Analyzing Elections

322 Pages·2004·2.74 MB·English

Analyzing Elections
Rebecca B. Morton
Department of Politics
New York University
th
7 Floor, 726 Broadway
New York, NY 10003
212-998-3706
[email protected]
forthcoming, W.W. Norton
Analyzing Elections page 2
Chapter 1: The Why and What of Studying American Elections............................................7
Bush v. Gore, September 11th, and American Elections.............................................................................7
Actors and Institutions.................................................................................................................................9
Plan of the Book.........................................................................................................................................11
Part I: The Fundamentals of American Elections......................................................13
Chapter 2: Why Voters Vote (or Don’t)....................................................................................13
Three Things...............................................................................................................................................13
Three Puzzles.............................................................................................................................................14
Puzzle 1: The Forty-five Year Lag......................................................................................................14
Puzzle 2: The Puzzle of Participation..................................................................................................15
Puzzle 3: The Paradox of Not Voting...................................................................................................16
Consumption versus Investment................................................................................................................18
The Consumption Benefits from Voting..............................................................................................18
Togetherness...............................................................................................................................................19
Consumption and Citizen Duty Redux......................................................................................................22
Voting and the Collective Action Problem..........................................................................................22
Voting and Private Selective Incentives...............................................................................................23
Bribery...................................................................................................................................................25
Voting and Social Selective Incentives................................................................................................26
Incentives and Voting Today................................................................................................................27
Voting Rationally and Turning Out Irrationally.......................................................................................28
Benefit versus Office Seeking Groups.................................................................................................28
The Forty-Five Year Lag Revisited...........................................................................................................31
New Voters and Parties.........................................................................................................................31
Fixed Costs of Group Mobilization......................................................................................................31
The 1970s and Women.........................................................................................................................33
The Final Puzzle – Why is Voting Lower Now than in the 1950s and 1960s?.......................................34
The Decline of the Precinct Captain as Mr. Goodbar..........................................................................34
Forcing a Square Peg in a Round Hole................................................................................................36
The Good, the Bad, and the Institutions....................................................................................................38
Making Voting Cheap and Easy................................................................................................................39
The Motor Voter Bill............................................................................................................................39
Punching Out.........................................................................................................................................40
Voting by Mail, by Shopping, on the Net . . .......................................................................................42
Financing Turnout......................................................................................................................................45
Candidates, Parties, and Interest Groups...................................................................................................46
Appendix to Chapter 2...............................................................................................................................47
Chapter 3: Candidates and Parties..............................................................................................48
Brothers in Office.......................................................................................................................................48
Why Moderation Attracts in American Elections.....................................................................................49
Voters Preferences................................................................................................................................49
Why Did Bush Move?...........................................................................................................................50
Moderation: Virtue or Vice?......................................................................................................................51
Candidates Do Not Moderate...............................................................................................................51
What do Voters Think?.........................................................................................................................52
What do Candidates Say about their Positions?...................................................................................52
How do Candidates choose after Elections?........................................................................................53
A Battle for the Left...................................................................................................................................53
How Parties Affect Candidate Positions...................................................................................................54
Parties and Ballot Access......................................................................................................................54
How Primaries Work............................................................................................................................56
Uncertainty and Extremism..................................................................................................................57
Analyzing Elections page 3
Voter and Candidate Preferences in an Uncertain World....................................................................59
Variations in Primary Systems..................................................................................................................61
If You Don’t Like the Rules.................................................................................................................61
Types of Primaries................................................................................................................................61
Who Chooses Primary Systems, Voters or Parties?............................................................................62
Opening Primaries and Party Control........................................................................................................63
Wisconsin’s Customs............................................................................................................................63
Are Candidates More Moderate in More Open Primary Systems?.....................................................64
Campbell’s Enemy – Insincerity..........................................................................................................65
Variation in Local and State Party Positions.............................................................................................66
National Parties as Confederations.......................................................................................................66
State Parties and Ideology.....................................................................................................................67
Canceling Out........................................................................................................................................69
Ambition, Ideology, and Divergence........................................................................................................69
