An Introduction to Models in the Social Sciences

436 Pages·1993·12.851 MB·English

by  Charles A. Lave

AN INTRODUCTION
TO MODElS IN THE
SOCIAl SCIENCES

AN
INTRODUCI10N
To MODELS
INη哑
SOCIAL SCIENCES
Charles A. Lave
James G. March
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Copyrigbt @ 1993 by
University pr四sofAmerica气 Inc.
47却Bo翻InWay
Lar由缸n，Maryland 2σ706
3 Henrietta Sb回t
London WC2E 8LU England
AII rights res町ved
阶in能din the United States of America
British Ca时ogingin Publi创ionInformation Available
Copyright@ 1975 by
Charles A. Lave and James G. March
Library 01 Congress Catal咂ng-in-PubHcationData
Lave, Charles A.
An introduction to models in the social sciences /
Charles A. Lave, James G. March.
p. cm.
Originally published: New York : Harper & Row, 1975.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Social sciences-Mathematical m创始Is.
1. March，J缸nesG. 11. Title.
[H61.L342 1992] 3∞1'.I'51-dc20 91~855 CIP
ISBN 0-8191-8381-4 (pbk. : alk. paper)
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conteγj ~ts
PREFACE Vl1
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS k
CHAPTER ONE WHAT WE ARE UP TO 1
CHAPTER TWO AN lNTRODUCT10N TO
SPECULATI0N 9
S.l lntroduction 10
2.~ Contact and Frie饵d8hip 10
2.3 Roc阳，Lakes, a侃d，R.仿ers 17
2.3.1 A Modelol the Modeι.ßuüdi'叼 Process 19
2.4 Respo侃Bibüit1lCorrupts 21
2.5 The Case 01 the Dumb Quest切n 25
2.6 The Case 01 the Smo.rt Wo饥en 26
2.7 OnBeco制叼 aSocial Sciet也tiBt 29
2.8 The Politics 01 Population 84
2.9 Three Rules 01 Thumb lor Model B.侃侃侃g 40
CHAPTER THREE THE EVA LUATI0N OF
SPECULATI0NS 51
3.1
lntroduct旬， ，也 52
8.2 Truth 52
3.2.1 Circular ModelB 56
8.2.2 Critical E呻俐侃侃ts 58
3.2.3 The lmportance 01 Bei叼 Wro叼 60
øotIteIltt
tV
8.9 Beouty 61
8.8.1 Si俐plicity 61
8.8.! Fertility 64
8.8.8 S#叩rise 67
8.4 Jωtice 73
8.5 Tke Searck 78
CHAPTER FOUR CHOICE 85
4.1 lntroduction 86
4..! A Model 01 lndivid侃lDec仿旬n Making 89
4.!.1 Probability 90
4.!.! E~cted Value 92
4.!.8 Dec创佣 Treell 94
4.!.4 Ezρected Value and Probability
(R侃， 侃d 11) 102
4.8 Exρlorat俗1&801 Decirion Treell 108
4.8.1 DeciBi佣Maki'饵g Under RiBk 109
4.8.2 Tke Value ollnlormω必侃 113
4.8.8 Tke Value 01 Control 116
4.8.4 Tke Value ollnøurance (Opticnωl) 118
4.4 Maximizati棚， 。'IExpected Utility 123
4.5 Treell Witko创Numberll 126
4.5.1 Traffic Routell aB C加icell 126
4.5.! College aB a Ckoice 128
4.6 Alt61唱at如e DeciBicn也 Rulell (Opt勿， 饵al) 187
CHAPTER FIVE EXCHANGE 157
5.1 lntroductω饨 158
5.2 lnt61唱alE1:cka饵，ge 159
5.2.1 Utility (Agait也) ~O
5.!.2 lnd偌er棚ceCu",ell 162
5.2.8 Consumption POIIllÍbility Line 166
5.!.4 Max伽iza.tio侃。1 Utility 167
5.2.5 Ef!ect 01 Price CIuJi叼ell 168
5.!.6 Ef!ect 01 Budget Ckangell 173
5.2.7 Summa.ry 01 Utility Maximimt仿，也Gra.pkll 178
5.8 E叩lora.t伽， 111 01 lndif!erence Cu"，甜 174
5.8.1 Trade-of!1I 174
5.8.2 Tke Squea.均 Wkeel Tkeory 01 Value 180
5.8.8 Men a.nd Wo棚，也 187
"饵"饵"
v
5.4 A Formal Moàel 01 1:饲te仰ω1 E::ckange 197
5.4.1 How to Draw 1nàiIJerence Cw仰倒 201
5.5 E::ternal E::ckange 208
5.5.1 Tke Eàgewortk Bo:: (Optional) 208
5.5.! SupplyjDema饵à AnalyBis (Opt旬侃al) 209
5.5.9 De俨印刷棚。f Sw.仰lyanàDe制制 Cur附
(Opt'阳al) 229
CHAPTER SIX ADAPTAT10N 247
6.1 1ntroàuct必侃 248
6.2 Tke Bωic Moàel 249
6.8 Tke Aàaptatio饥 Eq侃tioω255
6.8.1 Aàapta胁n Eq'&ωt仿制伽 α T-Maze 258
6.9.2 E::pecteà Probability 268
6.9.8 Tke Meaning 01 Probabil仿制伽A伽，ptati佣
Moàe~ 268
6.9.1,. Tke S'切例如ance 01 a (J;创 b 269
6.4 How tke Moàel WorkB 274
6.4.1 Tke ElJect 01 Re锐'aràSckeàule8 276
6.4.2 Lear时:ng Limit8 (Optionaυ281
6.4.8 E::plorat旬nB 01 T-Maze8 282
6.5 Super8t仿制8 Learn'如，g 294
6.5.1 Benign World8 294
6.5.! Maleψolent Worlds 297
6.5.8 Learn伽，g Li制t8 (Opt阳刚:) 299
6.5.4 E::ploratio饨8 01 Super8titio饵 800
6.6 805
Mutlω1 Learn'伽，g (Optω阳l)
6.6.1 Mat'伽9 807
6.6.2 Hunti饨.g 818
CHAPTER SEVEN DIFFUSION 341
7.1 1ntroàuction 842
7.2 A Set 01 Basic A88W饥ptions 343
7.8 1ntergenerational DilJusion 851
7.4 So饥eMoåe~ 360
7.4.1 Tke 1åea 01 Rate 01 C加饨.ge 361
7.4.2 A Moàel ollnlormatio饵 E::ploBion 864
7.4.8 A Birtk Proce88 witk Limit8 371
7.4.4 A Broaàcast Proce88 875
7.5 Ezplorat仿nB 01 Social DiBease8 378
00ft;曲..t a
ψt
7.5.1 Diff'制仿佛ØB lndiWl伽zlCkoice ønd
Adøptøtio饱 383
7.6 Diff'旧旬饵伽øSocioJ. Structure 385
7.6.1 Tke Ele佛ents01 Sociøl Structure 386
7.6.1 Re1.e11ønt &r仰伊 Model 888
7.6.8 S句HJrøte Group ModeZ 889
7.6.4 Sem伽ermeøble &r侃!pB (0，伽创.) 392
lNDEX 419