Appendix A: Threat Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

366 Pages·2017·26.39 MB·English

by  Chad Atkinson

State of Wisconsin
Homeland Security Council
THIRA & SPR
Wisconsin Emergency Management
Department of Military Affairs
December 2016
Amended January 2017
Document pp. 3-3 and 3-8 amended January 2017.
State of Wisconsin FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Table of Contents
Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................... i
1.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1-1
1.1 Purpose ............................................................................................................................................................... 1-1
1.2 Confidentiality Statement ............................................................................................................................ 1-1
2.0 Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 2-1
2.1 THIRA ................................................................................................................................................................... 2-1
2.2 Critical Facilities Risk Assessment ............................................................................................................. 2-3
3.0 Threats and Hazards ........................................................................................................... 3-1
3.1 Changing Future Conditions ....................................................................................................................... 3-3
3.2 Severe Weather (Including Tornadoes and High Winds, Hail, and Lightning) ....................... 3-10
3.2.1 Nature of the Hazard ............................................................................................................................................. 3-10
3.2.2 History .......................................................................................................................................................................... 3-15
3.2.3 Probability, Impacts, and Mitigation Potential............................................................................................. 3-29
3.2.4 Catastrophic Scenario ............................................................................................................................................ 3-62
3.2.5 Summary Risk Analysis .......................................................................................................................................... 3-63
3.2.6 Sources – Agency Input and Research ............................................................................................................ 3-65
3.3 Flooding (Including Dam Failure, Landslide, and Land Subsidence) .......................................... 3-69
3.3.1 Nature of the Hazard ............................................................................................................................................. 3-69
3.3.2 History .......................................................................................................................................................................... 3-63
3.3.3 Probability, Impact, and Mitigation Potential .............................................................................................. 3-82
3.3.4 Catastrophic Scenario ......................................................................................................................................... 3-111
3.3.5 Summary Risk Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 3-111
3.3.6 Sources – Agency Input and Research ......................................................................................................... 3-113
3.4 Wildfire ........................................................................................................................................................... 3-117
3.4.1 Nature of the Hazard .......................................................................................................................................... 3-117
3.4.2 History ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3-121
3.4.3 Probability, Impacts, and Mitigation Potential.......................................................................................... 3-124
3.4.4 Catastrophic Scenario ......................................................................................................................................... 3-133
3.4.5 Summary Risk Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 3-133
3.4.6 Sources – Agency Input and Research ......................................................................................................... 3-135
3.5 Drought and Extreme Heat .................................................................................................................... 3-137
3.5.1 Nature of the Hazard .......................................................................................................................................... 3-137
3.5.2 History ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3-140
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State of Wisconsin FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
3.5.3 Probability, Impact, and Mitigation Potential ........................................................................................... 3-146
3.5.4 Catastrophic Scenario ......................................................................................................................................... 3-154
3.5.5 Summary Risk Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 3-156
3.5.6 Sources – Agency Input and Research ......................................................................................................... 3-159
3.6 Winter Storms and Extreme Cold ........................................................................................................ 3-162
3.6.1 Nature of the Hazard .......................................................................................................................................... 3-162
3.6.2 History ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3-164
3.6.3 Probability, Impacts, and Mitigation Potential.......................................................................................... 3-171
3.6.4 Catastrophic Scenario ......................................................................................................................................... 3-184
3.6.5 Summary Risk Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 3-184
3.6.6 Sources – Agency Input and Research ......................................................................................................... 3-186
3.7 Coastal Erosion and Bluff Failure ......................................................................................................... 3-188
3.7.1 Nature of the Hazard .......................................................................................................................................... 3-188
3.7.2 History ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3-193
3.7.3 Probability, Impact, and Mitigation Potential ........................................................................................... 3-197
3.7.4 Catastrophic Scenario ......................................................................................................................................... 3-204
3.7.5 Summary Risk Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 3-205
3.7.6 Sources – Agency Input and Research ......................................................................................................... 3-207
3.8 Radiological Release ................................................................................................................................. 3-209
3.8.1 Nature of the Hazard .......................................................................................................................................... 3-209
3.8.2 History ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3-210
3.8.3 Probability, Impact, and Mitigation Potential ........................................................................................... 3-212
3.8.4 Catastrophic Scenario ......................................................................................................................................... 3-218
3.8.5 Summary Risk Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 3-218
3.8.6 Sources – Agency Input and Research ......................................................................................................... 3-219
3.9 Hazardous Materials Incident (Including Fixed Facilities and Transportation) .................... 3-220
3.9.1 Nature of the Hazard .......................................................................................................................................... 3-220
3.9.2 History ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3-220
3.9.3 Probability, Impact, and Mitigation Potential ........................................................................................... 3-224
3.9.4 Catastrophic Scenario ......................................................................................................................................... 3-226
3.9.5 Summary Risk Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 3-227
3.9.6 Sources – Agency Input and Research ......................................................................................................... 3-228
3.10 Disruption of Life Lines – electric, fuel, water, wastewater ...................................................... 3-229
3.10.1 Nature of the Hazard ........................................................................................................................................ 3-229
3.10.2 History .................................................................................................................................................................... 3-235
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3.10.3 Probability, Impact, and Mitigation Potential ......................................................................................... 3-236
3.10.4 Catastrophic Scenario....................................................................................................................................... 3-237
3.10.5 Summary Risk Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 3-238
3.10.6 Sources – Agency Input and Research ...................................................................................................... 3-239
3.11 Emerging Infectious Diseases (Including Pandemic Influenza) .............................................. 3-240
3.11.1 Nature of the Hazard ........................................................................................................................................ 3-240
3.11.2 History .................................................................................................................................................................... 3-241
3.11.3 Probability, Impact, and Mitigation Potential ......................................................................................... 3-243
3.11.4 Catastrophic Scenario....................................................................................................................................... 3-244
3.11.5 Summary Risk Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 3-247
3.11.6 Sources – Agency Input and Research ...................................................................................................... 3-248
3.12 Food and Agriculture Emergency...................................................................................................... 3-249
3.12.1 Nature of the Hazard ........................................................................................................................................ 3-249
3.12.2 History .................................................................................................................................................................... 3-249
3.12.3 Probability, Impact, and Mitigation Potential ......................................................................................... 3-250
3.12.4 Catastrophic Scenario....................................................................................................................................... 3-252
3.12.5 Summary Risk Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 3-252
3.12.6 Sources – Agency Input and Research ...................................................................................................... 3-254
3.13 Cyber Incident ........................................................................................................................................... 3-255
3.13.1 Nature of the Hazard ........................................................................................................................................ 3-255
3.13.2 History .................................................................................................................................................................... 3-255
3.13.3 Probability, Impact, and Mitigation Potential ......................................................................................... 3-261
3.13.4 Catastrophic Scenario....................................................................................................................................... 3-261
3.13.5 Summary Risk Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 3-262
3.13.6 Sources – Agency Input and Research ...................................................................................................... 3-264
3.14 Domestic Terrorism (Including Active Shooter Incidents and Civil Disturbances) ............ 3-265
3.14.1 Nature of the Hazard ........................................................................................................................................ 3-265
3.14.2 History .................................................................................................................................................................... 3-266
3.14.3 Probability, Impact, and Mitigation Potential ......................................................................................... 3-267
3.14.4 Catastrophic Scenario....................................................................................................................................... 3-269
3.14.5 Summary Risk Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 3-270
3.14.6 Sources – Agency Input and Research ...................................................................................................... 3-271
4.0 Critical Facilities .................................................................................................................. 4-1
4.1 History ................................................................................................................................................................. 4-1
4.2 Requirements ................................................................................................................................................... 4-2
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State of Wisconsin FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
4.2.1 Methodology ............................................................................................................................................................... 4-2
4.3 Summary of Assets ......................................................................................................................................... 4-4
4.3.1 State Highway System ........................................................................................................................................... 4-10
4.4 Vulnerability and Potential Losses ......................................................................................................... 4-11
4.5 Mitigation Potential .................................................................................................................................... 4-17
5.0 THIRA Maintenance ............................................................................................................ 5-1
Appendix A. Core Capabilities ................................................................................................ A-1
A.1 Descriptions ..................................................................................................................................................... A-1
A.2 Mission Areas .................................................................................................................................................. A_5
Appendix B. Core Capability Targets ..................................................................................... B-1
Appendix C. Estimated Required Resources .......................................................................... C-1
C.1 Resource Typing............................................................................................................................................. C-1
C.1.1 National NIMS Resource Types ........................................................................................................................... C-1
C.1.2 Other Standardized Resources ............................................................................................................................ C-1
Appendix D. State Preparedness Report ............................................................................... D-1
D.1 Assessment Methodology ......................................................................................................................... D-1
D.2 Core Capabilities Ratings ........................................................................................................................... D-3
D.2.1 Average Ratings ........................................................................................................................................................ D-6
D.3 Rating Assessment ........................................................................................................................................ D-6
Appendix E. Probability Ranking Criteria ............................................................................... E-1
Appendix F. Mitigation Potential Ranking Criteria ............................................................... F-1
Appendix G. Impacts of Catastrophic Scenario Ranking Criteria ........................................ G-1
Appendix H. Vulnerability Ranking Criteria .......................................................................... H-1