Upward Political Mobility....................................................................................................................69
Political Mobility and Party Influence.................................................................................................70
What’s Left Out So Far?............................................................................................................................71
Chapter 4: Money & Interest Groups in Elections...................................................................72
The Desperate Man....................................................................................................................................72
Who Makes Contributions?.......................................................................................................................74
Interest Groups......................................................................................................................................74
PACs versus Individuals and Collective Action..................................................................................76
The Internet and Campaign Finance.....................................................................................................77
Federal Campaign Finance Regulations...............................................................................................78
The Provisions of BCRA......................................................................................................................80
The Millionaires’ Amendment.............................................................................................................80
Shadows in the Law..............................................................................................................................81
Giving to Elect or to Receive?...................................................................................................................83
Giving to Elect...........................................................................................................................................85
What are ‘black-boxed” voters?...........................................................................................................85
How Policy Motivated Campaign Contributions Work......................................................................85
Giving to Receive.......................................................................................................................................87
What is Received?.................................................................................................................................87
For What Price?.....................................................................................................................................88
Enforcing the Contract..........................................................................................................................89
Double Dipping Redux.........................................................................................................................90
The Empirical Evidence on Quid Pro Quo Contributions........................................................................91
Coordination and the Decisiveness of Money..........................................................................................91
Policy versus Service Redux......................................................................................................................93
Inside the Black Box..................................................................................................................................94
Coordination..........................................................................................................................................95
Impressionability...................................................................................................................................97
Signals of Candidate Ability.................................................................................................................98
Reducing Uncertainty...........................................................................................................................99
Agenda Setting....................................................................................................................................102
Negative Advertising..........................................................................................................................104
A Referendum over Whom?....................................................................................................................105
Chapter 5: Controlling Elected Officials: Retrospective Voting, Incumbency, Term
Limits, and Direct Democracy....................................................................................................106
Goodling’s Unusual Election...................................................................................................................106
A Return to Citizen Legislators...............................................................................................................106
The Uselessness of Knowledge...............................................................................................................107
Do Voters Learn During Campaigns?.....................................................................................................108
Money, Information, and Incumbents.....................................................................................................110
Analyzing Elections page 4
The Secret World of Incumbents.............................................................................................................111
Can the Moral Hazard Problem in Elections be Solved?.......................................................................114
A Simple Example..............................................................................................................................114
Voters’ Choice.....................................................................................................................................116
Can the Adverse Selection Problem in Elections be Solved?................................................................117
Parties Redux and Evidence....................................................................................................................118
Retrospective Voting and the Economy..................................................................................................119
Taxes and Spending............................................................................................................................119
Retrospective Voting and Cycles.......................................................................................................121
Should Incumbency be Limited?.............................................................................................................122
The Puzzle of the Rise in Term Limits....................................................................................................124
Voters Changing the Electoral Calendar.................................................................................................125
Too Clever...........................................................................................................................................125
Recall Elections...................................................................................................................................126
Referenda and Initiatives.........................................................................................................................129
California in the 70s............................................................................................................................129
The Effects of Direct Democracy – Theory.......................................................................................130
The Effects of Direct Democracy – Evidence....................................................................................130
Elected versus Appointed Officials.........................................................................................................131
Electing Prosecutors............................................................................................................................131
Electing Judges....................................................................................................................................132
Electing Regulators.............................................................................................................................133
Other Reasons Why Goodling’s Election was Special...........................................................................133
Part II: Congressional and Presidential Elections....................................................135
Chapter 6: Congressional Elections...........................................................................................135
Trying to Make a Difference...................................................................................................................135
Apportionment and Membership of the House of Representatives.......................................................136
