Antifragile

60 Pages·2017·46.69 MB·English

Barry O’Reilly
Antifragile:
Designing the
Systems of the
Future
Barry O’Reilly
• Founder at Black Tulip Technology
• Startup CTO
• Chief Architect at IDesign
• CITA-P Certified Architect
• Trainer at IASA
• Chief Architect at Microsoft Consulting
Western Europe
• Worldwide Lead Solutions Architecture
Community, Microsoft
• IOT TAP Lead Western Europe
This Session
…is important
...is just a taster
...huge scope
...is potentially shocking
...might get a bit technical in places
Antifragility
• How do we build resilience and
reliability when we don’t
actually know anything?
“Thus, addressing future
challenges in aeronautics
is not simply to do what
we know how to do now
better: we need to do
things we currently do not
know how to do.”
Current methods of designing to requirements by definition produce
fragile systems.
Systems of the Future: The Perfect Storm
• Human systems are complex – automation mirrors this complexity
• Massive increase in complexity
• Systems of systems – interdependencies
• Dynamic Systems
• Huge scale
• Revenue critical
• Critical Infrastructure – fragile cloud
• Cloud based – technology churn
Evolution of Software
Object Component Service Complex
Procedural Modular
Oriented Oriented Oriented Systems
Digital Transformation & The Software Crisis
• Massive increase in complexity
• No skills to cope
• Programmers think in code,
not in systems
• Management stuck with
Taylorism
Fooled By Randomness
autodiscover.outlook.com
Heuristics
Modern Systems
• Volatility
• Uncertainty
• Complexity
• Ambiguity