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An Introduction to Outlier Analysis - Charu Aggarwal PDF

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Preview An Introduction to Outlier Analysis - Charu Aggarwal

PDF Downloadable from http://rd.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-47578-3 Outlier Analysis Second Edition Charu C. Aggarwal IBM T. J. Watson Research Center Yorktown Heights, New York November 25, 2016 PDF Downloadable from http://rd.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-47578-3 ii PDF Downloadable from http://rd.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-47578-3 To my wife, my daughter Sayani, and my late parents Dr. Prem Sarup and Mrs. Pushplata Aggarwal. iii PDF Downloadable from http://rd.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-47578-3 iv PDF Downloadable from http://rd.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-47578-3 Contents 1 An Introduction to Outlier Analysis 1 1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.2 The Data Model is Everything . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1.2.1 Connections with Supervised Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.3 The Basic Outlier Detection Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 1.3.1 Feature Selection in Outlier Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 1.3.2 Extreme-Value Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 1.3.3 Probabilistic and Statistical Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.3.4 Linear Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.3.4.1 Spectral Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 1.3.5 Proximity-Based Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 1.3.6 Information-Theoretic Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 1.3.7 High-Dimensional Outlier Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 1.4 Outlier Ensembles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 1.4.1 Sequential Ensembles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 1.4.2 Independent Ensembles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 1.5 The Basic Data Types for Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 1.5.1 Categorical, Text, and Mixed Attributes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 1.5.2 When the Data Values have Dependencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 1.5.2.1 Times-Series Data and Data Streams . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 1.5.2.2 Discrete Sequences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 1.5.2.3 Spatial Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 1.5.2.4 Network and Graph Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 1.6 Supervised Outlier Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 1.7 Outlier Evaluation Techniques. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 1.7.1 Interpreting the ROC AUC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 1.7.2 Common Mistakes in Benchmarking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 1.8 Conclusions and Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 1.9 Bibliographic Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 1.10 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 v PDF Downloadable from http://rd.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-47578-3 vi CONTENTS 2 Probabilistic Models for Outlier Detection 35 2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 2.2 Statistical Methods for Extreme-Value Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 2.2.1 Probabilistic Tail Inequalities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 2.2.1.1 Sum of Bounded Random Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 2.2.2 Statistical-Tail Confidence Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 2.2.2.1 t-Value Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 2.2.2.2 Sum of Squares of Deviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 2.2.2.3 Visualizing Extreme Values with Box Plots . . . . . . . . . 45 2.3 Extreme-Value Analysis in Multivariate Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 2.3.1 Depth-Based Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 2.3.2 Deviation-Based Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 2.3.3 Angle-Based Outlier Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 2.3.4 Distance Distribution-based Techniques: The Mahalanobis Method . 51 2.3.4.1 Strengths of the Mahalanobis Method . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 2.4 Probabilistic Mixture Modeling for Outlier Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 2.4.1 Relationship with Clustering Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 2.4.2 The Special Case of a Single Mixture Component . . . . . . . . . . . 58 2.4.3 Other Ways of Leveraging the EM Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 2.4.4 An Application of EM for Converting Scores to Probabilities . . . . 59 2.5 Limitations of Probabilistic Modeling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 2.6 Conclusions and Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 2.7 Bibliographic Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 2.8 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 3 Linear Models for Outlier Detection 65 3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 3.2 Linear Regression Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 3.2.1 Modeling with Dependent Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 3.2.1.1 Applications of Dependent Variable Modeling. . . . . . . . 73 3.2.2 Linear Modeling with Mean-Squared Projection Error . . . . . . . . 74 3.3 Principal Component Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 3.3.1 Connections with the Mahalanobis Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 3.3.2 Hard PCA versus Soft PCA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 3.3.3 Sensitivity to Noise. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 3.3.4 Normalization Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 3.3.5 Regularization Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 3.3.6 Applications to Noise Correction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 3.3.7 How Many Eigenvectors? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 3.3.8 Extension to Nonlinear Data Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 3.3.8.1 Choice of Similarity Matrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 3.3.8.2 Practical Issues. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 3.3.8.3 Application to Arbitrary Data Types . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 3.4 One-Class Support Vector Machines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 3.4.1 Solving the Dual Optimization Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 3.4.2 Practical Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 3.4.3 Connections to Support Vector Data Description and Other Kernel Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 3.5 A Matrix Factorization View of Linear Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 PDF Downloadable from http://rd.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-47578-3 CONTENTS vii 3.5.1 Outlier Detection in Incomplete Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 3.5.1.1 Computing the Outlier Scores . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 3.6 Neural Networks: From Linear Models to Deep Learning . . . . . . . . . . . 98 3.6.1 Generalization to Nonlinear Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 3.6.2 Replicator Neural Networks and Deep Autoencoders . . . . . . . . . 