Artificial Crime Analysis Systems: Using Computer Simulations and Geographic Information Systems

509 Pages·2008·8.51 MB·English

by  Lin Liu

Artificial Crime
Analysis Systems:
Using Computer
Simulations and Geographic
Information Systems
Lin Liu
University of Cincinnati, USA
John Eck
University of Cincinnati, USA
InformatIon scIence reference
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Artificial crime analysis systems : using computer simulations and geographic information systems / Lin Liu & John Eck, editors.
p. cm.
Summary: “This book discusses leading research on the use of computer simulation of crime patterns to reveal hidden processes of urban crimes,
taking an interdisciplinary approach by combining criminology, computer simulation, and geographic information systems into one comprehensive
resource”--Provided by publisher.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13: 978-1-59904-591-7 (hardcover)
ISBN-13: 978-1-59904-593-1 (ebook)
1. Crime analysis--Data processing. 2. Criminology--Computer network resources. 3. Digital mapping. 4. Information storage and retrieval
systems--Law enforcement. 5. Geographic information systems. I. Liu, Lin. II. Eck, John.
HV7936.C88A77 2008
364.0285--dc22
2007024488
British Cataloguing in Publication Data
A Cataloguing in Publication record for this book is available from the British Library.
All work contributed to this book set is original material. The views expressed in this book are those of the authors, but not necessarily of the pub-
lisher.
If a library purchased a print copy of this publication, please go to http://www.igi-global.com/reference/assets/IGR-eAccess-agreement.
pdf for information on activating the library's complimentary electronic access to this publication.
Table of Contents
Preface
An Overview of Crime Simulation / Lin Liu and John Eck ...............................................................xiv
Section I
The Role of Simulation in Crime Research
Chapter I
The Need for Systematic Replication and Tests of Validity in Simulation /
Michael Townsley and Shane Johnson ....................................................................................................1
Chapter II
Realistic Spatial Backcloth is not that Important in Agent Based Simulation Research:
An Illustration from Simulating Perceptual Deterrence / Henk Elffers and Pieter Van Baal ...............19
Chapter III
Visualization of Criminal Activity in an Urban Population / Alex Breuer, Joshua J. Hursey,
Tonya Stroman, and Arvind Verma .......................................................................................................35
Chapter IV
GIS-Based Simulation and Visualization of Urban Landuse Change / Md Mahbubur R. Meenar ......50
Section II
Streets, Networks, and Crime Distribution
Chapter V
Modelling Pedestrian Movement to Measure On-Street Crime Risk /
Spencer Chainey and Jake Desyllas .....................................................................................................71
Chapter VI
Core Models for State-of-the-Art Microscopic Traffic Simulation and Key
Elements for Applications / Heng Wei ..................................................................................................92
Chapter VII
Simulating Urban Dynamics Using Cellular Automata / Xia Li .........................................................125
Chapter VIII
Space-Time Measures of Crime Diffusion / Youngho Kim .................................................................140
Section III
Crime Event and Pattern Simulations
Chapter IX
Synthesis Over Analysis: Towards an Ontology for Volume Crime Simulation /
Daniel J. Birks, Susan Donkin, and Melanie Wellsmith .....................................................................160
Chapter X
Offender Mobility and Crime Pattern Formation from First Principles /
P. Jeffrey Brantingham and George Tita .............................................................................................193
Chapter XI
Crime Simulation Using GIS and Artificial Intelligent Agents /
Xuguang Wang, Lin Liu, and John Eck ...............................................................................................209
Chapter XII
Characterizing the Spatio-Temporal Aspects of Routine Activities and the Geographic
Distribution of Street Robbery / Elizabeth Groff ................................................................................226
Chapter XIII
Mastermind: Computational Modeling and Simulation of Spatiotemporal
Aspects of Crime in Urban Environments / P.L. Brantingham, U. Glässer, P. Jackson,
B. Kinney, and M. Vajihollahi .............................................................................................................252
Chapter XIV
The Simulation of the Journey to Residential Burglary / Karen L. Hayslett-McCall,
Fang Qiu, Kevin M. Curtin, Bryan Chastain, Janis Schubert, and Virginia Carver ..........................281
Chapter XV
Simulating Crime Against Properties Using Swarm Intelligence and Social Networks /
Vasco Furtado, Adriano Melo, André L.V. Coelho, Ronaldo Menezes, and Mairon Belchior ...........300
Chapter XVI
FraudSim: Simulating Fraud in a Public Delivery Program / Yushim Kim and Ningchuan Xiao .......319
Section IV
Criminal Justice Operation Simulations
Chapter XVII
Development of an Intelligent Patrol Routing System Using GIS and Computer Simulations /
Joseph Szakas, Christian Trefftz, Raul Ramirez, and Eric Jefferis .....................................................339
Chapter XVIII
Drug Law Enforcement in an Agent-Based Model: Simulating the Disruption
to Street-Level Drug Markets / Anne Dray, Lorraine Mazerolle, Pascal Perez, and Alison Ritter ....352
Chapter XIX
Using Varieties of Simulation Modeling for Criminal Justice System Analysis /
Azadeh Alimadad, Peter Borwein, Patricia Brantingham, Paul Brantingham,
Vahid Dabbaghian-Abdoly, Ron Ferguson, Ellen Fowler, Amir H. Ghaseminejad,
Christopher Giles, Jenny Li, Nahanni Pollard, Alexander Rutherford, and Alexa van der Waall .....372
Section V
Conclusion
Chapter XX
Varieties of Artificial Crime Analysis: Purpose, Structure, and Evidence in Crime Simulations /
John Eck and Lin Liu ..........................................................................................................................413
