Table Of Content

Analyzing Elections Rebecca B. Morton Department of Politics New York University th 7 Floor, 726 Broadway New York, NY 10003 212-998-3706 [email protected] forthcoming, W.W. Norton Analyzing Elections page 2 Chapter 1: The Why and What of Studying American Elections............................................7 Bush v. Gore, September 11th, and American Elections.............................................................................7 Actors and Institutions.................................................................................................................................9 Plan of the Book.........................................................................................................................................11 Part I: The Fundamentals of American Elections......................................................13 Chapter 2: Why Voters Vote (or Don’t)....................................................................................13 Three Things...............................................................................................................................................13 Three Puzzles.............................................................................................................................................14 Puzzle 1: The Forty-five Year Lag......................................................................................................14 Puzzle 2: The Puzzle of Participation..................................................................................................15 Puzzle 3: The Paradox of Not Voting...................................................................................................16 Consumption versus Investment................................................................................................................18 The Consumption Benefits from Voting..............................................................................................18 Togetherness...............................................................................................................................................19 Consumption and Citizen Duty Redux......................................................................................................22 Voting and the Collective Action Problem..........................................................................................22 Voting and Private Selective Incentives...............................................................................................23 Bribery...................................................................................................................................................25 Voting and Social Selective Incentives................................................................................................26 Incentives and Voting Today................................................................................................................27 Voting Rationally and Turning Out Irrationally.......................................................................................28 Benefit versus Office Seeking Groups.................................................................................................28 The Forty-Five Year Lag Revisited...........................................................................................................31 New Voters and Parties.........................................................................................................................31 Fixed Costs of Group Mobilization......................................................................................................31 The 1970s and Women.........................................................................................................................33 The Final Puzzle – Why is Voting Lower Now than in the 1950s and 1960s?.......................................34 The Decline of the Precinct Captain as Mr. Goodbar..........................................................................34 Forcing a Square Peg in a Round Hole................................................................................................36 The Good, the Bad, and the Institutions....................................................................................................38 Making Voting Cheap and Easy................................................................................................................39 The Motor Voter Bill............................................................................................................................39 Punching Out.........................................................................................................................................40 Voting by Mail, by Shopping, on the Net . . .......................................................................................42 Financing Turnout......................................................................................................................................45 Candidates, Parties, and Interest Groups...................................................................................................46 Appendix to Chapter 2...............................................................................................................................47 Chapter 3: Candidates and Parties..............................................................................................48 Brothers in Office.......................................................................................................................................48 Why Moderation Attracts in American Elections.....................................................................................49 Voters Preferences................................................................................................................................49 Why Did Bush Move?...........................................................................................................................50 Moderation: Virtue or Vice?......................................................................................................................51 Candidates Do Not Moderate...............................................................................................................51 What do Voters Think?.........................................................................................................................52 What do Candidates Say about their Positions?...................................................................................52 How do Candidates choose after Elections?........................................................................................53 A Battle for the Left...................................................................................................................................53 How Parties Affect Candidate Positions...................................................................................................54 Parties and Ballot Access......................................................................................................................54 How Primaries Work............................................................................................................................56 Uncertainty and Extremism..................................................................................................................57 Analyzing Elections page 3 Voter and Candidate Preferences in an Uncertain World....................................................................59 Variations in Primary Systems..................................................................................................................61 If You Don’t Like the Rules.................................................................................................................61 Types of Primaries................................................................................................................................61 Who Chooses Primary Systems, Voters or Parties?............................................................................62 Opening Primaries and Party Control........................................................................................................63 Wisconsin’s Customs............................................................................................................................63 Are Candidates More Moderate in More Open Primary Systems?.....................................................64 Campbell’s Enemy – Insincerity..........................................................................................................65 Variation in Local and State Party Positions.............................................................................................66 National Parties as Confederations.......................................................................................................66 State Parties and Ideology.....................................................................................................................67 Canceling Out........................................................................................................................................69 Ambition, Ideology, and Divergence........................................................................................................69 Upward Political Mobility....................................................................................................................69 Political Mobility and Party Influence.................................................................................................70 What’s Left Out So Far?............................................................................................................................71 Chapter 4: Money & Interest Groups in Elections...................................................................72 The Desperate Man....................................................................................................................................72 Who Makes Contributions?.......................................................................................................................74 Interest Groups......................................................................................................................................74 PACs versus Individuals and Collective Action..................................................................................76 The Internet and Campaign Finance.....................................................................................................77 Federal Campaign Finance Regulations...............................................................................................78 The Provisions of BCRA......................................................................................................................80 The Millionaires’ Amendment.............................................................................................................80 Shadows in the Law..............................................................................................................................81 Giving to Elect or to Receive?...................................................................................................................83 Giving to Elect...........................................................................................................................................85 What are ‘black-boxed” voters?...........................................................................................................85 How Policy Motivated Campaign Contributions Work......................................................................85 Giving to Receive.......................................................................................................................................87 What is Received?.................................................................................................................................87 For What Price?.....................................................................................................................................88 Enforcing the Contract..........................................................................................................................89 Double Dipping Redux.........................................................................................................................90 The Empirical Evidence on Quid Pro Quo Contributions........................................................................91 Coordination and the Decisiveness of Money..........................................................................................91 Policy versus Service Redux......................................................................................................................93 Inside the Black