102 3.6.3 Practical Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 3.6.4 The Broad Potential of Neural Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 3.7 Limitations of Linear Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 3.8 Conclusions and Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 3.9 Bibliographic Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 3.10 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 4 Proximity-Based Outlier Detection 111 4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 4.2 Clusters and Outliers: The Complementary Relationship . . . . . . . . . . . 112 4.2.1 Extensions to Arbitrarily Shaped Clusters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 4.2.1.1 Application to Arbitrary Data Types . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 4.2.2 Advantages and Disadvantages of Clustering Methods . . . . . . . . 118 4.3 Distance-Based Outlier Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 4.3.1 Scoring Outputs for Distance-Based Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 4.3.2 Binary Outputs for Distance-Based Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 4.3.2.1 Cell-Based Pruning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 4.3.2.2 Sampling-Based Pruning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 4.3.2.3 Index-Based Pruning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 4.3.3 Data-Dependent Similarity Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 4.3.4 ODIN: A Reverse Nearest Neighbor Approach. . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 4.3.5 Intensional Knowledge of Distance-Based Outliers . . . . . . . . . . 130 4.3.6 Discussion of Distance-Based Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 4.4 Density-Based Outliers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 4.4.1 LOF: Local Outlier Factor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 4.4.1.1 Handling Duplicate Points and Stability Issues . . . . . . . 134 4.4.2 LOCI: Local Correlation Integral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 4.4.2.1 LOCI Plot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 4.4.3 Histogram-Based Techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 4.4.4 Kernel Density Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 4.4.4.1 Connection with Harmonic k-Nearest Neighbor Detector . 139 4.4.4.2 Local Variations of Kernel Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 4.4.5 Ensemble-Based Implementations of Histograms and Kernel Methods 140 4.5 Limitations of Proximity-Based Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 4.6 Conclusions and Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 4.7 Bibliographic Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 4.8 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 5 High-Dimensional Outlier Detection 149 5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 5.2 Axis-Parallel Subspaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 5.2.1 Genetic Algorithms for Outlier Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 5.2.1.1 Defining Abnormal Lower-Dimensional Projections . . . . . 153 5.2.1.2 Defining Genetic Operators for Subspace Search . . . . . . 154 PDF Downloadable from http://rd.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-47578-3 viii CONTENTS 5.2.2 Finding Distance-Based Outlying Subspaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 5.2.3 Feature Bagging: A Subspace Sampling Perspective . . . . . . . . . 157 5.2.4 Projected Clustering Ensembles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 5.2.5 Subspace Histograms in Linear Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 5.2.6 Isolation Forests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 5.2.6.1 Further Enhancements for Subspace Selection . . . . . . . 163 5.2.6.2 Early Termination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 5.2.6.3 Relationship to Clustering Ensembles and Histograms . . . 164 5.2.7 Selecting High-Contrast Subspaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 5.2.8 Local Selection of Subspace Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 5.2.9 Distance-Based Reference Sets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169 5.3 Generalized Subspaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 5.3.1 Generalized Projected Clustering Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 5.3.2 Leveraging Instance-Specific Reference Sets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172 5.3.3 Rotated Subspace Sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 5.3.4 Nonlinear Subspaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 5.3.5 Regression Modeling Techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178 5.4 Discussion of Subspace Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178 5.5 Conclusions and Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 5.6 Bibliographic Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 5.7 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 6 Outlier Ensembles 185 6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185 6.2 Categorization and Design of Ensemble Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188 6.2.1 Basic Score Normalization and Combination Methods . . . . . . . . 189 6.3 Theoretical Foundations of Outlier Ensembles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 6.3.1 What is the Expectation Computed Over?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 6.3.2 Relationship of Ensemble Analysis to Bias-Variance Trade-Off. . . . 195 6.4 Variance Reduction Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196 6.4.1 Parametric Ensembles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 6.4.2 Randomized Detector Averaging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 6.4.3 Feature Bagging: An Ensemble-Centric Perspective . . . . . . . . . . 199 6.4.3.1 Connections to Representational Bias . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 6.4.3.2 Weaknesses of Feature Bagging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202 6.4.4 Rotated Bagging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202 6.4.5 Isolation Forests: An Ensemble-Centric View . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 6.4.6 Data-Centric Variance Reduction with Sampling . . . . . . . . . . . 205 6.4.6.1 Bagging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 6.4.6.2 Subsampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206 6.4.6.3 Variable Subsampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207 6.4.6.4 Variable Subsampling with Rotated Bagging (VR) . . . . . 209 6.4.7 Other Variance Reduction Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 6.5 Flying Blind with Bias Reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211 6.5.1 Bias Reduction by Data-Centric Pruning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211 6.5.2 Bias Reduction by Model-Centric Pruning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212 6.5.3 Combining Bias and Variance Reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 6.6 Model Combination for Outlier Ensembles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 6.6.1 Combining Scoring Methods with Ranks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 PDF Downloadable from http://rd.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-47578-3 CONTENTS ix 6.6.2 Combining Bias and Variance Reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 6.7 Conclusions and Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 6.8 Bibliographic Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 6.9 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 7 Supervised Outlier Detection 219 7.