Arab-Israeli Military Force in Era of Asymetric warfare

433 Pages·2006·4.57 MB·English

by  Anthony H. Cordesman

Arab-Israeli Military Forces
in an Era of
Asymmetric Wars
PraegerSecurityInternationalAdvisoryBoard
BoardCochairs
LochK.Johnson,RegentsProfessor ofPublicandInternationalAffairs,Schoolof
PublicandInternationalAffairs,UniversityofGeorgia(U.S.A.)
PaulWilkinson,ProfessorofInternationalRelationsandChairmanoftheAdvisory
Board,CentrefortheStudyofTerrorismandPoliticalViolence,UniversityofSt.
Andrews(U.K.)
Members
EliotA.Cohen,RobertE.OsgoodProfessorofStrategicStudiesandDirector,Philip
MerrillCenterforStrategicStudies,PaulH.NitzeSchoolofAdvancedInternational
Studies,TheJohnsHopkinsUniversity(U.S.A.)
Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh A.Burke Chair inStrategy, CenterforStrategic
andInternationalStudies(U.S.A.)
The´re`se Delpech, Senior Research Fellow, CERI (Atomic Energy Commission),
Paris(France)
Sir MichaelHoward,formerProfessor ofHistory ofWar, OxfordUniversity,and
ProfessorofMilitaryandNavalHistory,YaleUniversity(U.K.)
LieutenantGeneralClaudiaJ.Kennedy,USA(Ret.),formerDeputyChiefofStaff
forIntelligence,Headquarters,DepartmentoftheArmy(U.S.A.)
PaulM.Kennedy,J.RichardsonDilworthProfessorofHistoryandDirector,Inter-
nationalSecurityStudies,YaleUniversity(U.S.A.)
RobertJ.O’Neill,formerChicheleProfessoroftheHistoryofWar,AllSoulsCol-
lege,OxfordUniversity(Australia)
Shibley Telhami, AnwarSadat Chairfor Peaceand Development,Department of
GovernmentandPolitics,UniversityofMaryland(U.S.A.)
JusufWanandi,co-founderandmember,BoardofTrustees,CentreforStrategicand
InternationalStudies(Indonesia)
FareedZakaria,Editor,NewsweekInternational(U.S.A.)
Arab-Israeli Military
Forces in an Era of
Asymmetric Wars
Anthony H. Cordesman
PublishedincooperationwiththeCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies,
Washington,D.C.
PraegerSecurityInternational
Westport,Connecticut London
(cid:127)
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Cordesman,AnthonyH.
Arab-Israelimilitaryforcesinaneraofasymmetricwars/AnthonyH.Cordesman.
p.cm.
‘‘PublishedincooperationwiththeCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies,Washington,D.C.’’
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN0–275–99186–5(alk.paper)
1. Israel—ArmedForces.2. Arabcountries—ArmedForces.3. MiddleEast—ArmedForces.4.
Asymmetricwarfare—MiddleEast. I.Title.
UA832.C6652006
355.00956—dc22 2006018359
BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationDataisavailable.
Copyright©2006byCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies
Allrightsreserved.Noportionofthisbookmaybe
reproduced,byanyprocessortechnique,withoutthe
expresswrittenconsentofthepublisher.
LibraryofCongressCatalogCardNumber:2006018359
ISBN:0–275–99186–5
Firstpublishedin2006
PraegerSecurityInternational,88PostRoadWest,Westport,CT06881
AnimprintofGreenwoodPublishingGroup,Inc.
www.praeger.com
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
Thepaperusedinthisbookcomplieswiththe
PermanentPaperStandardissuedbytheNational
InformationStandardsOrganization(Z39.48–1984).
