Ancillary Benefits for Climate Change Mitigation and Air Pollution Control in the World's Motor ...

17 Pages·2008·2.11 MB·English

by  Michael P. Walsh

ANRV337-PU29-01 ARI 10March2008 19:23
Ancillary Benefits for
Climate Change Mitigation
and Air Pollution Control
g
or
s.
w
e in the World’s Motor
vi
e
alr
u
n Vehicle Fleets
n
nals.aonly.
arjoural use Michael P. Walsh
m on
ded froor pers Ienmteariln:[email protected],Arlington,Virginia22207;
aF
8.29:1-9. Downlo162 on 04/12/08.
h. 20095.23.
c. Healtby 190. AFinrnstup.uRbelvi.shPeudbolinclHineeaaltsha2R0e0v8i.e2w9i:n1–A9dvanceon KmoetyorWveohridclses,greenhousegases,urbanairpollution,diesels,
bli January3,2008
u fuels,blackcarbon
P
v. TheAnnualReviewofPublicHealthisonlineat
Re http://publhealth.annualreviews.org Abstract
u.
nn Thisarticle’sdoi: Theglobalmotorvehiclepopulationhasgrownveryrapidlyinthe
A
10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.091307.083257 pasthalfcenturyandisexpectedtocontinuetogrowrapidlyforthe
Copyright(cid:2)c 2008byAnnualReviews. nextseveraldecades,especiallyindevelopingcountries.Asaresult,
Allrightsreserved vehiclesareamajorsourceofurbanairpollutioninmanycitiesand
0163-7525/08/0421-0001$20.00 arethefastest-growingsourceofgreenhouseemissions.Strategies
existtoreducebothproblems,butmanycountriesemphasizeone
overtheotherratherthanpursuingstrategiesthatreducebothcon-
cerns.Usingdieselasanexample,thisarticleillustratesthatitisnow
possiblenotonlytoreducecarbondioxidewiththeincreaseduseof
dieselvehiclesbutalsotoimproveurbanairpollution.Doingsore-
quiresbothstringentemissionsregulationsandcleanfuels.Several
principlescontainedintheBellagioMemorandumarehighlighted
asguidesforpolicymakers.
1
ANRV337-PU29-01 ARI 10March2008 19:23
INTRODUCTION China,EastAsia,CentralandEasternEurope,
andtheformerSovietUnion,whichwillstim-
On-road motor vehicles, including cars,
ulate growth in vehicle populations in these
GHG: greenhouse trucks, buses, and two and three wheelers,
regions.
gas are a major source of urban air pollution
Becauseofthesefactors,onecananticipate
and an increasingly important contributor
steadyandsubstantialgrowthintheglobalve-
to global anthropogenic carbon dioxide and
hiclepopulation(15)followingthehistorical
othergreenhousegases.Greatprogressinre-
trendsasillustratedinFigure 1.Theglobal
ducingfromgasoline-fueledcarsemissionsof
vehiclepopulationexceeded1billionunitsin
urbanairpollutantsandtheirprecursorshas
2002andhascontinuedtoclimbsteadilysince
occurred in the major industrialized coun-
then.
tries,andstringentrequirementsfordieselve-
org hiclesarestartingtobephasedin.However, Since1990,∼27millionadditionalmotor
ws. thevehiclepopulationandvehiclekilometers vehicleshavebeenaddedtotheworld’sroads
e andhighwayseachyear.
vi traveled are expected to continue to grow
e
alr rapidlyinthefuture,especiallyindeveloping
u
n
nals.anonly. ctooudnattreie(1s,5w).hichwilloffsetmanyofthegains TVERHENICDLSEIPNRWOODRULCDTIMOONTOR
arjoural use theTsthaetupsuorfpgolsoebaolfetfhfoisrtsarttoicrleediuscetocornevvieenw- Overall growth in the production of motor
om son tional and greenhouse emissions from road vehicles, especially since the end of World
aded frFor per vtoehriecdleusc,etogriedeennhtiofuysaeregaasseisn(wGhHicGhss)trcaotnegfliiecst W∼5armIIil,lihoansbneeewnmquoittoerdvreahmicalteics,priesrinygeafrrotmo
c. Health. 2008.29:1-9. Downloby 190.95.23.162 on 04/12/08. wttbasqahcmouinhattaphttehlsilm.ctesoyatLerrunsaaivsgntaepiehdcndrgtedoc-itedvdloitseuumhrttciesoyaleialtru,erdcseaiiotcmdenrh-saudbpaetcelnelteinocgvdeaceehitfio.hfiintfogiescvhnrlerlseeinesngfstohtuiaortrlrtneesuitangrrolugbanplataeefonrtglooeliaurxemiy--rs mFmclrcgiineoiloisoooggmen2brrau,0eevprabr0delaeuvt3hirhpentei2aahrocgd,nonilnmcbewdde6lseueio0iwtmtscswthtoemahiietrnrojaheoecicnvlneyrrlpeiceype1rolaboexr9ensoaced7ipreedncu0renubugcoadreecdnpberfdeeuodrdyrioncrn(2∼e3dtt50il;20u)oy10a0.cenl5mm0esmA,atd5iiis∼rolml(elless1i1iaothalo4ecmt6non)seh.6wssiuuDlpmyntlnniheraoiiieiatattlnnar--sst
bli TRENDSINWORLDMOTOR
u eachyear.
