analysis of climate change impact on hydrological ecosystem services and water allocation in ...

207 Pages·2014·4.62 MB·English

ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON HYDROLOGICAL
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND WATER ALLOCATION IN WATER SCARCE
MEDITERRANEAN RIVER BASINS

Rubab Fatima Bangash

Dipòsit Legal: T 965-2014
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UNIVERSITAT ROVIRA I VIRGILI
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON HYDROLOGICAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND WATER ALLOCATION IN WATER
SCARCE MEDITERRANEAN RIVER BASINS
Rubab Fatima Bangash
Dipòsit Legal: T 965-2014

Rubab Fatima Bangash

ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON
HYDROLOGICAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND
WATER ALLOCATION IN WATER SCARCE
MEDITERRANEAN RIVER BASINS

DOCTORAL THESIS

Supervisors:
Dr. Marta Schuhmacher
&
Dr. Ana Carolina Passuello

Department of Chemical Engineering

Environmental Analysis and Management Group

Tarragona
2014
UNIVERSITAT ROVIRA I VIRGILI
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON HYDROLOGICAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND WATER ALLOCATION IN WATER
SCARCE MEDITERRANEAN RIVER BASINS
Rubab Fatima Bangash
Dipòsit Legal: T 965-2014
UNIVERSITAT ROVIRA I VIRGILI
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON HYDROLOGICAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND WATER ALLOCATION IN WATER
SCARCE MEDITERRANEAN RIVER BASINS
Rubab Fatima Bangash
Dipòsit Legal: T 965-2014

Departament of Chemical Engineering
Av. Països Catalans, 26
Campus Sescelades
43007 Tarragona
Tel.: [phone]
Fax: [phone]

Certificate

The present thesis entitled “Analysis of climate change impact on
hydrological ecosystem services and water allocation in water scarce
Mediterranean river basins” is carried out by Rubab Fatima Bangash at
Envronmental Analysis and Management Group in the Department of
Chemical Engineering at the Universitat Rovira i Virgili (URV) under a
supervision of Prof. Dr. Marta Schuhmacher and Dr. Ana Passuello.
This doctoral thesis is submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for
European Mention of the PhD in Chemical, Environmental and Process
Engineering.

Tarragona, January 28, 2014

Supervisor of doctoral thesis Co-supervisor of doctoral thesis
I
UNIVERSITAT ROVIRA I VIRGILI
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON HYDROLOGICAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND WATER ALLOCATION IN WATER
SCARCE MEDITERRANEAN RIVER BASINS
Rubab Fatima Bangash
Dipòsit Legal: T 965-2014
UNIVERSITAT ROVIRA I VIRGILI
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON HYDROLOGICAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND WATER ALLOCATION IN WATER
SCARCE MEDITERRANEAN RIVER BASINS
Rubab Fatima Bangash
Dipòsit Legal: T 965-2014

In memory of my wonderful father “Inayat Hussain Bangash”,
who will truly be missed but never forgotten…
to my great mother, for her endless prayers,
to my beloved brothers and sisters,
for their love and support,
to my understanding husband
for his spiritual and moral support and love.

III
UNIVERSITAT ROVIRA I VIRGILI
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON HYDROLOGICAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND WATER ALLOCATION IN WATER
SCARCE MEDITERRANEAN RIVER BASINS
Rubab Fatima Bangash
Dipòsit Legal: T 965-2014

Acknowledgements

I owe my gratitude to all those people who have made this dissertation possible
and because of whom my PhD experience has been one that I will cherish forever.

My deepest gratitude is to my supervisor, Dr. Marta Schuhmacher. I have been
amazingly fortunate to have an advisor who gave me the freedom to explore on my
own, and at the same time the guidance to recover when my steps faltered. Her patience
and support helped me overcome many crisis situations and finish this dissertation. I
hope that one day I would become as good an advisor to my students as Marta has been
to me.

My co-supervisor, Dr. Ana Passuello, has been always there to listen and give
advice and taught me how to question thoughts and express ideas. I am deeply grateful
to her for the guidance and criticism that helped me sort out the technical details of my
work.

