Arctic Shipping in the Changing Climate

110 Pages·2015·8.13 MB·English

by  Vesa Vihanninjoki

REPORTS OF FINNISH ENVIRONMENT
INSTITUTE 41 | 2014
Arctic Shipping Emission in the
Changing Climate
Vesa Vihanninjoki
Finnish Environment Institute

REPORTS OF THE FINNISH ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE 41 | 2014

Arctic Shipping Emissions in the
Changing Climate

Vesa Vihanninjoki
REPORTS OF THE FINNISH ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE 41 | 2014
Finnish Environment Institute SYKE
Support for climate policy

Publication is available only in the Internet: www.syke.fi/julkaisut | helda.helsinki.fi/syke
ISBN 978-952-11-4408-0 (PDF)
ISSN 1796-1726 (Online)

2 Reports of the Finnish Environment Institute 41/2014
CONTENTS
Contents .................................................................................................................................................... 3
Preface ....................................................................................................................................................... 5
List of Abbreviations and Acronyms ...................................................................................................... 6
Suomenkielinen tiivistelmä ...................................................................................................................... 8
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................... 21
1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 34
2. A brief history of shipping in the Arctic........................................................................................... 37
2.1. Conquerors and endeavors ............................................................................................................. 37
2.2. Geographical and geopolitical issues ............................................................................................. 37
2.3. The recent development of the trans-Arctic marine traffic ............................................................ 39
3. Climate change in the Arctic ............................................................................................................. 40
3.1. Historical temperature record ......................................................................................................... 40
3.2. Arctic amplification and positive feedback .................................................................................... 42
3.3. The significance of air pollutant emissions .................................................................................... 43
3.4. Sea ice ............................................................................................................................................ 44
3.5. Future conditions ............................................................................................................................ 46
4. Shipping in the changing Arctic ........................................................................................................ 50
4.1. Influences caused by changing climate and sea ice conditions ...................................................... 50
4.2. The possible shipping potential in the Arctic: why the Arctic is so attractive? ............................. 50
4.2.1. Trans-Arctic passages .............................................................................................................. 51
4.2.2. Oil and gas ............................................................................................................................... 51
4.2.3. Minerals ................................................................................................................................... 53
4.2.4. Fishery ...................................................................................................................................... 53
4.2.5. Local community re-supply ..................................................................................................... 54
4.2.6. Tourism .................................................................................................................................... 54
4.3. Questions of governance—regional sovereignty and global power constellations ........................ 55
4.3.1. Regional sovereignty and the extent of local governance ........................................................ 55
4.3.2. An “industrial Mediterranean” ................................................................................................. 56
4.3.3. Actors in the Arctic .................................................................................................................. 56
4.3.4. The governance of Arctic shipping .......................................................................................... 57
4.4. How Arctic shipping may evolve? ................................................................................................. 58
4.4.1. The AMSA scenarios: an overview on the Arctic development .............................................. 58
4.4.2. Projections of Arctic shipping: possible new routes for growing maritime industry ............... 60
4.4.3. Focus on feasibility and economy ............................................................................................ 62
4.4.4. Sea ice conditions and the increasing access ........................................................................... 64
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4.5. The Arctic challenges of shipping .................................................................................................. 66
4.5.1. Sea ice ...................................................................................................................................... 67
4.5.2. Weather and other natural conditions ...................................................................................... 69
4.5.3. Infrastructure and technical issues ........................................................................................... 70
4.5.4. Icebreakers in the Arctic .......................................................................................................... 72
5. The emissions from shipping in the Arctic today and tomorrow ................................................... 75
5.1. Greenhouse gas emissions .............................................................................................................. 76
5.1.1. Global emissions ...................................................................................................................... 76
5.1.2. Arctic emissions ....................................................................................................................... 77
5.2. Air pollutant emissions .................................................................................................................. 78
5.2.1. Global emissions ...................................................................................................................... 79
5.2.2. Arctic emissions ....................................................................................................................... 82
5.2.3. Further analysis ........................................................................................................................ 82
5.3. Black carbon and its special relevance concerning the Arctic ....................................................... 85
5.3.1. General climatic mechanisms .................................................................................................. 85
5.3.2. Black carbon in the Arctic........................................................................................................ 86
5.3.3. Definition and measurement .................................................................................................... 87
5.3.4. The generation of BC emissions .............................................................................................. 89
5.3.5. Methods and technologies for gaining abatements .................................................................. 90
5.3.6. Emissions today and tomorrow ................................................................................................ 92
5.3.7. Probable implications of BC emissions ................................................................................... 95
6. Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................... 100
References ............................................................................................................................................. 101
Kuvailulehti .......................................................................................................................................... 103
Presentationsblad ................................................................................................................................. 104
Documentation page ............................................................................................................................. 105

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PREFACE
The report “Arctic Shipping in the Changing Climate” provides a review of issues relevant to shipping
in the Arctic waters. It discusses the climatic changes occurring in the Arctic, and studies what conse-
quences it might have on shipping emissions, among others black carbon.
The report was compiled as part of a project which supported the participation of Finnish experts and
officials to the work on short-lived climate forcers within the Arctic Council and its working groups.
The project provided focused and up-to-date information about issues like Arctic shipping (this report)
as well as small scale wood combustion (as part of the ACAPWOOD project under the ACAP working
group). The work was funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Finland via the IBA funding instru-
ment.