Box..................................................................................................................................94 Coordination..........................................................................................................................................95 Impressionability...................................................................................................................................97 Signals of Candidate Ability.................................................................................................................98 Reducing Uncertainty...........................................................................................................................99 Agenda Setting....................................................................................................................................102 Negative Advertising..........................................................................................................................104 A Referendum over Whom?....................................................................................................................105 Chapter 5: Controlling Elected Officials: Retrospective Voting, Incumbency, Term Limits, and Direct Democracy....................................................................................................106 Goodling’s Unusual Election...................................................................................................................106 A Return to Citizen Legislators...............................................................................................................106 The Uselessness of Knowledge...............................................................................................................107 Do Voters Learn During Campaigns?.....................................................................................................108 Money, Information, and Incumbents.....................................................................................................110 Analyzing Elections page 4 The Secret World of Incumbents.............................................................................................................111 Can the Moral Hazard Problem in Elections be Solved?.......................................................................114 A Simple Example..............................................................................................................................114 Voters’ Choice.....................................................................................................................................116 Can the Adverse Selection Problem in Elections be Solved?................................................................117 Parties Redux and Evidence....................................................................................................................118 Retrospective Voting and the Economy..................................................................................................119 Taxes and Spending............................................................................................................................119 Retrospective Voting and Cycles.......................................................................................................121 Should Incumbency be Limited?.............................................................................................................122 The Puzzle of the Rise in Term Limits....................................................................................................124 Voters Changing the Electoral Calendar.................................................................................................125 Too Clever...........................................................................................................................................125 Recall Elections...................................................................................................................................126 Referenda and Initiatives.........................................................................................................................129 California in the 70s............................................................................................................................129 The Effects of Direct Democracy – Theory.......................................................................................130 The Effects of Direct Democracy – Evidence....................................................................................130 Elected versus Appointed Officials.........................................................................................................131 Electing Prosecutors............................................................................................................................131 Electing Judges....................................................................................................................................132 Electing Regulators.............................................................................................................................133 Other Reasons Why Goodling’s Election was Special...........................................................................133 Part II: Congressional and Presidential Elections....................................................135 Chapter 6: Congressional Elections...........................................................................................135 Trying to Make a Difference...................................................................................................................135 Apportionment and Membership of the House of Representatives.......................................................136 Redistricting.............................................................................................................................................137 The Killer D’s......................................................................................................................................137 Checks and Balances or Why DeLay Cared About the Killer D’s...................................................138 The History of Redistricting...............................................................................................................139 Gerrymandering.......................................................................................................................................140 Partisan Bias versus Responsiveness..................................................................................................140 Gerrymandering and Policy................................................................................................................143 The Killer D’s Revisited.....................................................................................................................149 Redistricting and Incumbency.................................................................................................................151 Protecting Incumbents?.......................................................................................................................152 Why do Incumbents Win?..................................................................................................................153 The Decision to Run.................................................................................................................................154 The Expected Utility of Running........................................................................................................154 Political Experience & the Decision to Run.......................................................................................155 The Game Between Challengers........................................................................................................157 Redistricting and Incumbency Advantages Redux............................................................................159 Senate Elections.......................................................................................................................................160 Not all Members are Equal......................................................................................................................162 Are Congressional Races Special?.....................................................................................................162 Does the Majority Party Rule?...........................................................................................................162 The Effect on Congressional Elections..............................................................................................164 Seniority, Elections, and Incumbency.....................................................................................................164 Party Control, Positions of Power, and Upward Political Mobility.......................................................167 Moving Down the Street..........................................................................................................................168 Chapter 7: Presidential Primaries.............................................................................................169 Skipping Around or Sitting in Place?......................................................................................................169 What it takes to get on the Ballot in Primaries........................................................................................170 Analyzing Elections page 5 The Rules.............................................................................................................................................170 The Experience....................................................................................................................................170 Hyperspeed...............................................................................................................................................172 What it takes to get nominated................................................................................................................174 When Conventions Made Real Choices.............................................................................................174 Primaries in a Starring Role................................................................................................................177 Spaced-Out Primaries: 1972-1984......................................................................................................180 Front-Loaded Primaries: 1988-2004..................................................................................................182 How the Current System Works..............................................................................................................184 Do Voters Learn During Primaries?...................................................................................................184 Learning by Voting in Presidential Primaries....................................................................................185 Problems with Learning by Voting....................................................................................................191 How the Current System Works: The Evidence....................................................................................192 Experimenting with Primaries............................................................................................................192 Views of the State of Primaries...............................................................................................................193 Should there be a Return to Convention Rule?..................................................................................193 How Can Primaries be Reformed?.....................................................................................................195 The Next Step...........................................................................................................................................195 Chapter 8: Presidential Elections and Divided Government................................................197 Going West...............................................................................................................................................197 How the Electoral College Works...........................................................................................................198 The Majority Requirement in the Electoral College..........................................................................198 The Electoral Vote Versus the Popular Vote.....................................................................................199 The Electoral College and Campaigning.................................................................................................200 Optimal