Analisis Laporan Keuangan final

121 Pages·2010·1.27 MB·English

ANALISIS
LAPORAN KEUANGAN
Lembaga Management
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia
LMFEUI
BBuussiinneessss AAnnaallyyssiiss
Evaluate Risks
Evaluate Prospects
Business Decision Makers
•• EEqquuiittyy iinnvveessttoorrss
• Creditors
• Managers
• Merger and Acquisition Analysts
• External Auditors
• Directors
• Regulators
• Employees & Unions
• Lawyers
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LMFEUI
IInnffoorrmmaattiioonn SSoouurrcceess ffoorr
BBuussiinneessss AAnnaallyyssiiss
Quantitative Qualitative
• Management Discussion &
• Financial Statements
AAnnaallyyssiiss
•• IInndduussttrryy SSttaattiissttiiccss
• Chairperson’s Letter
• Economic Indicators
• Vision/Mission Statement
• Regulatory filings
• Financial Press
• Trade reports
• Press Releases
• Web sites
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CCrreeddiitt AAnnaallyyssiiss
LMFEUI
Creditors
Trade Creditors Non-trade Creditors
• Provide goods or services
• Provide major financing
•• MMoosstt sshhoorrtt--tteerrmm
• Most long-term
• Usually implicit interest
• Usually explicit interest
• Bear risk of default
• Bear risk of default
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CCrreeddiitt AAnnaallyyssiiss LMFEUI
Credit worthiness: Ability to honor credit obligations
(downside risk)
Liquidity Solvency
Ability to meet short-term Ability to meet long-term
oobblliiggaattiioonnss oobblliiggaattiioonnss
Focus: Focus:
• Current Financial • Long-term financial
conditions conditions
• Current cash flows • Long-term cash flows
• Liquidity of assets • Extended profitability
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LMFEUI
EEqquuiittyy AAnnaallyyssiiss
Assessment of downside risk and upside
potential
Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis
Charting
Determine value without
(cid:1)PPaatttteerrnnss iinn pprriiccee bbeehhaavviioorr oorr rreeffeerreennccee ttoo pprriiccee
volume history
(cid:1)Analyze and interpret
(cid:1)Predict future price movements
(cid:2)
Economy
(cid:2)
Industry
(cid:2)
Company
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Framework Financial Statement Analysis
LMFEUI
Business
Environment &
Strategy Analysis
Industry Strategy
Analysis Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Accounting Analysis
Prospective
of Sources Risk
Analysis
Analysis
Profitability &Uses of Analysis
Analysis Funds
Cost of Capital Estimate Intrinsic Value
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LMFEUI
IInndduussttrryy aannaallyyssiiss
(cid:1) Analyzing a firm’s profit potential (cid:3) asses the profit
potential of each industries.
(cid:1) Each industries have profitability differences (cid:3) five
ffoorrcceess
(cid:1) Intensity of competition determines the potential for
creating profit by abnormal profit (market structure)
(cid:1) Degree of actual and potential competition (cid:3) depend on
industry market structure
(cid:1) In competitive market (cid:3) no company gain the abnormal
profit.
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IInndduussttrryy ssttrruuccttuurree && PPrrooffiittaabbiilliittyy LMFEUI
Rivalry Among
Threat of New
Threat of Substitutes
Existing Firm
Entrance
Product
• Industry growth
• Scale of economies
• Relative Price and
• Concentration
• Distribution access
performance
• Differentiation
• Relationships
• Buyers willingness to
• Switching Cost
• Legal barriers
switch
• Fixed variable cost
• Excess Capacity
• EExxiitt bbaarrrriieerrss
INDUSTRY PROFITABILITY
Bargaining power of Bargaining power of
Buyers Suppliers
• Switching costs • Switching costs
• Differentiation • Differentiation
• Importance of product for • Importance of product for
cost and quality cost and quality
• Number of buyers • Number of buyers
• Volume per buyer • Volume per buyer
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AAccccoouunnttiinngg AAnnaallyyssiiss
LMFEUI
Process to evaluate and adjust financial
statements to better reflect economic reality
CCoommppaarraabbiilliittyy pprroobblleemmss —— aaccrroossss ffiirrmmss aanndd aaccrroossss ttiimmee
Manager estimation error
Accounting
Distortion problems Earnings management
Risk
Distortion of business
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