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! ! Aquaculture!development! in!the!Sultanate!of!Oman! ! ! ! ! ! By!Tom!Prins! ( Towards(a(blue(revolution(in(a(hydrocarbon(society?( 0! ! Towards(a(blue(revolution(in(a( hydrocarbon(society? ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Master!Thesis!Business!Geography! ! Author:!! ! ! ! ! Tom!Prins! Student!number:! ! ! ! 3379329! Email:! ! ! ! ! ! [email protected]!!! Date:!! ! ! ! ! ! June!17th!2015!! University:!! ! ! ! ! Utrecht!University,!the!Netherlands! Master!degree:!! ! ! ! Business!Geography! Faculty:! ! ! ! ! Geosciences! Address:! ! ! ! ! Heidelberglaan!2! 3584!CS!Utrecht,!the!Netherlands! ! Supervisor!Utrecht!University:! ! Dr.!L.M.J.!van!Grunsven! Email:! ! ! ! ! ! [email protected]! ! Supervisor!Netherlands!Embassy,!Muscat:! Ms.!Angélique!Eijpe! Email:!!! ! ! ! ! [email protected]! Towards(a(blue(revolution(in(a(hydrocarbon(society?( 1! Acknowledgements!! ! Dear!reader,! ! In!front!of!you!is!my!master!thesis!on!the!development!of!the!aquaculture!industry!in!the! Sultanate!of!Oman.!All!the!people!who!I’ve!met!and!worked!with!along!the!course!of!this! research! have! been! extremely! helpful.! I! am! sincerely! grateful! for! all! of! their! individual! contributions!–!being!it!for!participating!in!this!research,!to!reviewing!my!concept!versions!or! having!great!conversations!during!the!many!coffee!breaks!at!the!university!library.!Without!all! of!these!people!both!in!Oman!and!in!the!Netherlands!this!research!would!have!not!been! possible.!! ! I!would!like!to!thank!all!of!my!colleagues!at!the!Netherlands!Embassy!in!Muscat.!In!particular! Angelique!Eijpe,!for!offering!me!a!job!at!the!economic!department!of!the!Netherlands!Embassy! in!Muscat,!but!also!for!giving!me!the!freedom!to!conduct!my!research.!Your!knowledge!of!the! Arab!region!and!the!economy!of!Oman!in!particular!have!been!of!great!help!and!have!been!a! major!source!of!both!information!and!inspiration.!Also!a!big!thanks!to!Hans!van!der!Beek!at!the! Netherlands!Agriculture!Attaché!in!Riyadh,!Saudi!Arabia.!Getting!the!opportunity!to!extend!my! stay!in!Oman!with!another!3!months!has!been!crucial!for!the!final!product!and!for!sourcing!all! the!data!I!needed.!It!has!been!a!great!and!informative!experience!to!work!with!both!of!you! Angelique!and!Hans.!! ! I!would!also!like!to!especially!thank!my!supervisor!at!the!Utrecht!University,!Leo!van!Grunsven.! Providing!me!with!constructive!criticism!all!along!the!way!during!the!hours!of!discussions!we’ve! had!have!made!me!push!this!research!and!make!the!most!of!it.!! ! Then!at!last!I!would!like!to!dedicate!this!research!to!Hesham!Lofty.!His!death!in!May!2015!came! unexpected!and!is!an!incredible!loss!for!the!people!around!him,!but!also!for!the!development!of! aquaculture!activities!in!Oman.!I!won’t!forget!the!several!moments!we!sat!down!at!a!local!Costa! Coffee!in!Muscat!and!Hesham!would!answer!all!my!questions!in!complete!honesty!and!with! great!energy.!Hesham’s!unrivalled!passion!for!developing!sustainable!aquaculture!activities! made!him!(using!his!own!words)!a!real!champion,!which!will!definitely!be!missed!deeply.!! ! Utrecht,!the!Netherlands! June!2015 Towards(a(blue(revolution(in(a(hydrocarbon(society?