Campaigning.........................................................................................................................200 The Electoral Vote and Government Spending......................................................................................209 Voters and Divided Government.............................................................................................................210 The Saga of Patient’s Rights...............................................................................................................210 The President and Legislation............................................................................................................211 The Moderating Voter Theory............................................................................................................216 Midterm Elections...............................................................................................................................221 What Happened to the Patients’ Bill of Rights?.....................................................................................224 More Checks and Balances......................................................................................................................225 What About Other Parties and Candidates?............................................................................................227 Part III: Challenging the Majority............................................................................229 Chapter 9: Minor Parties and Independent Candidates........................................................229 Winning by Division................................................................................................................................229 In California........................................................................................................................................229 In Chicago...........................................................................................................................................229 Voter Choices in Three Candidate Elections..........................................................................................230 “The Christine Jorgensen of the Republican Party”..........................................................................230 New York’s 1970 Senate Race...........................................................................................................230 Voting in the Three-Candidate Race in New York............................................................................231 Election Outcomes in the Three-Candidate Race..............................................................................232 Choosing Whether to Party......................................................................................................................232 Moving to More than One Dimension....................................................................................................234 The Paradox of Voting........................................................................................................................234 The Paradox of Voting and American Elections...............................................................................235 The Meaning of Liberal and Conservative.........................................................................................236 Can Minor Party or Independent Candidates Succeed in American Elections?....................................237 Ventura’s Unlikely Achievement.......................................................................................................237 Ventura’s Failure.................................................................................................................................239 Was it Jesse?........................................................................................................................................239 How Many Minor Party and Independent Candidates Are There?........................................................240 Analyzing Elections page 6 Do Voters Vote for Minor Party or Independent Candidates?...............................................................243 Party Labels as Information and Coordination Devices....................................................................244 Nonpartisan Elections, Majority Requirements, and Coordination.......................................................245 Nonpartisan Elections.........................................................................................................................245 Louisiana’s Spicy Politics...................................................................................................................247 Majority Requirements and Coordination..........................................................................................248 Majority Requirements and Independent and Minor Party Candidates............................................249 Not Unique, but Rare . . ..........................................................................................................................250 The Implications for Policy Choices.......................................................................................................250 The Liberal/Conservative Dimension Over Time...................................................................................251 Short Run Stability..............................................................................................................................252 Longer Run Stability...........................................................................................................................252 How Failing to Support David Worley Hurt Democrats in 2000...........................................................254 The Major Political Parties and Civil Rights..........................................................................................255 Chapter 10: Challenging the Majority: Minority Voters and Representation...................257 The Dilemma of Representation..............................................................................................................257 What it Was Like......................................................................................................................................258 The South Today......................................................................................................................................259 Texas....................................................................................................................................................259 Changes in the South: Voting............................................................................................................260 Changes in the South: Office-holding...............................................................................................260 The Current Rise in Diversity within the United States.........................................................................261 Defining Minority Representation...........................................................................................................262 Vote Denial...............................................................................................................................................263 Direct Vote Denial..............................................................................................................................263 Indirect Vote Denial............................................................................................................................264 Vote Dilution............................................................................................................................................268 Vote Dilution versus Vote Denial......................................................................................................268 Methods of Vote Dilution...................................................................................................................269 The Effects of Vote Dilution in the late 19th Century........................................................................273 Majority Requirements and Vote Dilution.........................................................................................273 Vote Dilution and Other Minority Groups.........................................................................................274 Vote Dilution, the 15th Amendment, and the Voting Rights Act...........................................................275 Majority Minority Districts and the Redistricting Debate of the 1990s.................................................276 The New Majority Minority Districts.................................................................................................276 Unconstitutional?................................................................................................................................277 Majority Minority Districts and Other Minorities.............................................................................278 Are Majority Minority Districts Good for Minorities?...........................................................................280 The Effect on State Legislatures.........................................................................................................280 The Effect on Congress.......................................................................................................................283 The Future of Redistricting......................................................................................................................286 Chapter 11: The Future and Analyzing Elections...................................................................288 The 2004 Presidential Contest.................................................................................................................288 Changes in the Electoral System.............................................................................................................289 Truisms.....................................................................................................................................................290 References.....................................................................................................................................291 Chapter 1: The Why and What of Studying American Elections Bush v. Gore, September 11th, and American Elections Both the fall of 2000 and the fall of 2001 were momentous periods for United States citizens. In November 2000 an extremely rare event occurred, a virtually tied election involving millions of voters, whose outcome was debated for weeks, finally resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court. In September 2001 terrorists attacked the World Trade Center in downtown Manhattan and the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. plunging the country into military conflict in Afghanistan and a confrontation with Iraq, as well as bringing to the forefront of political debate issues of domestic security, immigration, civil liberties, and civil rights. From the perspective of 2004, the happenings at the end of 2000 seem almost trivial in comparison to those of the fall of 2001. Yet, the events of November and December 2000 profoundly affected the response of the nation to the attacks on 2001. Because Republican George W. Bush was selected in the presidential contest of 2000, he made the initial policy choices on how the United States would respond to the terrorist attack. The officials in his administration (appointed with the consent of the Senate) similarly made initial policy decisions on how to deal with the terrorists (both domestically and internationally). Statements by Bush’s Democratic opponent in 2000, Al Gore, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and the other candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, and other Democratic officials and party leaders suggest that there would have been differences in how the terrorist attacks would have been handled if Gore had won the election. In particular, Democrats criticized Bush’s response to the terrorist attack for focusing on Iraq and Saddam Hussein instead of Al Queda, the organization directly responsible for the attacks, as well as some of the measures taken by administration officials such as Attorney General John Ashcroft to uncover terrorist networks within the United States. While treading carefully to maintain support for the troops during the war with Iraq, a number of Democrats argued against the war and Bush policies in postwar Iraq. Questions were raised about the justifications for war with Iraq and whether enough effort was being expended to fight Al Qaeda. Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 noted in a speech before firefighters in March 2004 that he believed that Bush had “done too little [in the war on terror] and some things that he didn’t have to. When the focus of the war on terror was appropriately in Afghanistan and on breaking Al Qaeda, President Bush shifted his focus to Iraq and to Saddam Hussein.”1 1Stout, David, “Kerry Criticizes Bush Record on Terrorism,” New York Times, March 15, 2004. For earlier criticism from Gore see Nagorney, Adam, “Gore says Bush’s war on terrorism is ineffective,” The New York Times, November 21, 2002: “Al Gore said today that the United States had failed to destroy Osama bin Laden and dismantle the network of Al Qaeda because President Bush spent the fall campaign ‘beating the drums of war against Saddam Hussein’ instead of prosecuting the war on terror. As a result, Mr. Gore said, Americans are as much at risk of a terrorist attack now as they were before Sept. 11. Mr. Gore said that while the administration had stumbled abroad in dealing with Al Qaeda, it had undertaken the ‘most systematic invasion of privacy of every American citizen that has ever been taken in this country’ with the Analyzing Elections page 8 Democrats also criticized the administration’s policies on North Korea, which the Bush administration labeled part of an axis of evil.2 Would a Democratic administration have pushed for a confrontation with Iraq? Would a Democratic administration have dealt with North Korea differently? Would a Democratic administration have been as willing to investigate library use of its citizens or ask diving shops for lists of those who have taken lessons recently in order to uncover domestic terrorist networks?3 Would a Democratic administration have pushed for a tax cut in the face of increased war and domestic antiterrorist expenditures?4 While we can never experience the counterfactual of a Democratic administration responding to the terrorist attacks of 2001 and the problems of North Korea in 2002 and 2003, these statements by Democrats suggest that there would have been differences. The occurrence of September 11th after the close presidential election of 2000 coupled with the success of President Bush in Afghanistan and the public satisfaction with his ability to handle the terrorist threat, helped the Republican party secure a majority in both houses of Congress in the midterm election of 2002, something that might not have happened if voters had been more concerned about domestic issues at the time of the election. Bush was able to use this majority to push forward further tax cuts in the spring of 2002, which lowered the rates for many wealthy voters. If Gore had been elected in 2000 and proved capable of handling the crises, Democrats might have seen expanded use of wiretapping and secret court proceedings in the war on terrorism. ‘We have always held out the shibboleth of Big Brother as a nightmarish vision of the future that we're going to avoid at all costs,’ Mr. Gore said, speaking heatedly and intensely in an interview here this morning. ‘They have now taken the most fateful step in the direction of that Big Brother nightmare that any president has ever allowed to occur.’” For other Democratic criticism of Bush’s response to the terrorist attacks in 2001 and 2002 see Sack, Kevin, “Former President Carter is ‘Disappointed’ in Bush,” The New York Times, July 25, 2001; Johnston, David and Eric Lichtblau, “Little Headway in Terrorism War, Democrats Say,” The New York Times, November 12, 2002; Milligan, Susan and Elizabeth Neuffer, “Kennedy criticizes Bush on Iraq policy,” The Boston Globe, September 28, 2002; Black, Eric, “Candidates are worlds apart; Wellstone and Coleman take opposite sides on most foreign policy-issues,” Minneapolis Star Tribune, October 20, 2002. Others argued that Democrats needed to criticize Bush’s war on terrorism more explicitly, contending that the statements of Gore and Democrats were “weak”, see for example, “Speechless”, The New Republic, October 7, 2002. In 2003 both before and during the war with Iraq, Democratic criticism was mixed, some arguing against the war, others in support. See for example VandeHei, Jim and Helen Dewar, “Democrats Lambaste Bush on Iraq,” The Washington Post, March 7, 2003; Craff, Christopher, “Dean says he backs troops, but not Bush war policies,” Manchester Union Leader, March 18, 2003; and Lester, Will, “Democratic leaders tout war support,” Associate Press Online, April 9, 2003. 2 For Democratic criticism of Bush’s foreign policy on North Korea, see Westphal, David, “Bush criticized for response to N. Korea; Democrats say reactor demands greater sense of urgency,” Minneapolis Star Tribune, February 7, 2003; Efron, Sonni and Barbara Demick, “Democrats say focus should be on N. Korea,” Los Angeles Times, March 6, 2003; and Kelley, Matt, “Bush sends bombers to Guam to keep eye on North Korea: Democrats demand U.S. talk directly to Pyongyang,” Ottawa Citizen, March 6, 2003; 3 See Moss, Michael and Ford Fessenden, “America under surveillance: Privacy and security; new tools for domestic spying, and qualms,” The New York Times, December 10, 2002; Seper, Jerry, “Ashcroft’s assurance is sought on privacy; 4 Democrats fear tracking system,” The Washington Times, January 14, 2003; and Benjamin, Mark, “Democrats blast Ashcroft surveillance plan,” United Press International, February 10, 2003. 4 See “Democratic Hopefuls Debate War, Tax Cuts,” Associated Press, May 4, 2003; Welna, David, “Democrats argue President Bush’s tax cuts will inflate the federal budget deficit,” National Public Radio, All Things Considered, January 10, 2003; and Hook, Janet, “Democrats enter tax break battle,” Los Angeles Times, January 7, 2003; Analyzing Elections page 9 the same success in the 2002 elections but with probably different domestic policy consequences. The lesson from 2000 and its subsequent effects on American reactions to the terrorist attacks and American policy making as a consequence is that elections dominate American politics. The election calendar deeply influences the timing of public policy choices; economic decisions are impacted by elections and electoral outcomes; fights over the right to vote and how votes are counted have historically resulted in some of our most serious political strife and significant court decisions; and a considerable amount of financial resources and expenditure of effort and time is engaged in the electoral process. Our elected officials seem constantly driven by the next election campaign and every political event is interpreted by the media in the context of current or future campaigns. Despite claims of widespread cynicism about politics, low turnout, and high levels of voter apathy, almost all levels of American society are involved in elections from Buddhist Nuns in southern California to dairy farmers in Vermont. Understanding how elections work is crucial for understanding American politics and policy choices. Actors and Institutions In this book we investigate the American electoral process and the roles played by actors and institutions. In the 2000 presidential election the principal actors were of course the voters, the candidates, the members of the Supreme Court of Florida and of the United States, the election officials in Florida and other states, as well as a host of party and elected officials and interest groups. We will meet a lot of other actors in American elections and hear their stories in the chapters to come. Some of the people we will meet are elected officials like Diane Feinstein, who successfully defeated a recall attempt while mayor leading to a seat in the U.S. Senate; Jeb Bush, who had to learn to moderate on policy; Jesse Ventura, who challenged the entire major two party system and defeated it; Charlie Norwood, who tried to push through patient’s rights legislation; Harold Washington, who surprised many by becoming the first black mayor of Chicago; etc. We will discuss interest group leaders like Betty Friedan, the feminist who helped mobilize women and Don Smith, a union leader in Detroit, Michigan. We will meet Hollywood stars who actively campaign in elections such as Ben Affleck. But we will also talk about individuals such as Amanda Strom from St. Louis who didn’t believe her vote will make a difference and Fannie Jeffrey whose parents moved from Alabama in the early 1900s in order to have the right to vote that Ms. Strom did not use. However, focusing only on the actors and their choices would give us an incomplete view of American elections and how they influence American politics. Our electoral institutions (the rules that determine who votes, the geographical areas represented by the elected officials, the ways in which votes are counted, which public officials are chosen through elections rather than appointment, whether elected officials in one branch of government must compromise with officials in another branch of government to choose policy) play crucial roles in how elections dominate American politics. For example, because we elect presidents through an electoral college system rather than by direct popular vote, the winner of the 2000 election was not the popular vote winner. That is, although George W. Bush received 50,456,002 popular votes to Al Gore’s total of 50,999,897, since Bush won more electoral voters (271 to 266), Bush became president. Analyzing Elections page 10 Moreover, because we elect our president and Congress in separate elections, have an independent judiciary, and a federal structure of government with independently elected state and local officials, one single election outcome is unlikely to fully determine the policy choices of government. Although Bush was the winner in 2000, in early 2001 when Vermont Republican Senator James Jeffords declared his independence of the party and gave Democrats majority control over the Senate, Bush and his party recognized that in order to enact policies he preferred he needed support from Democrats in the Senate. For instance, initially Bush opposed an independent commission to investigate the reasons why the September 11th attacks were not anticipated fully by United States intelligence agencies, but agreed to a commission because of the wishes of members in Congress and other state and local elected officials. The legislation creating the commission was a carefully crafted compromise between Democratic and Republican members of Congress and the President.5 Furthermore, because of Jefford’s defection, Bush and the Republicans saw the Senate election of 2002 as an opportunity to change the balance of power in the Senate. They recognized that an Congressional election held between presidential elections could have consequential effects on the extent that a president can enact policies he or she desires. Yet, because only a third of the Senate was up for reelection, the balance of power in the nation and the types of policies that would be enacted hinged on contests in only those states. These states also vary in the rules that govern how parties nominate candidates and the rules that govern who is selected in the general election. One of the most contested of the Senate races was in Louisiana where Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu ran for reelection. In the November general election, although Landrieu received more votes than any other candidate (a plurality), she received only 46% of the vote, less than a majority. In some states this would have meant immediate victory, but in Louisiana since she had less than 50% of the vote, she had to compete a second time in a runoff election against her closest opponent. Moreover, unlike other Senate races in November, Landrieu faced not just one Republican opponent with sizeable support in the general election, but three different Republican candidates, because Louisiana’s elections are nonpartisan without party primaries or nominating conventions to choose one major party candidate for the general election. Republican voters and party leaders divided between these candidates, resulting in none receiving as many votes as Landrieu, while Landrieu still did not receive a majority.6 But Republicans still had a chance to defeat Landrieu in the runoff election in December, which meant that until the runoff was held, how many Republicans and Democrats were actually in the Senate for the coming term was uncertain. Landrieu did win in the runoff despite strong campaigning from Bush and other Republicans, who united around her opponent. The shared, but limited power feature of the American governmental system, coupled with separate elections, scheduled at different times, in states with different 5 See Dewar, Helen, “Deal reached on 9/11 commission; Bipartisan panel to probe what led up to attacks,” The Washington Post, November 15, 2002. 6 Republican governor Foster supported Cooksey while Bush and the National Republican Senatorial Committee supported Terrell. See Alpert, Bruce, “Landrieu camp breathing easier with Foster out,” The New Orleans Times-Picayune, August 25, 2002 and “NRSC hoping to force Landrieu into runoff,” The Bulletin’s Frontrunner, October 15, 2002.