Redistricting.............................................................................................................................................137
The Killer D’s......................................................................................................................................137
Checks and Balances or Why DeLay Cared About the Killer D’s...................................................138
The History of Redistricting...............................................................................................................139
Gerrymandering.......................................................................................................................................140
Partisan Bias versus Responsiveness..................................................................................................140
Gerrymandering and Policy................................................................................................................143
The Killer D’s Revisited.....................................................................................................................149
Redistricting and Incumbency.................................................................................................................151
Protecting Incumbents?.......................................................................................................................152
Why do Incumbents Win?..................................................................................................................153
The Decision to Run.................................................................................................................................154
The Expected Utility of Running........................................................................................................154
Political Experience & the Decision to Run.......................................................................................155
The Game Between Challengers........................................................................................................157
Redistricting and Incumbency Advantages Redux............................................................................159
Senate Elections.......................................................................................................................................160
Not all Members are Equal......................................................................................................................162
Are Congressional Races Special?.....................................................................................................162
Does the Majority Party Rule?...........................................................................................................162
The Effect on Congressional Elections..............................................................................................164
Seniority, Elections, and Incumbency.....................................................................................................164
Party Control, Positions of Power, and Upward Political Mobility.......................................................167
Moving Down the Street..........................................................................................................................168
Chapter 7: Presidential Primaries.............................................................................................169
Skipping Around or Sitting in Place?......................................................................................................169
What it takes to get on the Ballot in Primaries........................................................................................170
Analyzing Elections page 5
The Rules.............................................................................................................................................170
The Experience....................................................................................................................................170
Hyperspeed...............................................................................................................................................172
What it takes to get nominated................................................................................................................174
When Conventions Made Real Choices.............................................................................................174
Primaries in a Starring Role................................................................................................................177
Spaced-Out Primaries: 1972-1984......................................................................................................180
Front-Loaded Primaries: 1988-2004..................................................................................................182
How the Current System Works..............................................................................................................184
Do Voters Learn During Primaries?...................................................................................................184
Learning by Voting in Presidential Primaries....................................................................................185
Problems with Learning by Voting....................................................................................................191
How the Current System Works: The Evidence....................................................................................192
Experimenting with Primaries............................................................................................................192
Views of the State of Primaries...............................................................................................................193
Should there be a Return to Convention Rule?..................................................................................193
How Can Primaries be Reformed?.....................................................................................................195
The Next Step...........................................................................................................................................195
Chapter 8: Presidential Elections and Divided Government................................................197
Going West...............................................................................................................................................197
How the Electoral College Works...........................................................................................................198
The Majority Requirement in the Electoral College..........................................................................198
The Electoral Vote Versus the Popular Vote.....................................................................................199
The Electoral College and Campaigning.................................................................................................200
Optimal Campaigning.........................................................................................................................200
The Electoral Vote and Government Spending......................................................................................209
Voters and Divided Government.............................................................................................................210
The Saga of Patient’s Rights...............................................................................................................210
The President and Legislation............................................................................................................211
The Moderating Voter Theory............................................................................................................216
Midterm Elections...............................................................................................................................221
What Happened to the Patients’ Bill of Rights?.....................................................................................224
More Checks and Balances......................................................................................................................225
What About Other Parties and Candidates?............................................................................................227
Part III: Challenging the Majority............................................................................229
Chapter 9: Minor Parties and Independent Candidates........................................................229
Winning by Division................................................................................................................................229
In California........................................................................................................................................229
In Chicago...........................................................................................................................................229
Voter Choices in Three Candidate Elections..........................................................................................230
“The Christine Jorgensen of the Republican Party”..........................................................................230