( 2! ! Contents ! ! SUMMARY! 6! 1.!INTRODUCTION! 10! 1.1!ECONOMIC!DIVERSIFICATION! 10! 1.2!A!NEW!GROWTH!PATH:!THE!AQUACULTURE!INDUSTRY! 11! 1.3!RESEARCH!QUESTIONS! 12! 1.3!RELEVANCE! 12! 1.3.1!SCIENTIFIC!RELEVANCE! 12! 1.3.2!SOCIETAL!RELEVANCE! 13! 2.!LITERATURE!REVIEW! 15! 2.1!PATH!CREATION!&!PATH!DEVELOPMENT! 15! 2.1.1!PATH!CREATION:!ENDOGENOUS!AND!EXOGENOUS!GROWTH!THEORY! 15! 2.1.2!THE!ORIGIN!OF!GROWTH!PATHS! 16! 2.1.3!PATH!DEVELOPMENT! 19! 2.1.4!PATH!CREATION!TO!ENHANCE!REGIONAL!RESILIENCE! 21! 2.2!REGIONAL!ABSORPTIVE!CAPACITY!&!INNOVATION! 21! 2.2.1!LOCAL!INNOVATION!SYSTEMS!(LIS)! 22! 2.2.2!REGIONAL!ABSORPTIVE!CAPACITY!&!KNOWLEDGE!COMPLEMENTARITY! 24! 2.2.3!TECHNOLOGICAL!LEAPFROGGING! 25! 2.3!A!HUMAN!AGENCY!PERSPECTIVE!ON!GROWTH!PATH!DEVELOPMENT! 27! 2.3.1!FORMAL!&!INFORMAL!INSTITUTIONS! 27! 2.3.2!THE!ROLE!OF!THE!STATE!IN!DEVELOPING!NEW!GROWTH!PATHS! 27! 2.3.3!THE!ROLE!OF!FIRMS!IN!DEVELOPING!NEW!GROWTH!PATHS! 29! 2.4!PATH!CREATION!&!DEVELOPMENT!IN!PERSPECTIVE;!GCC!ECONOMIES! 29! 2.4.1!RENT!SEEKING!BEHAVIOUR!&!POLITICAL!LOCK!INS! 30! 2.4.2!REGIONAL!LEARNING!&!KNOWLEDGE!TRANSFERS! 31! 2.4.3!PRIVATE!SECTOR!ACTIVITY!&!GOVERNANCE! 32! 2.5!CONCEPTUAL!FRAMEWORK!&!HYPOTHESES! 34! 2.5.1!HYPOTHESES!SUB!QUESTIONS! 34! 3.!METHODOLOGY! 38! 3.1!INTERVIEWS!–!KEY!INFORMANTS! 38! 3.2!QUALITATIVE!DATA! 40! 3.3!OPERATIONALIZATION!&!MEASUREMENT! 41! 3.4!VALIDITY,!RELIABILITY!&!REFLEXIVITY! 45! 3.4.1!VALIDITY!&!RELIABILITY! 45! 3.4.2!REFLEXIVITY! 45! 3.5!DATA!ANALYSIS! 46! 3.5.1!CONTENT!ANALYSIS! 46! 3.5.2!NVIVO!ANALYSING!SOFTWARE! 47! 4.!AN!ECONOMIC!REVIEW!OF!THE!SULTANATE!OF!OMAN! 49! 4.1!DOMINANCE!OF!THE!HYDROCARBON!SECTOR! 49! 4.2!CAPTURE!FISHERIES!IN!OMAN! 52! 4.3!DOING!BUSINESS!IN!OMAN! 55! 4.3.1!DOING!BUSINESS!INDEX! 55! 4.3.2!ECONOMIC!FREEDOM!–!LEGAL!STRUCTURE! 56! 4.4!LABOUR!MARKET! 56! 4.4.1!LABOUR!PRODUCTIVITY! 56! Towards(a(blue(revolution(in(a(hydrocarbon(society?( 3! 4.4.2!GOVERNMENT!POLICY! 58! 4.5!INNOVATION!&!R&D! 60! 5.!EVOLUTION!OF!THE!AQUACULTURE!INDUSTRY!IN!OMAN! 63! 5.1!AQUACULTURE!IN!OMAN! 63! 5.1.1!AN!INTRODUCTION!TO!AQUACULTURE! 63! 5.1.2!DEVELOPMENT!OF!AQUACULTURE!IN!OMAN!–!DIVERSIFICATION! 64! 5.1.3!CURRENT!STATUS!OF!THE!AQUACULTURE!INDUSTRY!IN!OMAN! 65! 5.1.4!AQUACULTURE!INVESTMENT!POLICY! 70! 5.2!SOURCES!OF!AQUACULTURE!IN!OMAN! 72! 5.2.1!OMAN’S!HISTORY!WITH!AQUACULTURE! 72! 5.2.2!KNOWLEDGE!TRANSPLANTATION!AS!A!SOURCE!OF!GROWTH! 76! 5.2.3!ANSWERING!THE!1ST!SUBiQUESTION! 82! 6.!ABSORPTIVE!CAPACITY! 84! 6.1!RECOGNIZING!VALUABLE!KNOWLEDGE! 84! 6.1.1!CAPACITY!BUILDING! 84! 6.1.2!BENCHMARKING!&!FOREIGN!EXPERTS! 85! 6.1.3!CONCLUSION! 87! 6.2!ASSIMILATING!&!COMMERCIALIZING!EXTERNAL!KNOWLEDGE!LOCALLY! 87! 6.2.1!COSTS!(PART!1)! 87! 6.2.2!CULTURES!OF!WORK!(PART!1)! 88! 6.2.3!ISOLATED!KNOWLEDGE!AND!COMMERCIALIZATION! 89! 6.2.3!CONCLUSION! 90! 6.3!ANSWERING!THE!2ND!SUBaQUESTION! 90! 7.!LOCALISED!INNOVATION!SYSTEMS! 93! 7.1!PUBLIC!RESEARCH! 93! 7.1.1!THE!AQUACULTURE!CENTRE!AND!THE!MARINE!SCIENCE!AND!FISHERIES!CENTRE! 93! 7.1.2!SQU! 95! 7.1.3!RESEARCH!FUNDING! 96! 7.1.4!CONCLUSION! 98! 7.2!PRIVATE!SECTOR!RESEARCH! 98! 7.2.1!LACK!OF!PRIVATE!SECTOR!ACTIVITIES!&!LACK!OF!R&D! 98! 7.2.2!NO!‘INNOVATION!CULTURE’! 99! 7.2.3!CONCLUSION! 102! 