i An Introduction to Population- Level Prevention of Non- Communicable Diseases ii iii An Introduction to Population- Level Prevention of Non- Communicable Diseases Edited by Mike Rayner British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches for Non- Communicable Diseases Prevention, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, UK Kremlin Wickramasinghe British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches for Non- Communicable Diseases Prevention, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, UK Julianne Williams British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches for Non- Communicable Diseases Prevention, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, UK Karen McColl Freelance consultant/ writer Shanthi Mendis Geneva Learning Foundation, Geneva, Switzerland 1 iv 1 Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, OX2 6DP, United Kingdom Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries © Oxford University Press 2017 The moral rights of the authors have been asserted First Edition published in 2017 Impression: 1 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by licence or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organization. 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The authors and the publishers do not accept responsibility or legal liability for any errors in the text or for the misuse or misapplication of material in this work. Except where otherwise stated, drug dosages and recommendations are for the non-p regnant adult who is not breast- feeding Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and for information only. Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials contained in any third party website referenced in this work. v Foreword Non- communicable diseases (NCDs), including heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes, and chronic lung disease, are collectively responsible for more than two- thirds of all deaths worldwide. Primarily four risk factors are responsible for the burden of NCDs: tobacco use, physical inactivity, the harmful use of alcohol, and unhealthy diets. Almost three- quarters of all deaths from NCDs before the age of 70 occur in low- and middle- income countries. For a long time there was a strong belief that NCDs are asso- ciated with affluent lifestyles. But current statistics clearly show that not just developed countries, but low- and middle- income countries face a growing burden of NCDs and that it is in some of the poorest populations around the world where NCDs have the greatest impact. In 2011 a high- level meeting of the United Nations recognized the growing burden of NCDs as a threat to global development and called for actions from heads of state to tackle the issue. The inclusion of a goal to reduce premature mortality from NCDs by one- third in the Sustainable Development Goals agreed in 2015 was a turning point in scaling up the global response. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a series of actions to tackle NCDs and they can be categorized as the following: improved governance, tackling risk factors more effectively, strengthening health systems, and bet- ter monitoring and evaluation. Health systems in all but a few countries are more focused on treatment of individuals with disease than prevention. Population-l evel prevention approaches such as national- level policies to raise taxes on tobacco or restrict the market- ing of unhealthy food and drinks to children are likely to be extremely cost-e ffective, but many countries lack the capacity to implement such actions. Since 2012 the WHO Collaborating Centre on Population Approaches for Non- Communicable Disease Prevention at the Nuffield Department for Population Health, University of Oxford has organized a regular short course on population approaches to NCD prevention. With the participation of other experts, including representatives of WHO, the course aims to build capacity for population- level action to tackle NCDs. However, given the large number of trained professionals needed to tackle this global issue, a face-t o- face training programme is not able to reach everyone who requires the knowledge and skills necessary for effective action. An Introduction to Population- Level Prevention of Non- Communicable Diseases is mainly based on material presented at the course, and it provides an exciting opportu- nity for this to be shared with a greater global audience. This book brings together evi- dence about different aspects of the problem of NCDs and their solution for academics, policy- makers, and other practitioners. It is structured around the key steps of the policy cycle and encourages evidence- based policy- making and evaluation at a population level. vi vi FOREWORD While providing the general principles and scientific basis to population-l evel prevention for NCDs, it also provides case studies from countries around the world seeking to imple- ment such prevention in practice. I hope this book will play a significant role in our global response to the prevention of NCDs in coming years and decades. I congratulate the authors on this publication and wish every success for the dissemination and future updates. Dr Oleg Chestnov Assistant Director- General— Noncommunicable Diseases and Mental Health World Health Organization vii Acknowledgements We would like to thank all the participants and resource persons who have presented at the short course on Prevention Strategies for Non- Communicable Diseases run by the University of Oxford. This book is based on presentations made during short courses held between 2012 and 2015. Presenters during these courses included the following: Steve Allender, Virginia Arnold, Prachi Bhatnagar, Francesco Branca, Adam Briggs, Simon Capewell, Sudeep Chand, Michel Coleman, Gill Cowburn, Aiden Doherty, Kaia Engesveen, Charlie Foster, Gauden Galea, Simon Gillespie, Celina Gorre, Corinna Hawkes, Shabbar Jaffar, Prasad Katulanda, Mike Kelly, Paul Kelly, Mike Knapton, Alexandra Krettek, David Matthews, Karina McHardy, Klim McPherson, Shanthi Mendis, Bente Mikkelsen, Colin Mitchell, Modi Mwatsama, Oliver Mytton, Melanie Nichols, Brian Oldenburg, Richard Peto, Emma Plugge, Johanna Ralston, Mike Rayner, Srinath Reddy, Aaron Reeves, Justin Richards, Harry Rutter, Peter Scarborough, David Stuckler, William Summerskill, Nick Townsend, Temo Waqanivalu, Kremlin Wickramasinghe, Denis Xavier, and Xuefeng Zhong. This book contains a number of case studies. The following individuals contributed to these cases studies or provided other additional material for the book: Luke Allen, Simone Bösch, Hannah Brinsden, Linda Cobiac, Dylan Collins, Alessandro de Maio, Randa Hamadeh, Erin Hoare, Nousin Hussain, Kiran Jobanputra, Sandeep Kishore, Alexandra Krettek, Tim Lang, Nijole Gostautaite Midttun, Modi Mwatsama, Jessica Pullar, Nabil Sulaiman, Anne- Marie Thow, Daniel Vujcich, Temo Waqanivalu, and Rouham Yamout. We also appreciate the help of Sahar Bhatti, Oluwatosin Ogunmoyero, Anja Mizdrak, and Lizzie Wilkins, who documented presentations and discussions from the short course. We would also like to thank all our colleagues at the British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches for Non- Communicable Disease Prevention, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford and the Department for Continuing Education, University of Oxford for their support throughout this publica- tion. Finally, we are so grateful for the team at the Oxford University Press, who worked very hard to publish this book on a tight timeline. Thank you to James Cox, Geraldine Jeffers, Catherine Barnes, and Nicola Wilson for their tireless help as we prepared the manuscript for publication. viii ix Contents Foreword v Acknowledgements vii Abbreviations xi Part I Introduction 1 Introduction 3 Part II Problem definition 2 Understanding NCDs 13 3 NCDs: Risk factors and determinants 31 4 The sociopolitical landscape of NCDs, Part I 47 5 The sociopolitical landscape of NCDs, Part II 63 6 Public health advocacy for the prevention of NCDs 81 7 Screening and surveillance 107 Part III Solution generation 8 Evidence for population- level approaches to the prevention of NCDs: Evaluating effectiveness and modelling 129 9 Evidence for population- level approaches to the prevention of NCDs: Economic evaluation 147 10 Developing a prevention strategy 167 Part IV Resource mobilization and implementation 11 Capacity building 181 12 Implementation of an NCD prevention strategy 191 13 Implementation: Beyond the health sector 207 Part V Monitoring progress 14 Evaluation and monitoring 227 15 Revisiting the stages of the policy cycle 249 Index 257