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219 7.2 Full Supervision: Rare Class Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 7.2.1 Cost-Sensitive Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 7.2.1.1 MetaCost: A Relabeling Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 7.2.1.2 Weighting Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225 7.2.2 Adaptive Re-sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228 7.2.2.1 Relationship between Weighting and Sampling . . . . . . . 229 7.2.2.2 Synthetic Over-sampling: SMOTE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 7.2.3 Boosting Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230 7.3 Semi-Supervision: Positive and Unlabeled Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 7.4 Semi-Supervision: Partially Observed Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232 7.4.1 One-Class Learning with Anomalous Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . 233 7.4.2 One-Class Learning with Normal Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 7.4.3 Learning with a Subset of Labeled Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 7.5 Unsupervised Feature Engineering in Supervised Methods . . . . . . . . . . 235 7.6 Active Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236 7.7 Supervised Models for Unsupervised Outlier Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . 239 7.7.1 Connections with PCA-Based Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 7.7.2 Group-wise Predictions for High-Dimensional Data . . . . . . . . . . 243 7.7.3 Applicability to Mixed-Attribute Data Sets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244 7.7.4 Incorporating Column-wise Knowledge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244 7.7.5 Other Classification Methods with Synthetic Outliers . . . . . . . . 244 7.8 Conclusions and Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 7.9 Bibliographic Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 7.10 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247 8 Categorical, Text, and Mixed Attribute Data 249 8.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249 8.2 Extending Probabilistic Models to Categorical Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250 8.2.1 Modeling Mixed Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253 8.3 Extending Linear Models to Categorical and Mixed Data . . . . . . . . . . 254 8.3.1 Leveraging Supervised Regression Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254 8.4 Extending Proximity Models to Categorical Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255 8.4.1 Aggregate Statistical Similarity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 8.4.2 Contextual Similarity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 8.4.2.1 Connections to Linear Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258 8.4.3 Issues with Mixed Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259 8.4.4 Density-Based Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259 8.4.5 Clustering Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259 8.5 Outlier Detection in Binary and Transaction Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260 8.5.1 Subspace Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260 8.5.2 Novelties in Temporal Transactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262 8.6 Outlier Detection in Text Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262 PDF Downloadable from http://rd.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-47578-3 x CONTENTS 8.6.1 Probabilistic Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262 8.6.2 Linear Models: Latent Semantic Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264 8.6.2.1 Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (PLSA). . . . . . . 265 8.6.3 Proximity-Based Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268 8.6.3.1 First Story Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269 8.7 Conclusions and Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270 8.8 Bibliographic Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270 8.9 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272 9 Time Series and Streaming Outlier Detection 273 9.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273 9.2 Predictive Outlier Detection in Streaming Time-Series . . . . . . . . . . . . 276 9.2.1 Autoregressive Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 276 9.2.2 Multiple Time Series Regression Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279 9.2.2.1 Direct Generalization of Autoregressive Models . . . . . . . 279 9.2.2.2 Time-Series Selection Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281 9.2.2.3 Principal Component Analysis and Hidden Variable-Based Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282 9.2.3 Relationship between Unsupervised Outlier Detection and Prediction 284 9.2.4 Supervised Point Outlier Detection in Time Series . . . . . . . . . . 284 9.3 Time-Series of Unusual Shapes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286 9.3.1 Transformation to Other Representations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287 9.3.1.1 Numeric Multidimensional Transformations . . . . . . . . . 288 9.3.1.2 Discrete Sequence Transformations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290 9.3.1.3 Leveraging Trajectory Representations of Time Series . . . 291 9.3.2 Distance-Based Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293 9.3.2.1 Single Series versus Multiple Series. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 9.3.3 Probabilistic Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 9.3.4 Linear Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 9.3.4.1 Univariate Series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 9.3.4.2 Multivariate Series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296 9.3.4.3 Incorporating Arbitrary Similarity Functions . . . . . . . . 297 9.3.4.4 Leveraging Kernel Methods with Linear Models . . . . . . 298 9.3.5 Supervised Methods for Finding Unusual Time-Series Shapes . . . . 298 9.4 Multidimensional Streaming Outlier Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 9.4.1 Individual Data Points as Outliers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299 9.4.1.1 Proximity-Based Algorithms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299 9.4.1.2 Probabilistic Algorithms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301 9.4.1.3 High-Dimensional Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301 9.4.2 Aggregate Change Points as Outliers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301 9.4.2.1 Velocity Density Estimation Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302 9.4.2.2 Statistically Significant Changes in Aggregate Distributions 304 9.4.3 Rare and Novel Class Detection in Multidimensional Data Streams . 305 9.4.3.1 Detecting Rare Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305 9.4.3.2 Detecting Novel Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306 9.4.3.3 Detecting Infrequently Recurring Classes . . . . . . . . . . 306 9.5 Conclusions and Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307 9.6 Bibliographic Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307 9.7 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310

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An Introduction to Outlier Analysis. 1. 1. Introduction. 1. 2. The Data Model is Everything. 6. 3. The Basic Outlier Models. 10. 3.1. Extreme Value Analysis. 10. 3.2.
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