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Andersen and Bollerslev PDF

22 Pages·2012·2.13 MB·English
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Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models do Pravide ‘Accurate Forecasts ‘Forbea G, Anderson; Ti Bollerslev JInsernarionad cence Revtew, Vol, 39, No.4, Ssoapostzn on horecsstng and ‘Emuicad Methods in Macreoconomies and F-nauce (Nov. 1998), 885-905, Stable URL: lpzieksseaemgissh D0-8SPMS. 2A IWMI AS ICHRSSIAATSYSYSSL2O COS. EL erent Eran evden weeny public 9y Leoncmier Deptaiel te Uaveny Peanpylias, ‘Yourus of ue JSTOR axbive tices yuu accepkoxe u: JSJOR's Terns nd Cols of Ube, wsdl a bape jsoronguivers ba, [STOR Tera ent Cafes ve provides, a, Ua es Jue blamed pur pease, yay WU Ua a ene fs aul eal eos ables, a so ty se met ke JSTOR see aly Toe ve pene oeroxuril Plewoe cumiaet epi veo say free we Us wo, Buble liars be use a gener sur ugyjou rule pub Ba {tel cony any pat ot 4 ASTOR fmsibue mun uml We sme vpn wai geo the sere nes ge acon, JSTOR 4a ialependen olor poll gaze doco neg poser ac al che etary joumul, Luc use infurug eating ISTOR, plese imate! supporto epstre itr ct Fri Fob 16 WISI 2S ANSWERING THE. SKRPTICS: YRS, STANDARD VOT.A UIT ‘MODELS DO PROVIDE ACCIIRATE FORECASTS" By Tuaimoy Ge. Anorstn an Tit Burxaiie Aconoseton Cntr, US. Due Cicer ad Nasi rau of Eeomomie Reseae usa. ‘cig ps slit foocea. Cassar cr Bie exe ee on shine Bal ONAN his etre ik ser se rE he fetes sees ecm iy act mesic Rod on 1 exauoceria Yulsiiy pamsti fare‘ wr a esos wt os ft eo tant for dhe! ising of final sours. al wcuen otal © 4 Key Sapa 8 paiva prting and porto eloearian green, Ae such, accurate vesamish and ost lunesta of wuaty we cite forte hnp-emeustion and elation of evel an! ler ve iy Uaeries well mang aa eng steries, [ bs she el elie Et, cag ck Fo Smee SS om Ta CAS), Foc wet inpliy pronounce aii ckerng. Heer ce Ie by eonds ave Incl acinus hog Io seins sl Hse 1 fence, While the as: airy af cho cals cade told on dhe AUserstONe (Condtiral Hetrostedus3: LARCH) traessorkploncered hy Engle VDI thesis ra rg al here imeseie Hectane 9 Wok ly mado, Ast rier: ss ie anor NE HN a sal. repost’ cess pire toms a sexy high dogo: of interompeca) sslaity Sectatenors wee Hallley 011, (001%), Reiley st ale (F918, Ciysel wl {sea Staal (198%) fn sts. Yel i te a igh paca aw te parameter enlmeten isto sce find hat ard ality Poise eh Tite af eh wribii ce post squared sea £63, Camby ¢ a {1999), Files (AMT ud Jorva UD, 8 Tha ed ute stages eb bese sels xy oa ttt pct bie, It citi se bow la ell pei le vrodole widens accurate voy Tec hoe be feo entre tion bstesca goed solatiny forecasts and poas preiztse pre fo daly sqursa reno it Sioisr win, aso ckaonezate bot ighreqnencr ‘onaday dita Tuy be used soostectiely io lenny wee sett xh mcubiogtl ce-post Tate wat eee hk tation Halil the panes por pete aver wal spel vl jay sncle i sutghnnwat Tut the sce inate Sy ‘phere % deans an indopendenensan nvm, unt sirancs stochastic pose we the Lea: roi, evolesin wcerdaace mith tho purselar wodel eaeesie.* exer spank or fang te pret ele ul pty aoe Ie copire 1 aya pa ae i he eles alate Uae lhl sot aicesy obecrved 40 this appreac it act immediate apis te weet ie fesorast alton, StL ifthe meds oe cone spouted, thea B02) ~ By aea3) 02 shape onl the oe he mean el pes ton tet the lean ote 8 eng fu the Sea sti. toe, eke the quae innoration provides an uniased tins Ser the Aon walt Ft ny yeidwsny aoley enseeimerse die 19 the idicqmeacs stor form, 22. Tit oops ipicly dipiye 4 ge degre of everett abaersaskn sion (elaroe vessels Fates of he vane! esa siaton sera The vob swucom foe Cimmzcncnlls, he