arctic gas pipeline construction impacts on northern transportation

159 Pages·2003·3.21 MB·English

ARCTIC GAS
PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION IMPACTS

ON NORTHERN TRANSPORTATION
Cover page

PRO
The Van Horne Institute LOG

Canada Inc.

Prairie and Northern Region
January 2003

ARCTIC GAS
PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION IMPACTS
ON NORTHERN TRANSPORTATION

Prepared for:
Transport Canada
Prairie and Northern Region

Prepared by:
PROLOG Canada Inc.
Suite 1400, 444-5th Ave. SW
Calgary, Alberta T2P 2T8

In Association With:
The Van Horne Institute
For International Transportation and Regulatory Affairs
2500 University Drive NW
Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4
PRO Arctic Gas Pipeline Construction
LOG Impacts On Northern Transportation
Canada page 2

ARCTIC GAS
PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION IMPACTS
ON NORTHERN TRANSPORTATION

Table of Contents

1.0 SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION....................................................................................6
2.0 PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION SCENARIOS.........................................................................9
2.1 Alaska Highway Pipeline Route........................................................................................10
2.2 Mackenzie Valley Pipeline Route......................................................................................12
3.0 PERSONNEL MOVEMENT PLANS...................................................................................16
3.1 Project Passenger Transportation Systems........................................................................17
3.1.1 Alaska Highway Corridor Passenger System.............................................................17
3.1.2 Mackenzie Valley Corridor Passenger System...........................................................19
3.2 Pipeline Construction Personnel Logistics........................................................................20
3.2.1 Alaska Highway Pipeline Personnel Logistics..........................................................22
3.2.2 Mackenzie Valley Pipeline Personnel Logistics........................................................25
3.3 Passenger Transportation System Impacts.........................................................................27
3.3.1 Airport Infrastructure/Operations Impacts.................................................................32
3.3.2 Passenger Airlift Capacity Impacts............................................................................36
3.3.3 Surface Passenger Transport Impacts........................................................................37
4.0 MATERIAL MOVEMENT PLANS.....................................................................................38
4.1 Yukon Construction Material Logistics..............................................................................38
4.1.1 Foothills Pipe Lines 42” Pipeline Material Logistics................................................40
4.1.2 Alaska Gas Producers 52” Pipeline Material Logistics.............................................49
4.2 NWT Construction Material Logistics...............................................................................57
4.2.1 Delta Gas Producers 30” Pipeline Material Logistics................................................59
4.2.2 Alaska Gas Producers 52” Pipeline Materials Logistics............................................67
5.0 TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS IMPACTS......................................................................76
5.1 Yukon Transportation System Impacts..............................................................................77
5.1.1 Fort Nelson BC Rail/Truck Impact............................................................................83
5.1.2 Alaska Inside Passage Impact....................................................................................88
5.1.3 Yukon Highway System Impact................................................................................92
5.2 NWT Transportation System Impacts...............................................................................96
5.2.1 Hay River NWT Rail/Transfer Impact....................................................................105
5.2.2 NWT Marine System Impacts.................................................................................110
6.0 SUGGESTIONS AND CONCLUSIONS............................................................................114
6.1 Alaska Highway Pipeline Corridor..................................................................................115
6.2 Mackenzie Valley Pipeline Corridor...............................................................................118

Appendix
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LOG Impacts On Northern Transportation
Canada page 3

ARCTIC GAS
PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION IMPACTS
ON NORTHERN TRANSPORTATION

List of Maps

Map Page

1 Alaska Highway/Mackenzie Valley Pipeline Routes and Project Quantities 8
2 Northern Transportation Infrastructure for Arctic Gas Pipeline Construction 15
3 Arctic Gas Pipeline Construction Personnel Movement Operations 18
4 Foothills Pipe Lines 42" Pipeline Yukon/BC Project Logistics Operations 41
5 Alaska Gas Producers 52" Pipeline Yukon /BC Project Logistics Operations 50
6 Delta Gas Producers 30" Pipeline NWT Project Logistics Operations 60
7 Alaska Gas Producers 52" Pipeline NWT Project Logistics Operations 68
8 Alaska Highway Pipeline Corridor Transportation System Impact (Peak Year) 84
9 Mackenzie Valley Pipeline Corridor Transportation System Impact (Year 1) 103
10 Mackenzie Valley Pipeline Corridor Transportation System Impact (Year 2) 104
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LOG Impacts On Northern Transportation
Canada page 4