7.3!COLLABORATION!&!ORGANIZATION! 103! 7.3.1!COLLABORATION! 103! 7.3.2!NO!COORDINATION! 104! 7.3.3!CONCLUSION! 105! 7.4!ANSWERING!THE!3RD!SUBaQUESTION! 106! 8.!HUMAN!AGENTS!AND!INSTITUTIONS! 108! 8.1!FORMAL!INSTITUTIONS! 108! 8.1.1!REGULATORY!FRAMEWORK! 108! 8.1.2!THE!LABOUR!MARKET! 111! 8.1.3!TRAINING!&!EDUCATION!SYSTEM! 115! 8.1.4!INVOLVEMENT!OF!THE!MINISTRY!OF!AGRICULTURE!AND!FISHERIES!WEALTH! 117! 8.1.5!CONCLUSION! 119! 8.2!INFORMAL!INSTITUTIONS! 120! 8.2.1!CULTURES!OF!WORK!(PART!2)! 121! 8.2.2!WAYS!OF!DOING!BUSINESS! 123! 8.2.3!CONCLUSION! 127! Towards(a(blue(revolution(in(a(hydrocarbon(society?( 4! ! 8.3!ANSWERING!THE!4TH!SUBaQUESTION! 128! 9.!CONCLUSION!AND!POLICY!RECOMMENDATIONS! 130! 9.1!THE!FILLED!IN!CONCEPTUAL!FRAMEWORK! 130! 9.2!POLICY!RECOMMENDATIONS! 132! 9.3!DISCUSSION! 136! 9.3.1!LIMITATIONS!OF!THE!RESEARCH! 136! 9.3.2!FUTURE!RESEARCH! 137! 10.!REFERENCES! 140! ! APPENDIX!1!a!NVIVO!CODE!TREE! 147! APPENDIX!2!–!TOPIC!LIST!AQUACULTURE! 149! Towards(a(blue(revolution(in(a(hydrocarbon(society?( 5! Summary! ! At!the!SouthiEastern!tip!of!the!Arabian!peninsula!the!Sultanate!of!Oman!has!demonstrated! impressive!economic!growth!rates!over!the!last!few!decades!ever!since!the!discovery!of!oil!in!the! country.!As!a!result!todays!reality!is!an!economy!that!heavily!depends!on!incomes!derived!from! hydrocarbons,!accounting!for!86%!of!the!government!revenues!in!2012,!which!is!equal!to!more! than!51%!of!the!country’s!GDP!(National!Bank!of!Oman,!2013).!Depending!on!the!level!of! production!however!could!the!5,5!billion!barrels!that!account!for!Oman’s!oil!reserves!already!be! depleted!by!the!year!2022!(Campbell!&!Heaps,!2008).!Back!in!1995!the!Omani!government! already!acknowledge!the!limited!availability!of!its!natural!resources!and!hence!the!need!to! diversify!the!economy!and!create!wealth!beyond!hydrocarbon!revenues.!As!such!it!developed!a! long!term!development!strategy!named!the!‘Vision(2020(Development(Plan’.!This!development! plan!was,!and!still!is,!centred!around!three!main!pillars;!diversification(of(the(economy,(human( resource(development!and!private(sector(development.!In!order!to!diversify!the!economy!and! create!wealth!beyond!the!availability!of!natural!resources!several!potential!high!growth!sectors! have!been!appointed!by!the!Omani!government.!Aquaculture!is!one!of!these!sectors!and!hence!is! the!Ministry!of!Agriculture!and!Fisheries!Wealth!committed!to!get!a!worldiclass!aquaculture! industry!off!the!ground!in!the!Sultanate.!Considering!the!worldwide!growth!rates!of!aquaculture! over!the!past!few!decades!as!well!as!the!future!projections!for!the!sector!this!ambition!is!pretty! much! understandable.! On! the! other! hand,! diversifying! the! economy! by! investing! in! new! productive!industries!has!proven!to!be!rather!problematic!for!the!Gulf!economies.!Besides!a!few! exceptions!(like!e.g.!Dubai)!have!efforts!to!develop!knowledge!intensive!industries!not!been! successful!so!far,!leaving!the!question!on!how!to!transform!sudden!oil!wealth!in!to!a!knowledge! economy!unanswered!(Ewers!