v. P VEHICLEFLEETS Overthepastseveraldecades,motorvehi-
e
R
u. Thethreeprimarydriverscatalyzinggrowth cle production has gradually expanded from
nn in the world’s vehicle fleet are population one region of the world to another. Initially
A
growth, widespread urbanization, and eco- andthroughthe1950s,itwasdominatedby
nomicimprovement,andallthreefactorscon- North America. The first wave of competi-
tinue to increase, especially in developing tioncamefromEurope,andbythelate1960s,
countries.AccordingtotheUnitedNations, European production had surpassed that of
theglobalpopulationincreasedfromapprox- theUnitedStates.Overthepasttwodecades
imately2.5billionpeoplein1950toslightly thecarindustryinAsia,ledbyJapanandmore
more than 6 billion today, and this figure is recentlybyChina,hasgrownrapidlyandnow
projectedtoincreasebyanadditional50%to rivalsthoseintheUnitedStatesandEurope.
approximately9billionby2050.Mostofthis BothLatinAmericaandEasternEuropeap-
growth will be in urban areas in developing pear poised to grow substantially in future
countries. decades.
Annual GDP growth rates over the next Nowhere has the growth been greater
two decades are forecasted to be highest in than in China, as illustrated in Figure 3.
2 Walsh
ANRV337-PU29-01 ARI 10March2008 19:23
Table1 Globalwarmingpotentialsoftransportationpollutants
Nonmethane
Carbon Methane Nitrous Carbon hydrocarbons Nitrogen
GWP dioxide(CO2) (CH4) oxide(N2O) monoxide(CO) (NMHC) dioxide(NO2)
100-yeartimehorizon 1 21 310 3 11 7
Source:References16,17.
Chinaisnowestimatedtobethethirdlargest trousoxideandmethane,relativetoCO ,are
2
producer of cars, trucks, and buses in the identifiedinTable1.However,othervehicle-
worldandisrapidlybecomingamajormarket related pollutants also contribute to global
aswell.Itisalsobyfarthelargestproducerof warming, although their quantification has
g
or motorcycles. been more difficult; these include CO, non-
s.
w methanehydrocarbons(NMHC),andnitro-
e
vi gen dioxide. CO emitted from vehicles is
e
alr TRENDSINWORLDMOTOR eventuallyconvertedtocarbondioxideinthe
u
nn VEHICLESALES atmosphereandintheprocessconsumeshy-
nals.aonly. NorthandSouthAmericacombinedremain droxylradicals,whichmightotherwisereduce
ded from arjouror personal use tfEaohpuleplroroloawpraeegcdehascnitnldogmsR3eaul0ryks%sbeityao.fEfoAturhsriecoaagpirlneso,,cbiltnuarlcudmlciunkdagsri,nkOaegnctE,deaaanbnstudieasbreinyss matGrnoeWdpthoPNassnpOehlixesctroeiccndoconiezntnroitTnbreaua,tbtiaeolevnte1sor.,ySginpilmocolbtuieladanlritnlbyGga,cHNtkhGgMors.oHeTuaCnhtde-s
8.29:1-9. Downloa162 on 04/12/08. F 2ASo0fUsi2taGVh0we,slo,iimfbwllacailllurillkkyrcer,eoeltcy,nnabttbriusentrtuatehonenveddteolsrlaiabcrglgoelhengttshtrtiteonrmwuulacaetrkrhgakses,iesstiet.nexfxcprplaeueccdcttiiteonedndg, tierdrerienpb,Romuraeteters.nede1taatfrolrcoPhCmeaOrnset,halNreoeMnoaCrHlsigolCiimncsoa,alnatenc[1edCr9nnh9iea0tdnr]ogtIgehnea(tnItePrbdgClioaoCcvxk--)
h. 20095.23. foreachvehiclecategory. caanrdboonth,eorrssoouortceesm,iitsteadpfrootemntdGiesHelGveohwicilnegs
c. Healtby 190. MOTORVEHICLEEMISSIONS ifnorpsaortlatrortahdeiastnioonw.aHlbaendsoen(reetfleacl.ti(v4i)t,y)foerffeexc-t
bli TRENDS ample,estimatetheGWPforsootis∼2000
u
v. P Motor vehicles emit large quantities of car- for20years,∼500for100years,and∼200for
Re 500years.SimilarlyJacobson(6)estimatesa
u. bon monoxide, hydrocarbons, nitrogen ox- blackcarbonGWPrangefrom∼800to1200.
