Apakah Draghi Akan Tingkatkan Peluang Stimulus? - Nico Omer

20 Pages·2014·0.43 MB·English

04 Desember 2014

Apakah Draghi Akan Tingkatkan Peluang Stimulus?

“For European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, the price of a weaker euro
to boost the economy and stave off deflation is a record exodus from the continent’s
financial assets. Domestic and foreign investors spurred 187.7 billion euros ($239bn)
of fixed-income outflows from the euro area in the six months through August,
the most in ECB data going back to the currency’s debut in 1999.”
-- October 28 – Bloomberg (Candice Zachariahs and Lukanyo Mnyanda)

The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
  considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Prospek inflasi untuk Eropa ke depan merosot ke rekor terendahnya (berdasarkan 5Y forward implied
5Y inflation) karena meningkatnya ketidaksabaran pasar untuk melihat kapan Draghi akan memulai
stimulus/QE-nya.

Mungkin hanya kebetulan saja saat the Fed mengakhiri QE, Eropa justru bagi akan memulai program
QE-nya.

Sebagai catatan, ECB telah mengurangi balance sheet-nya lebih dari $1 trilyun dalam beberapa
tahun terakhir ini.

Sehingga, ada ‘ruang’ bagi ECB melakukan program aksi beli sejumlah aset untuk tingkatkan
balance sheet-nya setidaknya sebesar 1 trilyun dalam tahun ke depan, menggantikan posisi The Fed.
Dan Draghi menginginkannya.

QE di Eropa sedikit berbeda dengan Jepang dan AS, namun sama-sama mengguyur uang ke sistem
perbankan.

Draghi juga mengetahui bahwa berdasarkan teori bahwa salah satu cara mengatasi masalah Eropa
adalah dengan devaluasi mata uang agar pertumbuhan dapat dengan mudah terpacu lagi

Oleh karenanya, ECB akan mengambil langkah apapun untuk melemahkan mata uang euro untuk
meningkatkan kompetisi dengan Jepang.

The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
  considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Di saat dolar AS mulai surut di pasar global, Draghi pun akan membanjirinya dengan euro.

Pekan ini, di awal Desember 2014, fokus akan tertuju pada ECB-Meeting, yang juga akan menjadi
pertemuan special, karena akan disertai dengan proyeksi ekonomi.

Menurut Draghi, pihaknya akan mengambil langkah lebih jauh jika proyeksi memburuk. Dan dengan
terus merosotnya harga minyak dunia, maka sulit untuk proyeksi ekonomi tersebut berubah menjadi
lebih optimis.

Draghi juga menunjukkan sikap seperti terdesak. Meskipun banyak diperkirakan QE tidak akan
dilakukan di pertemuan pekan ini, Draghi seperti sulit untuk menunda untuk memberikan pesan
penting mengenai hal itu di pertemuan kali ini.

Erope perlu euro yang melemah untuk mendongkrak ekspor dan inflasi, apakah ini akan jadi kado
Natal untuk Eropa, maka Draghi yang mengetahuinya.

Yohay Elam, dari Forex Crunch, memiliki proyeksi menarik mengenai pertemuan ECB pekan ini:

“With ongoing low inflation and a lack of real growth, the European Central Bank has hinted of
readiness to accelerate its expansion of the balance sheet.

The goal is to enlarge the balance sheet towards the March 2012 levels – a total expansion of around
1 trillion euros using various means: the targeted loans to banks (TLTRO) and the buys of Asset-
Backed Securities (ABS) are already in play.

We will know the results of the second TLTRO only in the following week. This leaves the big
question open: will the ECB also buy sovereign bonds? QE or no QE?

Recent hints show the determination of Draghi and VP Constancio to move ahead, with or without
German approval.

However, will Draghi announce it now? Hint that it will happen in Q1 or convey a calm message
before Christmas? This is the big question.

A lot depends on the updated forecasts for inflation and also for growth, which are updated in this
December meeting.

There is a good chance that Draghi will hit the pedal and make a big announcement towards QE,
citing deteriorating forecasts.”

The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
  considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Namun… menurut saya, kesepakatan belum terjadi karena Jerman sangat menentang. Dan
mengenai hal tersebut, berikut dijelaskan dalam 3 laporan Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com:

1) Bundesbank Blasts Draghi’s QE, Fears “Monetary Policy Is Hostage To Politics”

"The concept of an independent central bank clearly focused on price stability is neither
old-fashioned nor outdated," exclaimed Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann. As The WSJ
reports, he criticized the European Central Bank’s decision to buy private-sector bonds and
signaled his fierce opposition to purchasing government bonds, underscoring his reluctance to
back additional stimulus measures to combat weakness in the euro zone economy. "There is a
risk of monetary policy, especially in the euro area, being held hostage by politics," Mr.
Weidmann said

As The Wall Street Journal reports,

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Weidmann rejected calls from the
International Monetary Fund and within the ECB for Germany to cut taxes or ramp up
public spending despite mounting signs that its economy is succumbing to Europe’s
downturn. The European Commission should consider rejecting France’s 2015 budget,
which exceeds deficit targets mandated by the European Union, he added.

