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Statistics Second Texts in Statistical Science Edition Analysis of Variance, Design, and Regression: Linear Modeling for Unbalanced Analysis of A Data, Second Edition presents linear structures for modeling data with an n emphasis on how to incorporate specific ideas (hypotheses) about the structure a l of the data into a linear model for the data. The book carefully analyzes small data y Variance, Design, s sets by using tools that are easily scaled to big data. The tools also apply to small i s relevant data sets that are extracted from big data. o New to the Second Edition f and Regression V • Reorganized to focus on unbalanced data a • Reworked balanced analyses using methods for unbalanced data r i a • Introductions to nonparametric and lasso regression n Linear Modeling for • Introductions to general additive and generalized additive models c • Examination of homologous factors e , Unbalanced Data • Unbalanced split plot analyses D • Extensions to generalized linear models e s • R, Minitab®, and SAS codes on the author’s website i Second Edition g The text can be used in a variety of courses, including a yearlong graduate course n , on regression and ANOVA or a data analysis course for upper-division statistics a students and graduate students from other fields. It places a strong emphasis n d on interpreting the range of computer output encountered when dealing with R unbalanced data. e g Ronald Christensen is a professor of statistics in the Department of Mathematics r e and Statistics at the University of New Mexico. Dr. Christensen is a fellow of the s American Statistical Association (ASA) and Institute of Mathematical Statistics. He s i is a past editor of The American Statistician and a past chair of the ASA’s Section o n on Bayesian Statistical Science. His research interests include linear models, Bayesian inference, log-linear and logistic models, and statistical methods. C h r i s t e n s Ronald Christensen e n K26114 www.crcpress.com K26114_cover.indd 1 11/9/15 2:22 PM Analysis of Variance, Design, and Regression Linear Modeling for Unbalanced Data Second Edition CHAPMAN & HALL/CRC Texts in Statistical Science Series Series Editors Francesca Dominici, Harvard School of Public Health, USA Julian J. Faraway, University of Bath, UK Martin Tanner, Northwestern University, USA Jim Zidek, University of British Columbia, Canada Statistical Theory: A Concise Introduction Statistics for Technology: A Course in Applied F. Abramovich and Y. Ritov Statistics, Third Edition C. Chatfield Practical Multivariate Analysis, Fifth Edition A. Afifi, S. May, and V.A. Clark Analysis of Variance, Design, and Regression : Linear Modeling for Unbalanced Data, Second Practical Statistics for Medical Research Edition D.G. Altman R. Christensen Interpreting Data: A First Course in Statistics Bayesian Ideas and Data Analysis: An A.J.B. Anderson Introduction for Scientists and Statisticians R. Christensen, W. Johnson, A. Branscum, Introduction to Probability with R and T.E. Hanson K. Baclawski Modelling Binary Data, Second Edition Linear Algebra and Matrix Analysis for D. Collett Statistics S. Banerjee and A. Roy Modelling Survival Data in Medical Research, Third Edition Mathematical Statistics: Basic Ideas and D. Collett Selected Topics, Volume I, Second Edition P. J. Bickel and K. A. Doksum Introduction to Statistical Methods for Clinical Trials Mathematical Statistics: Basic Ideas and T.D. Cook and D.L. DeMets Selected Topics, Volume II P. J. Bickel and K. A. Doksum Applied Statistics: Principles and Examples Analysis of Categorical Data with R D.R. Cox and E.J. Snell C. R. Bilder and T. M. Loughin Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Statistical Methods for SPC and TQM Risks D. Bissell M. Crowder Introduction to Probability Statistical Analysis of Reliability Data J. K. Blitzstein and J. Hwang M.J. Crowder, A.C. Kimber, T.J. Sweeting, and R.L. Smith Bayesian Methods for Data Analysis, Third Edition An Introduction to Generalized B.P. Carlin and T.A. Louis Linear Models, Third Edition A.J. Dobson and A.G. Barnett Second