Compilation of References ..............................................................................................................433
About the Contributors ...................................................................................................................467
Index ...................................................................................................................................................479
Detailed Table of Contents
Preface
An Overview of Crime Simulation / Lin Liu and John Eck ...............................................................xiv
Section I
The Role of Simulation in Crime Research
Chapter I
The Need for Systematic Replication and Tests of Validity in Simulation /
Michael Townsley and Shane Johnson ....................................................................................................1
This chapter outlines how simulation methods might be used to make valid causal inferences in the social
sciences, specifically the study of crime. We argue that significant threats to validity exist for simulation
studies and that, if researchers do not actively take measures to minimize these, much of the promise
of simulation will not come to pass. Further, we nominate replication as a general method to facilitate
the generation of valid findings. It is anticipated, with the burgeoning interest in simulation methods in
criminology, that simulation studies will be published in sufficient detail that allows researcher scrutiny
and replication, with a view to developing a cumulative body of scientific knowledge.
Chapter II
Realistic Spatial Backcloth is not that Important in Agent Based Simulation Research:
An Illustration from Simulating Perceptual Deterrence / Henk Elffers and Pieter Van Baal ...............19
This chapter considers whether it is worthwhile and useful to enrich agent based spatial simulation stud-
ies in criminology with a real geographical background, such as the map of a real city? Using modern
GIS tools, such an enterprise is in principle quite feasible, but we argue that in many cases this course
is not only not producing more interesting results, but in fact may well be detrimental for the real rea-
son of doing criminal simulation studies, which is understanding the underlying rules. The argument is
first outlined in general, and then illustrated in the context of a given example of the ThESE perceptual
deterrence simulation model (Van Baal, 2004), a model that actually is using a simple checkerboard as
its spatial backcloth.
Chapter III
Visualization of Criminal Activity in an Urban Population / Alex Breuer, Joshua J. Hursey,
Tonya Stroman, and Arvind Verma .......................................................................................................35
Crime is a multidimensional complex and dynamic activity. In order to understand its nature one has to
comprehend not only its spatio-temporal dimensions but also the nature of crime, the victim-offender
relationship, and role of guardians and history of similar previous incidents. This is a formidable task due
to the limitations of present visualization methods. Both for the police department and criminal justice
researcher the need to visualize a vast amount of data is a pre-requisite to the task of dealing with the
crime phenomenon. This chapter presents an interactive visualization intended to present the viewer
with an accurate and intuitive view of the criminal activity in a cityscape. The technique employs many
different visualization elements, which taken together presents a useful methodology that can be used
to visualize many of the associated factors of crime. The chapter also presents the software technique
and discusses points for future investigation.
Chapter IV
GIS-Based Simulation and Visualization of Urban Landuse Change / Md Mahbubur R. Meenar ......50
This chapter introduces the use of geographic information systems simulations and visualizations in
urban landuse changes as a means of studying spatial pattern of crime incidents. Through literature re-
views the chapter provides a survey of different simulation tools and techniques that have been used in
landuse planning. It also provides an overview of the models available for examining landuse changes in
the context of planning processes. It argues that three-dimensional simulations of urban landuse change
scenarios encourage public participation in the decision making process. The author hopes that the chapter
would be useful for criminologists unfamiliar with landuse scenario simulation models and techniques.
Furthermore, the chapter suggests how the crime analysts could utilize the available landuse simulation
models and tools in analyzing existing crime patterns or predicting future patterns in an urban setting.
Section II
Streets, Networks, and Crime Distribution
Chapter V
Modelling Pedestrian Movement to Measure On-Street Crime Risk /
Spencer Chainey and Jake Desyllas .....................................................................................................71
This chapter presents results for the first large-scale analysis of street crime rates that utilizes accurate
on-street pedestrian population estimates. Pedestrian counts were generated at the street segment level
for an area in central London (UK) using a modeling process that utilized key indicators of pedestrian
movement and sample observations. Geocoded street crime positioned on street segments then allowed
for street crime rates to be calculated for the entire central London study area’s street network. These
street crime rate measures were then compared against street crime volume patterns (e.g., hotspot maps
of street crime density) and street crime rate statistics and maps that were generated from using the
residential population as the denominator. The research demonstrates the utility of pedestrian modeling
for generating better and more realistic measures for street crime rates, suggesting that if the residential
population is used as a denominator for local level street crime analysis it may only misinform and mislead
the interpretation and understanding of on-street crime risk to pedestrians. The research also highlights
the importance of crime rate analysis for understanding and explaining crime patterns, and suggests that
with accurate analysis of crime rates, policing, and crime prevention initiatives can be improved.
