Arctic Air Quality Modeling Study: Emissions Inventory

169 Pages·2014·6.74 MB·English

OCS Study
BOEM 2014-1001

Arctic Air Quality Modeling Study:
Emissions Inventory – Final Task Report

US Department of the Interior Eastern Research Group, Inc.
Bureau of Ocean Energy Management 8950 Cal Center Drive, Suite 325
Alaska OCS Region Sacramento, CA 95826
Arctic Air Quality Modeling Study-2012 Emissions Inventory and Future Year Projections

[Page Intentionally Left Blank]
OCS Study
BOEM 2014-1001

Arctic Air Quality Modeling Study:

Emissions Inventory – Final Task
Report

Prepared by:

Eastern Research Group, Inc.
8950 Cal Center Drive, Suite 325
Sacramento, CA 95826

Prepared under Contract Number M13PC00014 for:

U.S Department of Interior
Bureau of Ocean Energy Management
3801 Centerpoint Drive, Suite 500
Anchorage, AK 99503-5823

US Department of the Interior Eastern Research Group, Inc.
Bureau of Ocean Energy Management 8950 Cal Center Drive, Suite 325
Alaska OCS Region Sacramento, CA 95826

December 10, 2014
Arctic Air Quality Modeling Study-2012 Emissions Inventory and Future Year Projections
Disclaimer

This report has been reviewed by the BOEM and approved for publication. Approval
does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Service,
nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or
recommendation for use.

Citation

Fields Simms, P., R. Billings, M. Pring, R. Oommen, D. Wilson, and M. Wolf. 2014.
Prepared by Eastern Research Group, Inc., Sacramento, CA for U.S. Dept. of the Interior,
Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Alaska OCS Region, Anchorage, AK.
OCS Study BOEM 2014-1001. 169 pp.

Authors:

Paula Fields Simms
Richard Billings
Marty Wolf
Mike Pring
Regi Oommen
Darcy Wilson

Acknowledgements

This report would not have been possible without the contributions of the following staff at
Eastern Research Group: Roger Chang, Allison DenBleyker, Bebhinn Do, Joe Fanjoy, Brandon
Long, Janet Mangum, Heather Perez, Diane Preusse, Jennifer Sellers, Jody Tisano, and Stephen
Treimel.

Also, invaluable assistance was provided by the following individuals: Madeline Hickman
(Olgoonik Corporation, Wainwright); Karin Landsberg and Aaron Simpson (Alaska Department
of Environmental Conservation); Brad Smith (ConocoPhillips Alaska); Reid Smith and
Alejandra Castano (BP); Ken Slatton (North Slope Borough Public Works Department, Barrow);
Rick Sypek (Marine Exchange of Alaska); and, Edwin Tazruk (North Slope Borough Public
Works Department, Wainwright); and, members of the Arctic Air Quality Modeling Study
Science Review Group – Dr. David Allen, Dr. Brian Lamb, and Mr. Tom Moore.

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Arctic Air Quality Modeling Study-2012 Emissions Inventory and Future Year Projections

Table of Contents

Section Page

I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ I-1
A. Arctic AQ Modeling Study Purpose .................................................................. I-2
B. Emissions Inventory Objectives and Protocol .................................................... I-2
C. Emissions Inventory Scope ............................................................................... I-3
1. Baseline and Future Scenarios ............................................................... I-4
2. Pollutants .............................................................................................. I-4
3. Inventory Sources .................................................................................. I-5
4. Geographic Domain and Spatial Resolution ........................................... I-5
5. Temporal Resolution ............................................................................. I-8
D. Arctic AQ Modeling Study Emissions Inventory Development Team ............... I-8
E. Report Organization .......................................................................................... I-8
II. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE EMISSIONS INVENTORY ................................ II-1
A. Oil/Gas Related Sources ................................................................................... II-1
1. Seismic Survey Operations ................................................................... II-1
2. Exploratory Drilling ............................................................................. II-5
B. Non-Oil/Gas Related Sources ........................................................................... II-8
1. Commercial Marine Vessels ................................................................. II-8
2. Research Vessels ................................................................................ II-13
III. DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE EMISSIONS INVENTORY ................................ III-1
A. Oil/Gas Related Sources ................................................................................. III-1
1. Seismic Survey Equipment ................................................................. III-1
2. Exploratory Drilling ........................................................................... III-1
3. Oil and Gas Production ....................................................................... III-4
B. Airports, Aircraft, and Support Equipment ................................................... III-19
C. TransAlaska Pipeline System ....................................................................... III-22
1. TAPS Pump Stations ........................................................................ III-23
2. TAPS Fugitive Emissions ................................................................. III-23
3. Natural Gas Supply Line Fugitive Emissions .................................... III-23
4. Pigging Operations ........................................................................... III-24
5. TAPS Patrol Vehicles ....................................................................... III-24
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Arctic Air Quality Modeling Study-2012 Emissions Inventory and Future Year Projections
6. TAPS Pipeline Replacement and Repair ........................................... III-25
7. TAPS Aerial Surveillance ................................................................. III-25
D. Non-Oil/Gas Stationary Point, Area, and Mobile Sources ............................. III-26
1. Power Plants ..................................................................................... III-27
2. Industrial and Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion ................ III-28
3. Residential Fuel Combustion ............................................................ III-29
4. On-Road Motor Vehicles .................................................................. III-31
5. Nonroad Mobile Sources .................................................................. III-34
6. Road Dust......................................................................................... III-36
7. Waste Burning .................................................................................. III-38
8. Wastewater Treatment ...................................................................... III-39
9. Fuel Dispensing ................................................................................ III-39
IV. DEVELOPMENT OF EMISSIONS INVENTORY PROJECTIONS ......................... IV-1
A. Offshore Oil/Gas Related Sources .................................................................. IV-1
1. Survey Operations .............................................................................. IV-2
2. Exploratory Drilling ........................................................................... IV-6
3. Pipelaying and Associated Support Vessels ........................................ IV-8
4. Platform Construction....................................................................... IV-12
5. Platform Operation and Associated Support Vessels ......................... IV-15
6. Spills ................................................................................................ IV-20
B. Onshore Oil/Gas and Non-Oil/Gas Related Sources ..................................... IV-25
1. New Production Facilities ................................................................. IV-28
2. New Pipeline Construction and Operation ........................................ IV-30
3. Liberty Island Construction and Drilling ........................................... IV-30
C. Airports, Aircraft, and Supply Boat Terminal ............................................... IV-32
D. TransAlaska Pipeline System ....................................................................... IV-34
E. Non-Oil/Gas Stationary Point and Area Sources ........................................... IV-34
V. QUALITY ASSURANCE/QUALITY CONTROL ACTIVITIES ............................... V-1
A. Data Collection ............................................................................................... V-1
B. QA/QC Activities Implemented ...................................................................... V-2
1. Spreadsheets and Databases ................................................................. V-4
2. Documentation .................................................................................... V-4
3. Peer Review ........................................................................................ V-4
C. Blending/Merging of Sector Emissions Inventories ......................................... V-5
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Arctic Air Quality Modeling Study-2012 Emissions Inventory and Future Year Projections
VI. EMISSIONS INVENTORY RESULTS ..................................................................... VI-1
A. Baseline Emissions Inventory ........................................................................ VI-1
B. Emissions Inventory Projections .................................................................... VI-5
C. Emissions Inventory Uncertainty.................................................................... VI-9
1. Baseline Emissions Inventory Uncertainty and Recommendations ...... VI-9
2. Projection Emissions Inventory Uncertainty and Recommendations . VI-12
VII. REFERENCES ......................................................................................................... VII-1
APPENDIX A TECHNICAL REPORT: SUPPORTING DATA FOR ARCTIC AIR QUALITY
STUDY EMISSIONS INVENTORY ......................................................................... A-1

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Arctic Air Quality Modeling Study-2012 Emissions Inventory and Future Year Projections
List of Figures