&!Malecki,!2009).!This!research!has!contributed!to!this!pool!of! knowledge! as! well! as! to! the! knowledge! around! path! creation,! path! development! and! collaboration!processes!on!the!basis!of!both.!!The!central!research!question!that!has!been! answered!in!this!research!is!as!follows;!Does(the(current(growth(trajectory(of(aquaculture(in( Oman(hold(the(potential(to(create(a(viable(new(growth(path(in(the(economy?!By!adapting!a! qualitative!multiiactor!approach!insights!have!been!generated!in!the!collaboration!processes! between!different!agents!that!lie!on!the!basis!of!the!growth!path!of!the!aquaculture!industry!in! Oman.!Inidepth!interviews!with!a!wide!range!of!informants!from!the!public!and!private!sector!in! combination!with!extensive!desk!research!have!been!used!to!answer!the!above!mentioned! research!question.!! ! Theory( From!a!theoretic!point!of!view!industrial!growth!paths!are!explained!by!two!growth!models,! namely! endogenous! growth! and! exogenous! growth.! Within! the! evolutionary! economic! geography!the!majority!of!the!work!done!explains!industrial!growth!paths!through!endogenous! growth,!within!which!the!development!of!new!industries!is!stimulated!and!enabled!by!“preB existing(resources,(competences,(skills(and(experiences(from(previous(local(paths(and(patterns(of( economic(development.”!(Dawley!et!al.,!2010,!p.!656,!after!Simmie!&!Martin,!2010,!p.!6),!and! hence!are!imbedded!in!a!regions’!DNA!(Bristow!&!Healy,!2014).!From!this!perspective!industries! with!skills!related!to!existing!skills!in!the!region!are!more!likely!to!grow!as!skillirelatedness! leads!to!regional!labour!matching!and!favours!regional!embedding!of!new!industries!(Boschma,! 2014).!Exogenous!growth!however!is!explained!through!the!transplantation!of!industries,!firms! or!new!technologies!from!elsewhere!to!create!or!develop!growth!paths!in!the!economy!(Dawley,! 2013).!For!both!endogenous!and!exogenous!growth!the!existing!human!capital!translated!in!the! absorptive!capacity!of!a!region!plays!a!major!part.!For!endogenous!growth!it’s!the!existing!skills! and!regional!assets!that!define!the!boundaries!between!which!a!region!can!diversify!its!economy! by! developing! new! growth! paths! (Boschman,! 2014;! Neffke! et! al,.! 2011).! In! general! the! absorptive! capacity! of! a! region! is! understood! as! to! comprise! existing! human! capital! in! combination!with!the!complementarity!between!local!and!external,!or!global!knowledge.!As! developing!new!industries!in!the!Gulf!countries!mainly!depends!on!the!acquisition!of!knowledge! and!technologies!from!elsewhere!the!most!relevant!interpretation!of!the!absorptive!capacity! Towards(a(blue(revolution(in(a(hydrocarbon(society?( 6! ! here!is!the!capacity!to!recognize!and!understand!valuable!new!knowledge!outside!the!region,! assimilate!this!knowledge!locally!and!create!new!knowledge!and!commercial!outputs!(Simmie!et! al.,!2008,!p.16).!Only!through!regional!learning!these!consecutive!processes!can!enhance!a! region’s!overall!absorptive!capacity.!The!successful!transplantation!of!knowledge!in!order!to! develop!new!industries!is!highly!depended!on!a!region’s!absorptive!capacity,!therefore!regional! learning!deserves!major!attention!from!economic!policy!makers.!A!whole!ensemble!of!place! specific!institutions!is!responsible!for!a!regions!learning!ability!