Arms and Conflict in the Middle East (Contributions to Conflict Management Peace Economics and Development)

273 Pages·2009·0.96 MB·English

by  Riad A. Attar

ARMS AND CONFLICT
IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Contributions to
Conflict Management, Peace Economics
and Development Volume 13
SERIES EDITOR
MANAS CHATTERJI
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Arms and Conflict in the Middle East, by Riad A. Attar
Contributions to
Conflict Management, Peace Economics
and Development Volume 13
ARMS AND CONFLICT
IN THE MIDDLE EAST
RIAD A. ATTAR
Murray State University, USA
United Kingdom – North America – Japan
India – Malaysia – China
Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley BD16 1WA, UK
First edition 2009
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ISSN: 1572-8323 (Series)
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CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES vii
LIST OF TABLES ix
FOREWORD xi
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
CHAPTER 2 THE POLITICAL ECONOMY 15
OF THE MIDDLE EAST
CHAPTER 3 ARAB ISRAELI CONFLICT 35
CHAPTER 4 ARMS IN THE MIDDLE EAST 65
CHAPTER 5 THEORIES AND MODELS 93
CHAPTER 6 THE MODEL 115
CHAPTER 7 DATA AND ESTIMATION 123
AND RESULTS
CHAPTER 8 CONCLUSION 167
REFERENCES 179
v
vi CONTENTS
APPENDIX A 191
APPENDIX B 241
APPENDIX C 249
SUBJECT INDEX 253
LIST OF FIGURES
Fig. 2.1 The Production Function Defense-Growth
Model Based on Easton (1965, p. 32). . . . .. . . . . . . . 24
Fig. 3.1 Zone of Agreement and Conflicts in
Bargaining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 37
Fig. 3.2 Nash Bargaining Solution of Israel versus
Egypt, Jordan, and the PNA. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 38
Fig. 3.3 Camp David Accord and Wadi Araba
AgreementZonesofConflictandAgreement
of Nash Bargaining Solution. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 54
Fig. 3.4 The Oslo Accords Zones of Conflict and
Agreement between Israel and the PNA. . .. . . . . . . . 59
Fig. 4.1 Egyptian, Jordanian, and Syrian Military
Expenditures from 1998 to 2006 in $US
Million (Constant Values). . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 79
Fig. 4.2 Pakistani Military Expenditures from 1960
to 2006 $US Million (Constant Values).. . .. . . . . . . . 87
Fig. 4.3 Indian Military Expenditures from 1960 to
2006 $US Billion (Constant Values). . . . . .. . . . . . . . 87
Fig. 7.1 TheImpactofPoliticalFreedom,Economic,
Military, and Non-Military Factors and
Their Externalities on Economic Growth.. .. . . . . . . 135
Fig. 7.2 The Impact of Institutional Freedom,
Economic, Military, and Non-Military
FactorsandTheirExternalitiesonEconomic
Growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . 136
Fig. 7.3 The Impact of Regime Type, Economic,
Military, and Non-Military Factors and
Their Externalities on Economic Growth.. .. . . . . . . 137
Fig. 7.4 The Impact of Regime Stability, Economic,
Military, and Non-Military Factors and
Their Externalities on Economic Growth.. .. . . . . . . 139
vii
viii LIST OFFIGURES
Fig. 7.5 The Impact of Regime Ideological Base,
Economic, Military, and Non-Military
FactorsandTheirExternalitiesonEconomic
Growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . 140
Fig. 7.6 The Impact of Internal Conflicts, Economic,
Military, and Non-Military Factors and
Their Externalities on Economic Growth.. .. . . . . . . 141
Fig. 7.7 TheImpactofExternalConflicts,Economic,
Military, and Non-Military Factors and
Their Externalities on Economic Growth.. .. . . . . . . 142
Fig. 7.8 The Impact of Total Conflicts, Economic,
Military, and Non-Military Factors and
Their Externalities on Economic Growth.. .. . . . . . . 144
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1 Cross-NationalTimeSeriesAnalysisResults
of Fifteen Middle Eastern Countries with
External and Internal Conflict as Control
Variables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 28
Table 4.1 Richardson’s Action-Reaction Model
Applied to Middle East (Eqs. (4.1 and 4.2)). . . . . . . . 69
Table 4.2 Algerian and Moroccan Military
Expenditures (Constant Values) in Million
$US, 1962 to 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 71
Table 4.3 Tunisian, Mauritanian, and Libyan Military
Expendituresfrom 1960 to 2006 in Constant
$US Million. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 74
Table 4.4 Egyptian, Jordanian, Syrian, and Israeli
Military Expenditures from 1974 to 1998 in
Constant $US Million Values . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 78
Table 4.5 Comparison of India and Pakistan Military
Capabilities in 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 86
Table 4.6 Saudi Arabian Military Expenditures from
1968 to 2006 in Constant $US Million. . . .. . . . . . . . 89
Table 4.7 Military Expenditures of Iran, Bahrain,
Kuwait, and the UAE from 1960 to 2004 in
$US Million (Constant Values) . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 91
Table 7.1 Summary of the Non-Linear Least Squares
Empirical Analysis Results . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . 133
Table 7.2 Summary of the Cross-National Time Series
of the Production Function with a Single
Political or Conflict Variable. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . 145
Table 7.3 SummaryoftheCNTSResultswithExternal
and Internal Conflicts as Control Variables . . . . . . . 148
ix