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Analyzing Elections Rebecca B. Morton Department of Politics New York University th 7 Floor, 726 Broadway New York, NY 10003 212-998-3706 [email protected] forthcoming, W.W. Norton Analyzing Elections page 2 Chapter 1: The Why and What of Studying American Elections............................................7 Bush v. Gore, September 11th, and American Elections.............................................................................7 Actors and Institutions.................................................................................................................................9 Plan of the Book.........................................................................................................................................11 Part I: The Fundamentals of American Elections......................................................13 Chapter 2: Why Voters Vote (or Don’t)....................................................................................13 Three Things...............................................................................................................................................13 Three Puzzles.............................................................................................................................................14 Puzzle 1: The Forty-five Year Lag......................................................................................................14 Puzzle 2: The Puzzle of Participation..................................................................................................15 Puzzle 3: The Paradox of Not Voting...................................................................................................16 Consumption versus Investment................................................................................................................18 The Consumption Benefits from Voting..............................................................................................18 Togetherness...............................................................................................................................................19 Consumption and Citizen Duty Redux......................................................................................................22 Voting and the Collective Action Problem..........................................................................................22 Voting and Private Selective Incentives...............................................................................................23 Bribery...................................................................................................................................................25 Voting and Social Selective Incentives................................................................................................26 Incentives and Voting Today................................................................................................................27 Voting Rationally and Turning Out Irrationally.......................................................................................28 Benefit versus Office Seeking Groups.................................................................................................28 The Forty-Five Year Lag Revisited...........................................................................................................31 New Voters and Parties.........................................................................................................................31 Fixed Costs of Group Mobilization......................................................................................................31 The 1970s and Women.........................................................................................................................33 The Final Puzzle – Why is Voting Lower Now than in the 1950s and 1960s?.......................................34 The Decline of the Precinct Captain as Mr. Goodbar..........................................................................34 Forcing a Square Peg in a Round Hole................................................................................................36 The Good, the Bad, and the Institutions....................................................................................................38 Making Voting Cheap and Easy................................................................................................................39 The Motor Voter Bill............................................................................................................................39 Punching Out.........................................................................................................................................40 Voting by Mail, by Shopping, on the Net . . .......................................................................................42 Financing Turnout......................................................................................................................................45 Candidates, Parties, and Interest Groups...................................................................................................46 Appendix to Chapter 2...............................................................................................................................47 Chapter 3: Candidates and Parties..............................................................................................48 Brothers in Office.......................................................................................................................................48 Why Moderation Attracts in American Elections.....................................................................................49 Voters Preferences................................................................................................................................49 Why Did Bush Move?...........................................................................................................................50 Moderation: Virtue or Vice?......................................................................................................................51 Candidates Do Not Moderate...............................................................................................................51 What do Voters Think?.........................................................................................................................52 What do Candidates Say about their Positions?...................................................................................52 How do Candidates choose after Elections?........................................................................................53 A Battle for the Left...................................................................................................................................53 How Parties Affect Candidate Positions...................................................................................................54 Parties and Ballot Access......................................................................................................................54 How Primaries Work............................................................................................................................56 Uncertainty and Extremism..................................................................................................................57 Analyzing Elections page 3 Voter and Candidate Preferences in an Uncertain World....................................................................59 Variations in Primary Systems..................................................................................................................61 If You Don’t Like the Rules.................................................................................................................61 Types of Primaries................................................................................................................................61 Who Chooses Primary Systems, Voters or Parties?............................................................................62 Opening Primaries and Party Control........................................................................................................63 Wisconsin’s Customs............................................................................................................................63 Are Candidates More Moderate in More Open Primary Systems?.....................................................64 Campbell’s Enemy – Insincerity..........................................................................................................65 Variation in Local and State Party Positions.............................................................................................66 National Parties as Confederations.......................................................................................................66 State Parties and Ideology.....................................................................................................................67 Canceling Out........................................................................................................................................69 Ambition, Ideology, and Divergence........................................................................................................69 Upward Political Mobility....................................................................................................................69 Political Mobility and Party Influence.................................................................................................70 What’s Left Out So Far?............................................................................................................................71 Chapter 4: Money & Interest Groups in Elections...................................................................72 The Desperate Man....................................................................................................................................72 Who Makes Contributions?.......................................................................................................................74 Interest Groups......................................................................................................................................74 PACs versus Individuals and Collective Action..................................................................................76 The Internet and Campaign Finance.....................................................................................................77 Federal Campaign Finance Regulations...............................................................................................78 The Provisions of BCRA......................................................................................................................80 The Millionaires’ Amendment.............................................................................................................80 Shadows in the Law..............................................................................................................................81 Giving to Elect or to Receive?...................................................................................................................83 Giving to Elect...........................................................................................................................................85 What are ‘black-boxed” voters?...........................................................................................................85 How Policy Motivated Campaign Contributions Work......................................................................85 Giving to Receive.......................................................................................................................................87 What is Received?.................................................................................................................................87 For What Price?.....................................................................................................................................88 Enforcing the Contract..........................................................................................................................89 Double Dipping Redux.........................................................................................................................90 The Empirical Evidence on Quid Pro Quo Contributions........................................................................91 Coordination and the Decisiveness of Money..........................................................................................91 Policy versus Service Redux......................................................................................................................93 Inside the Black