(Ewers,!2013;!Hassink,!2010;! OECD,!2001).!Hence!in!order!to!learn,!innovate!and!technologically!advance!a!region!or!specific! industry!this!whole!ensemble!of!institutions!should!be!integrated!in!the!learning!strategy!for!the! sake! of! economic! development.! One! way! of! doing! this! is! by! addressing! a! so! called! Local! Innovation!System,!which!is!defined!by!Simmie!et!al.!(2008,!p.!14)!as!“a(functionally(localised( collection(of(organisations,(institutions(and(processes(that(create(or(adopt(valuable(new(economic( knowledge(and(commercialize(it”.! In! order! to! truly! understand! the! functioning! of! regional! economies!one!should!understand!the!behaviour!of!its!human!agents!(Bristow!&!Healy,!2014).! This!behaviour!is!structured!through!formal!institutions!like!e.g.!a!country’s!constitution,!laws! and!property!rights!and!its!informal!institutions!like!traditions,!codes!of!conduct!(North,!1991)! and!the!cultures!of!work!and!the!ways!of!doing!business!(Ewers,!2013).!The!role!of!institutions! in!pursuing!a!specific!economic!growth!path!is!crucial!as!they’re!responsible!for!providing!the! economy’s!incentive!structure!(North,!1991).!! ! Results( The!Sultanate!of!Oman!doesn’t!have!an!extensive!or!long!history!with!conducting!aquaculture.! As!the!skillirelatedness!of!the!existing!fisheries!industry!is!limited!to!postiharvest!activities! there!are!no!real!opportunities!for!labour!matching!when!it!comes!to!actual!fish!farming.!As!a! result!the!development!of!aquaculture!in!Oman!follows!an!exogenous!growth!path!driven!by!the! transplantation!of!knowledge!and!technology!from!elsewhere.!Making!use!of!this!imported! knowledge! and! technology! attempts! are! made! to! make! major! leaps! in! technological! advancement! and! catch! up! with! technological! leading! countries.! However! a! rather! poor! absorptive! capacity! of! the! existing! aquaculture! industry! could! prevent! these! leaps! to! successfully!take!place.!Using!the!knowledge!of!foreign!experts!the!country!is!fairly!good!in! recognizing!valuable!new!knowledge!from!outside!to!develop!an!aquaculture!industry!in!the! country,! however! assimilating! and! using! this! knowledge! locally! has! proven! to! be! quite! problematic!somehow.!Weak!collaboration!between!actors!involved!in!the!aquaculture!industry! and!a!general!lack!of!coordination!of!aquaculture!activities!makes!regional!learning!problematic! and!negatively!influences!the!opportunities!for!a!functional!local!innovation!system.!As!the! institutional! framework! is! also! clearly! not! geared! towards! innovation! and! renewal! the! development!of!aquaculture!in!Oman!suffers!from!a!lack!of!incentives!for!innovation!and!an! ‘innovation!culture’!in!general.!! ! With!regards!to!the!role!of!institutions!it!is!most!of!all!the!role!of!the!Ministry!of!Agriculture!and! Fisheries!Wealth!that!is,!in!contrast!to!what!one!would!expect!considering!the!aim!of!developing! a!worldiclass!aquaculture!industry,!rather!constraining!instead!of!enabling.!The!ministry!has! created!an!environment!in!which!it!for!foreign!companies!is!very!difficult!to!do!–!but!especially! start!their!business,!notwithstanding!the!financial!incentives!provided.!The!process!of!licensing! private!sector!project!proposals!takes!too!long!despite!the!existence!of!a!