Anticipating 2025

55 Pages·2015·4.46 MB·English

by  David W Wood

The future
of golf club
management

Anticipating
the unexpected

David Wood
@dw2
Chair, London Futurists Principal, Delta Wisdom
londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com
@dw2 Page 2
Spotted Anticipated
trends convergence
Positive
feedback
cycle
Built a software platform for collaboration
Vision: June 1998
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Newspaper ad revenue
?
US Newspaper
Advertising Revenue
Adjusted for Inflation
1950 to 2014
@dw2 Page 4
Collapse of newspaper ad revenue
US Newspaper
Advertising Revenue
Adjusted for Inflation
1950 to 2014
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2014/04/creative-destruction-2013-newspaper-ad-revenue-continued-its-
@dw2 Page 5
precipitous-free-fall-and-its-probably-not-over-yet/
Disruption via convergence
Are
impacted &
transformed
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Disruption: collisions and collapses
@dw2 http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/hmv-collapse-live-blog-follow-1534816 Page 7
Advice given to HMV CEO, 2002
“Greatest threats to HMV… online retailers, downloadable music…”
The dotcom bubble had just burst…
The CEO’s reply:
But the deeper trends were still up…
Trends of computation & digitisation
“I have never heard such rubbish”
“Downloadable music is just a fad”
“People will always want the atmosphere
and experience of a music store rather
than online shopping”
@dw2 http://www.philipbeeching.com/2012/08/why-companies-fail-rise-and-fall-of-hmv.html Page 8
Disruption: collisions and collapses
Blockbuster could
have bought
Netflix for $50M
Blockbuster
laughed at the
Netflix proposal
Netflix is today
valued >$20B
http://www.digitaltrends.com/home-theater/blockbuster-uk-administration/
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Kindle books vs. physical books
E-books leapfrog
physical books at Amazon
in less than 3 years
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
@dw2 Page 10
www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch