Ancillary Benefits and Costs of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

583 Pages·2000·3.23 MB·English

«
Ancillary Benefits
and Costs
of Greenhouse
Gas Mitigation
ENVIRONMENT
W R I
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Ancillary Benefits and Costs
of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation
Proceedings of an
IPCC Co-Sponsored Workshop,
held on 27-29 March 2000,
in Washington D.C.
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FOREWORD
On 27 March 2000, I had the distinct pleasure to welcome to Resources for the Future (RFF)
researchers from around the world convened to discuss the ancillary benefits and costs associated with
measures to mitigate the growth of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
These ancillary effects (think of them as inadvertent consequences) are important to study because
preliminary research shows that they might be of considerable quantitative and qualitative
significance. For instance, controlling carbon dioxide emissions to reduce the likelihood or degree of
global warming might, at the same time, reduce emissions of other pollutants that adversely affect
human health and the environment. These “bonus” benefits ought rightly to be included in any
accounting of the good that will be done by greenhouse gas mitigation. Similarly, greenhouse gas
control policies can also have unexpected adverse consequences--and these, too, should be counted.
It gives me equal pleasure to welcome readers to a collection of interesting and important papers.
Contributions are found from top-flight researchers from the United States and Europe, as well as from
several of their counterparts from the developing world. Inclusion of developing country perspectives
is significant for several reasons, not the least of which are that:
i. many of the most significant adverse effects of global climate change are expected to
occur in the developing world, principally because their relatively lower incomes will
make adaptation more difficult; and
ii. over time, emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from the developing
world will gradually overtake those from the developed world.
Thus, on both the “cause” and “effect” dimensions, the developing world is increasingly important.
RFF was honoured to host this event and act as one of its co-sponsors. Other organisations playing a
major role include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development and the World Resources Institute. While I am recognising all those
whose work was essential to the success of this workshop, I would like to single out Devra Lee Davis,
Alan Krupnick, Gene McGlynn, who initiated, organised and conducted much of the meeting and also
edited these proceedings.
Paul R. Portney, Ph.D.
Senior Fellow and President, Resources for the Future
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The Proceedings and the Expert Workshop on Assessing the Ancillary Benefits and Costs of
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies, 27-29 March 2000, was possible due to the generous support of
the following organisations: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Resources for the Future (RFF), World Resources
Institute (WRI), The Climate Institute, US Department of Energy, World Bank, W. Alton Jones,
Statistics Norway, US Environmental Protection Agency, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
(US) and the Rockefeller Family. Devra Davis (formerly with WRI and now with Carnegie Mellon
University), Alan Krupnick (RFF), and Gene McGlynn (formerly with OECD), led preparations for
the workshop and provided the leadership for the project resulting in completion of the proceedings.
Jiahua Pan (IPCC), Jan Corfee-Morlot (OECD) and Bill Rhodes (USEPA) also provided useful
guidance in the organisation of the meeting and completion of the proceedings. Paul Schwengels, Joel
Scheraga and Myra Frazier (USEPA) also advised on the meeting as did lead authors from the IPCC
Working Group II and III. Miranda Loh (WRI) assisted with organisation of the workshop and
Andrew Gregory, Jane Kynaston, Kathleen Mechali, and Carolyn Sturgeon (OECD) provided
technical assistance for production of the proceedings.
Internet Site: Further information on the Workshop and all of the papers in this volume may be found
on the OECD’s web site:
http://www.oecd.org/env/cc
Additional information on ancillary benefits may be found on the web sites for RFF, WRI and the
IPCC (Working Group III):
http://www.rff.org
http://www.wri.org
http://www.rivm.nl/env/int/ipcc
IPCC co-sponsorship does not imply IPCC endorsement or approval of these proceedings or any
recommendations or conclusions contained herein. Neither the papers presented at the
workshop/expert meeting nor the report of its proceedings have been subjected to IPCC review.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword
by Paul Portney.............................................................................................................................3
Acknowledgements..................................................................................................................................4
Preface.....................................................................................................................................................7
Ancillary Benefits and Costs of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: An overview
by Devra DAVIS, Alan KRUPNICK and Gene McGLYNN.......................................................9
I. FRAMEWORK FOR ESTIMATING ANCILLARY BENEFITS AND COST..................51
The Ancillary Benefits and Costs of Climate Change Mitigation: A Conceptual
Framework
by Alan KRUPNICK, Dallas BURTRAW and Anil MARKANDYA.......................................53
Baseline Issues in the Estimation of the Ancillary Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation
Policies
by Richard D. MORGENSTERN...............................................................................................95
Extending Integrated Climate Assessment Models to Include Ancillary
Benefits: Problems and Prospects
by Hugh PITCHER...................................................................................................................123
The Ancillary Health Benefits and Costs of GHG Mitigation: Scope, Scale, and
Credibility
by Devra DAVIS, Alan KRUPNICK and George THURSTON..............................................135
Estimating Ancillary Impacts, Benefits and Costs on Ecosystems from Proposed GHG
Mitigation Policies
by Dale S. ROTHMAN.............................................................................................................191
Estimating Ancillary Impacts, Benefits and Costs of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies
in the Transport Sector
by Stef PROOST.......................................................................................................................211
II. CASE STUDIES OF ANCILLARY COSTS AND BENEFITS........................................235
Asia and Latin America
Preliminary Estimation of the Potential Ancillary Benefits for Chile
by Luis A. CIFUENTES, Enzo SAUMA, Hector JORQUERA and Felipe SOTO..................237
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Health and Economic Values for Mortality and Morbidity Cases Associated with Air