Box..................................................................................................................................94 Coordination..........................................................................................................................................95 Impressionability...................................................................................................................................97 Signals of Candidate Ability.................................................................................................................98 Reducing Uncertainty...........................................................................................................................99 Agenda Setting....................................................................................................................................102 Negative Advertising..........................................................................................................................104 A Referendum over Whom?....................................................................................................................105 Chapter 5: Controlling Elected Officials: Retrospective Voting, Incumbency, Term Limits, and Direct Democracy....................................................................................................106 Goodling’s Unusual Election...................................................................................................................106 A Return to Citizen Legislators...............................................................................................................106 The Uselessness of Knowledge...............................................................................................................107 Do Voters Learn During Campaigns?.....................................................................................................108 Money, Information, and Incumbents.....................................................................................................110 Analyzing Elections page 4 The Secret World of Incumbents.............................................................................................................111 Can the Moral Hazard Problem in Elections be Solved?.......................................................................114 A Simple Example..............................................................................................................................114 Voters’ Choice.....................................................................................................................................116 Can the Adverse Selection Problem in Elections be Solved?................................................................117 Parties Redux and Evidence....................................................................................................................118 Retrospective Voting and the Economy..................................................................................................119 Taxes and Spending............................................................................................................................119 Retrospective Voting and Cycles.......................................................................................................121 Should Incumbency be Limited?.............................................................................................................122 The Puzzle of the Rise in Term Limits....................................................................................................124 Voters Changing the Electoral Calendar.................................................................................................125 Too Clever...........................................................................................................................................125 Recall Elections...................................................................................................................................126 Referenda and Initiatives.........................................................................................................................129 California in the 70s............................................................................................................................129 The Effects of Direct Democracy – Theory.......................................................................................130 The Effects of Direct Democracy – Evidence....................................................................................130 Elected versus Appointed Officials.........................................................................................................131 Electing Prosecutors............................................................................................................................131 Electing Judges....................................................................................................................................132 Electing Regulators.............................................................................................................................133 Other Reasons Why Goodling’s Election was Special...........................................................................133 Part II: Congressional and Presidential Elections....................................................135 Chapter 6: Congressional Elections...........................................................................................135 Trying to Make a Difference...................................................................................................................135 Apportionment and Membership of the House of Representatives.......................................................136 Redistricting.............................................................................................................................................137 The Killer D’s......................................................................................................................................137 Checks and Balances or Why DeLay Cared About the Killer D’s...................................................138 The History of Redistricting...............................................................................................................139 Gerrymandering.......................................................................................................................................140 Partisan Bias versus Responsiveness..................................................................................................140 Gerrymandering and Policy................................................................................................................143 The Killer D’s Revisited.....................................................................................................................149 Redistricting and Incumbency.................................................................................................................151 Protecting Incumbents?.......................................................................................................................152 Why do Incumbents Win?..................................................................................................................153 The Decision to Run.................................................................................................................................154 The Expected Utility of Running........................................................................................................154 Political Experience & the Decision to Run.......................................................................................155 The Game Between Challengers........................................................................................................157 Redistricting and Incumbency Advantages Redux............................................................................159 Senate Elections.......................................................................................................................................160 Not all Members are Equal......................................................................................................................162 Are Congressional Races Special?.....................................................................................................162 Does the Majority Party Rule?...........................................................................................................162 The Effect on Congressional Elections..............................................................................................164 Seniority, Elections, and Incumbency.....................................................................................................164 Party Control, Positions of Power, and Upward Political Mobility.......................................................167 Moving Down the Street..........................................................................................................................168 Chapter 7: Presidential Primaries.............................................................................................169 Skipping Around or Sitting in Place?......................................................................................................169 What it takes to get on the Ballot in Primaries........................................................................................170 Analyzing Elections page 5 The Rules.............................................................................................................................................170 The Experience....................................................................................................................................170 Hyperspeed...............................................................................................................................................172 What it takes to get nominated................................................................................................................174 When Conventions Made Real Choices.............................................................................................174 Primaries in a Starring Role................................................................................................................177 Spaced-Out Primaries: 1972-1984......................................................................................................180 Front-Loaded Primaries: 1988-2004..................................................................................................182 How the Current System Works..............................................................................................................184 Do Voters Learn During Primaries?...................................................................................................184 Learning by Voting in Presidential Primaries....................................................................................185 Problems with Learning by Voting....................................................................................................191 How the Current System Works: The Evidence....................................................................................192 Experimenting with Primaries............................................................................................................192 Views of the State of Primaries...............................................................................................................193 Should there be a Return to Convention Rule?..................................................................................193 How Can Primaries be Reformed?.....................................................................................................195 The Next Step...........................................................................................................................................195 Chapter 8: Presidential Elections and Divided Government................................................197 Going West...............................................................................................................................................197 How the Electoral College Works...........................................................................................................198 The Majority Requirement in the Electoral College..........................................................................198 The Electoral Vote Versus the Popular Vote.....................................................................................199 The Electoral College and Campaigning.................................................................................................200 Optimal Campaigning.........................................................................................................................200 