Figure I-1. Regional Map Depicting OCS Planning Areas, including location of Arctic Air
Quality Impact Assessment Modeling Study ............................................................................ I-3
Figure II-1. Typical Seismic Survey ........................................................................................ II-1
Figure II-2. M/V Geo Arctic .................................................................................................... II-2
Figure II-3. Polar Prince ......................................................................................................... II-2
Figure II-4. 2012 Survey Vessel Activities .............................................................................. II-5
Figure II-5. Typical Jackup Rig ............................................................................................... II-5
Figure II-6. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Shipping Lanes and Development Sites (C1, C2, B1,
B2, B3, and B4) off the North Slope ...................................................................................... II-13
Figure III-1. North Slope Production Facilities ...................................................................... III-5
Figure III-2. Conoco’s CPF2 and Associated Well Pads ........................................................ III-5
Figure III-3. BP Gathering Center #2 .................................................................................... III-6
Figure III-4. Typical North Slope Well Pad ........................................................................... III-7
Figure III-5. BP Central Compression Plant .......................................................................... III-7
Figure III-6. Diagram of a Landing and Takeoff Cycle ........................................................ III-20
Figure III-7. North Slope Airport Locations and FAA Codes ............................................... III-20
Figure III-8. TAPS Pump Stations Located within the North Slope ..................................... III-23
Figure III-9. TAPS and Feeder Pipelines ............................................................................. III-25
Figure III-10. Locations of North Slope Villages ................................................................. III-27
Figure III-11. House in Wainwright .................................................................................... III-30
Figure III-12. Fuel Oil Forced Air Furnace in Wainwright (approximately 30 years old) ..... III-30
Figure III-13. 2012 Average Daily Traffic Count Statistics for Barrow ................................ III-32
Figure III-14. Snowmobiles in Front of a Barrow Residence ............................................... III-36
Figure III-15. Grader Leveling Barrow Unpaved Road ........................................................ III-36
Figure III-16. Eben Hopson Street, Barrow, and the Unpaved Road Surface ........................ III-36
Figure III-17. Open waste burning at Wainwright Landfill .................................................. III-38
Figure III-18. (Left) ASRC SKW Eskimos Gasoline Station in Barrow; (Right) Village Fuel
Pump in Wainwright ........................................................................................................... III-40
Figure IV-1. Offshore Projected Development Areas ............................................................ IV-2
Figure IV-2. Location of Projected Drilling Operations ......................................................... IV-6
Figure IV-3. S Lay Pipelaying Vessel Allseas’ Soltaire ......................................................... IV-8
Figure IV-4. DCI Dredge Aquarious ................................................................................... IV-10
Figure IV-5. Kaishuu .......................................................................................................... IV-10
Figure IV-6. Gravity Base System ....................................................................................... IV-12
Figure IV-7. Evaporative Emission Curves – Crude Oil ...................................................... IV-21
Figure IV-8. Evaporative Curves - Diesel Fuel .................................................................... IV-21
Figure IV-9. M/V Nanuq ..................................................................................................... IV-22
Figure IV-10. M/VAiviq ....................................................................................................... IV-22
Figure IV-11. Point Barrow Tug ......................................................................................... IV-23
Figure IV-12. Skimmer Boat ............................................................................................... IV-23
Figure VI-1. Baseline Emissions by Source – NO ................................................................ VI-2
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Figure VI-2. Baseline Emissions by Source – VOC ............................................................... VI-2
Figure VI-3. Baseline Emissions by Source – PM ............................................................... VI-3
10
Figure VI-4. Baseline Emissions by Source – PM .............................................................. VI-3
2.5
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Arctic Air Quality Modeling Study-2012 Emissions Inventory and Future Year Projections
Figure VI-5. Baseline Emissions by Source – CO e ............................................................... VI-4
2
Figure VI-6. Baseline Emissions by Source – HAPs .............................................................. VI-4
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Arctic Air Quality Modeling Study-2012 Emissions Inventory and Future Year Projections
List of Tables

