As Time Goes By in Argentina

367 Pages·2015·7.62 MB·English

DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT
Human Development
As Time Goes By in Argentina
Economic Opportunities and Challenges
of the Demographic Transition
Michele Gragnolati, Rafael Rofman, Ignacio Apella, and Sara Troiano

As Time Goes By in Argentina

Directions in Development
Human Development
As Time Goes By in Argentina
Economic Opportunities and Challenges
of the Demographic Transition
Michele Gragnolati, Rafael Rofman, Ignacio Apella, and Sara Troiano
© 2015 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
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Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Gragnolati, Michele, Rafael Rofman, Ignacio Apella, and
Sara Troiano. 2015. As Time Goes By in Argentina: Economic Opportunities and Challenges of the
Demographic Transition. Directions in Development. Washington, DC: World Bank.
doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0530-1. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO
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ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-0530-1
ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-0531-8
DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0530-1
Cover art: © Michele Gragnolati, Rafael Rofman, Ignacio Apella, and Sara Troiano. Used with permission;
further permission required for reuse.
Cover design: Debra Naylor, Naylor Design, Inc.
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As Time Goes By in Argentina • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0530-1
Contents
Abbreviations xvii
Preface 1
Chapter 1 Introduction 3
Michele Gragnolati, Rafael Rofman, Ignacio Apella,
and Sara Troiano
Motivation 3
Demographic Change in Argentina 6
The Economic Life Cycle 12
The Implications of Demographic Change on
Economic Growth 16
The Implications of Demographic Change on the
Welfare State 18
Poverty across the Life Cycle and the Role of
Public Transfers 26
Cross-Cutting Issues and Main Conclusions 28
Structure of the Report 34
Notes 35
References 36
Chapter 2 Demographic Panorama in Argentina 39
Carlos Grushka
Introduction 39
Trends and Prospects for the Argentine Population 39
Evolution of the Determinant Demographic Variables
in Argentina 42
Implications of the Demographic Evolution on
“Dependency” and “Dividends” 55
Annex 2A 60
Notes 67
References 68
As Time Goes By in Argentina • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0530-1   v
vi Contents
Chapter 3 National Transfer Accounts in Argentina 71
Pablo Comelatto
Introduction 71
Why Estimate National Transfer Accounts? 72
National Transfer Accounts Project: Basic Concepts 74
The NTAs in Argentina, 2010 76
Age Profile of Public Transfers and Their
Components, 2010 83
Final Reflections 88
Annex 3A 89
Notes 91
References 91
Chapter 4 Public Finance Implications of Population Aging
in Argentina: 2010, 2050, 2100 93
Michele Gragnolati and Sara Troiano
Introduction 93
Methodology: Age Structure and the Generosity of
Public Benefits 94
Projections of Social Spending for Argentina and
Comparator Countries 97
Conclusions 108
Notes 110
References 111
Chapter 5 Argentine Social Protection in a Context of
Demographic Transition 113
Rafael Rofman and Ignacio Apella
Introduction 113
Social Protection in Argentina 114
Social Protection and Poverty 121
Social Protection Beneficiaries in 2010 125
The Impact of Demographic Trends and Public
Policy Assumptions 128
Final Reflections 132
Notes 134
References 135
Chapter 6 Aging and Challenges for the Argentine Health
Care System 137
Daniel Maceira
Introduction 137
Salient Features of the Argentine Health Care System 138
Regional Factors 143
As Time Goes By in Argentina • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0530-1
Contents vii
Distribution of Coverage, Determinates of
Expenditure, and Projections 149
Policy Predictions 154
Equality and Access to Health Care 162
Final Reflections 166
Annex 6A 168
Notes 172
References 172
Chapter 7 Long-Term Care in Argentina 177
María Eugenia Barbieri
Introduction 177
Definition of Long-Term Care 179
Formal Long-Term Care Systems 182
Long-Term Care in Argentina 188
Final Reflections 197
Annex 7A 198
Notes 200
References 200
Chapter 8 Funding Basic Education throughout the Demographic
Transition in Argentina 203
Mariana Marchionni and Javier Alejo
Introduction 203
Enrollment, Coverage, and Funding Trends for Basic
Education in Argentina 204
Public Expenditure Effort to Fund Basic Education:
Argentina in the International Context 209
Expenditure Effort in Basic Education throughout
the Argentine Demographic Transformation 214
Final Reflections 227
Notes 230
References 233
Chapter 9 The Limits and Virtues of Reviewing Long-Term Fiscal
Policy in Light of Demographic Change in Argentina 235
Oscar Cetrángolo
Introduction 235
A Characterization of the Fiscal Situation at the Starting
Point Chosen as the Base Year for the Estimates 236
Some Factors That Explain the Evolution of
Public Expenditure 241
Persistent Tensions 245
Fiscal Projections and Challenges 250
As Time Goes By in Argentina • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0530-1
viii Contents
Final Reflections 255
Notes 256
References 256
Chapter 10 The Argentine Labor Market in a Context of
Demographic Transition 259
Ignacio Apella and Sara Troiano
Introduction 259
Demographic Transition, Dividends, and the Labor Market 260
Labor Market Entry and Exit Patterns 263
The Dependency Ratio and Economic Participation 265
Economic Participation among Young People in Argentina 272
The Active Elderly Population in Argentina 275
Final Reflections 281
Notes 283
References 283
Chapter 11 Argentine Labor Force Productivity in a Context of
Demographic Aging 285
Ignacio Apella and Sara Troiano
Introduction 285
Theoretical Framework 286
Methodologies Used to Estimate the Productivity-Age
Profile 287
Salary as an Approximation of Productivity:
How Plausible Is It? 289
Estimation of the Age Profile of Productivity 293
Policy Options: Taking Advantage of Heterogeneity in
the EAP and Productivity 296
Final Reflections 300
Notes 301
References 301
Chapter 12 Demographics and Macroeconomics: Opportunities
and Risks in Dividend-Era Argentina 305
José María Fanelli
Introduction 305
Transition Demographics, Window of Opportunity,
and Savings 307
The Life-Cycle Deficit and Sustaining Consumption 312
Dividends and the Life-Cycle Deficit 317
Financing the Life-Cycle Deficit, Accumulation, and
Macroeconomic Imbalances 325
Final Reflections 334
As Time Goes By in Argentina • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0530-1