Chapter VI
Core Models for State-of-the-Art Microscopic Traffic Simulation and Key
Elements for Applications / Heng Wei ..................................................................................................92
This chapter summarizes fundamental models for microscopic simulation (such as vehicle generation
model and car-following model) and other critical models (such as lane-choice model, lane-changing
model, and route-choice model). Most of the critical models introduced in this chapter reflect the latest
research results by the author. The primary purpose of this chapter is to provide fundamentals for better
understanding of the travel behaviors that are modeled for traffic simulations. To facilitate the applica-
tions of traffic simulation models, several key elements for applying state-of-the-art computer traffic
simulation tools are summarized. They include the procedure for building models, model calibration
and validation. Further more, techniques for collecting vehicle trajectory data, critical elements used for
model calibration and validation, are also introduced.
Chapter VII
Simulating Urban Dynamics Using Cellular Automata / Xia Li .........................................................125
This chapter introduces the concepts of cellular automata (CA) which have been increasingly used for
simulating urban dynamics. Simulation and prediction of urban evolution can provide the useful inputs
to crime models. However, calibration of urban cellular automata is crucial for simulating realistic cit-
ies. Simulation of multiple land use changes using CA is difficult because numerous spatial variables
and parameters have to be utilized. The incorporation of neural networks with CA can alleviate the
calibration problems. This chapter illustrates how complex land use dynamics can be simulated by the
integration of CA and neural networks.
Chapter VIII
Space-Time Measures of Crime Diffusion / Youngho Kim .................................................................140
This study proposes methods for space-time diffusion measures and a simulation on crime analyses. A
spatial pattern of crimes is a constantly changing and ongoing process. However, prior research on spatial
crime analysis has focused primarily on identifying fixed spatial patterns, and has neglected temporal
aspects. As a result, the literature has difficulty in explaining the formation and development of such
spatial crime patterns. This study investigates both spatial and temporal aspects of crime occurrences,
particularly on the space-time diffusion process by using the temporal extensions of local spatial autocor-
relation measures. In addition, space-time diffusion simulation is applied based on Hagerstrand’s diffusion
modeling. Consequently, diffusion modeling and the simulation (1) enables further understanding of the
mechanism of how crime patterns are formed, (2) provides an in depth resource for policy makers and
police to reduce crimes by considering a temporal dimension of crime, (3) and is readily applicable to
other fields such as the epidemiology of disease.
Section III
Crime Event and Pattern Simulations
Chapter IX
Synthesis Over Analysis: Towards an Ontology for Volume Crime Simulation /
Daniel J. Birks, Susan Donkin, and Melanie Wellsmith .....................................................................160
This chapter examines the use of computer simulation, specifically agent-based modelling, as a tool
for criminologists and its potentially unique ability to examine, test, refine and validate criminological
theory. It suggests an approach to be taken by those working in this field, through the use of detailed
examples of the processes necessary to define, produce and populate both a simple model of general
offending and a more detailed model for domestic burglary. It further suggests methods for evaluating
such models, particularly calling for collaborative research and model replication. The authors hope that
this chapter will act as a step towards an accepted ontology for volume crime simulation.
Chapter X
Offender Mobility and Crime Pattern Formation from First Principles /
P. Jeffrey Brantingham and George Tita .............................................................................................193
Criminal opportunity in most cases is constrained by the fact that motivated offenders and potential
targets or victims are not found at the same place at the same time. This ecological fact necessitates that
offenders, potential victims, or both move into spatial positions that make crimes physically possible.
This chapter develops a series of simple mathematical and agent-based models looking at the relationship
between basic movement decisions and emergent crime patterns in two-dimensional environments. It
is shown that there may be substantial regularities to crime patterns, including the tendency for crime to
form discrete hotspots that arise solely from different movement strategies deployed by offenders.
Chapter XI
Crime Simulation Using GIS and Artificial Intelligent Agents /
Xuguang Wang, Lin Liu, and John Eck ...............................................................................................209
This chapter presents an innovative agent-based model for crime simulation. The model is built on the
integration of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. An
AI algorithm (reinforcement learning) is applied in designing mobile agents that can find their ways
on a street network. The multi-agent system is implemented as a Windows desktop program and then
loosely coupled with ESRI ArcGIS. The model allows users to create artificial societies which consist of