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Anticipating Future Influences on Vocational Education. PDF

99 Pages·2011·3.92 MB·English
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ED 245 061 CE 038 103 AUTHOR Lewis, Horgan V.; And Others TITLE Anticipating Future Influences on Vocational Education. INSTITUTION Ohio State Univ., Columbus. National Center for Research in Vocational Education. SPONS A Office of Vocational and Adult Education (ED), Washington, DC. PUB DATE 84_ CONTRACT 300=83=0016 NOTE 10Ip. PUB TYPE Reports - Research/Technical (143) EDRS PRICE NFOl/PC05 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Basic Skills; Computer Oriented Programs; *Educational Change; Educational Improvement; *Educational Needs; *Educational Trends; *Futures (of Society); Job Training; Postsecondary Education; Secondary Education; *Vocational Education ABSTRACT in a study conducted to identify the major forces that appear likely to influence vocational education in the next three to five years, a general model or conceptual framework was developed and modified by suggestions from a panel of experts. The following were identified as major influences: (1) a gradual decrease in the number -of secondary students, with proportionately more minority and disadvantaged students at all levels and many more adult students with widely varying characteristics at the postsecondary level; (2) rapid technological change making it impossible to keep curricula and equipment up to date; (3) decreased time for vocational education at the secondary level because of stiffer academic requirements; and (4) continuing emphasis from the Federal level on facilitating access to education. The interaction of these and other broad influences indicates that secondary vocational education will have to include more communication and other basic skills; its teachers will have to change to meet the needs of a computer-oriented society; and postsecondary vocational education will be called upon to provide more occupational skills, especially to the disadvantaged, dislocated workers, displaced homemakers, and other adults. Other changes foreseen include greater links between vocational education and employers and an emphasis on providing new skills within existing programs rather than creating entirely new programs. (KC) *********************************************************************** * Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made * * * from the original document. *********************************************************************** ANTICIPATING :FUTURE INFLUENCES ON 'i.FOCATIONAL EDUCATIOR Morgan V. Lewis Jeannette L. Fraser Paul V. Unger us. oiliatiCarn w toucatiomo ilanos4a ovsTautt CP itiocaToota_ f OFJCATIONAL Rf SOURCf S INFORMATION CiNT(PI ifRIC1 dortonvol hal hoPn ,44404.404 IN UlfTHr organona444 144.44,01 t,,_ 44* (Jerson .. 049.4444411 4 NNW M44411 "kw. Nee. mode to WniWore niiwoo4ucl04 4W4eir Pords d pow er Almon% 41,00441.4 414 4e:& N4 4-ot 44.144,1y toperf000 "till Warn do tooly Poulton,. w in Vocational Education 1tiowil Center for Research The ohio State University 1960 Kenny Road_ Columbusi Ohiii 43210 1984 THE NATIONAL CENTER MISSION STATEMENT The National Center for Research in VocatIona/ Education's mission is to increase the ability of diverse agencies, institutions, and organizations to solve educatlonal problems relating to individual The National Center career planning, preparation, and progression. fulfills its mission by: Generating knowledge through research Developing educational programs and products Evaluating individual program needs and outcomes 414 Providing information for national planning and policy Installin§ educational programs and products o Opeiating information systems and Wvittes Conducting 1Radership development and trkining programs 3 FUNDING WO MAT ION NationalCenter for Research in Vocational Education, Project Title: Information for Planning, and Policy Contrart 30083(7016 Project Numbers: 051M1130001 Educational Act under Which Funds 94-482 Education Amendments of 1976, P.L. Were Administered: ' Source Office of Vocational and Adult Education of Contrart: U.S. Department of Education 20202 Washingtoni D;C; The National Center for Research in Vocational Education Contractor: The Ohio State University 43210 Columbus, Ohio Robert E. Taylor Executive Director: This publication was prepared pursuant. to a contract with Disclaimer: the Office of Vocational and Adult Education, U.S. Depart- Contractors undertaking such projects ment Education; under government sponsorship are