The Electoral Vote and Government Spending......................................................................................209 Voters and Divided Government.............................................................................................................210 The Saga of Patient’s Rights...............................................................................................................210 The President and Legislation............................................................................................................211 The Moderating Voter Theory............................................................................................................216 Midterm Elections...............................................................................................................................221 What Happened to the Patients’ Bill of Rights?.....................................................................................224 More Checks and Balances......................................................................................................................225 What About Other Parties and Candidates?............................................................................................227 Part III: Challenging the Majority............................................................................229 Chapter 9: Minor Parties and Independent Candidates........................................................229 Winning by Division................................................................................................................................229 In California........................................................................................................................................229 In Chicago...........................................................................................................................................229 Voter Choices in Three Candidate Elections..........................................................................................230 “The Christine Jorgensen of the Republican Party”..........................................................................230 New York’s 1970 Senate Race...........................................................................................................230 Voting in the Three-Candidate Race in New York............................................................................231 Election Outcomes in the Three-Candidate Race..............................................................................232 Choosing Whether to Party......................................................................................................................232 Moving to More than One Dimension....................................................................................................234 The Paradox of Voting........................................................................................................................234 The Paradox of Voting and American Elections...............................................................................235 The Meaning of Liberal and Conservative.........................................................................................236 Can Minor Party or Independent Candidates Succeed in American Elections?....................................237 Ventura’s Unlikely Achievement.......................................................................................................237 Ventura’s Failure.................................................................................................................................239 Was it Jesse?........................................................................................................................................239 How Many Minor Party and Independent Candidates Are There?........................................................240 Analyzing Elections page 6 Do Voters Vote for Minor Party or Independent Candidates?...............................................................243 Party Labels as Information and Coordination Devices....................................................................244 Nonpartisan Elections, Majority Requirements, and Coordination.......................................................245 Nonpartisan Elections.........................................................................................................................245 Louisiana’s Spicy Politics...................................................................................................................247 Majority Requirements and Coordination..........................................................................................248 Majority Requirements and Independent and Minor Party Candidates............................................249 Not Unique, but Rare . . ..........................................................................................................................250 The Implications for Policy Choices.......................................................................................................250 The Liberal/Conservative Dimension Over Time...................................................................................251 Short Run Stability..............................................................................................................................252 Longer Run Stability...........................................................................................................................252 How Failing to Support David Worley Hurt Democrats in 2000...........................................................254 The Major Political Parties and Civil Rights..........................................................................................255 Chapter 10: Challenging the Majority: Minority Voters and Representation...................257 The Dilemma of Representation..............................................................................................................257 What it Was Like......................................................................................................................................258 The South Today......................................................................................................................................259 Texas....................................................................................................................................................259 Changes in the South: Voting............................................................................................................260 Changes in the South: Office-holding...............................................................................................260 The Current Rise in Diversity within the United States.........................................................................261 Defining Minority Representation...........................................................................................................262 Vote Denial...............................................................................................................................................263 Direct Vote Denial..............................................................................................................................263 Indirect Vote Denial............................................................................................................................264 Vote Dilution............................................................................................................................................268 Vote Dilution versus Vote Denial......................................................................................................268 Methods of Vote Dilution...................................................................................................................269 The Effects of Vote Dilution in the late 19th Century........................................................................273 Majority Requirements and Vote Dilution.........................................................................................273 Vote Dilution and Other Minority Groups.........................................................................................274 Vote Dilution, the 15th Amendment, and the Voting Rights Act...........................................................275 Majority Minority Districts and the Redistricting Debate of the 1990s.................................................276 The New Majority Minority Districts.................................................................................................276 Unconstitutional?................................................................................................................................277 Majority Minority Districts and Other Minorities.............................................................................278 Are Majority Minority Districts Good for Minorities?...........................................................................280 The Effect on State Legislatures.........................................................................................................280 The Effect on Congress.......................................................................................................................283 The Future of Redistricting......................................................................................................................286 Chapter 11: The Future and Analyzing Elections...................................................................288 The 2004 Presidential Contest.................................................................................................................288 Changes in the Electoral System.............................................................................................................289 Truisms.....................................................................................................................................................290 References.....................................................................................................................................291 Chapter 1: The Why and What of Studying American Elections Bush v. Gore, September 11th, and American Elections Both the fall of 2000 and the fall of 2001 were momentous periods for United States citizens. In November 2000 an extremely rare event occurred, a virtually tied election involving millions of voters, whose outcome was debated for weeks, finally resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court. In September 2001 terrorists attacked the World Trade Center in downtown Manhattan and the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. plunging the country into military conflict in Afghanistan and a confrontation with Iraq, as well as bringing to the forefront of political debate issues of domestic security, immigration, civil liberties, and civil rights. From the perspective of 2004, the happenings at the end of 2000 seem almost trivial in comparison to those of the fall of 2001. Yet, the events of November and December 2000 profoundly affected the response of the nation to the attacks on 2001. Because Republican George W. Bush was selected in the presidential contest of 2000, he made the initial policy choices on how the United States would respond to the terrorist attack. The officials in his administration (appointed with the consent of the Senate) similarly made initial policy decisions on how to deal with the terrorists (both domestically and internationally). Statements by Bush’s Democratic opponent in 2000, Al Gore, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and the other candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, and other Democratic officials and party leaders suggest that there would have been differences in how the terrorist attacks would have been handled if Gore had won the election. In particular, Democrats criticized Bush’s response to the terrorist attack for focusing on Iraq and Saddam Hussein instead of Al Queda, the organization directly responsible for the attacks, as well as some of the measures taken by administration officials such as Attorney General John Ashcroft to uncover terrorist networks within the United States. While treading carefully to maintain support for the troops during the war with Iraq, a number of Democrats argued against the war and Bush policies in postwar Iraq. Questions were raised about the justifications for war with Iraq and whether enough effort was being expended to fight Al Qaeda. Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 noted in a speech before firefighters in March 2004 that he believed that Bush had “done too little [in the war on terror] and some things that he didn’t have to. When the focus of the war on terror was appropriately in Afghanistan and on breaking Al Qaeda, President Bush shifted his focus to Iraq and to Saddam Hussein.”1 1Stout, David, “Kerry Criticizes Bush Record on Terrorism,” New York Times, March 15, 2004. For earlier criticism from Gore see Nagorney, Adam, “Gore says Bush’s war on terrorism is ineffective,” The New York Times, November 21, 2002: “Al Gore said today that the United States had failed to destroy Osama bin Laden and dismantle the network of Al Qaeda because President Bush spent the fall campaign ‘beating the drums of war against Saddam Hussein’ instead of prosecuting the war on terror. As a result, Mr. Gore said, Americans are as much at risk of a terrorist attack now as they were before Sept. 11. Mr. Gore said that while the administration had stumbled abroad in dealing with Al Qaeda, it had undertaken the ‘most systematic invasion of privacy of every American citizen that has ever been taken in this country’ with the Analyzing Elections page 8 Democrats also criticized the administration’s policies on North Korea, which the Bush administration labeled part of an axis of evil.2 Would a Democratic administration have pushed for a confrontation with Iraq? Would a Democratic administration have dealt with North Korea differently? Would a Democratic administration have been as willing to investigate library use of its citizens or ask diving shops for lists of those who have taken lessons recently in order to uncover domestic terrorist networks?3 Would a Democratic administration have pushed for a tax cut in the face of increased war and domestic antiterrorist expenditures?4 While we can never experience the counterfactual of a Democratic administration responding to the terrorist attacks of 2001 and the problems of North Korea in 2002 and 2003, these statements by Democrats suggest that there would have been differences. The occurrence of September 11th after the close presidential election of 2000 coupled with the success of President Bush in Afghanistan and the public satisfaction with his ability to handle the terrorist threat, helped the Republican party secure a majority in both houses of Congress in the midterm election of 2002, something that might not have happened if voters had been more concerned about domestic issues at the time of the election. Bush was able to use this majority to push forward further tax cuts in the spring of 2002, which lowered the rates for many wealthy voters. If Gore had been elected in 2000 and proved capable of handling the crises, Democrats might have seen expanded use of wiretapping and secret court proceedings in the war on terrorism. ‘We have always held out the shibboleth of Big Brother as a nightmarish vision of the future that we're going to avoid at all costs,’ Mr. Gore said, speaking heatedly and intensely in an interview here this morning. ‘They have now taken the most fateful step in the direction of that Big Brother nightmare that any president has ever allowed to occur.’” For other Democratic criticism of Bush’s response to the terrorist attacks in 2001 and 2002 see Sack, Kevin, “Former President Carter is ‘Disappointed’ in Bush,” The New York Times, July 25, 2001; Johnston, David and Eric Lichtblau, “Little Headway in Terrorism War, Democrats Say,” The New York Times, November 12, 2002; Milligan, Susan and Elizabeth Neuffer, “Kennedy criticizes Bush on Iraq policy,” The Boston Globe, September 28, 2002; Black, Eric, “Candidates are worlds apart; Wellstone and Coleman take opposite sides on most foreign policy-issues,” Minneapolis Star Tribune, October 20, 2002. Others argued that Democrats needed to criticize Bush’s war on terrorism more explicitly, contending that the statements of Gore and Democrats were “weak”, see for example, “Speechless”, The New Republic, October 7, 2002. In 2003 both before and during the war with Iraq, Democratic criticism was mixed, some arguing against the war, others in support. See for example VandeHei, Jim and Helen Dewar, “Democrats Lambaste Bush on Iraq,” The Washington Post, March 7, 2003; Craff, Christopher, “Dean says he backs troops, but not Bush war policies,” Manchester Union Leader, March 18, 2003; and Lester, Will, “Democratic leaders tout war support,” Associate Press Online, April 9, 2003. 2 For Democratic criticism of Bush’s foreign policy on North Korea, see Westphal, David, “Bush criticized for response to N. Korea; Democrats say reactor demands greater sense of urgency,” Minneapolis Star Tribune, February 7, 2003; Efron, Sonni and Barbara Demick, “Democrats say focus should be on N. Korea,” Los Angeles Times, March 6, 2003; and Kelley, Matt, “Bush sends bombers to Guam to keep eye on North Korea: Democrats demand U.S. talk directly to Pyongyang,” Ottawa Citizen, March 6, 2003; 3 See Moss, Michael and Ford Fessenden, “America under surveillance: Privacy and security; new tools for domestic spying, and qualms,” The New York Times, December 10, 2002; Seper, Jerry, “Ashcroft’s assurance is sought on privacy; 4 Democrats fear tracking system,” The Washington Times, January 14, 2003; and Benjamin, Mark, “Democrats blast Ashcroft surveillance plan,” United Press International, February 10, 2003. 4 See “Democratic Hopefuls Debate War, Tax Cuts,” Associated Press, May 4, 2003; Welna, David, “Democrats argue President Bush’s tax cuts will inflate the federal budget deficit,” National Public Radio, All Things Considered, January 10, 2003; and Hook, Janet, “Democrats enter tax break battle,” Los Angeles Times, January 7, 2003; Analyzing Elections page 9 the same success in the 2002 elections but with probably different domestic policy consequences. The lesson from 2000 and its subsequent effects on American reactions to the terrorist attacks and American policy making as a consequence is that elections dominate American politics. The election calendar deeply influences the timing of public policy choices; economic decisions are impacted by elections and electoral outcomes; fights over the right to vote and how votes are counted have historically resulted in some of our most serious political strife and significant court decisions; and a considerable amount of financial resources and expenditure of effort and time is engaged in the electoral process. Our elected officials seem constantly driven by the next election campaign and every political event is interpreted by the media in the context of current or future campaigns. Despite claims of widespread cynicism about politics, low turnout, and high levels of voter apathy, almost all levels of American society are involved in elections from Buddhist Nuns in southern California to dairy farmers in Vermont. Understanding how elections work is crucial for understanding American politics and policy choices. Actors and Institutions In this book we investigate the American electoral process and the roles played by actors and institutions. In the 2000 presidential election the principal actors were of course the voters, the candidates, the members of the Supreme Court of Florida and of the United States, the election officials in Florida and other states, as well as a host of party and elected officials and interest groups. We will meet a lot of other actors in American elections and hear their stories in the chapters to come. Some of the people we will meet are elected officials like Diane Feinstein, who successfully defeated a recall attempt while mayor leading to a seat in the U.S. Senate; Jeb Bush, who had to learn to moderate on policy; Jesse Ventura, who challenged the entire major two party system and defeated it; Charlie Norwood, who tried to push through patient’s rights legislation; Harold Washington, who surprised many by becoming the first black mayor of Chicago; etc. We will discuss interest group leaders like Betty Friedan, the feminist who helped mobilize women and Don Smith, a union leader in Detroit, Michigan. We will meet Hollywood stars who actively campaign in elections such as Ben Affleck. But we will also talk about individuals such as Amanda Strom from St. Louis who didn’t believe her vote will make a difference and Fannie Jeffrey whose parents moved from Alabama in the early 1900s in order to have the right to vote that Ms. Strom did not use. However, focusing only on the actors and their choices would give us an incomplete view of American elections and how they influence American politics. Our electoral institutions (the rules that determine who votes, the geographical areas represented by the elected officials, the ways in which votes are counted, which public officials are chosen through elections rather than appointment, whether elected officials in one branch of government must compromise with officials in another branch of government to choose policy) play crucial roles in how elections dominate American politics. For example, because we elect presidents through an electoral college system rather than by direct popular vote, the winner of the 2000 election was not the popular vote winner. That is, although George W. Bush received 50,456,002 popular votes to Al Gore’s total of 50,999,897, since Bush won more electoral voters (271 to 266), Bush became president. Analyzing Elections page 10 Moreover, because we elect our president and Congress in separate elections, have an independent judiciary, and a federal structure of government with independently elected state and local officials, one single election outcome is unlikely to fully determine the policy choices of government. Although Bush was the winner in 2000, in early 2001 when Vermont Republican Senator James Jeffords declared his independence of the party and gave Democrats majority control over the Senate, Bush and his party recognized that in order to enact policies he preferred he needed support from Democrats in the Senate. For instance, initially Bush opposed an independent commission to investigate the reasons why the September 11th attacks were not anticipated fully by United States intelligence agencies, but agreed to a commission because of the wishes of members in Congress and other state and local elected officials. The legislation creating the commission was a carefully crafted compromise between Democratic and Republican members of Congress and the President.5 Furthermore, because of Jefford’s defection, Bush and the Republicans saw the Senate election of 2002 as an opportunity to change the balance of power in the Senate. They recognized that an Congressional election held between presidential elections could have consequential effects on the extent that a president can enact policies he or she desires. Yet, because only a third of the Senate was up for reelection, the balance of power in the nation and the types of policies that would be enacted hinged on contests in only those states. These states also vary in the rules that govern how parties nominate candidates and the rules that govern who is selected in the general election. One of the most contested of the Senate races was in Louisiana where Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu ran for reelection. In the November general election, although Landrieu received more votes than any other candidate (a plurality), she received only 46% of the vote, less than a majority. In some states this would have meant immediate victory, but in Louisiana since she had less than 50% of the vote, she had to compete a second time in a runoff election against her closest opponent. Moreover, unlike other Senate races in November, Landrieu faced not just one Republican opponent with sizeable support in the general election, but three different Republican candidates, because Louisiana’s elections are nonpartisan without party primaries or nominating conventions to choose one major party candidate for the general election. Republican voters and party leaders divided between these candidates, resulting in none receiving as many votes as Landrieu, while Landrieu still did not receive a majority.6 But Republicans still had a chance to defeat Landrieu in the runoff election in December, which meant that until the runoff was held, how many Republicans and Democrats were actually in the Senate for the coming term was uncertain. Landrieu did win in the runoff despite strong campaigning from Bush and other Republicans, who united around her opponent. The shared, but limited power feature of the American governmental system, coupled with separate elections, scheduled at different times, in states with different 5 See Dewar, Helen, “Deal reached on 9/11 commission; Bipartisan panel to probe what led up to attacks,” The Washington Post, November 15, 2002. 6 Republican governor Foster supported Cooksey while Bush and the National Republican Senatorial Committee supported Terrell. See Alpert, Bruce, “Landrieu camp breathing easier with Foster out,” The New Orleans Times-Picayune, August 25, 2002 and “NRSC hoping to force Landrieu into runoff,” The Bulletin’s Frontrunner, October 15, 2002.

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Impressionability..97. Signals of Candidate Ability.
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