Edition R. Caulcutt Nonlinear Time Series: Theory, Methods, and Applications with R Examples The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction, R. Douc, E. Moulines, and D.S. Stoffer Sixth Edition C. Chatfield Introduction to Optimization Methods and Their Applications in Statistics Introduction to Multivariate Analysis B.S. Everitt C. Chatfield and A.J. Collins Extending the Linear Model with R: Problem Solving: A Statistician’s Guide, Generalized Linear, Mixed Effects and Second Edition Nonparametric Regression Models C. Chatfield J.J. Faraway Linear Models with R, Second Edition Exercises and Solutions in Biostatistical Theory J.J. Faraway L.L. Kupper, B.H. Neelon, and S.M. O’Brien A Course in Large Sample Theory Exercises and Solutions in Statistical Theory T.S. Ferguson L.L. Kupper, B.H. Neelon, and S.M. O’Brien Multivariate Statistics: A Practical Design and Analysis of Experiments with R Approach J. Lawson B. Flury and H. Riedwyl Design and Analysis of Experiments with SAS Readings in Decision Analysis J. Lawson S. French A Course in Categorical Data Analysis Markov Chain Monte Carlo: T. Leonard Stochastic Simulation for Bayesian Inference, Statistics for Accountants Second Edition S. Letchford D. Gamerman and H.F. Lopes Introduction to the Theory of Statistical Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition Inference A. Gelman, J.B. Carlin, H.S. Stern, D.B. Dunson, H. Liero and S. Zwanzig A. Vehtari, and D.B. Rubin Statistical Theory, Fourth Edition Multivariate Analysis of Variance and B.W. Lindgren Repeated Measures: A Practical Approach for Stationary Stochastic Processes: Theory and Behavioural Scientists Applications D.J. Hand and C.C. Taylor G. Lindgren Practical Longitudinal Data Analysis Statistics for Finance D.J. Hand and M. Crowder E. Lindström, H. Madsen, and J. N. Nielsen Logistic Regression Models The BUGS Book: A Practical Introduction to J.M. Hilbe Bayesian Analysis Richly Parameterized Linear Models: D. Lunn, C. Jackson, N. Best, A. Thomas, and Additive, Time Series, and Spatial Models D. Spiegelhalter Using Random Effects Introduction to General and Generalized J.S. Hodges Linear Models Statistics for Epidemiology H. Madsen and P. Thyregod N.P. Jewell Time Series Analysis Stochastic Processes: An Introduction, H. Madsen Second Edition Pólya Urn Models P.W. Jones and P. Smith H. Mahmoud The Theory of Linear Models Randomization, Bootstrap and Monte Carlo B. Jørgensen Methods in Biology, Third Edition Principles of Uncertainty B.F.J. Manly J.B. Kadane Introduction to Randomized Controlled Graphics for Statistics and Data Analysis with R Clinical Trials, Second Edition K.J. Keen J.N.S. Matthews Mathematical Statistics Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with K. Knight Examples in R and Stan Introduction to Multivariate Analysis: R. McElreath Linear and Nonlinear Modeling Statistical Methods in Agriculture and S. Konishi Experimental Biology, Second Edition Nonparametric Methods in Statistics with SAS R. Mead, R.N. Curnow, and A.M. Hasted Applications Statistics in Engineering: A Practical Approach O. Korosteleva A.V. Metcalfe Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Systems, Second Edition V.G. Kulkarni Statistical Inference: An Integrated Approach, Spatio-Temporal Methods in Environmental Second Edition Epidemiology H. S. Migon, D. Gamerman, and G. Shaddick and J.V. Zidek F. Louzada Decision Analysis: A Bayesian Approach Beyond ANOVA: Basics of Applied Statistics J.Q. Smith R.G. Miller, Jr. Analysis of Failure and Survival Data A Primer on Linear Models P. J. Smith J.F. Monahan Applied Statistics: Handbook of GENSTAT Applied Stochastic Modelling, Second Edition Analyses B.J.T. Morgan E.J. Snell and H. Simpson Elements of Simulation Applied Nonparametric Statistical Methods, B.J.T. Morgan Fourth Edition P. Sprent and N.C. Smeeton Probability: Methods and Measurement A. O’Hagan Data Driven Statistical Methods P. Sprent Introduction to Statistical Limit Theory A.M. Polansky Generalized Linear Mixed Models: Modern Concepts, Methods and Applications Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series