Pollution in Brazil
by Ronaldo SERÔA DA MOTTA, Ramon ARIGONI ORTIZ and Sandro DE FREITAS
FERREIRA...............................................................................................................................263
Evaluation of Health Effects of Pollution
by Victor Hugo BORJA-ABURTO, José Alberto ROSALES-CASTILLO,
Victor Manuel TORRES-MEZA, Germán COREY and Gustavo OLAÍZ-FERNÁNDEZ......275
The Health Benefits of Controlling Carbon Emissions in China
by Richard F. GARBACCIO; Mun S. HO; and Dale W. JORGENSON...............................343
Ancillary Benefits Estimation in Developing Countries: A Comparative Assessment
by David O’CONNOR..............................................................................................................377
Europe and North America
Reduced Damage to Health and Environment from Energy Saving in Hungary
by Kristin AUNAN, H. Asbjørn AAHEIM and Hans M. SEIP................................................397
Ancillary Benefits of GHG Mitigation in Europe: SO , NO and PM reductions from
2 x 10
policies to meet Kyoto targets using the E3ME model and EXTERNE valuations
by Terry BARKER and Knut Einar ROSENDAHL.................................................................413
Economic Evaluation of Health Impacts due to Road Traffic-related Air Pollution: An
impact assessment project of Austria, France and Switzerland
by H. SOMMER, N. KÜNZLI, R. SEETHALER, O. CHANEL, M. HERRY, S. MASSON,
J-C. VERGNAUD, P. FILLIGER, F. HORAK Jr., R. KAISER, S. MEDINA,
V. PUYBONNIEUX-TEXIER, P. QUÉNEL, J. SCHNEIDER, M. STUDNICKA.................451
Estimating the Ancillary Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies in the US
by Dallas BURTRAW and Michael A. TOMAN.....................................................................481
III. LINKS TO POLICY-MAKING...........................................................................................515
Policy Frameworks for the Ancillary Benefits of Climate Change Policies
by David PEARCE....................................................................................................................517
Reducing Greenhouse Gases and Air Pollution
by STAPPA and ALAPCO.......................................................................................................561
IV. ANNEX................................................................................................................................575
Participants list...................................................................................................................................575
Agenda................................................................................................................................................587
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PREFACE
The science of climate changes remains a matter of intense scientific debate and much public
speculation. While the underlying science continues to evolve, efforts to figure out what are
responsible policies to mitigate these potential impacts are also developing. In order to provide a
rational means for choosing among policy alternatives to address this global problem, a number of
national and international research and policy organisations are mounting major research efforts. The
development of systematic methods for creating and assessing policies and programs to mitigate the
direct and indirect impacts of climate change, and for estimating the costs and benefits of these
policies, is the subject of an important and lively discussion in the technical and policy literature.
It is widely understood that policies devised to reduce or mitigate greenhouse gases (GHGs) can have
positive and negative “ancillary effects” (one of many terms used to describe this phenomenon).
Positive ancillary effects could include, for instance, reducing health-damaging emissions of
conventional co-pollutants such as those tied with fossil fuels. Negative ancillary effects might include
the morbidity and mortality from increased use of diesel fuels, which may, nevertheless, lower GHG
emissions. The full array of these side effects of potential GHG mitigation policies is not always well
understood, and consequently not integrated into policy-making.
On 27-29 March 2000, an international workshop to consider these issues in more detail was held,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD), Resources for the Future (RFF), World Resources Institute (WRI), The
Climate Institute, US Department of Energy, World Bank, W. Alton Jones, Statistics Norway, US
Environmental Protection Agency, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (US), the Rockefeller
Family and the Economy and Environment Programme for South East Asia.
The workshop was designed to:
− provide information for the technical assessment efforts of the UN’s Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Third Assessment Report of Working Group III on
Mitigation of Climate Change;
− integrate the quantification and consideration of ancillary effects of climate policies more
clearly into the national and international policy process; and
− establish data gaps and research priorities.
This publication includes many of the papers presented at the workshop. Papers and presentations are
also available at http://www.oecd.org/env/cc
This event brought together many of the leading experts on this topic to discuss their work and
identify key issues for further analysis. The three days of the workshop covered methodologies and
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frameworks, case studies, and links to policy-making. The papers in this volume of proceedings may
have incorporated comments made at the Expert Workshop, but no formal review has been organised.
The views expressed in this volume are those of the authors and not those of the co-sponsors.
Discussants and participants contributed significantly to the Workshop, although their remarks are not
included in this volume.
The workshop advanced understanding on common elements of an analytic framework for addressing
this issue among the participants from more than 40 countries. The workshop also facilitated a
dialogue between analysts in this field, as well as highlighting recent case studies from developed and
developing countries. In particular, discussions emphasised the need to consider the complex role of
national and multi-national institutions in affecting the level of ancillary effects. It also highlighted
some continuing areas of debate, including valuation of health impacts and differences in approach
between industrialised and developing countries. Much work remains to be done.
The workshop confirmed that positive and negative ancillary effects can be critical to the development
of effective and efficient policy-making on GHG mitigation. Participants in the workshop considered
data gaps and methodological issues relevant to improving the assessment of ancillary benefits and
also laid out a research agenda that can be found at http://www.wri.org. The challenge remains how to
incorporate current understanding into the evolving policy discussions and to better incorporate this
complex issue into an already complex debate.
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