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ARGUMENTATION Drawing from the study of human reasoning, Argumentation describes different types of arguments and explains how they influ- encebeliefsandbehavior.RaymondS.Nickersonidentifiesmanyof thefallacies,biases,andotherflawsoftenfoundinargumentsaswell as “stratagems” (schemes, illogical and alogical tactics) that people regularly use to persuade others (or themselves). Much attention is giventotheevaluationofarguments.Asasourceforunderstanding and evaluating arguments in decision-making, it is ideal for courses oncognition,reasoning,andpsychology. raymond s. nickerson is retired from Bolt Beraneck and Newman Inc (BBN Systems and Technologies) where he was aseniorvicepresident.HewasthefoundingeditoroftheJournalof Experimental Psychology: Applied. He is now a Visiting Scientist at Tufts University, Massachusetts. He is a recipient of the Franklin V. Taylor Award from the American Psychological Association’s DivisionofAppliedExperimentalandEngineeringPsychology,and an Outstanding Career Achievement Award from Tufts Graduate School of Arts and Sciences and School of Engineering. The American Psychological Association established the Raymond S.NickersonBest PaperAward,to begivenannually,in hishonor. Argumentationishistenthbook. Books by the Author The Teaching of Thinking (with David N. Perkins and Edward E.Smith)-1985 UsingComputers:HumanFactorsinInformationSystems-1986 ReflectionsonReasoning-1986 LookingAhead:HumanFactorsChallengesinaChangingWorld-1992 PsychologyandEnvironmentalChange-2003 CognitionandChance:ThePsychologyofProbabilisticReasoning-2004 AspectsofRationality:ReflectionsonWhatitMeanstobeRationaland WhetherWeAre-2008 Mathematical Reasoning: Patterns, Problems, Conjectures and Proofs - 2010 Conditional Reasoning: The Unruly Syntactics, Semantics, Thematics andPragmaticsof“If”-2015 ARGUMENTATION The Art of Persuasion RAYMOND S. NICKERSON TuftsUniversity UniversityPrintingHouse,Cambridgecb28bs,UnitedKingdom OneLibertyPlaza,20thFloor,NewYork,ny10006,USA 477WilliamstownRoad,PortMelbourne,vic3207,Australia 314–321,3rdFloor,Plot3,SplendorForum,JasolaDistrictCentre, NewDelhi–110025,India 79AnsonRoad,#06–04/06,Singapore079906 CambridgeUniversityPressispartoftheUniversityofCambridge. ItfurtherstheUniversity’smissionbydisseminatingknowledgeinthepursuitof education,learning,andresearchatthehighestinternationallevelsofexcellence. www.cambridge.org Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781108835268 doi:10.1017/9781108892032 ©RaymondS.Nickerson2021 Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements, noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress. Firstpublished2021 AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. isbn978-1-108-83526-8Hardback isbn978-1-108-79987-4Paperback CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyof URLsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredtointhispublication anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchwebsitesis,orwillremain, accurateorappropriate. For Mia, Asher, Emmett, Ray, and their generation. Contents ListofFigure pageviii ListofTables ix Preface xi 1 Argumentation 1 2 TypesofArgument 16 3 EvaluatingArguments 70 4 Persuasiveness 102 5 Plausibility 135 6 Fallacies 164 7 Biases,Misconceptions,andtheLike 208 8 OtherFlawsandFoibles 263 9 Stratagems 291 10 ImprovingArgumentation 330 AppendixA 345 AppendixB 350 AppendixC 355 References 357 NameIndex 427 GeneralIndex 434 vii Figure 5.1 Illustratingpossiblerelationshipsbetween page141 p(A|C)andp(C|A) viii Tables 3.1 Rulesofassessmentinargumentativeinquiry page95 5.1 Illustratingthedifferencebetweenp(A|C)andp(C|A) 141 9.1 Performanceofumpiresintheaggregate 314 ix