ARCTIC GAS
PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION IMPACTS
ON NORTHERN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS

List of Figures

Figure Page

1 Alaska Highway Pipeline Project Personnel Movement Forecast 29
2 Yukon Air Travel Impacts - Project Peak Year 29
3 Mackenzie Valley Pipeline Project Personnel Movement Forecast 31
4 NWT Air Travel Impacts - Winter Construction Season 31
5 Alaska Highway Pipeline Construction Yukon Logistics Schedule 39
6 Foothills Pipe Lines 42" Pipeline Materials Delivery Forecast 42
7 Alaska Gas Producers 52" Pipeline Materials Delivery Forecast 51
8 Mackenzie Valley Pipeline Construction NWT Logistics Schedule 58
9 Delta Gas Producers 30" Pipeline Materials Delivery Forecast 61
10 Alaska Gas Producers 52" Pipeline Materials Delivery Forecast 70
11 Alaska Inside Passage Ports vs. Fort Nelson Gateway Impacts 79
12 Construction Logistics Impacts on the British Columbia Railway 85
13 Yukon Transportation System Impacts on Inside Passage Access 88
14 Yukon Transportation System Total/Highway Impacts 93
15 NWT Northern vs. Southern Transportation Gateway Impacts 98
16 NWT Transportation System Impacts on the Mackenzie Northern Railway 105
17 NWT Transportation System Impacts on River Barge and Sealift Cargo 110
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LOG Impacts On Northern Transportation
Canada page 5

ARCTIC GAS
PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION IMPACTS
ON NORTHERN TRANSPORTATION

List of Tables
Table Page

1 Alaska Highway Pipeline Route Project Personnel Movements 28
2 Mackenzie Valley Pipeline Route Project Personnel Movements 30
3 Foothills Pipe Lines 42" Pipeline Project Logistics Operations (Yukon) 44
4 Foothills Pipe Lines 42" Pipeline Project Logistics Operations (BC) 45
5 Alaska Gas Producers 52" Pipeline Project Logistics Operations (Yukon) 53
6 Alaska Gas Producers 52" Pipeline Project Logistics Operations (BC) 54
7 Delta Gas Producers 30" Pipeline Project Logistics Operations (NWT) 63
8 Alaska Gas Producers 52" Pipeline Project Logistics Operations (NWT) 72
9 Year 2000 Inbound Yukon Freight Flows (Baseline) 77
10 Foothills Pipe Lines 42" Pipeline Yukon Transportation System Impacts 81
11 Alaska Gas Producers 42" Pipeline Yukon Transportation System Impacts 82
12 Year 2000 Inbound NWT Freight Flows (Baseline) 96
13 Delta Gas Producers 30" Pipeline NWT Transportation System Impacts 100
14 Alaska Gas Producers 52" Pipeline NWT Transportation System Impacts 101
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LOG Impacts On Northern Transportation
Canada page 6

ARCTIC GAS
PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION IMPACTS
ON NORTHERN TRANSPORTATION

1.0 SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION

The objective of this study is to assess the impact on northern transportation systems of logistics
requirements for arctic gas pipeline construction. That objective is met in two steps:
• First, Alaska Highway and Mackenzie Valley pipeline scenarios are identified for personnel
and material movement requirements along with sourcing, routing, timing and destination
delivery assumptions.