Mr. Weidmann said he stands by the conservative principles that have characterized
the Bundesbank throughout its nearly 60-year history: keeping inflation low; protecting
the central bank’s balance sheet from risks and strict separation from the financial needs of
governments.

His cautious stance stands in contrast with the ECB’s latest attempts to convince
investors that it will act forcefully to boost the flow of money to the economy, and may
raise doubts about the bank’s ability to gain the consensus needed to do still more
expansive steps if needed. It also exposes the deep rifts that still mar the Euro zone, with
countries including France and Italy calling for more flexibility while Germany insists on fiscal
rigor.

“There is a risk of monetary policy, especially in the euro area, being held hostage by
politics,” Mr. Weidmann said in an interview Monday at the Bundesbank’s headquarters in
Frankfurt, just a few kilometers away from the ECB.

...

The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
  considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Although buying bonds in financial markets isn’t forbidden, “the ECB’s mandate is more
narrowly limited than that of central banks in other currency areas,” Mr. Weidmann
said, referring to rules preventing the ECB from financing governments.

"These concerns are particularly acute whenever the central bank buys specifically
the most risky sovereign bonds,” he said. Besides, with government and corporate
borrowing costs already super low, such a policy would have limited effect. Tying fiscal
policies together through ECB bond purchases “is a dangerous path,” he said.

But it's not just the Germans...

On Tuesday the Dutch central bank delivered its own critique of ECB policies, warning
in its semi-annual report that that easy-money policies could cause financial instability and
fuel asset bubbles. “The medicine should not become worse than the disease,” it said.

Finally, Weidmann notes,

“Against the background of the announced target for the balance sheet, I see a risk
that we will overpay for these assets,”

Indeed, as Mises Patrick Barron concludes,

Of course the ECB will get stuck with low-quality loans purchased at inflated prices!
Economic logic makes this a certainty. If the institutions selling such loans could get as high
a price in the open market as the ECB will offer, they would sell them now. This program is
nothing more than a back door bailout to politically connected, privileged, special interest
groups. It is corruption on a grand scale. Of course the ECB has a good role model–the US
Federal Reserve Bank.

* * *

The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
  considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
2) Draghi The Dictator: “Working With The Germans Is Impossible”

The war of words between Europe's unelected monetary-policy dictator Mario Draghi and
Germany's "but it's us that pays for all this" Bundesbank has been gaining momentum since Jens
Weidmann penned his Op-Ed slamming Draghi's OMT 'whatever it takes' as "too close to
state financing" in 2012. A week ago, Weidmann stepped up the rhetoric by claiming ECB policy
is "hostage to politics" and has lost its independence - warning Draghi's dictatorial policies
were leading Europe down a "dangerous path." But now, as pressure grows from the Spanish
(record unemployment, record bad debt, record low yields), Italian (record unemployment, record
debt-to-GDP, record low yields) and French (record unemployment, treaty-busting-deficits, record
low yields) for Draghi to monetize more assets, he has struck back in Focus magazine, blasting
Weidmann is "impossible" to work with because the Germans "say no to everything." Dis-
union...

Weidmann (2012): "When the central banks of the euro zone purchase the sovereign bonds of
individual countries, these bonds end up on the Euro system’s balance sheet. Ultimately the
taxpayers of all other countries have to take responsibility for this. In democracies, it's the
parliaments that should decide on such a far-reaching collectivization of risks, and not the
central banks. Europe is proud of its democratic principles; they characterize European identity.
That's something else that we should bear in mind."

Weidmann (2012): "The central bank is responsible for monetary stability, while national
and European politicians decide on the composition of the monetary union. It wasn't the
central banks that decided which countries are allowed to join the monetary union, but rather the
governments."

Weidmann (2012): "I don't take my cue from the German government's position. That's part of
being independent."

Weidmann (2012): "I want to work to make sure the euro stays as strong as the deutsche
mark was."

Weidmann (2014): "There is a risk of monetary policy, especially in the euro area, being held
hostage by politics,"

Weidmann (2014): "These concerns are particularly acute whenever the central bank buys
specifically the most risky sovereign bonds... with government and corporate borrowing
costs already super low, such a policy would have limited effect. Tying fiscal policies
together through ECB bond purchases is a dangerous path."

The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
  considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
And now Draghi responds... (via Focus Magazine)

The conflict between ECB President Mario Draghi and Bundesbank President Jens
Weidmann over the course of the European Central Bank is more severe than expected,
and has become “almost impossible,”

The Italian ECB chief characterizes the Bundesbank president after statements from
witnesses internally on a regular basis with the three German words "No to all".

According to insiders, therefore Draghi is no longer even trying to win the Germans for
its programs.

Since July there was a direct contact between the two presidents of the ECB and the
Bundesbank outside of the two Council meetings in early September and early October.

* *

In other words, the Germans won’t let me do what I want - so I'm going to ignore them... this
leaves the Germans with few options - none of them 'good' for a European Union.