Section 1 Introduction iv 2016 THIRA/SPR
State of Wisconsin FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
1.0 Introduction
This is the 2016 State of Wisconsin Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
(THIRA) developed, promulgated, and maintained by the Wisconsin Department of Military
Affairs (DMA), Division of Emergency Management (WEM). This 2016 THIRA is an update to the
threats and hazards described in the state’s 2015 THIRA.
1.1 Purpose
This THIRA serves as the foundation of the State’s planning and preparedness efforts. Specific
uses include, but are not limited to, the following:
1.1.1 Unified Reporting Tool
In 2016 the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) transitioned to an online Unified
Reporting Tool (URT) for submittal of the THIRA. The submittal of this THIRA along with the
State Preparedness Report (SPR) represents the State’s contribution to the national endeavor to
base preparedness efforts on data-driven decision making. This THIRA and SPR data, along with
data from all other states and jurisdictions, is collected and reviewed by FEMA. This data is used
by FEMA and other federal agencies to inform the development of strategic plans, goals, and
priorities; develop technical assistance and support; better understand expectations related to
federal support; identify areas in need of improvement; and, measure progress made in making
the nation more resilient.
1.1.2 Preparedness Grant Programs
This THIRA is a requirement for the Homeland Security Grant Program (HSGP) and the
Emergency Management Performance Grant Program (EMPG).
1.1.3 Wisconsin Hazard Mitigation Plan
This THIRA serves as the required natural hazard risk assessment section of the 2016 update of
the Wisconsin Hazard Mitigation Plan (WHMP). The WHMP establishes the state’s mitigation
strategy and identifies the goals, recommended actions, and initiatives that will reduce or
prevent injury and damage from natural hazards. A FEMA approved hazard mitigation plan is
required for the state to be eligible for federal mitigation funds and certain other disaster
assistance.
1.2 Confidentiality Statement
This THIRA and SPR data include jurisdiction-specific preparedness data that is FOR OFFICIAL
USE ONLY (FOUO). The THIRA and SPR data shared with the Federal Government cannot be
distributed outside the Federal Government and is intended for recipients with a clear
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disaster/emergency preparedness mission and a valid need to know. Receipt of THIRA and SPR
data will be accompanied by this confidentiality statement and an interpretation guide.
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2.0 Methodology
This 2016 Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) is an update to the
natural hazard identification and risk assessment in the 2011 Wisconsin Hazard Mitigation Plan
(WHMP) and the threats and hazards described in the 2015 THIRA. This update focused on:
• Alignment with the recommendations from the Emergency Management Accreditation
Process (EMAP) undertaken by Wisconsin Emergency Management in 2015.
• Development of the required natural hazard identification and risk assessment element
for the 2016 update of the Wisconsin Hazard Mitigation Plan (WHMP).
• Development of the required risk assessment of state owned or operated critical facilities
element for the 2016 update of the WHMP.
• Consultations with subject matter experts to review, revise, and update applicable
content.
This THIRA update followed the process prescribed by the Department of Homeland Security
(DHS) Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Guide, Comprehensive Preparedness
Guide (CPG) 201, Second Edition, August 2013.
2.1 THIRA
The THIRA is structured around the CPG 201’s four step process depicted in Figure 2.1-1.
Figure 2.1-1: THIRA Process