• Second, these construction logistics requirements are combined with baseline freight flows
into the Northwest Territories and Yukon to assess potential impacts on northern
transportation systems.

This report completes a uniquely comprehensive comparison of four major arctic gas pipeline
proposals from a northern transportation impact perspective:
• We have developed personnel and material movement data bases in a consistent approach
that facilitates accurate evaluation across all pipeline scenarios;

• We have integrated these project logistics requirements with baseline transportation flows
previously developed by PROLOG; and,

• We have time phased resulting Total Transportation System Impacts in generic “Project
Years” to allow ongoing assessment as construction timing is firmed up.

We have determined that despite massive manpower mobilization requirements, no project will
create unmanageable personnel movement problems. However, large-scale logistics operations
to complete project material movements within construction schedule constraints, pose the
potential for significant impacts.
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Map 1 shows the pipeline routes and material quantities that will move across the northern
transportation system under four project scenarios.

Generally, we summarize the potential impact of those material movements as follows:

• In Yukon, Alaska Highway Pipeline project logistics will primarily impact the highway
system and, especially in summer, project trucks may not mix well with tourists and other
travellers.
• In the Northwest Territories, Mackenzie Valley Pipeline project logistics will be constrained
by winter road and summer barge seasons, but the majority of material movements will be
from rail to river without a major highway impact.

Specifically, we predict the potential for project induced transportation bottlenecks as follows:

• At the Fort Nelson BC Rail/Truck Gateway a peak of up to 50 truckloads per day transferred
from BC Rail is anticipated.
• At the Hay River NWT Rail/Truck Gateway peak offloading between 24 and 44 railcars per
day and outloading between 2 and 5 barges per day is anticipated.

As well, we identify the following potential impacts from ocean vessel operations:

• At the Inside Passage Port of Skagway, offloading of Yukon destined project cargo may
conflict with over 400 cruise ship calls carrying some 600,000 passengers each summer.
• Along the Canadian Western Arctic Coast, between 20 and 40 deep draft Beaufort Sealift
vessels may be required to discharge project cargoes.

We conclude that overall Alaska Highway Pipeline project logistics impacts on the Yukon
transportation system are manageable. We also conclude that overall Mackenzie Valley Pipeline
project logistics impacts on the Northwest Territories transportation system are manageable at
the low end of the range as set by a Delta Gas project; but overwhelming at the high end of the
range as set by an Alaska Gas Pipeline project.
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LOG Impacts On Northern Transportation
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2.0 PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION SCENARIOS

A multitude of pipeline alternatives have been proposed to move Arctic Gas to southern markets.
We have selected the most prominent of these proposals to establish a range of transportation
system impacts within two principal pipeline corridors - the Alaska Highway Corridor and the
Mackenzie Valley Corridor.

In each pipeline corridor, we have analyzed two pipeline options for a total of four arctic gas
pipeline scenarios. Our logistics analysis is conducted without prejudice toward either corridor
and makes no assessment of the financial feasibility for any pipeline option.

The pipeline scenarios which set the scope of this assessment are:

• In the Alaska Highway Corridor
- Foothills Pipe Lines Proposal for a 42” Diameter Pipeline
- Alaska Gas Producers Proposal for a 52” Diameter Pipeline
• In the Mackenzie Valley Corridor
- Delta Gas Producers Proposal for a 30” Diameter Pipeline
- Alaska Gas Producers Proposal for a 52” Diameter Pipeline

Foothills Pipe Lines is currently updating plans for the Alaska Highway Gas Pipeline which it
originally proposed in accordance with the 1977 “Agreement on Principals” between the United
States and Canada (still in effect).

The Alaska Gas Producers Group completed a US$ 125 million study during 2001 which
compared both the Alaska Highway and Mackenzie Valley Corridors as alternate pipeline routes
for Alaska Gas.

The Delta Producers Group announced a CA$ 250 million permit application program in 2002 to
study the Mackenzie Valley route as follow-on to positive results from initial feasibility review.