Arab Horizon 2030: Prospects for Enhancing Food Security in the Arab Region

188 Pages·2017·13.8 MB·English

Arab Horizon 2030: Prospects for Enhancing Food Security
in the Arab Region
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
E/ESCWA/SDPD/2017/1
Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)
Arab Horizon 2030:
Prospects for Enhancing Food Security
in the Arab Region
United Nations
Beirut
© 2017 United Nations
All rights reserved worldwide
Photocopies and reproductions of excerpts are allowed with proper credits.
All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the
United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA),
e-mail: [email protected].
The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the authors
and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its officials or Member States.
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the
expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status
of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its
frontiers or boundaries.
Links contained in this publication are provided for the convenience of the reader and are correct at
the time of issue. The United Nations takes no responsibility for the continued accuracy of that
information or for the content of any external website.
References have, wherever possible, been verified.
Mention of commercial names and products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations.
References to dollars ($) are to United States dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures.
Mention of such a symbol indicates a reference to a United Nations document.
United Nations publication issued by ESCWA, United Nations House,
Riad El Solh Square, P.O. Box: 11-8575, Beirut, Lebanon.
Website: www.unescwa.org.
Photo credits:
Cover: ©kasto — Fotolia
Page 1: ©FAO/Abdelhak Senna
Page 11: ©Susana Perez/Shutterstock
Page 23: ©Nice_Media_PRODUCTION/Shutterstock
Page 35: ©WFP-Fares_Khoailed_0011
Page 53: ©ESCWA/Minerva-Sadek
Page 73: ©robert paul van beets/Shutterstock
Page 91: ©FAO/Jonathan Bloom
Page 103: ©ESCWA/Minerva-Sadek
Acknowledgments
This report is the result of the combined efforts The Medium-term Outlook and Market Analysis
of the Economic and Social Commission for Team, Trade and Markets Division, FAO
Western Asia (ESCWA) and the Food and Headquarters, consisted of Holger Matthey
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (team leader), Sergio René Araujo Enciso,
(FAO). Contributions have come from both Eduard Bukin, Emily Carroll, Jiyeon Chang,
organizations as well as from sustainable Merritt Cluff, Hannah Fried and Jorge Soguero.
development and food security experts and
practitioners. Special thanks go to the Authors of background papers were Marie
individuals listed below and to ESCWA division Therese Abi Saab (agricultural production and
directors, publications committee and staff productivity), Fidele Byiringiro (food loss and
from substantive divisions for their comments waste), Talal Darwish and Ali Fadel (land
and feedback. degradation), Panos Konandreas (status of food
security and trade), Musa McKee (technology)
The ESCWA project team, Sustainable and Christopher Ward (agriculture and
Development Policies Division, consisted of natural resources).
Roula Majdalani, Director; Reem Nejdawi,
Chief; and Fidele Byiringiro, Economic Input on food consumption and nutrition
Affairs Officer. security was provided by Rachel Bahn, Nahla
Hwalla, Martin Keulertz and Sibelle el Labban,
The FAO project team, Regional Office for Near American University of Beirut (AUB).
East and North Africa (FAO-RNE), consisted of
Abdessalam Ould Ahmed, Assistant Director Input on economic access to food in the Middle
General, Regional Representative; David Sedik, East and North Africa was provided by Dipayan
Senior Policy Officer; and Mohamed Ahmed, Bhattacharyya, Muriel Calo and Mariko
Policy Officer. Kawabata, World Food Programme Regional
Bureau (WFP Cairo).
Project coordinator was Mohamed al-Hamdi,
First Economic Affairs Officer, ESCWA. External peer reviewers were Mahmoud
Halablab, Professor, Faculty of Science, Rafik
Lead authors were Mohamed Ahmed, Hariri University, Lebanon; Mahmoud Medany,
Mohamed al-Hamdi, Panos Konandreas, Reem Chairman, Agricultural Research Centre, Egypt;
Nejdawi, Susan Razzaz and David Sedik. Rabi Mohtar, Professor, Biological and
Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M
Contributing authors were Holger Matthey and University, United States; Nabeel Saad, Director,
Christopher Ward. Planning and Agricultural Economics
iv
Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, Programme, Egypt; Salah Abdelgadir Hassan,
the Sudan; and Abdul Karim Sadik, Senior Director, Agricultural Integration and Food
Economic Adviser, Kuwait Fund for Arab Security Department, Arab Organization for
Economic Development, Kuwait. Agricultural Development, the Sudan;
and Rami Zurayk, Steering Committee member,
Discussants and participants at the report High-level Panel of Experts on Food
review meeting were Khalid Nahar Alrwis, Security and Nutrition.
Department Head, Agricultural Economics,
King Saud University, Saudi Arabia; Elie Technical and administrative support was
Choueiri, Programme Associate, FAO Office, provided by Mona Fattah, Lara Geadah,
Lebanon; Karl-Oscar Anders Ekdahl, Kamil Hamati, Moneem Murrah, Minerva Sadek
Programme Policy Officer, World Food and Rita Wehbe, ESCWA.