nn ides,sulfuroxides,andsuchtoxicsubstances
A Using a different metric, CO2 Equivalency
as benzene, formaldehyde, acetylaldehyde,
Factor, M. Delucchi (personal communica-
1,3,butadiene,fineparticles,andlead.Eachof
tion)ascribesavalueof4684toblackcarbon.
these,alongwithsecondaryby-productssuch
as ozone and small particles, can cause seri-
ousadverseeffectsonhealthandtheenviron- EMISSIONSREDUCTION
ment.Becauseofgrowingvehiclepopulations PROGRESSTODATE
andresultingemissions,thefractionofhealth-
In almost every corner of the world, for ev-
damagingpollutionfrommotorvehiclesisris-
ery type of road vehicle and fuel, there is a GWP: global
inginmanycitiesinthedevelopingworld.
warmingpotentials
The GHGs most closely identified with
the transportation sector are the main Ky- 1Becauseofdifficultyreachingagreementontheappropri- NMHC:
atequantification,specificGWPsforthesegaseswerenot nonmethane
otogases,CO2,nitrousoxide,andmethane. containedinthemostrecentIntergovernmentalPanelon hydrocarbons
Theglobalwarmingpotentials(GWPs)ofni- ClimateChange(IPCC)report.
www.annualreviews.org • ClimateChangeMitigation 3
ANRV337-PU29-01 ARI 10March2008 19:23
clear trend toward increasingly more strin- graveconcernsaboutthelikelihoodthatad-
gent emissions requirements. Over the next dition of manganese to gasoline could cause
decade,thispatternismovingtowardsimilar widespreaddevelopmentaltoxicitysimilarto
controlsonoff-roadvehiclesandfuels.Driv- thatcausedbytheadditionofleadtogasoline.
ingthesetrendsareseveralfactors: Therefore, participants issued a declaration
(cid:2) Continuedgrowthinthenumberofve- stating,“Theadditionoforganicmanganese
hicles (especially in China and other compoundstogasolineshouldbehaltedim-
partsofAsia)andtheirconcentrationin mediatelyinallnations”(7).Preciseinforma-
urban areas where pollution levels re- tionisnotavailable,butaccordingtothecom-
mainunacceptablyhigh, pany’sWebsite,morethan150refinersin45
(cid:2) The growing accumulation of health countriescurrentlyusetheMMTadditive(8).
org studiesthatshowadverseimpactsatin- Sulfurlevelsingasolineanddieselhavebe-
ws. creasinglylowerlevelsandinthecaseof guntobereducedandregulatedinmuchof
vie particulatematter(PM)atvirtuallyany the world. This regulation will result in im-
alre level,and mediatereductionsofemissionsfromcurrent
nnu (cid:2) Advances in vehicle technology and vehicles and is a necessary step for enabling
arjournals.aal use only. Aftceelmreaaisnmsiofounresel-sltehvtahenlas-t8at0ar-reyeeafasaorcneilaxibptaleetriincmogsetnlsot.wues-r ttluhecteihounnsoeflrooofgmiimetspotrdhoaavyte’csdagcnaasrtoealmliynsoetv-se,afinmldtoedsrtise,osafentl-dhfeoutpehloeeldr-
om son ing the children of the world to determine vehicles(11).Sulfurintransportationfuelsis
ded fror per the significant adverse impacts of lead (9), teimcuitlatetedamsastutlefru—rdbiootxhidpeo(lSluOt2a)notsrswuiltfhatewpidaer--
aF one can now foresee the possible elimina-
8.29:1-9. Downlo162 on 04/12/08. taisnihnogodnwgIonnrfodiluonenanFddeissfg,irauoa,rrmteehge4aadlbasdoesrtlleoilnsawsrei,gnaSegsurAbtehf-mrSisiaaciphannraiorncabgonluedAmnuftm.rriiApcea-ss rtitsmieiaoocnpnnhgosniornfotfrglaooenmigcmtoyvipsmeytaohscptiteaccsmcloeotns,sn,,thrianhoonculwdlmuteodvvatieinasnril,gbhpiienlsoaiittlloytrl.huont,Tgaaeanhdcnteivdoaemixnmfiicodcieraesde--s
c. Health. 200by 190.95.23. ittwshhhoeneuwolgmwohirnmlcdgooemirsvepildtelheeatandenclfyer9eo5leef%,aitcdsooftnforasexlildeicg.eiratHiysn,oogwliwnhteheyveseiosrol,lvdeeaairlnd-- (ifndNueerwO(iCnxe)mO,fuhi)s,eysldaisonrnohdscaapscrabohrontiinntcrdsuoell(arHettedeCcm)th,hanectotaelrmorbgao(irPneksMe.mt)iSon.ungSlofuuoxl-r-f
bli stillbeingsoldin∼19NorthAfrican,Central
u inhibitstheperformanceofcatalysts,increas-
v. P European,andAsiancountries?EthylCorpo- ing emissions of all conventional pollutants.