My lab mates who have helped me stay sane through these difficult years. Their
support and care helped me overcome setbacks and stay focused on my work. I am
particularly indebted to Neus Roig for advice, help and opinions on any issue, Montse
Marquès (so friendly and I’m glad to have her as a friend) for being always there for
me, Quim Rovira for creating lively, enthusiastic, and energetic work environment,
Amores for giving me motivation to work hard, Francesc for being a nice and helpful
person, Oda for helping me out with data management, Eskinder and Vikas for their
continuous encouragement and guidance.
IV
UNIVERSITAT ROVIRA I VIRGILI
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON HYDROLOGICAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND WATER ALLOCATION IN WATER
SCARCE MEDITERRANEAN RIVER BASINS
Rubab Fatima Bangash
Dipòsit Legal: T 965-2014

I deeply appreciate Montse Mari who always helped me to maintain all the
systems so efficiently that I never had to worry about, creating backups or arranging
documents for any administrative purpose.

I am also grateful to our SCARCE project partners Vicenç Acuña, Laurie Boithias
and Marta Terrado from Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA) who have been
helpful in providing scientific advice and knowledge and many insightful discussions
and suggestions.

I am also thankful to Dr. Michael Hammond from University of Exeter, UK for
consistent notation in my writings and for carefully reading and commenting on
countless revisions of manuscripts.

I will forever be thankful to Dr. Isabela Butnar for her various forms of support
during my first year of work that helped me adjust to a new place.

I am also thankful to Postgraduate Technician, Núria Juanpere who always
provided quickly all the required documents and advices for administrative purpose.

To the staff and colleagues at Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) Bangor,
Wales in the UK, I am grateful for the chance to visit and be a part of the research
group. Thank you for welcoming me as a visiting student and helping to develop the
ideas in this thesis. I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to Dr. Jack Cosby for
his support and inspiration. Jack has been supportive and has given me the freedom to
V
UNIVERSITAT ROVIRA I VIRGILI
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON HYDROLOGICAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND WATER ALLOCATION IN WATER
SCARCE MEDITERRANEAN RIVER BASINS
Rubab Fatima Bangash
Dipòsit Legal: T 965-2014

pursue any project of my interest and provided a rich and fertile environment in the final
stretch of the thesis write-up.

I greatly value the friendship of my flatmates Asta, Maryluz, Merce and Dailyn
for providing support and help that I needed especially when I was sick and depressed.

I would not have contemplated this road if not for my parents instilled within me a
love of creative pursuits, science, good foundation with which to meet life, all of which
finds a place in this thesis. I am thankful to my parents with all my heart and soul, none
of this would have been possible without their love, prayers, sacrifices and patience. My
family to whom this dissertation is dedicated to, has been a constant source of love,
concern, support and strength all these years. I would like to express my heart-felt
gratitude to my family.

My extended family has also encouraged me throughout this endeavor. I warmly
appreciate the generosity and understanding of my husband. He has given me
confidence and motivated me in so many ways. Through his love, patience, support and
unwavering belief in me, I’ve been able to complete this long dissertation journey.

Finally, I appreciate the financial support from AGAUR (Commissioner for
Universities and Research of the Department of Innovation, Universities and Enterprise
of the “Generalitat de Catalunya” and the European Social Fund that provided PhD
fellowships. I would also like to acknowlwdge the project SCARCE (Consolider-
Ingenio 2010 CSD2009-00065) that funded parts of the research discussed in this
dissertation.
VI
UNIVERSITAT ROVIRA I VIRGILI
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON HYDROLOGICAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND WATER ALLOCATION IN WATER
SCARCE MEDITERRANEAN RIVER BASINS
Rubab Fatima Bangash
Dipòsit Legal: T 965-2014

Contents

List of figures ...............................................................................................................XI
List of tables ..............................................................................................................XIV
List of acronyms, abbreviations and notation ........................................................XVI
Summary.....................................................................................................................XIX
Preface ....................................................................................................................XXIX

Part I. Introduction and Framework ...........................................................................1
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................2
1.1 Water scarcity and climate change……..................................................................2
1.2 Water allocation......................................................................................................6
1.3 Ecosystem services..................................................................................................7
1.4 Decision support System.......................................................................................11
1.5 Climate change standards......................................................................................12
1.6 Motivation of the dissertation.............................................................................12
1.7 Objectives ...........................................................................................................14

2. Material and Methods.......................................................................................16
2.1Methodological approach.....................................................................................16
2.2Hydrological modelin...........................................................................................17
2.3Ecosystem services modelling..............................................................................19
2.4Decision making tools...........................................................................................21

Part II. Water Allocation in Low-flow Rivers ..........................................................23
3. Water allocation assessment in low flow river under data scarce conditions:
A study of hydrological simulation in Mediterranean basin

Abstract................................................................................................................27
3.1Introduction…........................................................................................................28
3.2Study area and dataset............................................................................................31
3.2.1 Hydrological regime....................................................................................32
3.2.2 NAM rainfall-runoff model .....................................................................35

VII