encouraged to express freely their judgement in professional and technical Points of view or opinions_do not, therefore, mRtters. necessa:ily represent official U.S. Department of Education position or policy. Discrimination "Nu per- Title V! of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 states: Prohibited: on the grounds of race, son in the United_States shall color; or national_origino be excluded from participation in, be denf.0,4 the benefits oft or he_sdbjected to dis- Fed- crimination under any program or activity receiving Title IX of the Education eral finarial assistance." No person in the_United Amendments of 1912 states: States shall, on the basis of sex, be excluded from par-_ subjected ticIpation_in,_be denied the benefits rfi or be to discrimination Laufer any edutationprogram or activity Thereforei the receiving Federal financial_ assistance." National Center for Research in VocationalEducation Proj- receiving_fInaneial_ ect, like every program or activity assistance from the U.S. Department of Educations must be operated in ompliance with these laws. it 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS ?Age V LIST OF TABLES 4 .... ; vii . . ... ; 4 -4 4 4 LIST OF FIGURES . y P. ix . 4 . ... 4 . . . . . .. * X r EXECUT/E SUMMARY . ON Y 4 M . ..4l THE NATIONAL CLIMATE-, CWVTER I; ...... . IntrOduction l 4 4 The Model 4. Political Climate The Economid an4 4 , National Goals . ...... . 7 The Economic outlOolt 4. 9 Edue!ation Climate v. 13 TECHNOLOGY. . THE IMPACT or . . 2. C1 13 The Innovation Process 1 Technologies 16 . Factory Automatidn 17 , Office Automation 19 I. THE LABOR FORCE CHAPTER 3. 19 ..., . 4 41 Of Composition 1'9 Age ... ........ 4 22 Sex 23 ... . . . Minority composition . . . 25 of Labor Force , . . . . Educational Preparation 27 Workers Projected Demand fnr 27 Industrial Trends- 28 Job Growth and Qpeninge 28 Displacement ... . z . . . Expected Technological 30 Projections Another Set of 0 ; 33 EDUCATION. TRENDS WITHIN VOCATIONAL . . cimPrER 4; 31 Enrollment Trends- 35 Enrollment 4 4 . . Occupationally Specific . 37 I. Cooperative Education 38 Educatio n- Funding of Vocational iii TABLE OF CONTENTS - continued Page 43 IMPLICATIW4S FOR VOCATIONAL EDUCATION CHAPTER 5; 43 The Environment for Vocational Education . . . . . 43 Economy/Government .... Technology ...... 44 . . . . . 46 Demography/Labor Force 47 Secondary Vcrational Education 49 Development of Integrated Offerings 49 New Model of Teaching 49 Research on Electronic Instruction 50 Obtain the Support of Teachers 50 Postgecondary Vocational-Technical Education 51 Implications Affecting All Levels ... 51 Linkage with Employers .. . 52 Critical Skills 53 Responding to Technological Change 54 Concluding Remarks Aprzmux A. CONSTRUCTING THE MODEL OF THE INFLUENCES 57 ON VOCATIONAL EDUCATION 63 APPENDIX B. MTh SOURCES- APPENDIX C. DETAILED TABLES OF LABOR FORCES AND 67 VOCATIONAL EDUCATION TRENDS 85 Pt 1:7 F:R ENC F.S iv LIST OF TABLES Page TABLE LABOR FORCE REPRESENTATION OF MINORITIES 3.1 (BLACK AND OTHEh) 24 TABLE EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR 3;2 26 FORCE, BY PACE, YEA P, AND SEX PROJECTED AVERAGE ANNUAL JOB OPENINGS TABLE 3.3 1980-1990 AND TOTAL MMPLOYMENT CHANGE 1982-1995, BY OCCUAPTION 29 TARLF PROJECTIONS FORM FORECASTING INTERNATIONAL, 3.4 -- LTD 32 TABLE OCCUPATIONALLY SPECIFIC ENROLINENT IN 4.1 SECONEARY SCHOOLS 35 TABLE COOPERATIVE VOCATIONAL EDUCATION ENROLLMENTS 4; 2 AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND OCCUPATIONALLY SPECIP!C ZNMOLLMENT, 38 BY YEAR VOCATIONAL EDUCATION EXPENDITURES AS PERCENT 4.3 TABLE. OF TOTAL EDUCATION EXPENDITURES (CURRENT DOLLARS) 41 V LIST OF FIGURES Page and Malor inflUendeS on pdblic education Figure 1-1 2 training programs 20 The changing U;S; age distribution Figure 3 =i SbpUlatidn distribution by selected age Figure 3-2 21 groupings; by year Labor force distribUtiom by selected age Figure 3-3 21 groupingsi by year- L31loor force participation rates by sex; Figure 3-4 . 22 by year . 23 14bor force composition by sex- Figure 3-5 ; Minority labor force participation by sex rOure 3-6 24 (black an0 other) Total secondary enrollment_vs; total Figure 4-1 33 secondary vocational education enrollment ; ; 34 level Enrollment in vocational education by F410ro 4-2 . ; by Occupationally specific enrollment Figure 4-3 36 data source TOtal elucatiOn expenditures as percentage Figure 4-4 39 of total MIPi by year (WA); Vocational education expenditures Figure 4=5 dollarS). 