Table I-1. Sources Included in the BOEM Arctic AQ Modeling Study Emissions Inventory .... I-6
Table II-1. Estimated Operating Hours for the 2012 ION Geophysical Seismic Survey ........... II-3
Table II-2. Seismic Survey Vessel Emission Factors (grams/kW-hr) ....................................... II-3
Table II-3. Calculated Offshore Drilling-Related Aviation Activity ......................................... II-8
Table II-4. Compilation of 2012 Commercial Marine Vessels Operating in the North Slope .... II-9
Table II-5. Summary of Commercial Marine Vessel Activity ................................................ II-10
Table II-6. CMV Criteria Pollutant Emission Factors (g/kW-hr) ............................................ II-12
Table II-7. Summary of 2012 Research Projects .................................................................... II-14
Table II-8. 2012 Research Vessel Activity Data .................................................................... II-15
Table III-1. North Slope Production Facilities ....................................................................... III-4
Table III-2. Oil and Gas Point Source Facilities in the 2011 NEI ......................................... III-10
Table III-3. Significant, Insignificant, and Nonroad Engine Emissions Analysis.................. III-11
Table III-4. HAP and Particulate Surrogate Assignments .................................................... III-12
Table III-5. Non-NEI Onshore Production Facilities ............................................................ III-13
Table III-6. GHGRP Data for Onshore North Slope Oil and Gas Facilities .......................... III-14
Table III-7. Subpart W Onshore Production Emissions (tons/yr) ......................................... III-15
Table III-8. North Slope Natural Gas Composition Data ...................................................... III-15
Table III-9. EPA Nonpoint Oil and Gas Emission Estimation Tool Categories .................... III-17
Table III-10. North Slope Oil and Gas Activity Data ........................................................... III-17
Table III-11. Sixteen Airports Located on the North Slope .................................................. III-21
Table III-12. Oil- and Gas-Related Helicopter Activity at Airports ...................................... III-22
Table IV-1. Full Build-Out Projections Scenario for Offshore Oil and Gas Activities ............ IV-3
Table IV-2. Projection Scenario for Seismic Survey Operations ............................................ IV-4
Table IV-3. Projection Scenario Seismic Survey Vessel Activity Data .................................. IV-4
Table IV-4. Projected Drilling Activity ................................................................................. IV-7
Table IV-5. Projected Offshore Pipeline Lengths (miles) ....................................................... IV-9
Table IV-6. Projected Pipelaying Activity Data ................................................................... IV-11
Table IV-7. Distances from Construction Sites to Projected Platform Sites .......................... IV-13
Table IV-8. Units, Operational Characteristics, and Activity Predicted for GSS Platform
Construction Vessels in the Arctic ....................................................................................... IV-13
Table IV-9. Average Criteria Pollutant Emissions per Well for Cook Inlet .......................... IV-17
Table IV-10. Average GHG Emissions per Well for Cook Inlet .......................................... IV-18
Table IV-11. Projected Number of On-platform and Subsea Production Wells .................... IV-18
Table IV-12. Projected Support Vessel Activity (kW-hr) Associated ................................... IV-19
with Platform Production .................................................................................................... IV-19
Table IV-13. Summary of Oil Spill Response Fleet and Operations ..................................... IV-24
Table IV-14. Projections Scenario for Onshore Sources ...................................................... IV-26
Table IV-15. Projected Airport Activities ............................................................................ IV-33
Table V-1. Data Gathering, Emission Estimation, and QA/QC Activities Implemented for the
Arctic AQ Modeling Study Emissions Inventory .................................................................... V-2
Table VI-1. Summary of Baseline Emissions – Criteria Air Pollutants (tons/yr) .................... VI-1
Table VI-2. Summary of Baseline Emissions – Greenhouse Gases (tons/yr) .......................... VI-1
Table VI-3. Summary of Baseline Emissions – Other Pollutants (tons/yr) ............................. VI-1
Table VI-4. Selected Baseline Emissions from Onshore Oil and Gas, by Source Category .... VI-5
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