New York’s 1970 Senate Race...........................................................................................................230
Voting in the Three-Candidate Race in New York............................................................................231
Election Outcomes in the Three-Candidate Race..............................................................................232
Choosing Whether to Party......................................................................................................................232
Moving to More than One Dimension....................................................................................................234
The Paradox of Voting........................................................................................................................234
The Paradox of Voting and American Elections...............................................................................235
The Meaning of Liberal and Conservative.........................................................................................236
Can Minor Party or Independent Candidates Succeed in American Elections?....................................237
Ventura’s Unlikely Achievement.......................................................................................................237
Ventura’s Failure.................................................................................................................................239
Was it Jesse?........................................................................................................................................239
How Many Minor Party and Independent Candidates Are There?........................................................240
Analyzing Elections page 6
Do Voters Vote for Minor Party or Independent Candidates?...............................................................243
Party Labels as Information and Coordination Devices....................................................................244
Nonpartisan Elections, Majority Requirements, and Coordination.......................................................245
Nonpartisan Elections.........................................................................................................................245
Louisiana’s Spicy Politics...................................................................................................................247
Majority Requirements and Coordination..........................................................................................248
Majority Requirements and Independent and Minor Party Candidates............................................249
Not Unique, but Rare . . ..........................................................................................................................250
The Implications for Policy Choices.......................................................................................................250
The Liberal/Conservative Dimension Over Time...................................................................................251
Short Run Stability..............................................................................................................................252
Longer Run Stability...........................................................................................................................252
How Failing to Support David Worley Hurt Democrats in 2000...........................................................254
The Major Political Parties and Civil Rights..........................................................................................255
Chapter 10: Challenging the Majority: Minority Voters and Representation...................257
The Dilemma of Representation..............................................................................................................257
What it Was Like......................................................................................................................................258
The South Today......................................................................................................................................259
Texas....................................................................................................................................................259
Changes in the South: Voting............................................................................................................260
Changes in the South: Office-holding...............................................................................................260
The Current Rise in Diversity within the United States.........................................................................261
Defining Minority Representation...........................................................................................................262
Vote Denial...............................................................................................................................................263
Direct Vote Denial..............................................................................................................................263
Indirect Vote Denial............................................................................................................................264
Vote Dilution............................................................................................................................................268
Vote Dilution versus Vote Denial......................................................................................................268
Methods of Vote Dilution...................................................................................................................269
The Effects of Vote Dilution in the late 19th Century........................................................................273
Majority Requirements and Vote Dilution.........................................................................................273
Vote Dilution and Other Minority Groups.........................................................................................274
Vote Dilution, the 15th Amendment, and the Voting Rights Act...........................................................275
Majority Minority Districts and the Redistricting Debate of the 1990s.................................................276
The New Majority Minority Districts.................................................................................................276
Unconstitutional?................................................................................................................................277
Majority Minority Districts and Other Minorities.............................................................................278
Are Majority Minority Districts Good for Minorities?...........................................................................280
The Effect on State Legislatures.........................................................................................................280
The Effect on Congress.......................................................................................................................283
The Future of Redistricting......................................................................................................................286
Chapter 11: The Future and Analyzing Elections...................................................................288
The 2004 Presidential Contest.................................................................................................................288
Changes in the Electoral System.............................................................................................................289
Truisms.....................................................................................................................................................290
References.....................................................................................................................................291
Chapter 1: The Why and What of
Studying American Elections
Bush v. Gore, September 11th, and American Elections
Both the fall of 2000 and the fall of 2001 were momentous periods for United
States citizens. In November 2000 an extremely rare event occurred, a virtually tied
election involving millions of voters, whose outcome was debated for weeks, finally
resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court. In September 2001 terrorists attacked the World
Trade Center in downtown Manhattan and the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. plunging
the country into military conflict in Afghanistan and a confrontation with Iraq, as well as
bringing to the forefront of political debate issues of domestic security, immigration, civil
liberties, and civil rights. From the perspective of 2004, the happenings at the end of
2000 seem almost trivial in comparison to those of the fall of 2001. Yet, the events of
November and December 2000 profoundly affected the response of the nation to the
attacks on 2001. Because Republican George W. Bush was selected in the presidential
contest of 2000, he made the initial policy choices on how the United States would
respond to the terrorist attack. The officials in his administration (appointed with the
consent of the Senate) similarly made initial policy decisions on how to deal with the
terrorists (both domestically and internationally).