10987654321
Contents
ILLUSTRATIONS xi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xv
1.INTRODUCTION 1
PEACEAGREEMENTSANDTHEIRIMPACTONCONVENTIONALWARFIGHTING 3
ASHIFTTOWARDASYMMETRICWARFAREANDWARSOFATTRITION 5
THEPROBLEMOFPROLIFERATION 8
THEGROWINGIMPORTANCEOFINTERNALSECURITYTHREATS 8
2.MAJORTRENDSINFORCESTRENGTH 11
THEIMPORTANCEOFFORCEQUALITYVS.FORCEQUANTITY 11
LOOKINGATASNAPSHOTOFTOTALFORCES 12
COMPARATIVEMANPOWERQUANTITYANDQUALITY 18
COMPARATIVELANDFORCESTRENGTH 23
ComparativeLandForceManpower 23
VaryingMixesofArmorandAntitankWeapons 26
VaryingMixesofArtilleryandAntiaircraftWeapons 32
COMPARATIVEAIRSTRENGTH:QUALITYOVERQUANTITY 37
ComparativeAirForceStrength 37
ComparativeLand-BasedAirDefenseForces 46
COMPARATIVENAVALSTRENGTH:PERIPHERALMISSIONS 47
3.TOTALRESOURCES:RECAPITALIZATION,FORCE
MODERNIZATION,ANDIMPACTONEFFECTIVENESS 50
COMPARATIVETRENDSINMILITARYEXPENDITURES 51
COMPARATIVETRENDSINARMSIMPORTS 53
vi CONTENTS
4.THEMILITARYFORCESOFISRAEL 63
ASYMMETRICWARSOFATTRITION 65
TheThreatfromProliferation 66
SHIFTINGFROMACONVENTIONALTOANASYMMETRICEDGE 67
IsraeliApproachestoAsymmetricWarfare 69
RubberBullets 70
HouseDemolitions 71
UrbanWarfare 73
TargetedAssassinations 74
DealingwithRoadsideAttacksandRetaliation 75
AttacksonSettlementsandtheIDFResponse 76
GroundRaidsbytheIDF 76
DrivesintotheGazaStripandtheWestBank 78
UseofLarge-ScaleArrests 79
AttackingandIsolatingthePalestinianLeadership 80
UseofAirPower 81
IsraeliUseofHelicoptersandAircraft 82
CounteringPalestinianArmsSmugglingandManufacturing 84
WITHDRAWALFROMTHEGAZASTRIPANDTHEWESTBANK 85
Separation,SecurityBarriers,andthe‘‘Fence’’ 86
WhattheBarrierSeemstoMean 89
BARRIER,BOUNDARY,ORBORDER? 91
BadFencesMakeBadNeighbors? 92
ADAPTINGWHILERETAININGCONVENTIONALMILITARYSTRENGTHS 93
TrendsinManpowerandTotalForceStrength:Activevs.ReserveForces 96
The‘‘Kela2008Plan’’ 99
Kushet(Rainbow)Plan 100
ISRAELILANDFORCES 101
LandForceTransformation 105
CommandandControlChanges 105
MainBattleTanks 107
OtherArmor 109
AntitankWeapons 110
Up-ArmoringLighterVehiclesandSupportForces 110
ArtilleryForces 111
AsymmetricWarfareCapabilities 112
OtherAspectsofLandForceDevelopment 113
ISRAELIAIRFORCES 114
ModernAirOperationsAreJointOperations 118
AirDefenseandAir-to-AirCombatCapability 119
AirOffenseandAir-to-GroundCombatCapability 120
IAFReadinessandTrainingStandards 121
CurrentSuperiorityandFutureChallenges 122
CONTENTS vii
ISRAELILAND-BASEDAIRDEFENSES 122
C4I/BMandSensorSystems 124
Short-RangeAirDefenseSystems 124
ReadinessandEffectiveness 125
ISRAELINAVALFORCES 125
SurfaceFleetDevelopments 125
SmallerSurfaceShips 128
SubmarineForces 129
AmphibiousForces 130
NavalAviation 130
TheNavy’sRoleinAsymmetricWarfare 130
NavalReadinessandMissionCapability 131
ISRAEL’SCOUNTERTERRORISMANDINTERNALSECURITYFORCES 132
IsraeliCapabilities 134
IsraeliTerroristGroups 135
InternalSecurityvs.HumanRightsandPoliticalImpacts 136
ISRAELIWEAPONSOFMASSDESTRUCTION 140
IRANASAWILDCARD 148
POSSIBLEIRANIANRESPONSE 151
SHIFTSINISRAELISTRATEGICNUCLEARFORCES 152
SHIFTSINISRAELIMISSILEDEFENSES 153
ISRAEL’SCONTINUINGSTRATEGICCHALLENGES 153
5.THEMILITARYFORCESOFEGYPT 157
FORCESIZEVS.FORCEQUALITY 158
EGYPTIANLANDFORCES 160
ForceStructureandMajorDeployments 162
MainBattleTanksandOtherArmor 162
OtherArmoredForces 167
AntitankWeapons 167