Foreword
The adoption of the 2030 Development Agenda, receded in non-conflict countries. Several
and its associated 17 Sustainable Development countries in the region have succeeded in
Goals (SDGs) in 2015 renewed global implementing policies that put agriculture on
commitment to implement a transformative the path of structural transformation with
agenda that aims to achieve economic, social positive outcomes in terms of food exports and
and environmental progress in an integrated poverty reduction.
and sustainable manner by building on regional
and local specificities, while promising to leave Looking ahead, and despite these commendable
no one behind. At the centre of the new efforts, there remain major concerns over food
development agenda is the issue of sustainable security in the region. Physical and economic
agriculture and food security, which is of high productivity of natural resources remain
concern for the Arab region, particularly in the relatively low, and the region continues to be
light of the food crisis of the last decade. highly dependent on the vagaries of global food
markets. Alternative projections to the 2030
The Arab region is faced with many challenges horizon based on plausible scenarios and
that include scarce and dwindling natural assumptions point to a slightly brighter future
resources amid growing demand as populations for local production though the region will
increase and become more affluent, and continue to depend heavily on food imports to
protracted sociopolitical crises including wars meet its needs, which may prove increasingly
and occupation, the occurrence and impact of challenging for the least developed countries of
which are expected to worsen with the advent the region.
of climate change. Embedded in these
challenges are issues such as rising inequalities, The present report provides a deep and
distress migration, mismanagement of comprehensive review of the prevailing food
resources and wasteful practices, which hamper and agriculture situation of the Arab region
the achievement of sustainability in general and together with alternative outcomes for the
food security in particular. future. It was put together through a partnership
between the United Nations Economic and
Countries in the region have generally kept food Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)
security high on their agenda. As a result, and the Regional Office for the Near East (RNE)
14 Arab countries achieved the target set by of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the
Millennium Development Goal 1 to halve the United Nations (FAO). Our two organizations are
proportion of individuals suffering from hunger tirelessly working to support our respective
during the period 1990-2015. Food production members in achieving greater food security by
and per capita dietary energy supply have addressing rising challenges, implementing
continuously increased and malnutrition has innovative strategies and programmes and
vi
adopting sound policies for the sustainable food security and sustainable development in
management of the region’s natural resources. the Arab region not only for decision makers
committed to ensuring the continued well-being
It is hoped that this report will enhance of the Arab population, but also for the public at
evidence-based policy dialogue on issues of large including civil society and the media.
Mohamed Ali Alhakim José Graziano da Silva
Under-Secretary-General, Executive Secretary Director-General
Economic and Social Commission Food and Agriculture Organization
for Western Asia (ESCWA) of the United Nations (FAO)
Executive Summary
Food security is universally recognized as This publication hopes to inform the debate
paramount to human well-being. But what regarding the status of food security in Arab
exactly does it mean, and what is required to countries and policy options for enhancing food
achieve food security? A comprehensive security in the future, noting the overarching
definition put forward by the World Food directions of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Summit in 1996 holds that “food security [is] Development. Given the heterogeneity of the
a situation that exists when all people, at all Arab region,2 both in terms of natural
times, have physical, social1 and economic endowment, particularly in water resources, and
access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food economic capability, the analysis in the report
that meets their dietary needs and food divides the region into four subregions, each
preferences for an active and healthy life”. consisting of a number of more homogeneous
This definition is useful, in that it points to countries. These are: the Gulf Cooperation
the wide range of factors that need to be in Council (GCC) subregion (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman,
place for a person to be food secure. First, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates),
food must be available in the country, the Mashreq subregion (Egypt, Iraq, Jordan,
through domestic production, import, Lebanon, State of Palestine and Syrian Arab
or both. Second, households must have Republic), the Maghreb subregion (Algeria, Libya,
access to food, which entails both the need Morocco and Tunisia) and the least developed
for food to physically reach markets and the countries (LDC) subregion (the Comoros, Djibouti,
financial ability of consumers to afford buying Mauritania, Somalia, the Sudan and Yemen).
food. Third, individuals must consume a
sufficient quantity and appropriate quality of Part I of the report provides a broad overview of
food, and be healthy enough to metabolize that food security in the Arab region, including
food. Furthermore, all of these aspects must be availability, access and utilization of food. Issues
stable over time. of stability come into play in all three of these
areas. Part II of the study provides an in-depth
Food security is a complex subject, involving analysis of selected thematic issues, namely
a wide range of areas of study, including agriculture, international food trade, and food
agriculture, economics, politics, sociology and loss and waste. In order to give a sense of the
human physiology. Moreover, food security is implications of food security issues on the future,
complex in terms of the multiple lines of chapter 7 in Part II is devoted to descriptions of
causality involved. For example, domestic the likely future if the region were to maintain its
agricultural production plays a role in food present trajectory, as well as the potential
availability, but also in terms of access, because impacts of actions to increase yields, shift to
agriculture is the primary source of income for healthier consumption patterns, and establish
many of the poorest households. and maintain strategic food stocks.
