Appendix C: Summary of Health Effects of Modeled Air Pollutants

118 Pages·2009·1.43 MB·English

Table of Contents

Final Report
282828282828282828

Sub-Saharan Africa
Refinery Project
Health Study: Volume I-A
Health Study

June 2009

Submitted to:
The World Bank
and
The African Refiners Association
Submitted by:
ICF International
33 Hayden Avenue
Lexington, MA USA
Tel: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
&
Lisa Robinson,
Independent Consultant &
James Hammitt,
Harvard School of Public Health
Valuation Subcontractors

1

World Bank
Volume I-A: Health Study Final Report
June, 2009

Prepared for:
The World Bank and
The African Refiners Association

Prepared by:
ICF International
33 Hayden Avenue
Lexington, MA 02421
781 676 4000
with Lisa Robinson and James Hammitt,
Valuation Subcontractors

3
bbllaannkk
ppaaggee

4
Volume I-A: Health Study Final Report
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Health Study: Volume I-A
1. Purpose of the Health Study ..................................................................................................... 1-1
2. Overview of Health Study ......................................................................................................... 2-1
3. Emissions and Air Modeling ..................................................................................................... 3-1
3.1 Selection of Analysis Locations ....................................................................................... 3-1
3.2 Modeling Scenarios ...................................................................................................... 3-3
3.3 Pollutants and Averaging Periods ..................................................................................... 3-5
3.4 Air Quality Model ......................................................................................................... 3-6
3.4.1 Development of Emission Inventories ................................................................ 3-6
3.4.2 Geophysical Data (Land-Use and Terrain Elevation) ............................................. 3-9
3.4.3 Meteorological Data and Modeling .................................................................. 3-10
3.4.4 CALPUFF Modeling .................................................................................... 3-10
3.5 Regional Analyses ..................................................................................................... 3-10
3.5.1 Eastern Region .......................................................................................... 3-10
3.5.2 Western Region ......................................................................................... 3-24
3.5.3 Southern Region ........................................................................................ 3-41
3.6 Uncertainties Associated with the Air Modeling .................................................................. 3-58
3.6.1 Kampala, Uganda ....................................................................................... 3-58
3.6.2 Cotonou, Benin .......................................................................................... 3-59
3.6.3 Johannesburg, RSA .................................................................................... 3-59
3.6.4 Alternate Assumptions for Base Case Emissions Inventory .................................. 3-59
4. Health Impact Assessment ....................................................................................................... 4-1
4.1 Health Endpoints Associated with Key Air Pollutants ............................................................. 4-1
4.1.1 Determine Health Endpoints ............................................................................ 4-1
4.1.2 Health Endpoints Not Selected ........................................................................ 4-3
4.2 Selection of Health Studies ............................................................................................. 4-4
4.2.1 Initial Screening of Health Studies .................................................................... 4-4
4.2.2 Exposure-Response Functions ........................................................................ 4-5
4.2.3 Summary of Selected Studies .......................................................................... 4-6
4.3 Air Pollution/Health Studies from Sub-Saharan Africa ............................................................ 4-8
4.4 Compilation of Health Study Parameters ............................................................................ 4-9
4.4.1 Concentrations Used in the Health Assessment ................................................... 4-9
4.4.2 Compilation of Baseline Health Statistics ............................................................ 4-9
4.5 Uncertainties Associated with the Health Impact Assessment ............................................... 4-12
5. Health Valuation ...................................................................................................................... 5-1
5.1 Valuation Approaches ................................................................................................... 5-1
5.2 Mortality Risk Reductions ............................................................................................... 5-2
ICF International World Bank
June 2009
Volume I-A: Health Study Final Report
Table of Contents
5.2.1 VSL Literature Review ................................................................................... 5-3
5.2.2 VSL Recommendations ................................................................................. 5-4
5.2.3 Selected Values for Mortality Risk Valuations ...................................................... 5-5
5.3 Morbidity Risk Reductions .............................................................................................. 5-5
5.3.1 Chronic Bronchitis ........................................................................................ 5-6
5.3.2 Asthma Exacerbations ................................................................................... 5-6
5.3.3 Selected Values for Morbidity Risk Valuations ..................................................... 5-6
5.4 Uncertainties Associated with the Health Valuation ............................................................... 5-7
6. Calculation of Health Impacts and Monetary Benefits .................................................................... 6-1
6.1 East Region................................................................................................................ 6-1
6.1.1 Quantitative City Evaluation - East Region .......................................................... 6-1
6.1.2 Qualitative City Evaluations - East Region .......................................................... 6-2
6.1.3 Regional Analysis - East Region ...................................................................... 6-2
6.2 West Region ............................................................................................................... 6-3
6.2.1 Quantitative City Evaluation - West SSA Region .................................................. 6-3
6.2.2 Qualitative City Evaluations - West SSA Region ................................................... 6-4
6.2.3 Regional Analysis - West SSA Region ............................................................... 6-4
6.3 South SSA Region ....................................................................................................... 6-5
6.3.1 Quantitative City Evaluation - South SSA Region.................................................. 6-5
6.3.2 Qualitative City Assessment - South SSA Region ................................................. 6-5
6.3.3 Regional Analysis - South SSA Region .............................................................. 6-6
6.4 Summary of Study Uncertainties ...................................................................................... 6-6
7. Health Study Summary and Discussion ...................................................................................... 7-1
8. References ............................................................................................................................. 8-1