Re ration,theproducerofleadforgasoline,pro-
u. videstheanswer,notingthattheleadbusiness Sulfur levels in both diesel and gasoline are
nn alsofallingrapidlythroughouttheOrganiza-
A “continuestogeneratestrongcashflowforthe
tionforEconomicCooperationandDevelop-
company”(8).
ment(OECD)countries,andlow-sulfurfuels
Unfortunately,somecountriesarereplac-
areonthehorizoninseveraldevelopingcoun-
ing lead with other potentially hazardous
triesaswell(11).
metallicsubstitutessuchasmethylcyclopenta-
Thethreedominantregulatoryprograms
dienylmanganesetricarbonyl(MMT).2Data
in the world are the United States (includ-
presented at the Brescia Workshop raise
ing California, which has unique regulatory
2TheEthylCorporation,theprincipalproducerofMMT,
wasfoundedinthe1920stomanufacture,market,andsell formed into NewMarket Corporation, the parent com-
tetraethylleadasanoctane-enhancingadditiveforgaso- panyofAftonChemicalCorporationandEthylCorpora-
line.ItstartedoutastheGeneralMotorsChemicalCom- tion”to“maximizethepotentialofitsoperatingdivisions—
panyin1923andbecametheEthylGasolineCorporation petroleumadditivesandtetraethyllead.”AftonChemical
in1924.In1942,thenamewasfurthersimplifiedtothe assumedproductionandsalesofMMT,andEthylretained
Ethyl Corporation. In 2004, “Ethyl Corporation trans- thetetraethylleadproduct.
4 Walsh
ANRV337-PU29-01 ARI 10March2008 19:23
authorityundertheU.S.CleanAirAct),the of CO, HC, NOx, and PM and other tox-
European Union (E.U.) and Japan. Look- instoaverysmallfractionofwhattheywere
ingatoverallsalesofcars,trucks,andbuses, per kilometer driven, and the major chal-
Figure5belowillustratestheregulatoryroad lengenowistoimplementthesetechnologies
map for different categories of vehicles sold aroundtheworld.
in2005.Forexample,ChinaandIndiahave TheprognosisislesspromisingforGHGs.
adoptedtheE.U.standardsformostvehicle As illustrated in Figure 6, CO equiva-
2
categories,althoughtheyhavelaggedseveral lentemissionsfromthetransportationsector
years behind the European Union in imple- grewsignificantlyintheDeveloped(Annex1)
mentation.About60%oftheworld’sfleetis countriesbetween1990and2004(12).Infact,
following the E.U. regulatory road map for growthinthetransportationsector,24%,was
g passenger cars, and almost 30% follow the byfarthelargestofanyduringthisperiod,as
or
s. U.S. or North American Free Trade Agree- showninFigure7.