The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
  considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
3) As It Turns Out Deflation Is Good After All

Earlier today [November 28, 2014], in typical German fashion, the chief of the Bundesbank
poured cold water on Europe's latest round of demands that Germany carry the weight of the
rebound from the triple-dip on its shoulders, as usual, when Buba President Jens Weidmann
Friday rejected calls for a German stimulus plan, saying only structural reforms and more
competitiveness would kick-start euro zone economies. “Calls for a public fiscal stimulus plan
in Germany to boost the Euro zone economy are amiss,” said Mr. Weidmann in a speech for an
economic summit hosted by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung. He is, of course, right:
the longer Europe's insolvent, uncompetitive governments kick the can and force Germany to do
all the hard work, the longer Europe will be unable to get out of a hole that gets deeper with every
passing day. In short: Mr. Weidmann refuses to "get to work" for a bunch of corrupt, clueless
politicians.

He then proceeded to do something shocking: he was logical. Quoted by the WSJ, he said:
"Investment rates that are above the growth potential of a developed economy aren't likely
to boost prosperity—this applies to both public and private investments."

The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
  considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
More:

The German government shares Mr. Weidmann’s view. It says public investment can’t solve
the euro zone’s growth problem as structural reforms are needed. The International
Monetary Fund and neighboring countries France and Italy have called on Germany to
boost public investment. But Berlin has pledged only €10 billion ($12.5 billion) in additional
public investment over three years starting in 2016, hoping this would spur private
investment worth €50 billion.

Mr. Weidmann stressed that it is also wrong to believe central bank monetary policy would
be able to solve the bloc’s economic problems.

“It is an illusion to believe that monetary policy means can raise economies’ growth
potential permanently, or create lasting jobs,” Mr. Weidmann said. “In the end, this can
only be achieved by structural reforms, because growth and employment occur in
innovative companies and competitive products, and well-educated and highly
motivated employees.”

Therein lies the rub: Europe is allergic to structural reforms, and as we have shown in the past, it
blames its woeful fate on evil, evil "austerity" (somewhat paradoxical for a continent where record
debt gets recorder with every passing quarter), when in reality what is causing the ongoing
European depression is crime, corruption, cronyism and capital misallocation.

But none of that is news. What was news, and what was truly notable in Weidmann's statement is
his open jab at the stupidity of Keynesian economics itself. To wit from Bloomberg: ECB
Governing Council member Jens Weidmann says at event in Berlin that consumer prices in euro
area “are strongly influenced by the energy prices, which are at the moment experiencing a
positive supply shock.”

The punch line: "There’s a stimulant effect coming from the energy prices - it’s like a mini
stimulus package."

But wait a minute, isn't deflation under Keynesian voodoonomics, the biggest bogeyman
imaginable?

It turns out deflation is only bad when it impacts... the S&P 500. Otherwise deflation for such
things as energy prices and other input costs is suddenly bullish? So, by that logic, Japan with its
soaring energy costs as a result of its currency devastation must be smack in the middle of the
biggest depression ever. Which, of course, it is, as we warned would happen in early 2013.

For now, however, we are more focused on the official transformation of the German Central
Bank into the central bank of "Austrian" economics.

The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
  considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
What Do the Charts Say?

Presiden The Fed New York, William Dudley, belum lama ini mengatakan bahwa masih “terlalu dini”
untuk menaikkan suku bunga dan menurutnya lebih beresiko dibandingkan “terlalu lambat”:
“when interest rates are at the zero lower bound, the risks of tightening a bit too early are likely to be
considerably greater than the risks of tightening a bit too late.”

Sehingga menurut saya menarik untuk coba jawab pertanyaan apakah aksi beli dolar sudah
selesai (setidaknya saat ini) sebelum kita menuju ke sejumlah grafik EUR.

Berikut penjelasan Derrick Wulf dari No Easy Trade :

“It seemed almost too obvious. The European Central Bank was imposing negative interest rates and
devising new quantitative easing schemes to combat the growing threat of deflation; the SNB was
buying foreign currencies in "unlimited quantities" to cap the value of the Franc; the Bank of Japan
was madly printing Yen in a desperate frenzy to finally stir up domestic demand; and then the Bank of
China responded with its own rate cuts. All this, while the Federal Reserve was quietly ending its
quantitative easing policies and even hinting at forthcoming (2015) rate hikes.

The long dollar trade, and all its various expressions, soon became one of the most crowded trades
of 2014. Investors were not only long the dollar against euro and yen; they were short gold, silver,
copper, and commodities in general, even using the dollar to help justify late-cycle crude oil shorts in
recent weeks. Investors were also long stocks, as all these freshly printed euro, franc, and yen would
inevitably seek out "greener" pastures abroad.

But the dollar rally has started to lose momentum, and with year-end approaching it might not be
surprising to see some investors take a bit of risk off their books. Many of these investors still have
decent profits in their long dollar expressions, but the huge reversals in gold and silver yesterday may
provide a bit of a warning to those still in the trade. Moreover, with liquidity in the financial markets a
mere shadow of what it used to be, waiting until Christmas to trim positions might not be the most
prudent strategy for institutional managers. This turkey is cooked, and it's time to give thanks.

The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be
  considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The
report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence
of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure
prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.