Helsinki, March 2015

Kaarle Kupiainen
Senior research scientist, PhD
Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
ACIA Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
AMSA Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment
AO Arctic Oscillation
BAU Business As Usual
BC Black Carbon
BLG Bulk Liquids and Gases
CH methane
4
CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5
CO carbon dioxide
2
DAS Double-Acting Ship
DEW Distant Early Warning
DPF Diesel Particulate Filter
DU Dobson Unit
DWT DeadWeight Tonnage
eBC equivalent Black Carbon
EC Elemental Carbon
ECA Emission Control Area
EEDI Energy Efficiency Design Index
EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone
EF Emission Factor
EGS Exhaust Gas Scrubber
EPR Eastern Polar Route
ESM Earth System Models
FRISBEE Framework of International Strategic Behaviour in Energy and Environment
FSICR Finnish-Swedish Ice Class Rules
FWS Fresh Water Scrubber
GHG GreenHouse Gas
HFO Heavy Fuel Oil
HiG High Growth
IMarEST Institute of Marine Engineering, Science and Technology
IMO International Maritime Organization
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
LAC Light Absorbing Carbon
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
M nautical mile
MARPOL International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships
MFR Maximum Feasible Reductions
MGO Marine Gas Oil
MSD Medium-Speed Diesel
μm micrometer
N O nitrous oxide
2
nm nanometer
NMVOC Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compound
NEP NorthEastern Passage
NO nitrogen oxide
x
NSR Northern Sea Route
NWP NorthWestern Passage
O ozone
3
OC Organic Carbon
OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
OW Open-Water
PC Polar Class
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PM Particulate Matter
ppb Parts-Per-Billion
pptv Parts-Per-Trillion by Volume
rBC refractory Black Carbon
RCP Representative Concentration Pathway
RF Radiative Forcing
SAR Search And Rescue
SLCF Short-Lived Climate Forcer
SLCP Short-Lived Climate Pollutant
SO sulfur dioxide
2
SO sulfur oxide
x
SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios
SSD Slow-Speed Diesel
SWIPA Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic
SWS Sea Water Scrubber
TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit
UNCLOS United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
WHO World Health Organization
WiFE Water in Fuel Emulsion
WPR Western Polar Route

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SUOMENKIELINEN TIIVISTELMÄ
1. Arktinen ilmasto muuttuu—muutoksen nopeus arktisella alueella on globaalia keskiarvoa
huomattavasti suurempi.
Lämpötilamittaukset osoittavat, että arktinen ilmasto on lämmennyt globaalia keskiarvoa nopeammin
ainakin yli vuosisadan ajanI. Tuoreemmat muutosnopeutta kuvaavat lukematII osoittavat, että ilmaston
lämpeneminen on sekä kiihtynyt että paikallisesti eriytynyt. Toisin sanoen lämpeneminen on yleisesti
ottaen nopeampaa, ja tämän lisäksi ero arktisen alueen ja globaalin keskiarvon välillä on kasvanut.
Kuva A. Havaitut muutokset arktisen alueen maa-asemien lämpötiloissa suhteessa vuosien 1961—1990 keskiar-
voon. Lähde: AMAP 2011b.
1980-luvulta alkaen arktisen alueen keskilämpötilan muutos on ollut kaksinkertaista globaaliin keskiar-
voon verrattunaIII, ja vuoden 2005 jälkeen mitatun viisivuotisjakson aikana arktisen alueen pintalämpö-
tilat ovat olleet korkeimmat koskaan mitatut (ks. Kuva A). Lisäksi paikalliset muutokset ovat arktisen
alueen keskiarvoa huomattavasti suurempia.
Muutokset eivät jakaudu tasaisesti ympäri vuoden, vaan ne keskittyvät vuodenaikojen mukaan. Lämpe-
neminen on merkittävintä syksyllä ja alkutalvella. Viimeisten kymmenen vuoden aikana syksyn ja tal-
ven lämpötilat ovat olleet Jäämerellä yli 4 °C vuosien 1951 ja 2000 välistä keskiarvoa korkeampia. Tä-
mänkaltainen lämpeneminen on ainutlaatuista maapallolla: vastaavia lukemia ei ole havaittu muualla
mihinkään vuodenaikaan.
Periodisten ilmastovaihteluiden—kuten arktisen oskillaation (AO)—tiedetään vaikuttavan arktisen alu-
een lämpötiloihin. Kuitenkin havaitut epäjohdonmukaisuudet arktisen oskillaation vaiheiden ja tosiasi-
assa mitattujen lämpötilojen välillä osoittavat, että viimeaikaisia arktisen alueen lämpöennätyksiä ei voi
selittää arktisen oskillaation avulla.
Myös pitkäaikaisempien luonnollisten periodisten vaihteluiden osuutta nyt havaitussa kehityksessä on
arvioitu. Kaiken kaikkiaan on silti selvää, että viimeaikaisen kaltainen lämpeneminen tarkoittaa merkit-
tävää muutosta huomattavan tasaisessa arktisessa lämpötilahistoriassa.

I Arktisten lämpötilojen tilastohistoria on hyvin rajallinen; arktisen alueen muutoskeskiarvo on vuosien 1900 ja
2003 väliselle ajalle 0,09 °C vuosikymmenessä, kun taas vastaava globaali keskiarvo on 0,06 °C
vuosikymmenessä.
II Viimeiset neljäkymmentä vuotta ajanjaksosta 1900—2003; muutosnopeudet tälle jaksolle ovat 0,40 °C
vuosikymmenessä arktisella alueella ja 0,25 °C vuosikymmenessä globaalisti.
III Noin 0,5 °C vuosikymmenessä.
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