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Artificial Intelligence and International Relations Theories Bhaso Ndzendze · Tshilidzi Marwala Artificial Intelligence and International Relations Theories · Bhaso Ndzendze Tshilidzi Marwala Artificial Intelligence and International Relations Theories Bhaso Ndzendze Tshilidzi Marwala University of Johannesburg University of Johannesburg Johannesburg, South Africa Johannesburg, South Africa ISBN 978-981-19-4876-3 ISBN 978-981-19-4877-0 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-4877-0 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore Preface Given the nature of the advances being made in artificial intelligence (AI) and its manifestation in areas relevant to international relations (IR), and the impact these are having on a number of its underlining assumptions, its theoretical paradigms may be in need of updating. To these ends, this book investigates the implications of the deepening interface between AI and various aspects of IR. We examine and, where appropriate, we update liberalism, realism, dependency, hegemonic stability theory, the English School, constructivism, postcolonial theory, feminism, and green theory. Updates are made to the economic interdependence-peace thesis, the democratic peace thesis, and hegemonic stability while also revisiting accounts of deterrence and dependency. Extant literature of AI in IR are otherwise integrated or further developed. The book is rich in empir- ical case studies, which substantiate or otherwise dismiss the hypotheses advanced by traditional and critical theories, using falsifiable methods and open access data so as to allow further corroboration by subsequent schol- arship. The book is a contribution to the literature on contemporary technology-based geopolitics, IR theory, and their attendant transforma- tions of the nature of international interaction, including the forms of global inequality, power dynamics, conflict, and cooperation. Minor parts v vi PREFACE of the book (in Chapters 5, 9, and 1 0) have been previously published and are partially reproduced here with permission from the editors of the outlets. Johannesburg, South Africa Bhaso Ndzendze Johannesburg, South Africa Tshilidzi Marwala Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 Theory in International Relations 15 3 Artificial Intelligence and International Relations 33 4 Realism and Artificial Intelligence 55 5 Liberalism and Artificial Intelligence 73 6 Hegemonic Stability Theory and Artificial Intelligence 87 7 Dependency and Technology in the 4IR 105 8 The English School and Artificial Intelligence 133 9 Critical IR Theories and Artificial Intelligence: Constructivistm, Postcolonialism, Feminism, and Green Theory 141 10 Conclusion 157 Index 163 vii Abbreviations 4GW Fourth Generation Warfare 4IR Fourth Industrial Revolution 5G Fifth Generation Connectivity AfDB African Development Bank AI Artificial Intelligence AIIB Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank AU African Union BERD Business Expenditure on Research and Development BRI Belt and Road Initiative CIA Central Intelligence Agency DFH Demand-Following Hypothesis DTI Development of Telecommunications Infrastructure EU European Union FBH Feedback Hypothesis FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product GERD Government Expenditure on Research and Development ICT Information and Communications Technology IDEA Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance IoT Internet of Things IPE International Political Economy IR International Relations IW Information Warfare LDC Less Developed Country MNC Multinational Corporation MNE Multinational Enterprise ix x ABBREVIATIONS NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NLH Neutrality Hypothesis NPT Non-Proliferation Treaty NTI Nuclear Threat Initiative OECD Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development OFDI Outward Foreign Direct Investment OSS Open Source Software PPP Purchasing Power Parity R&D Research and Development SDO Standards Development Organizations SME Small and Medium Enterprise STEM Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics STI Science, Technology and Innovation SLH Supply-Leading Hypothesis UKUSA UK, US and Australia WEF World Economic Forum WSIS World Summit on the Information Society WWI World War I WWII World War II List of Figures Fig. 2.1 Methods in articles by leading and regional IR journals surveyed (By authors. Data sourced from EJIR, IA, IO, JASIA, JIRD, and SAJIA journal archives) 24 Fig. 3.1 Taxonomy of AI (Source By authors) 34 Fig. 4.1 Overview of some major thinkers in the three realist strands (Source Authors) 60 Fig. 5.1 Proposed interaction of democratic peace thesis (constitutional constraints variant) and AI (e.g. DeepFakes) (Source Authors. See also Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technologies in International Relations [Ndzendze and Marwala 2021a, b]) 80 Fig. 5.2 Proposed automation-trade interdependence status quo disruption (Source Authors. See also Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technologies in International Relations [Ndzendze and Marwala 2021a, b]) 83 Fig. 6.1 Status quo power military expenditure and war outbreak correlation 92 Fig. 6.2 Status quo power AI military expenditure and war outbreak correlation (Source Authors) 98 Fig. 7.1 Denmark (Source Authors) 113 Fig. 7.2 Finland (Source Authors) 114 Fig. 7.3 Hong Kong, SAR (Source Authors) 114 Fig. 7.4 Luxembourg (Source Authors) 115 Fig. 7.5 Netherlands (Source Authors) 116 Fig. 7.6 Norway (Source Authors) 116 xi