Source: CPG 201, Second Edition, August 2013.
2.1.1 Identification of Threats and Hazards of Concern
The THIRA/SHMP document prepared for the 2015 EMAP identified 13 threats and hazards of
concerns. These threats and hazards were drawn from 2011 WHMP and the 2015 THIRA. In Step
1 the state reviewed these 13 threats and hazards with careful consideration of two key factors:
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• The likelihood of the state experiencing a specific threat or hazard.
• The significance of a threat or hazard effect on the state.
This review and consideration resulted in no significant revisions or updates to the 13 previously
identified threats and hazards of concern.
2.1.2 Context Description for Threats and Hazards
In Step 2 the state reviewed the applicable context descriptions in the THIRA/SHMP document
and the 2015 THIRA for the threats and hazards identified in step 1. The context descriptions
outline the conditions, including time and location, under which a threat or hazard might occur.
In the 2015 THIRA and accompanying State Preparedness Report (SPR) eight threat and hazard
scenarios were developed and submitted to FEMA. This included at least one natural, one
technological, and one human-caused hazard. An additional five general threat assessment were
developed for use by the state but not submitted to FEMA.
This review resulted in revisions and updates to the eight threat and hazard scenarios and the
five general threat assessments.
2.1.3 Establish Capability Targets
In Step 3 the state reviewed the capability targets in the THIRA/SHMP document and the 2015
THIRA for the context descriptions developed in step 2. The capability targets in the 2015 THIRA
were originally developed in 2012. In 2015 a comprehensive review of the capability targets was
conducted and only minor updates were needed. This year’s review included careful
consideration of the following three tasks:
• Development of impacts for each scenario for each core capability.
• Development of desired outcomes for each core capability.
• Development of capability targets for each core capability.
Each core capability must have at least one estimated impact, one desired outcome, and one
capability target. The core capabilities are described in the National Preparedness Goal and
listed in Appendix A.
In task 1 of step 3 the state reviewed the impacts developed for each scenario for each core
capability. These impacts should describe how the threat or hazard might affect a core
capability. Consistent with CPG 201 guidance the impacts were developed to be as specific and
include quantitative descriptions as much as possible to better gain an understanding of what is
needed to manage risk (e.g., rescue 500 people; provide; provide long-term housing for 200
displaced families; screen 80,000 event attendees for weapons; receive situation reports from
four partner agencies).
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