39 by source; by year (constant 1981 Federal; state/ local expendituresasa Figure 4-6 education percentage of total: vocational 40 expen0itures vii FOREWORD undergoing have many __Therapid chary:3es that our_ecom5my is education will_play in implications for the role that vocational to identify the The present project was conducted caning years. influence voca- appearlikely_to major foi.:eS and factors that Once these tional education in the_next_three to five years. concerning them was influences were identifiedi information drawn for use in program assembled; analyzed; and implications alert The report ig_intende0 to planning and policy development. vocations.; education of major in- planners Anii policymakers for When developing plans and pro - foences that they Should consider five years grams for the next three to from the Office Of The project was conducted with support It Department of Education. Vdational and Adult Education; U.S received from fifteen pi.nel- henefited significantly from advice One of the panelists; Dr. istS who are listed inappendix A. senior consultant to the exer-utive Henry naViai in his_role as especially helpful at many director of the Natititial Center, was points in the prt)ject. EvaluatiOn and Policy This project was _conducted in the The project staff L. MCCAtiin. Division Which is directedby N. contri- authors _of this report and Mollie firth who included the Sherri first half of the project. i,utod significantly during the and was responsible for the Trayser served as project secretary word processing of this report. Pro= of_this document wefe Critiques of a preliminary draft External and Joel MagisoS. Vided internally_by Steven Gyuro COates of Joseph F.- Coates; reviews were CondOeted by Joseph F Motley and Indiana University. ..Muth Inc.; and Pobe-tt C. Uhrris, of Only the authorS, final draft: Constance Faddis edited the in this the final positions presented course; Kre responsible 66t report. t am happy to _acknowledge half of the National Ceteir On contributed to this to 411 those Who ;m4 etPresz our APPreciation report. Tayaor Robert Executive Director Research The National Center for in Vocational Education ix EXecUTIVE SUMMARY There is little question that the remaining years of the Responding to twentieth century will be a_ tine of rapid change; the coMbined influences of- technological change _and forceign com- petition; the economy is _shifting from one based primarily on the production and distribution of goods to one bated primarily On This shift has impli- the exchange of information and services. -c7ations for all of education as is reflected in the various reports by national commissions and task forces that appeared in A recurrent IWO examining the condition of secondary education; theme_in these reports is the uncertainty of the future and the need for a solid educational foundation that will enable today's students--tomorrow's workers--to adapt to the changes they inevitailly will face. In such a period of transition, it is difficult to know hoW hest to prepare young people and retrain adults for rewarding eiployment in a future Whose structure can only be dimly per- As difficult as the task is, planners and policymakers ceived. must make decisions based on the best available information and this report is designed to help them. in- The project described in_this report assembled relevant formation concerning_major_influences on vocational education and pol- that should be considered in the development of plans TO guide the assembly of this information, a general icies. devel- model or conceptual framework of the major influences was After several internal reviews and revisions; a dtaft_tif aped. expertise the m(Acq was seet to fifteen external panelists with The suggestions from these in a variety of disciplines. panelists were used to revise the node and then inforM6tion was Ti at information asseebled on most of the elements in the model, in this report; together With an integrative summary is presente ree environments most likely to be encountered by vocational education in the next three to five years. From the information assembled; the following were identi- f ied as major ,influences on vocational programs: a gradual decrease in the_ number ofsecon- Studeees: &fry itedeete: proportionally more minority and dis advantaged students at all levels; many more adult etudents_with wldely varying characteristics at the postsecondary level rapid rated of technological TechnologiCal change: 4 change making it virtually impossible to keep ine.litutinnal equipment and eurrieula up to date

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