w
e ment(NAFTA)path.Notsurprising,thevast
vi
alre majority, more than 90%, of diesel cars are
nu following the EU path. More than 60% of STRATEGIESTOREDUCE
n
arjournals.aal use only. ldfioaglrhldotsw,trwtuhhceekrseEaf.osUlml.oowsrteatnthhdeaanrUd7s.0S.%.Neoomfiohstsehiaoevnrystcrsoutuacnnk--s GPTOhRrLeEeLEbUNasTiHctIOeOcUhNnSoElogGy-AbSasEedSaAppNroDachAeIsRcan
m on try outside of Japan requires the Japanese beusedtoreduceGHGsinthetransportation
os
ded fror per stanIdtairsdism.portant to emphasize two impor- sector:
8.29:1-9. Downloa162 on 04/12/08. F tUdlduaeuntnttietiyotrnepvmdoecihoinSninetcttaslrte.thoesFeslasiratruyosnstpude,endsstdtohoanetnfhmdtEeeauocerrshdntonstlpioirageeldaohonwgt-pioeUtarsenlnddadi;nohbtdnhyeapewtvrohyeille---l (cid:2)(cid:2) ShdSvaaeohnrtuitdfcsitsenei,ndgegvmmetiohasnisclidooleawnttseoerroc-yrhcanofruorbelvoolongelifuefifnusc,teiaealsrnnydcayngdrseteaannd---
c. Health. 200by 190.95.23. fsmSoueerfcfieno,ctnaiiedtln,pitsraloylibtmhsltepormouinrgsgthafeonnrttthwtethohaitcatimhdtdhetrheeiegrsyasspattrhaeinesddeenansravidrgisrrnooaewnrde--. GigaH(cid:2)tTiGnhgReeemthdSieustascritieoenqngusotisfhrteeamCnudaeselanirftodosfsrwmnaiinotahdtoihtrshaiczesuevrdmervehaeninchtdllieycaltlieientsd--.
bli
u ing,manydevelopingcountrieslagbehindthe dustry.AttheU.S.nationallevel,mandatory
P
v. UnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionbyfive Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE´)
e
R
u. ormoreyearsinimplementingthestandards. requirementshavebeeninplacesincethemid
nn The United States and Japan have put 1970s,butwehaveseennosignificanttight-
A
stringentcarandtruckstandardsinplaceover eninginmorethan20years.Theserequire-
the past decade and are not likely to revisit mentswillresultinlowerCO emissionsbut
2
these requirements for several years. Con- do not address the other greenhouse emis-
versely the European Union has just com- sions.TheEuropeanUnionontheotherhand
pletedadoptionofEuro5andEuro6light- negotiated a voluntary agreement with the
duty vehicle standards to go into effect in Europeanvehicleindustrytoachievecarbon
2010 and 2015, respectively, and is develop- dioxidetargets(similaragreementswerealso
ingaproposalforEuroVIheavy-dutyvehicle reachedwiththeJapaneseandKoreanman-
requirements. ufacturers). This agreement broke down in
Technologiesarenowinthemarketplace early2007becausethetargetof140grams/km
orrapidlyemergingthat,incombinationwith by2008willnotbemet.Japan’sapproachhas
cleanfuels,canlowerroadvehicleemissions also focused on fuel consumption using the
www.annualreviews.org • ClimateChangeMitigation 5
ANRV337-PU29-01 ARI 10March2008 19:23
bestinclassatagiventimepointtostimulate Commission, France, Germany, Japan, and
industry-wideprogress. the United States. Representatives from the
Brazilwasthefirstcountrytomakeasig- United States included regulators from the
nificantshifttorenewable,lower-carbonfu- federal government and from the State of
els,butmanycountriesaroundtheworldare California.Themeetingfocusedonairemis-
nowpursuingsimilarapproacheswithmixed sionsfromroadtransport,includingconven-
success. California recently adopted carbon- tionalandtoxicpollutantsaswellasGHGs.
basedfuelrequirements,whichshouldchange Atthemeeting,asetof43principleswerede-
thefuelmixsubstantiallyoverthenextdecade, velopedbyconsensusandrepresentthecol-
andtheEuropeanUnionispursuingasimilar lectiveexpertopinionoftheindividualspar-
path(3). ticipatinginthemeeting.
g Advanced vehicle technologies including Two of the overarching principles of the
or
s. batteryelectriccars,hybrids,plug-inhybrids, Bellagio Memorandum can serve as useful
w
e andfuelcellsaremandatedinCaliforniaand guides for addressing the issues related to
vi
alre stronglyencouragedinJapanwiththeresult dieselvehicleregulation(2).First,cleanvehi-
nu that significant advances are occurring (13); clestrategiesshouldpromoteairquality(in-
n
arjournals.aal use only. marooAruenvdtahrtahineet3yw0oo0fr,0lad0p0ipnrho2ya0bc0rh6ied.svteohirceldeuscweevreehsiocllde cleelmul.disSisneiocgonansidra,ntndoexciwocsnv)veaehnnidtciloeGnsHatlaGnpodlgalroudatsalsnfotisnrsGphaoHruaGlld-
m on kilometersdrivenincludingcongestionpric- befuelneutral.