‘one(stop(shop’!for! aquaculture!within!the!ministry.!As!a!result!the!willingness!of!foreign!companies!to!pursue!their! investments!in!Oman!is!seriously!affected,!which!is!problematic!as!the!development!of!the! aquaculture!industry!is!dependent!of!foreign!private!sector!projects.!!Additionally!through! strong!government!involvement!in!the!labour!market!is!also!local!private!initiative!very!limited.! Because!of!a!lack!of!existing!skills!in!aquaculture!as!well!as!a!lack!of!both!entrepreneurial!spirit! and!a!‘hands!on’!mentality!is!there!no!Omani!workforce!ready!yet!to!work!in!the!aquaculture! industry.!! ! ( Towards(a(blue(revolution(in(a(hydrocarbon(society?( 7! Recommendations(( Arising!from!the!results!of!this!research!can!be!concluded!that!the!current!growth!trajectory!of! the!Omani!aquaculture!industry!doesn’t!hold!the!potential!to!actually!develop!as!a!viable!growth! path!in!the!economy.!Major!improvements!are!needed!in!order!to!‘turn!the!tide’!and!provide!an! environment!in!which!the!current!infant!aquaculture!industry!in!Oman!can!thrive.!Especially! enabling!learning!opportunities,!innovation!and!private!sector!activities!need!to!be!seriously! addressed.!In!this!research!a!set!of!several!policy!recommendations!is!being!done.!These!are! mainly!to!be!addressed!at!the!Ministry!of!Agriculture!and!Fisheries!Wealth!but!are!for!practical! reasons!also!useful!for!private!sector!actors!and!knowledge!institutes.!Among!others!these!are! some!of!the!recommendations!being!done:! ! 1. Coordinate!learning!&!innovation:!address!a!local!aquaculture!innovation!system!and! emphasize!the!need!for!collaboration!of!a!wide!range!of!actors,!integrate!all!projects!in!a! wider!context!to!ensure!maximum!learning!opportunities,!embedding!and!follow!up!of! R&D!projects.!Emphasize!the!commercialization!of!knowledge.!!! ! 2. Focus!on!capacity!building:!basic!level!knowledge!and!specific!higher!education!require! major!improvements.!Focus!on!increasing!both!the!basic!biological!knowledge!of!students! as!well!as!specific!aquaculture!knowledge!on!master!level.!Additionally!train!existing!staff! at! research! centres! and! stimulate! knowledge! transfers! between! expats! and! local! employees.! ! 3. Reform!the!labour!market:!reforms!are!needed!at!both!the!supply!and!the!demand!side.! Besides!improvement!of!skills!do!work!ethics!need!to!be!addressed,!the!Omanization!policy! should!be!reconsidered!and!the!Ministry!of!Agriculture!and!Fisheries!Wealth!should!stop! expanding!itself!at!the!expense!of!private!sector!activity.!Promote!private!sector!activity! and!issue!permits!more!rapidly!to!enable!private!sector!projects!to!start.!!! !! ! ! ! ! ! Towards(a(blue(revolution(in(a(hydrocarbon(society?( 8! ! 1.!Introduction ! Towards(a(blue(revolution(in(a(hydrocarbon(society?( 9!

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[email protected]! ! Supervisor! In! front! of! you! is! my! master! thesis! on! the! development! of! the! aquaculture! industry! in! the! Doing!Business!Report!scores!for!Oman!are!used!as!they!measure! regulations!that!both!enhance!and!constrain!business!activity!in!11!areas!of!business.
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