pene palcine tows of vokily rst en dg bs standacd ovosae eta sng 1 es 4 meaeate Ear epee Zola, ean Sueno ronseanne ofthe neve at nee in the ren grating provsas” This otees«Iuodarentls dite asprvath Rocke: tax soekiog to pete Ihe Tend valor Pracmvknes—ibeng tke wis omer 4 seb proscar nbn nan cinnn sn sy pe lt us Seraaeve ce-ost wont nesau:se Speateals, bdr gon the continuous tie ‘soshur volety cmmework deccloped by Nolo UO) aud Prost and Worker {owe desomseate bow Rieb-besters taal Joe ibe eugseeeoe ol was lnnwe expen sr eres cea spa wry eens "This er ere iffy winner's meee rere am idk stem in ct on dcp, same! aaa Thea he hase OLAMLTY rosrcasr EVALUATION a Io thee. re observation Fegan eee fo al He aati ints, th emus snecgee by peau reanarcncnl of He Kee sulle ‘ctor. Jn practoe, di innards heeass of data liniatings and a boat af kot rmisroruuctue features, ialoding aoaesuchranens trading ost bore se ‘erations radayporideyolelty acess, aad René piecds, Nopetbils ser tue al ve propel sb ty ees, Bane om higlelreysens rela yocls skutot sete ini alt eica saps i tsa Sally stave a nasal lec ay tans Pura, whe eval ave agai theo ines olay mesoutenssr find thee daily olay mole part vel, cealy expeining suit bal che sabi in the volegy factor Tew tings ave olnery -dvewith tbe exining evidence document dst oke xn ston seh» Hr ecote ARCLL amides are apprenimately Li mah tesco ich SHH eh ance’ prupenly Che ee 18 the gal onstrate ssn es Fenda ep D ws a 59) simon put towards the adequacy of larder iate-daly vlaite model.ng snd ‘erosurng weiss The laa for the remadvter of the super it a8 dlls, Netasva and Uta scenes est ih iy Section 2. pein tly are Denman 12S. 28 TOMS) end Tapanese You TS. Della OS) spl cachangs vai aug wid Ue poaulae GARCHL L)spectcavn of Bolesley (1935), Sasi. 3 prewdes «bet copia! Msiraea ol ste buy sgsiicaat ANCE! pirareiereeionces ‘pil © idence waa sl the eee oral Abani pene ‘ows aluly sumed sclaras Section 4 atonalian hays Gigs th Coats of sniusousine eeebasie wiley onede. Heals init Ro 9h nective ports of oc iss 4 We abow how te we of bghsiequend dt tray rice the eismemens error null im caning che pe len ly, ing sy spe Tes ine enue, 8 cre an in Seotion §Vihighte Fis Mee rnc Ligrtequcay based eae coats fhe vis cally iivent wonsisines roqsing do assteacy of he daly late fates fr the 10 Sechange raion doused in Seon 3. Sesion 6 eacudes 1h cagestions for fuse teach, Fine for talon, let hana the Hine £226) riko pi 8 nia ese, with Te wit ev espouding tonne day The sree absense tae ‘Svct toose of entin sly cencpounced res wil observations pot oF "tesa boritoo of Ln, then dete by. m1 Nest Rote me ANT AGL ANE HIST here fA. 2/ 5 fine we ie sonneada. codon ad anoonditions egeetations anomie Ip the ubeevion Pequency of the wuribles 42 > Intron sc wide dental Rr Pg 6) Ne Hy, “eels, wie ae consapending sane epeianre te got by Paya) ad Vl ela het redes fo ths somone iveitaneons tus Sse lyfe ae al he ingantaneces vorzaeo is devoted n ikowis, the ceased crssaven kp he ewan sizgle pet tation, opr ref ced 0 EL wkssan the versie veal eapecaton ie Benored EU Te face compan ll gal pain Figo atest ce terete daily porcsatage ruin Ts model seimutse sade ‘Re envinsoxtie onadansy ar bw lly retusa he DBA and the Sf apr exchange vals fem Chae Ws, rough September 3, 1 Mewimhs. to erpidl aseaPearple Fest arly owe ene agree te erie OS, gs OE RS ons ve ctokatye ala om ata 1, 1H auh Sentember 3h TE Paes fry voi e const fc ths Bosak ikea! eres ees of tuntioveusly-eronded Gd and ak shares thee asyoeeal en the eshank {Wonton neve snr he re year ample, Due othe sates oe at acty fovor the oston Hhe tetune Inn Tila S14 Creme Bean Hate (ALT theo Sooeay BLM G-MCT. se vied wsuling m4 lta ul 71RED ve ate redwing arming 28) dae, Lor uote dete zeae of he dala Cuttin se refer Alesse and Teese Qa, 18), eee tho iden GHe- outs DAS tau uss isda rom len prespete, us caine of slity elestesing im escent turns ubiquitous, Eee nei moving Fe wiki esfecing pkenomenon hus bec a ery £00 so 4 vestnch coar the pat ureace Many of chert sndios Hod tat #2 single GAMER 11 salle yal Ret appmowinetin othe obese cerca Appendoios in aeiy Usta ae ileal erty 9K), ee CF Egle Inu Baller (1860), and Fish (S801 Fr sens ofthe way evn Ba fy Mati, Ww gnter Holy eine Uke GAR LY rani. let, dent th wos wales fay Ina sa Elaine eo tine! Ln WE ¢ sapling qucsey fi era py the ‘rai elf doe sen hy Es allowing to, ava BY tine Boa igs thot ase Hed Hey ee ae WHO He AS eI aA Sag, BFE, ith ens gee aad ans Dae = " Go Gas the preter Svamiter Kathe ban daly aching ce enema 22 f= 1, ave sprted in Tale Te satiate fv the sai tl savant tech ako, Lighly ekaiteon and the sovuet Wild tere for a9 ARCH etfees, Foe fhe Me meaheimingly rej es Sah rates “Tbe Lmssie purtranten (Sie fr ae thnthonedr sal wovictnon one salaries sea 3s, Sy oqual 22 and 2°. resents. indiseng tha “ke GARCHU.1) aed doce goes jes of reckiag the sboceun iceay olny depoaslesies, Cen tem th the prot Htestre he neces or Hi + Ay SE he wo UM Te TGARUAME Te pl le ak Hol ss UR Tie ight Porter coupled oth the snes pasomcter aint, sonar skeen! “iverai asrst fore seule rturta og geet: ha aril marke l= fy highly sositle, Nonechecss, as we eon a de following seein, when jg by sting rer the wel pean pride poor lores, eR Owe Therma one ishein! Roum 1 i Vat Fra Beem, nent ths a foes aluanene cepted in tho bieaiule ely an sme MISk wits ema the [epost squared ax absclegetungovsr tho lero eresast bevizoa* Ue pee ‘seta sg ls ge ye se aN FE "ihe Sct ata 0s ne Bsr snc ocen Ce Suse oes 6 ANrHRPRE any HOLBY arly popalar mei cbtaineé vie is expos aquavedssture-wlusiy session, a Knee ding Mi Oat Bie eo sehote 1312042... Thi regression equation provide at wouoy toa oon yen proscdure toy wilooiny frets for he ccmttend. eeu treed ke ingen Zarenibe egrenir volkwing Rie ad aru T4S8)Hte fete sunt al sta eel apse sal Fey APs Mga Ffotees that in sopulation yy ad hye, egal en6 and uns, Speen” OF sorte. 1 pmaCRe che Sunes Tor grey yee MIO MDjoes 10 eecouiog ero, eubigg ov tnstnd cromyipveisles probes el s thnengapa iy MH Ihe regres cst Io By.” Nonelbetes Ine opts lie tere Thon 1 ef the Tyra i (2) res ee asc fe riiiy Sv cho petty mists by ives tf NSE LY Deiat seinen 66 any ve TRE Rly 4 IGEN ton saersne a8 Simp guvge uf whe deyge™ Of precy in the wly pcg et hence Ties ec son Tot he acy sca Ths unc of th Hy so ile He saturn f val fin acai i bee, pudklemars, Ratoual cans dsoon maki buges on "he urtcited Joe lily ea my ce eihmlen al eye une Ler hell yt hese thal Ihe eninge GAL Unleash eset ye ean eta tetucn mint by defini, Moai ce the GARCH ve.aity ferorur Ths regioog ia selies on the Sbesved seuarod cefune as ¢ aantce ot eae ‘oui, hi jotted to Mo ater tis they prvi ue exter tern bes woh west, lial wan mie neg evans ingly rewcisid wes he ens eoyment a aly 9 Ince, Tee sessfoecmponele ro ateaje the emling Re, anose me esl 3 Derstanink for ce value expected oie the Uo spose of comeet ale spectrin. Tiina thge ports cmier the ARCHIE. stern i th by BSE sr Sense atsTbe fey Try Ihe onus etn sly eh Seas iF) fn the ely vlan ker the subeoqkeat sea" thom Ceasber 1 ones if i we 2 tee ee eee ie brat am VOLAIITY FORECAST EVAELASION a 1508 shoals Sapir 2 29H, ast MOAT aFa OOH, casper” Thsse dapat re Ris aoa bao ithe cnc i he eae bere i ber saecltive rete ed earple petals Vor fosare, oe