ICF International World Bank
June 2009
Volume I-A: Health Study Final Report
Table of Contents
List of Tables

Table 3-1: Cities Selected for Analysis ............................................................................................... 3-2
Table 3-2: AFRI-4 Standards for Sulfur and Benzene Content in Fuel ........................................................ 3-4
Table 3-3: Vehicle Activity Percentages for Different Vehicle Types in Kampala ......................................... 3-11
Table 3-4: Summary of Total Emissions in Base Case Inventory for Kampala, Uganda ................................ 3-14
Table 3-5: Summary of Total Emissions in Scenario 1 Inventory for Kampala, Uganda ................................ 3-15
Table 3-6: Summary of Total Emissions in Scenario 2 Inventory for Kampala, Uganda ................................ 3-15
Table 3-7: Base Case Modeling Results for Kampala, Uganda .............................................................. 3-16
Table 3-8: Scenario 1 (AFRI-4 Fuel Specifications) Modeling Results for Kampala, Uganda ......................... 3-16
Table 3-9: Scenario 2 (AFRI-4 Fuel Specifications with Control Technologies)
Modeling Results for Kampala, Uganda ........................................................................................... 3-16
Table 3-10: Modeled Annual Average (Spatially Averaged) Air Contaminant Concentrations in
Densely Populated Areas - Kampala ............................................................................................... 3-17
Table 3-11: Alternate Assumptions: Modeled Annual Average (Spatially Averaged)
Air Contaminant Concentrations in Densely Populated Areas - Kampala .................................................. 3-17
Table 3-12: Air Pollution Emission Summary for Nairobi, Kenya ............................................................. 3-18
Table 3-13: Estimated Emissions for Dar Es Salaam City, Tanzania for Industry and Other Sources ............... 3-20
Table 3-14: Qualitative Assessment for the Eastern SSA Region (Based on Comparison with Kampala) .......... 3-22
Table 3-15: Vehicle Activity Percentages for Different Vehicle Types in Cotonou ....................................... 3-25
Table 3-16. Shares of Modes of Transport in Use in 14 African Cities ...................................................... 3-27
Table 3-17: Summary of Total Emissions in Base Case Inventory for Cotonou, Benin .................................. 3-30
Table 3-18: Summary of Total Emissions in Scenario 1 Inventory for Cotonou, Benin .................................. 3-30
Table 3-19: Summary of Total Emissions in Scenario 2 Inventory for Cotonou, Benin .................................. 3-31
Table 3-20: Base Case Modeling Results for Cotonou ......................................................................... 3-32
Table 3-21: Scenario 1 Modeling Results (AFRI-4 Fuel Specifications) for Cotonou .................................... 3-33
Table 3-22: Scenario 2 Modeling Results (AFRI-4 Fuel Specifications with Control Technologies) for Cotonou .. 3-33
Table 3-23: Modeled Annual Average (Spatially Averaged) Air Contaminant Concentrations in
Densely Populated Areas - Cotonou ............................................................................................... 3-34
Table 3-24: Alternate Assumptions: Modeled Annual Average (Spatially Averaged)
Total PM Concentrations in Densely Population Areas - Cotonou ........................................................... 3-34
Table 3-25: Citywide Base Case Emissions by Source Category in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso ................... 3-36
Table 3-26: Citywide Scenario 1 Emissions by Source Category in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso ................... 3-36
Table 3-27: Citywide Base Case Emissions by Source Category in Lagos, Nigeria ..................................... 3-37
Table 3-28: Citywide Scenario 1 Emissions by Source Category in Lagos, Nigeria ...................................... 3-37
Table 3-29: Qualitative Assessment for the West SSA Region (Based on Comparison with Cotonou) .............. 3-39
Table 3-30: Summary of Total Emissions in Base Case Inventory for Johannesburg, South Africa .................. 3-45
Table 3-31: Summary of Total Emissions in Scenario 1 Inventory for Johannesburg, South Africa .................. 3-46
Table 3-32: Summary of Total Emissions in Scenario 2 Inventory for Johannesburg, South Africa .................. 3-46
Table 3-33: Monitoring Data for Johannesburg Air Quality, for Evaluation of Model Output ........................... 3-48
ICF International World Bank
June 2009
Volume I-A: Health Study Final Report
Table of Contents
Table 3-34: Base Case CALPUFF Modeling Results for Johannesburg .................................................... 3-49
Table 3-35: Scenario 1 (AFRI-4 Fuel Specifications) Modeling Results for Johannesburg ........................... 3-49
Table 3-36: Scenario 2 (AFRI-4 Fuel Specifications With Control Technologies)
Modeling Results for Johannesburg ................................................................................................ 3-49
Table 3-37: Modeled Annual Average (Spatially Averaged) Air Contaminant Concentrations in
Densely Populated Areas for Johannesburg...................................................................................... 3-50
Table 3-38: Vehicle Counts for Cape Town from October 200878 with VKT, Fuel Economy,
and Fuel Usage Information from 199679 .......................................................................................... 3-51
Table 3-39: Base Case Emissions Estimates for Cape Town ................................................................. 3-51
Table 3-40: Vehicle Counts for Maputo Approximately Representing Year 2000 ......................................... 3-53
Table 3-41: Base Emissions Estimates for Maputo ............................................................................. 3-54
Table 3-42: Qualitative Assessment for the South SSA Region (Based on Comparison with Johannesburg) ..... 3-55
Table 4-1: Key Air Pollutants and Associated Health Effects ................................................................... 4-1
Table 4-2: Adjusted Mortality Relative Risks Associated with a 10 µg/m3 Change in PM .............................. 4-7
2.5
Table 4-3. WHO Regions Used in the Health Assessment (classified as high mortality developing) ................. 4-10
Table 4-4: Size of Populations Used in the Health Assessment .............................................................. 4-10
Table 4-5. Mortality Rates Used in the Health Assessment1 .................................................................. 4-11
Table 4-6: Prevalence Rates for Asthma Used in the Health Assessment ............................................... 4-12
Table 6-1: Summary of Health Study Results for the East Region City (Kampala, Uganda) ............................ 6-1
Table 6-2: Health Study East SSA Regional Analysis Results
Using Alternate 2-Stroke Motorcycle Assumptions ................................................................................ 6-3
Table 6-3: Summary of Health Study Results for the West SSA Region City (Cotonou, Benin) ........................ 6-3
Table 6-4: Health Study West SSA Regional Analysis Results
Using Alternate 2-Stroke Motorcycle Assumptions ................................................................................ 6-4
Table 6-5: Summary of Health Study Results for the South SSA Region City (Johannesburg, South Africa) ....... 6-5
Table 6-6: Health Study South Region Analysis Results1 ....................................................................... 6-6
Table 7-1: Key Assumptions for the Development of Emissions Inventories, Base Case ................................. 7-1
Table 7-2: Key Changes for the Development of Scenario 1 Emissions Inventory as Compared with Base Case .. 7-4
Table 7-3: Key Changes for the Development of Scenario 2 Emissions Inventory as Compared with Scenario 1 .. 7-5
Table 7-4: Industrial Sources .......................................................................................................... 7-6