Artillery 168
AirDefenseForces 168
ReadinessandModernization 169
EGYPTIANAIRFORCES 169
CombatAirStrength 170
Force‘‘Enablers’’andTransportAircraft 170
OngoingForceImprovements 173
ReadinessandMissionCapabilities 174
EGYPTIANLAND-BASEDAIRDEFENSES 174
EgyptianForceStructure 175
ModernizationandUpgrades 175
Short-RangeAirDefenses 177
ReadinessandMissionCapability 177
viii CONTENTS
EGYPTIANNAVALFORCES 178
SubmarineForces 178
MajorSurfaceForces 182
MissilesandOtherPatrolCraft 183
MineWarfareCapability 183
AmphibiousForces 184
CoastalDefenseForces 184
NavalAviation 184
ReadinessandMissionCapability 184
EGYPTIANPARAMILITARY,SECURITY,ANDINTELLIGENCEFORCES 185
KeyEgyptianSecurity,Intelligence,andParamilitaryForces 185
MajorInternalSecurityThreats 188
InternalSecurityvs.HumanRightsandPoliticalImpacts 192
EGYPTIANWEAPONSOFMASSDESTRUCTION 195
EGYPT’SCONTINUINGSTRATEGICCHALLENGES 199
TheSinaiContingency 200
TheNewSecurityMissionintheGazaStrip 203
Egypt’sOtherStrategicChallenges 205
6.THEMILITARYFORCESOFJORDAN 208
TRENDSINJORDANIANFORCEDEVELOPMENT 210
JORDANIANMANPOWER 213
JORDANIANARMY 214
TheJordanianArmyCommandStructure 214
JordanianMainBattleTanks 218
JordanianOtherArmoredVehicles 219
JordanianAntitankWeapons 219
JordanianArtillery 219
JordanianAntiaircraft 220
JordanianArmyReadinessandEffectiveness 220
JORDANIANAIRFORCE 221
Fixed-WingAirUnits 221
Rotary-WingAirUnits 223
JORDANIANLAND-BASEDAIRDEFENSES 224
JORDANIANNAVALFORCES 224
JORDANIANPARAMILITARY,SECURITY,ANDINTELLIGENCEFORCES 225
MajorTerroristandExtremistThreats 227
JordanianCounterterrorism 228
Securityvs.Reform 230
JORDAN’SCONTINUINGSTRATEGICCHALLENGES 232
JordanianSupportofPalestinianForcesintheWestBank,Jerusalem, 232
andIsrael
Jordanian‘‘Rescue’’ofPalestiniansintheWestBank 233
CONTENTS ix
JordanianCooperationwithSyria 234
Jordan’sCurrentSecurityChallenges 236
7.THEMILITARYFORCESOFLEBANON 238
THESYRIANFACTOR 239
LEBANESESECURITYAFTERSYRIANWITHDRAWAL 240
THETRENDSINLEBANESEFORCES 241
THELEBANESEARMY 242
MajorCombatEquipment 243
TrainingandReadiness 247
THELEBANESEAIRFORCE 248
LEBANESENAVALFORCES 249
LEBANESEPARAMILITARYFORCESANDHEZBOLLAH 250
NonstateForces:Hezbollah 254
NonstateForces:Asbatal-Ansar 263
TheRoleoftheLebaneseSecurityForces 264
LEBANON’SCONTINUINGSTRATEGICCHALLENGES 266
8.THEMILITARYFORCESOFPALESTINE 268
THEOSLOACCORDSANDTHENEWISRAELI-PALESTINIANWAR 271
THEDEATHOFARAFATANDTHEVICTORYOFHAMAS:REDEFINING 272
PALESTINIANPOLITICSANDTHEARAB-ISRAELIMILITARYBALANCE
HAMASCOMESTOPOWER 273
THECHANGINGSTRUCTUREOFPALESTINIANAUTHORITYFORCES 274
PalestinianAuthorityForcesduringthePeaceProcess 274
TheImpactoftheIsraeli-PalestinianWar 276
TheUncertainSizeofCurrentPalestinianAuthoritySecurityForces 278
PALESTINIANSECURITYFORCESANDINTERNALSECURITYINTHEGAZASTRIP 281
ANDTHEWESTBANK
PALESTINIANMILITANTORGANIZATIONSANDTHEIRMILITARYIMPACT 287
TheDifferingCharacterofPalestinianMilitantGroups 294
HamasorHarakatAl-MuqawwamaAl-Islamia(IslamicResistance 295
Movement)
IslamicJihad 310
FatahTanzim(‘‘Organization’’) 315
Al-AqsaMartyrs’Brigades 316
SmallerMilitantGroups 320
PALESTINIANAPPROACHESTOASYMMETRICWARFARE 322
SuicideBombings 322
MortarsandRockets 324
PoliticalWarfareandWeaponsofMassMedia 326
PALESTINIANSTRATEGICCHALLENGES 328
9.THEMILITARYFORCESOFSYRIA 330
LEBANONANDSYRIA’SPROXYWARWITHISRAEL 331