W. W. Stroup Analysis A. Pole, M. West, and J. Harrison Survival Analysis Using S: Analysis of Time-to-Event Data Statistics in Research and Development, M. Tableman and J.S. Kim Time Series: Modeling, Computation, and Inference Applied Categorical and Count Data Analysis R. Prado and M. West W. Tang, H. He, and X.M. Tu Introduction to Statistical Process Control Elementary Applications of Probability Theory, P. Qiu Second Edition H.C. Tuckwell Sampling Methodologies with Applications P.S.R.S. Rao Introduction to Statistical Inference and Its Applications with R A First Course in Linear Model Theory M.W. Trosset N. Ravishanker and D.K. Dey Understanding Advanced Statistical Methods Essential Statistics, Fourth Edition P.H. Westfall and K.S.S. Henning D.A.G. Rees Statistical Process Control: Theory and Stochastic Modeling and Mathematical Practice, Third Edition Statistics: A Text for Statisticians and G.B. Wetherill and D.W. Brown Quantitative Scientists F.J. Samaniego Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction with R Statistical Methods for Spatial Data Analysis S. Wood O. Schabenberger and C.A. Gotway Epidemiology: Study Design and Bayesian Networks: With Examples in R Data Analysis, Third Edition M. Scutari and J.-B. Denis M. Woodward Large Sample Methods in Statistics Practical Data Analysis for Designed P.K. Sen and J. da Motta Singer Experiments B.S. Yandell Texts in Statistical Science Analysis of Variance, Design, and Regression Linear Modeling for Unbalanced Data Second Edition Ronald Christensen University of New Mexico Albuquerque, USA CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 © 2016 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business No claim to original U.S. Government works Version Date: 20151221 International Standard Book Number-13: 978-1-4987-7405-5 (eBook - PDF) This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher cannot assume responsibility for the valid- ity of all materials or the consequences of their use. The authors and publishers have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication and apologize to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained. If any copyright material has not been acknowledged please write and let us know so we may rectify in any future reprint. Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced, transmitted, or uti- lized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopy- ing, microfilming, and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers. For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, please access www.copyright.com (http:// www.copyright.com/) or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. CCC is a not-for-profit organization that provides licenses and registration for a variety of users. For organizations that have been granted a photocopy license by the CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the CRC Press Web site at http://www.crcpress.com To Mark, Karl, and John It was great fun. Contents Preface xvii EditedPrefacetoFirstEdition xxi Computing xxv 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Probability 1 1.2 Randomvariablesandexpectations 4 1.2.1 Expectedvaluesandvariances 6 1.2.2 Chebyshev’sinequality 9 1.2.3 Covariancesandcorrelations 10 1.2.4 Rulesforexpectedvaluesandvariances 12 1.3 Continuousdistributions 13 1.4 Thebinomialdistribution 17 1.4.1 Poissonsampling 21 1.5 Themultinomialdistribution 21 1.5.1 IndependentPoissonsandmultinomials 23 1.6 Exercises 24 2 OneSample 27 2.1 Exampleandintroduction 27 2.2 Parametricinferenceaboutμ 31 2.2.1 Significancetests 34 2.2.2 Confidenceintervals 37 2.2.3 Pvalues 38 2.3 Predictionintervals 39 2.4 Modeltesting 42 2.5 Checkingnormality 43 2.6 Transformations 48 2.7 Inferenceaboutσ2 51 2.7.1 Theory 54 2.8 Exercises 55 3 GeneralStatisticalInference 57 3.1 Model-basedtesting 58 3.1.1 AnalternativeF test 64 3.2 Inferenceonsingleparameters:assumptions 64 3.3 Parametrictests 66 3.4 Confidenceintervals 70 3.5 Pvalues 72 3.6 Validityoftestsandconfidenceintervals 75 3.7 Theoryofpredictionintervals 75 ix

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