os
ded fror per itnaxge,sbaures mraapkidingtriannrsoita,dsanindmveahniyclpearatnsdofftuheel withPerrehgaaprsdtthoemmootsotrsvterihkiicnlge tdreevnedlsopismtehnet
aF
8.29:1-9. Downlo162 on 04/12/08. mCwreoaadlrnWuilfddcoaeh.rtenoCtirhayO)ero2rri(tfeeud.begule.c,ctoviEoonnUlsusu,nmtAapinurtysiotrnaGagl(irHeae.,geGm.C,sCeannh(taiesnd.gaat))o.,,, rrptishaeepsanauniedldttiriineneavstgEoieoliluun.nrtcDowiropeioneear,ssloeedwlfw-ihndfieudireleeieslg.eeh∼Ndltt1-olediwcoguhhuhtnytte-oroddelfoiueigt2ssyyetnhlvaeivenswehdthircciutaclheerleerss
c. Health. 200by 190.95.23. oBmrraanHfzoyiloc)cuw,osesueivdngetnrre,iififefcsocaroantrnstosuioednfnefdorrirtnethngseeawwrtehoaberullden.idmfeuprealwscta(sey.goin.f, aalyirsegeahCrats-hlsdiaonugatgoy,a.dTinBiaeieinswcegaalsunasw,efoearonoetfdhbloaSolnowdnuietndhdiecuKsoneuotlinrleftjurauie,esltswatshaufexecrewhes
bli
u transportationonclimatechange,theoverall andtheintroductionofrelativelylow-priced
P
v. growthtodateinallvehiclecategoriesisover- diesel cars, India’s light-duty diesel popula-
e
R
u. whelmingthecontrolefforts.Andsomeofthe tionisalsoskyrocketing(10).Withtheexcep-
nn effortstoaddressclimatechangehaveproven tionoftheUnitedStates,however,light-duty
A
counterproductivetourbanairpollution.The diesel emissions standards remain more le-
nextsectionusestheexampleofdieseltoil- nientthangasoline-fueledvehiclestandards,
lustratepotentialpitfallsandopportunitiesfor a situation which has been perpetuated with
achievingcobenefitsinthefuture. the recently adopted Euro 5 and Euro 6
requirements.
Conventional diesels typically use only
DIESELCARS:ACASESTUDY
70% of the fuel by volume of a comparable
In June 2001, a group of 18 experts met in gasoline engine, significantly reducing per-
Bellagio, Italy, to develop a set of princi- mileCO emissions.3Evenwithoutpollution
2
ples for the next generation of government
actions that will shape future motor vehicle
3Somedataindicate,however,thatownersofdieselvehicles
technology. The group included top regula-
drivemoremiles,therebyoffsettingsomeoftheinherent
tors and experts from China, the European CO2benefits.
6 Walsh
ANRV337-PU29-01 ARI 10March2008 19:23
controls,dieselsprovideanautomaticbenefit Europe, their diesel car emissions standards
forCOandHCcontrolaswell.Dieselfuelhas aremuchweakerthanforgasoline-fueledcars
theaddedbenefitoflowvolatility,whichvir- and do not yet require advanced NOx and
tually eliminates evaporative HC emissions. PMcontrols.Becausetheyarenotfuelneu-
Theprimaryconcernsfordieselenginesare tralanddonotpromoteairqualityandgreen-
NOxandPMemissions,whicharemajorcon- housegoalsinparallel,theEuropeanUnion’s
tributorstotheurbanPM,ozone,andNO current diesel emissions requirements vio-
2
problems. late the two overarching principles of the
RegulatoryrequirementsintheEuropean Bellagio Memorandum highlighted above
Union,JapanandtheUnitedStateshaveall (2).