Statements by Bush’s Democratic opponent in 2000, Al Gore, Massachusetts
Senator John Kerry and the other candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination
in 2004, and other Democratic officials and party leaders suggest that there would have
been differences in how the terrorist attacks would have been handled if Gore had won
the election. In particular, Democrats criticized Bush’s response to the terrorist attack for
focusing on Iraq and Saddam Hussein instead of Al Queda, the organization directly
responsible for the attacks, as well as some of the measures taken by administration
officials such as Attorney General John Ashcroft to uncover terrorist networks within the
United States. While treading carefully to maintain support for the troops during the war
with Iraq, a number of Democrats argued against the war and Bush policies in postwar
Iraq. Questions were raised about the justifications for war with Iraq and whether enough
effort was being expended to fight Al Qaeda. Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, the
Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 noted in a speech before firefighters in March
2004 that he believed that Bush had “done too little [in the war on terror] and some things
that he didn’t have to. When the focus of the war on terror was appropriately in
Afghanistan and on breaking Al Qaeda, President Bush shifted his focus to Iraq and to
Saddam Hussein.”1

1Stout, David, “Kerry Criticizes Bush Record on Terrorism,” New York Times, March 15, 2004. For earlier
criticism from Gore see Nagorney, Adam, “Gore says Bush’s war on terrorism is ineffective,” The New
York Times, November 21, 2002: “Al Gore said today that the United States had failed to destroy Osama
bin Laden and dismantle the network of Al Qaeda because President Bush spent the fall campaign ‘beating
the drums of war against Saddam Hussein’ instead of prosecuting the war on terror. As a result, Mr. Gore
said, Americans are as much at risk of a terrorist attack now as they were before Sept. 11. Mr. Gore said
that while the administration had stumbled abroad in dealing with Al Qaeda, it had undertaken the ‘most
systematic invasion of privacy of every American citizen that has ever been taken in this country’ with the
Analyzing Elections page 8
Democrats also criticized the administration’s policies on North Korea, which the
Bush administration labeled part of an axis of evil.2 Would a Democratic administration
have pushed for a confrontation with Iraq? Would a Democratic administration have dealt
with North Korea differently? Would a Democratic administration have been as willing
to investigate library use of its citizens or ask diving shops for lists of those who have
taken lessons recently in order to uncover domestic terrorist networks?3 Would a
Democratic administration have pushed for a tax cut in the face of increased war and
domestic antiterrorist expenditures?4 While we can never experience the counterfactual
of a Democratic administration responding to the terrorist attacks of 2001 and the
problems of North Korea in 2002 and 2003, these statements by Democrats suggest that
there would have been differences.
The occurrence of September 11th after the close presidential election of 2000
coupled with the success of President Bush in Afghanistan and the public satisfaction
with his ability to handle the terrorist threat, helped the Republican party secure a
majority in both houses of Congress in the midterm election of 2002, something that
might not have happened if voters had been more concerned about domestic issues at the
time of the election. Bush was able to use this majority to push forward further tax cuts
in the spring of 2002, which lowered the rates for many wealthy voters. If Gore had been
elected in 2000 and proved capable of handling the crises, Democrats might have seen

expanded use of wiretapping and secret court proceedings in the war on terrorism. ‘We have always held
out the shibboleth of Big Brother as a nightmarish vision of the future that we're going to avoid at all costs,’
Mr. Gore said, speaking heatedly and intensely in an interview here this morning. ‘They have now taken
the most fateful step in the direction of that Big Brother nightmare that any president has ever allowed to
occur.’” For other Democratic criticism of Bush’s response to the terrorist attacks in 2001 and 2002 see
Sack, Kevin, “Former President Carter is ‘Disappointed’ in Bush,” The New York Times, July 25, 2001;
Johnston, David and Eric Lichtblau, “Little Headway in Terrorism War, Democrats Say,” The New York
Times, November 12, 2002; Milligan, Susan and Elizabeth Neuffer, “Kennedy criticizes Bush on Iraq
policy,” The Boston Globe, September 28, 2002; Black, Eric, “Candidates are worlds apart; Wellstone and
Coleman take opposite sides on most foreign policy-issues,” Minneapolis Star Tribune, October 20, 2002.
