communication technology
usage in ASEAN 165
8.1 Ratio of labor productivity by subsector to
that of agriculture, 2012 1 78
8.2 Change in GDP relative to the baseline, 2015,
2020, and 2025 180
8.3 Change in consumption, investment, exports,
and imports relative to the baseline, 2025 1 81
10.1 A fitted plot of international outsourcing of materials
input and labor productivity in Singapore
manufacturing industries, 1995–2004 2 22
10.2 A fitted plot of international outsourcing of services
input and labor productivity in Singapore
manufacturing industries, 1995–2004 2 23
12.1 Economic resilience map 2 48
12.2 Resilience profiles in Asia 2 51
12.3 Resilience profiles in Africa 2 51
12.4 Relationship between the contribution of growth losses
to the growth gap and the indicator SC & SE 2 59
12.5 Relationship between growth losses and
the indicator SC & SE 2 59
12.6 Relationship between growth speed difference
and the indicator SC & SE 2 60
13.1 Convergence of living standards in the
Asia Pacific, 1970–2011 270
13.2 Between-country inequality of total ASEAN
and ASEAN founder countries, 1960–2011 2 71
13.3 Contribution to the Theil Index of ASEAN
real GDP, 1970–2011 271
13.4 Convergence of low and middle-income
ASEAN countries toward Thailand 2 72
13.5 Absolute and relative poverty in Southeast
Asia around 2009–2012 2 78
13.6 Objective poverty and dissatisfaction in ASEAN 2 79
13.7 Interpersonal trust: Can you rely on friends and
family for help?, average 2011–2012 2 81
13.8 Societal trust: Do you think that most people
can be trusted?, average 2011–2012 2 81
13.9 Participation: Have you volunteered your time in
past month?, average 2011–2012 2 82
13.10 Can people get ahead by working hard?, 2011–2012 2 83
Tables
2.1 ASEAN economies in 2015 36
2.2 Tariffs and customs revenue in ASEAN countries 4 0
2.3 Distribution of tariff lines by program in 2010 4 1
2.4 European aid to ASEAN in million US$ 46
2.5 GL indicators in ASEAN 5 0
2.6 Degree of exports complementarities for total exports 5 1
3.1 Possible areas of negotiations under RCEP 6 8
3.2 Economic size of mega-regionals 7 4
4.1 Average annual compensation per production worker 8 3
4.2 Source-country composition of world manufacturing
exports, 1992–2003 and 2011–2012 85
4.3 Share of network products in manufacturing trade,
1992–1993 and 2011–2012 87
4.4 Composition of networks exports, 2011–2012 8 8
4.5 Share of parts and components in bilateral
trade flows, 2011–2012 92
4.6 Intraregional shares of manufacturing trade: Total, parts and
components, and final trade, 1992–1993 and 2011–2012 9 3
5.1 Alternative closures of each exchange rate regime 1 16
6.1 Shares of the Asia-Pacific region in global exports
of customized intermediate and final products
by subregion and selected economies, 2011 1 31
6.2 Partners in Asia-Pacific intermediate goods trading 1 32
6.3 Sources of IPN-associated intermediate imports
by select industries in China, 2011 1 33
6.4 Fixed-effects estimations of exchange rate effects
on intermediate electronics imports by China
from selected Asian countries, 1992–2011 1 41
6.5 Fixed-effects estimations of exchange rate effects
on intermediate apparel/footwear imports by
China from selected Asian countries, 1992–2011 1 42
6.6 Fixed-effects estimations of exchange rate effects
on intermediate automotive component imports
by China from selected Asian countries, 1992–2011 1 43