viii
Part I: The big picture of food security
by 2050 close to 70 per cent of the region’s
in the Arab region
population will be living in cities. Despite
variations throughout the region, even the LDCs
Expanding populations are increasingly are expected to become predominantly urban
reliant on imports by 2050. Urbanization has a dramatic impact on
food security, in terms of changes in livelihoods
Food availability is defined as sufficient and lifestyles, as well as land use.
quantities of food of appropriate quality,
supplied through domestic production or The combination of increasing population and
imports, including food aid. At the broadest urbanization implies rapidly increasing food
level, food availability is measured by the consumption, but domestic production is
Average Dietary Energy Supply Adequacy not keeping pace. The region’s yields have
(ADESA), expressed as the ratio of dietary always been relatively low due to geoclimatic
energy supply to dietary energy required. characteristics, and little improvement has been
The ADESA for the Arab region is about 134 made over time. For most food commodities,
per cent, indicating that the region, taken as a production has leveled off since the 1990s while
whole, has considerably more food than is consumption has kept its ever-increasing trend,
required for its population to have a healthy and and the gap between the two is widening.
active life. At one extreme, some countries in
the region have ratios of over 150 per cent – The widening gap between domestic food
even higher than the average for developed production and consumption is met by imports.
countries. At the other extreme, some of the Where imports are affordable, based on
LDCs in the Arab region barely reach 100 merchandise or service exports, national level
per cent. It is important to bear in mind that availability is secure. Some Arab countries,
the ADESA overstates the consumption of however, have insufficient export revenue to
some segments of society because it does sustain their imports of food, and these
not take into consideration the distribution of countries are highly vulnerable to global food
food among the population. supply shortages, and consequently to
price shocks.
The quantity of food consumed at a national
level depends heavily on demographics. The Access to food is primarily an economic
countries of the Arab region are undergoing a challenge
period of demographic transformation
characterized by a high population growth Even in countries with stable food availability at
rate and increasing urbanization. Between a national level, access at the household level
1950 and 2010, the population of the region cannot be taken for granted. There is
increased by nearly five times. In contrast, considerable inequality in access to food within
the other underlying determinant of food the region – more than in either developing or
consumption – average per capita consumption developed countries taken as a whole. Within
– has changed much less dramatically. In terms the Arab region, only for the GCC countries is
of urbanization, nearly 90 per cent of the equality of consumption similar to that of
increase in the population of the region in the developed countries. For the other three
years to come will be in urban areas, such that subregions (Mashreq, Maghreb and LDCs),
ix
consumption is more unequally distributed Arab region, where populations suffer from
than it is globally or in developing countries conflicts and political instability, physical access
as a group. The highest levels of inequality in to food is also a problem. Physical distribution
the Arab region are in the LDCs. of food is often required in such cases, but can
be limited when agencies such as the World
Perhaps the most important factor constraining Food Programme have insufficient resources or
access to food is poverty: with a sufficient level are unable to reach affected populations.
of income, households can overcome most of
the barriers to access. By global standards, Undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies
poverty in the Arab region is not high. There is exist side by side with obesity
wide variation, however, with some Arab
countries considered among the richest in Utilization refers to the types and quantities of
the world (for instance, Qatar) and others food consumed and to the physical metabolism
considered among the poorest (for instance, of food. As such, it reflects the biological
the Comoros). As is the case in other parts consequences of food availability and food
of the world, much of the poverty in the access. Because utilization can be measured at
Arab region is a rural phenomenon. the level of individuals, it not only provides a
In Egypt, the Sudan and Yemen, more than glimpse into inequalities across households, but
three-quarters of poor citizens live in rural also allows the identification of vulnerabilities
areas. This fact highlights the continuing among specific demographic groups, such as
importance of agriculture as a source of young children and women of childbearing age.
livelihoods, despite its low contribution to
the quantities consumed. Yemen has an extremely high rate of
malnutrition in the form of stunting among
Social protection programmes, intended to young children, and is considered in the most
ensure a minimum level of food consumption, critical category of countries by the World
exist throughout the Arab region and are often Health Organization. The other LDCs in the
directly focused on food. In the past, universal region – particularly the Comoros, Djibouti and
food subsidies were common. However, as Somalia – also have very serious malnutrition
global food prices have risen, programmes problems. The relatively high rate of stunting in
based on food imports have become the Syrian Arab Republic, recorded before the
increasingly more expensive, putting current conflict, has likely worsened in recent
unsustainable pressure on public budgets. years. Micronutrient deficiencies are also
In several countries of the region, universal food common in the Arab region, and even well
subsidies are being replaced with targeted cash beyond common in its LDCs. For example, rates
transfer programmes. Cutting-edge technology of iodine deficiency among children are higher
is now being used in safety nets for Syrian than the global developing country average in
refugees in Jordan, providing an opportunity to all Arab LDCs, as well as in Algeria, Kuwait,
improve the efficiency of safety nets much Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar and the United
more broadly. Arab Emirates.
While poverty is the main factor constraining Access to clean water, sanitation and health
household access, in several countries of the care are essential components of food security,