Others argued that Democrats needed to criticize Bush’s war on terrorism more explicitly, contending that
the statements of Gore and Democrats were “weak”, see for example, “Speechless”, The New Republic,
October 7, 2002. In 2003 both before and during the war with Iraq, Democratic criticism was mixed, some
arguing against the war, others in support. See for example VandeHei, Jim and Helen Dewar, “Democrats
Lambaste Bush on Iraq,” The Washington Post, March 7, 2003; Craff, Christopher, “Dean says he backs
troops, but not Bush war policies,” Manchester Union Leader, March 18, 2003; and Lester, Will,
“Democratic leaders tout war support,” Associate Press Online, April 9, 2003.
2 For Democratic criticism of Bush’s foreign policy on North Korea, see Westphal, David, “Bush criticized
for response to N. Korea; Democrats say reactor demands greater sense of urgency,” Minneapolis Star
Tribune, February 7, 2003; Efron, Sonni and Barbara Demick, “Democrats say focus should be on N.
Korea,” Los Angeles Times, March 6, 2003; and Kelley, Matt, “Bush sends bombers to Guam to keep eye
on North Korea: Democrats demand U.S. talk directly to Pyongyang,” Ottawa Citizen, March 6, 2003;
3 See Moss, Michael and Ford Fessenden, “America under surveillance: Privacy and security; new tools
for domestic spying, and qualms,” The New York Times, December 10, 2002; Seper, Jerry, “Ashcroft’s
assurance is sought on privacy; 4 Democrats fear tracking system,” The Washington Times, January 14,
2003; and Benjamin, Mark, “Democrats blast Ashcroft surveillance plan,” United Press International,
February 10, 2003.
4 See “Democratic Hopefuls Debate War, Tax Cuts,” Associated Press, May 4, 2003; Welna, David,
“Democrats argue President Bush’s tax cuts will inflate the federal budget deficit,” National Public Radio,
All Things Considered, January 10, 2003; and Hook, Janet, “Democrats enter tax break battle,” Los Angeles
Times, January 7, 2003;
Analyzing Elections page 9
the same success in the 2002 elections but with probably different domestic policy
consequences.
The lesson from 2000 and its subsequent effects on American reactions to the
terrorist attacks and American policy making as a consequence is that elections dominate
American politics. The election calendar deeply influences the timing of public policy
choices; economic decisions are impacted by elections and electoral outcomes; fights
over the right to vote and how votes are counted have historically resulted in some of our
most serious political strife and significant court decisions; and a considerable amount of
financial resources and expenditure of effort and time is engaged in the electoral process.
Our elected officials seem constantly driven by the next election campaign and every
political event is interpreted by the media in the context of current or future campaigns.
Despite claims of widespread cynicism about politics, low turnout, and high levels of
voter apathy, almost all levels of American society are involved in elections from
Buddhist Nuns in southern California to dairy farmers in Vermont. Understanding how
elections work is crucial for understanding American politics and policy choices.
Actors and Institutions
In this book we investigate the American electoral process and the roles played by
actors and institutions. In the 2000 presidential election the principal actors were of
course the voters, the candidates, the members of the Supreme Court of Florida and of the
United States, the election officials in Florida and other states, as well as a host of party
and elected officials and interest groups. We will meet a lot of other actors in American
elections and hear their stories in the chapters to come. Some of the people we will meet
are elected officials like Diane Feinstein, who successfully defeated a recall attempt
while mayor leading to a seat in the U.S. Senate; Jeb Bush, who had to learn to moderate
on policy; Jesse Ventura, who challenged the entire major two party system and defeated
it; Charlie Norwood, who tried to push through patient’s rights legislation; Harold
Washington, who surprised many by becoming the first black mayor of Chicago; etc. We
will discuss interest group leaders like Betty Friedan, the feminist who helped mobilize
women and Don Smith, a union leader in Detroit, Michigan. We will meet Hollywood
stars who actively campaign in elections such as Ben Affleck. But we will also talk
about individuals such as Amanda Strom from St. Louis who didn’t believe her vote will
make a difference and Fannie Jeffrey whose parents moved from Alabama in the early
1900s in order to have the right to vote that Ms. Strom did not use.