avike he Dreier power of CANCEL I ret hu we tras the Si I kk Mentone TORE TSA Dap ane Te (982) sport Reg 38, wile Pagar and Schwere (950 find n= OUT wih & CARCHKL 9 ri or mth gore US. stock mario tcuow tom ISSSMIES, Joon [DSS wer Se De ESRCIIEL spectre, uw hger aver ge sue of ly DENS slag fc YS THE ta lai Fe, Ne. Meling why ke a nd rat ea iy i the 138, and Topsh fem 1977 1981 be a EGARCH mee ‘Conso2t. COSP ope Ranging How 105 co. while Wes: cod Cou (G5) iad egg ro DOL se UES wth GARCIA reel oe Te dierent wee Sa estbnge tates fa /9P9-V0 Toney rebel res ie beer reporter 0, loth (9, ead Be (io, Canis ant Fieve 1969, TDhnbon and Mare 1550) Fennhors and Henstn (19684 Fgloeht 98%. Heynca and Kae O04), foion CI. Sehve: {los 15%en Scene ne Sega UY Preditcbs, Bes serail 0s Mise reper tnt the Movsare faves The pean tet dad ‘nical ne seta eisai and on pe aie esa, SN! soasequonty Me of Unite a, asi ee a Sghigh Tne cb ccna ede Ihe puke ale shel hype tl se peta 4 GAIA Y an sation 2 ad 8). Tay y= Blea denote Oe wanda kato the stardardzedinnevacone 2 aD Shaw Cae pened he Aitioral eto 90 BH, 0 Ry Bag 2G Hg) Baler Sle Unt we te Void Ba} Halt Dold AL neste Ue oR va var gghtBecD Mees Netbar(Maa ea He aa Beg Ui Bad isan he owe ee EDU fan sade rege eee aft Minded tie de youn ~ 7 we ANDERSEN AND BOLLERSLEY spt (ue fom ans A, or the nape in evan Fogel G50 ign Natditnd VatwaltSae) Cabal Big 20 Bol pt opi: astm ir ot ite ams ue ue eral aur, Why cumin sinc lly tegen, ts evi siet of les determination ‘inven ssoved a ln pariaulae. ite eoodiconel Gouna eons ee Jf, sun ‘sovrety specified GARCH(LI) sudel's Pounded rem whove Sy) wl with Suauicouelft-afes mors tbo eye Bou sow lover. Muzeower. wih ei PcaDotT 08 TOE by HO yy ae FOU walle Gee Fy Lae Sigil below the upper Ml Ip weer on, re aoa more loi gov fel pation sala ai ete (Got asin te aly DB ad VE GARCHEL Tpatrneto aims Oy seal i Uo Tne puttin Head GO ans 8 speech: WS Utsee Ris urs Signy Righey thar Ske aetat onoseae qutotsample station cleuatd hove, th vlust ers in los aceadate wea th Fyne 08 he Seta Ueercur. Thus owe for soeu ypovted toe th Ee Cn) fe hail ve I eager high HB Trgre te atnal a aay sopra i "Tv ar vache ail GARE 1 dl de nota ae of ths esi in tho suuured DMS reneos i leo exit oor gue Le gh te 280 ey al wag toes. re ste 1, 872 tough Seger St, 1M thing wise sexual np cli say ssi vclags Phe an HS 1, is dirintivesonepared ta Che varie hv, Tee seston farther explo ‘hs ame wii th sata of conte ite stecate volt aude he eosin sli enna ak ti te how Rly we te const eh sandard volaity mndoleHossest, “is Ending noe nae sete the aodeing unumutl ive of wheter thea russ atl poor mound ely Tresies Heke urs eal a nti rte <n ares ‘se the eww ied sll hoatoh samp bine seas iy walle se an GARCHO,D) mstsl, This appuoach bas thy raed tangs teat sans eee prising med and moet Stivatitos pricing theorie ars enti lar Eamewerk. Spicisealy, we anuime chee dhe fonantarsone rekon ace genmatee by ie cepa mma & ap 54M, ‘Spats ud Bude GS fra Seidel ul ee ceed ice ease a ana Gone Teens a ea shuts ff denotes standard Wiener yogis." Be Tins T2aaea, ‘Re nina MSE tvteat forthe coudnnal stance For tbe oneaday etn, 9 Tai en zeal expressed Ch Aba, (eu, Lionsgate the ane tat ig es, Egger) Ths, ay dieses daly ARCH faceeaa. nose tic in 2 MS) see elves ope: one baie em the coats empl Zach auntie a eit pia Ine eleamt non ley oly Ine ecg Thi yy of rene natin lor the ree

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Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models do Provide . corresponding variance operators are given by Var(m,,,(') and Var(m)(').
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