List of Figures

Figure 3-1: Regions and Cities Considered in the Health Study ............................................................... 3-1
Figure 3-2: Land Use Map for Cotonou, Benin ................................................................................... 3-29
Figure 3-3: Cotonou Monitoring Locations Figure ............................................................................. 3-32
Figure 3-4: Map of Geographic Extent of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso .................................................... 3-35
Figure 3-5: Map of Geographic Extent of Lagos, Nigeria ...................................................................... 3-38
Figure 3-6: Location of the City of Johannesburg Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Stations. ........................... 3-47

ICF International World Bank
June 2009
Volume I-A: Health Study Final Report
Table of Contents
Health Study Volume I-B: Appendices

Appendix A: Qualitative Assessment Template
Appendix B: Air Modeling Background Information
Appendix C: Emissions Inventory Development
Appendix D: Summary of Health Effects of Modeled Air Pollutants
Appendix E: Summary of Air Pollution/Health Studies Conducted in Sub-Saharan Africs
Appendix F: The Value of Reducing Air Pollution Risks in Sub-Saharan Africa

ICF International World Bank
June 2009
Volume I-A: Health Study Final Report
List of Acronyms and Definitions of Terms Used in the Report
List of Acronyms and Definitions of Terms Used in the Report
ACS American Cancer Society
AFRI Fuel specifications adopted by the Africa Refiners Association
AFRO D Africa Sub-Region D, classified based on mortality data; WHO Global
Burden of Disease project
AFRO E Africa Sub-Region E, classified based on mortality data; WHO Global
Burden of Disease project
AP-42 Air Pollution-42, US EPA's Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors
ARA African Refiners Association
asl Above sea level
AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer
BenMAP US EPA's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program
BTU British thermal units
CI Confidence interval
CO Carbon monoxide
COEE Canada Office of Energy Efficiency
COI Cost of illness
CPS-II Cancer Prevention Study II
DAAPs South Africa’s Dynamic Air Pollution Prediction System
DALY Disability-adjusted life-year
deg Degrees
°C Degrees centigrade
DEM Digital elevation model
DHS Demographic and Health Surveys
DOC Diesel oxidation catalyst
EPA California Environmental Protection Agency
E-R Exposure-response
EURO European Commission, Transport & Environment standards for gasoline
and diesel
g/kg Grams/kilogram
gal Gallons
GDP Gross domestic product
ICF International World Bank
June 2009