been pushing improvements in diesel emis- Once ultra low sulfur diesel is available,
g sionscontrols,andnewdieselcarsbeingpro- othercountriesthatadoptstringentstandards
or
s. duced for each of these markets are much suchasthoserequiredintheUnitedStatescan
w
e cleaner than in the past. With the introduc- alsohavecleandieselcarsthatprovidethedual
vi
alre tion of ultra low sulfur diesel (maximum of benefitofimprovedurbanairpollutionaswell
nnu 15ppmatthepump)andTier2andLEV2 asreducedCO2emissionsandfuelconsump-
arjournals.aal use only. srgteaassnpodelicantreidv-sefuilnye,ltehddeivUeeshneliicteledvseShatriacetleenssoawnadesnCtcealrleiifanongrnthiaaes, tpsiyloesnt:e.VmTe.hhiicslhesigahnlidghfutselasnsohtohuelrdBbeellatrgeioatpedrinascia-
m on marketplace. Dieselcars,therefore,areapotentiallyen-
os
ded fror per is aThhieghm-oefsfitccireinticcyalPfeMatufirleteor.f Tclehaisnsdyisetseemls veimroisnsmioennstsatlalyndsaorudnsdrecflheocitcinegwtohdenay’sstrsitnatgeenotf
aF
8.29:1-9. Downlo162 on 04/12/08. ftthcohrlaaerrzpscoaesurbsdogotorhthhuceasabeppxeptuhocoralarleuuousssutettashngdeatcisepeersfamareromltiimtPcitcleMetdhss.uebhPbvyaMsesthdrbaiiisceetlesteeeh,nltewoivmdhpeeiohacnssih--st toicanhanmcredbryaeouarantnns’eadsledrCsenhseOiengua2allptttblirhaveacenreileso.ifikmwOtsspitnasahurceuetlrfrscwubooraiusnnedn,aitcetrelhseiremaeblsafaaluitasneen.dlwceUbeicddlonaebnctlikyy-l
c. Health. 200by 190.95.23. tagbireefionevudebnrudbytytshaamelslawoalrlo—gbreeldscboatouocdsbaeyleldoeadifleihskueeelltalrylpathhafirunotmeircgalpeanasnrcittaziercancltediinos—onto-s afitehvnceaiveiislnraaotbmlnlyemesNaetnrnOidtnaxglnlelyeenwvstoetlvusoenahdrsiecgtqloaeusriosretelqainnuPediMraceradorfissrl,teaietvrreeissnsanuanofld--t
bli
u whichcanpenetratedeeplyintothelungand lowdieselcars.Thisisespeciallytrueinareas
P
v. cause the greatest health damage. (As noted thatexceedhealth-basedair-qualitystandards
e
R
u. earlier,blackcarbonsootfromdieselsisalso forozone,PM,orNO2.
nn apotentGHG.)
A
Fortunately high-efficiency wall flow fil-
CONCLUSIONS
ters not only reduce more than 90% of the
PMmassemissions,butalsotheyreducethe Transportationremainsamajorsourceofur-
number of ultrafines by more than 95%, to ban air pollution and is the fastest growing
levelssimilartoorevenslightlybelowlevels sourceofGHGemissions.Avarietyofstrate-
emittedbygasoline-fueledvehicles. giesareavailabletodramaticallyreducetrans-
Current new vehicle standards in Japan portation’s contribution to both problems.
and the United States require the use of Reducingtheamountofmotorizedtravel,for
these high-efficiency PM filters; ultra low example, will reduce both urban and global
sulfur diesel is available in both countries pollution. Unfortunately, other transporta-
as a necessary prerequisite to assure that tion strategies can trade off urban vs. global
these devices work properly. Although ultra pollution,asillustratedintheexperiencewith
low sulfur diesel is also widely available in light-dutydieselsinmanycountries.Europe
www.annualreviews.org • ClimateChangeMitigation 7
ANRV337-PU29-01 ARI 10March2008 19:23
iscurrentlythelargestmarketfordieselcars, Looking forward, regulators should heed
andotherhigh-growthdieselmarketssuchas the advice contained in the Bellagio Memo-
IndiaandChinaarefollowingtheEuropean randum.Amongthe43principles,thefollow-
emissionsroadmap.BecauseEuropeanemis- ing short list should guide policy makers in
sionsstandardsfornewdieselcars,evenout addressingcleandiesels:
to 2015, are more lenient than for gasoline (cid:2) Cleanvehiclestrategiesshouldpromote
cars, consumers must choose between high air quality (including air toxics) and
efficiency and low CO on the one hand or GHGgoalsinparallel.
2
cleaner urban air on the other hand. This (cid:2) New vehicle standards for GHG
is true despite the fact that diesel technol- emissions and conventional pollutants
ogynowexiststhatcanenabletheattainment shouldbefuelneutral.
g of both objectives—reduced GHGs and im- (cid:2) Vehiclesandfuelsshouldbetreatedasa
or
s. provedurbanemissions. system.
w
e
vi
alre DISCLOSURESTATEMENT
u
nn Theauthorisnotawareofanybiasesthatmightbeperceivedasaffectingtheobjectivityof
nals.aonly. thisreview.
arjoural use ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
m on
ded froor pers IappreciateveryhelpfulcommentsfromKirkSmiththroughoutthepreparationofthispaper.