However, focusing only on the actors and their choices would give us an
incomplete view of American elections and how they influence American politics. Our
electoral institutions (the rules that determine who votes, the geographical areas
represented by the elected officials, the ways in which votes are counted, which public
officials are chosen through elections rather than appointment, whether elected officials
in one branch of government must compromise with officials in another branch of
government to choose policy) play crucial roles in how elections dominate American
politics. For example, because we elect presidents through an electoral college system
rather than by direct popular vote, the winner of the 2000 election was not the popular
vote winner. That is, although George W. Bush received 50,456,002 popular votes to Al
Gore’s total of 50,999,897, since Bush won more electoral voters (271 to 266), Bush
became president.
Analyzing Elections page 10
Moreover, because we elect our president and Congress in separate elections,
have an independent judiciary, and a federal structure of government with independently
elected state and local officials, one single election outcome is unlikely to fully determine
the policy choices of government. Although Bush was the winner in 2000, in early 2001
when Vermont Republican Senator James Jeffords declared his independence of the party
and gave Democrats majority control over the Senate, Bush and his party recognized that
in order to enact policies he preferred he needed support from Democrats in the Senate.
For instance, initially Bush opposed an independent commission to investigate the
reasons why the September 11th attacks were not anticipated fully by United States
intelligence agencies, but agreed to a commission because of the wishes of members in
Congress and other state and local elected officials. The legislation creating the
commission was a carefully crafted compromise between Democratic and Republican
members of Congress and the President.5
Furthermore, because of Jefford’s defection, Bush and the Republicans saw the
Senate election of 2002 as an opportunity to change the balance of power in the Senate.
They recognized that an Congressional election held between presidential elections could
have consequential effects on the extent that a president can enact policies he or she
desires. Yet, because only a third of the Senate was up for reelection, the balance of
power in the nation and the types of policies that would be enacted hinged on contests in
only those states. These states also vary in the rules that govern how parties nominate
candidates and the rules that govern who is selected in the general election.
One of the most contested of the Senate races was in Louisiana where Democratic
Senator Mary Landrieu ran for reelection. In the November general election, although
Landrieu received more votes than any other candidate (a plurality), she received only
46% of the vote, less than a majority. In some states this would have meant immediate
victory, but in Louisiana since she had less than 50% of the vote, she had to compete a
second time in a runoff election against her closest opponent. Moreover, unlike other
Senate races in November, Landrieu faced not just one Republican opponent with
sizeable support in the general election, but three different Republican candidates,
because Louisiana’s elections are nonpartisan without party primaries or nominating
conventions to choose one major party candidate for the general election. Republican
voters and party leaders divided between these candidates, resulting in none receiving as
many votes as Landrieu, while Landrieu still did not receive a majority.6 But
Republicans still had a chance to defeat Landrieu in the runoff election in December,
which meant that until the runoff was held, how many Republicans and Democrats were
actually in the Senate for the coming term was uncertain. Landrieu did win in the runoff
despite strong campaigning from Bush and other Republicans, who united around her
opponent.
The shared, but limited power feature of the American governmental system,
coupled with separate elections, scheduled at different times, in states with different

5 See Dewar, Helen, “Deal reached on 9/11 commission; Bipartisan panel to probe what led up to attacks,”
The Washington Post, November 15, 2002.
6 Republican governor Foster supported Cooksey while Bush and the National Republican Senatorial
Committee supported Terrell. See Alpert, Bruce, “Landrieu camp breathing easier with Foster out,” The
New Orleans Times-Picayune, August 25, 2002 and “NRSC hoping to force Landrieu into runoff,” The
Bulletin’s Frontrunner, October 15, 2002.