aF
8.29:1-9. Downlo162 on 04/12/08. L21I..TiEACEnnOnRreF2erAs,agpTGnoyndUoFseFroRdutuooeEnlngdElDCo.cbo2,IanTH0lo0emEen1vyH.DiSBr.ote2nal0lnma0dge7aino.rtdIamnsl:teaeAmrnndoGarhatloienobadnalutalhmlUCimpmodupaonettrceoai.rltWoivvneeahCss.ihlcCelieanonnpgoTstelorincnaysn,.:sDDpprooCircn.t:,acIi1tpCi9loeCn–s,2TvP1eahJsiuscelnneesg,eaBrneVdlleafhugicieolles,
c. Health. 200by 190.95.23. 3. FsIettnaaarnelyrdr.eaglhrlytd.AtcfpEao:.r,/g/SCowpavwel/irlfwoloirwn.tnghicaeDa.ircP,bcAatorr.tnoo1nrfg:sut/SeedcMlohsnc,tiuBacamnrladeananndrattdslyA//sUbiRse.C,lUlD-a1nge0iilvuo0.c0Cec-hna2igl0iMlf0i.s,7AhB-,.0eper0dtk2fae-ll.Pe2yT0/D017.aP.vDAis.Flohwttcpa:r/b/ownwfuwe.l
bli
u 4. HansenJ,SatoM,KharechaP,RussellG,LeaDW,SiddallM.2007.Climatechangeand
P
v. tracegases.Philos.Trans.R.Soc.LondonSer.A365:1925–54
e
R
u. 5. Honda Motor Co. 2004. World motorcycle facts and figures 2004. Corp. Commun. Div.,
nn HondaMotorCo.
A
6. Jacobson MZ. 2005. Correction to “Control of fossil-fuel particulate black carbon and
organicmatter,possiblythemosteffectivemethodofslowingglobalwarming.”J.Geophys.
Res.110:D14105
7. Landrigan P, Nordberg M, Lucchini R, Nordberg G, Grandjean P, et al. 2006. The
declarationofBresciaonpreventionoftheneurotoxicityofmetals.Am.J.Ind.Med.(Spec.
Issue)50:709–11
8. NewMark.2007.Newmarket.http://www.newmarket.com/index.htm
9. RosnerD,MarkowitzG.1985.A‘giftofGod’?:Thepublichealthcontroversyoverleaded
gasolineduringthe1920’s.Am.J.PublicHealth75:344–52
10. RoychowdaryA.2007.Thegreatguzzle’spuzzle.DownToEarth15(18):26–36
11. U.N.Environ.Program.2007.Openingthedoortocleanervehiclesindevelopingand
transitioncountries:theroleoflowersulphurfuels.Rep.SulphurWork.GroupPartnersh.
CleanFuelsVehicles,Feb.,Nairobi,Kenya
8 Walsh
ANRV337-PU29-01 ARI 10March2008 19:23
12. U.N.Framew.Convect.Clim.Change(UNFCCC).2006.Nationalgreenhousegasinven-
torydatafortheperiod1990–2004andstatusofreporting.FCCC/SBI/2006/26.http://www.
unfccc.int/resource/docs/2006/sbi/eng/26.pdf
13. WalshMP,KalhammerFR,KopfBM,SwanDH,RoanVP.2007.Statusandprospects
for zero emissions vehicle technology. Rep. ARB Indep. Expert Panel 2007. Prepared for
StateofCalif.AirResourc.Board,Sacramento,April13
14. WardCommun.2006.WardsMotorVehicleData.Southfield,MI:WardCommun
15. WorldBus.Counc.Sustain.Dev.(WBCSD).2004.Mobility2030:meetingthechallenges
tosustainability.Sustain.Mobil.Proj.,FullRep.Geneva:WBCSD
16. HoughtonJT,JenkinsGJ,EphraumsJJ,eds.1990.ScientificAssessmentofClimateChange—
ReportofWorkingGroupI.Cambridge,UK:CambridgeUniv.Press
g 17. HoughtonJT,MeiraFilhoLG,CallenderBA,HarrisN,KattenbergA,MaskellK,eds.
or
s. 1996.ContributionofWorkingGroupItotheSecondAssessmentoftheIntergovernmentalPanel
w
vie onClimateChange.Cambridge,UK:CambridgeUniv.Press
e
alr
u
n
n
nals.aonly.
arjoural use
m on
os
ded fror per
aF
8.29:1-9. Downlo162 on 04/12/08.
h. 20095.23.
c. Healtby 190.
bli
u
P
v.
e
R
u.
n
n
A
www.annualreviews.org • ClimateChangeMitigation 9
Walsh.qxd 12/3/07 17:27 Page C-1
g
or
s.
w
e
vi
e
alr
u
n
n
arjournals.aal use only. FWigourlrde m1otor vehicle population.
m on
os
ded fror per
aF
8.29:1-9. Downlo162 on 04/12/08.
h. 20095.23.
c. Healtby 190.
bli
u
P
v.
e
R
u.
n
n
A
Figure 2
Annual production of cars, trucks and buses.
www.annualreviews.org ● Climate Change Mitigation C-1