P1:FCG/SPH P2:FCG/SPH QC:FCG/SPH T1:SPH fm JWBK496/Leshik February2,2011 19:16 PrinterName:YettoCome P1:FCG/SPH P2:FCG/SPH QC:FCG/SPH T1:SPH fm JWBK496/Leshik February2,2011 19:16 PrinterName:YettoCome AN INTRODUCTION TO ALGORITHMIC TRADING Basic to Advanced Strategies Edward A Leshik Jane Cralle A John Wiley and Sons, Ltd., Publication P1: FCG/SPH P2: FCG/SPH QC: FCG/SPH T1: SPH fm JWBK496/Leshik February 2, 2011 19:16 Printer Name: Yet to Come This edition first published 2011. Copyright (cid:1)C 2011 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Registered office John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, United Kingdom For details of our global editorial offices, for customer services and for information about how to apply for permission to reuse the copyright material in this book please see our website at www.wiley.com. 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This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold on the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in renderingprofessionalservices.Ifprofessionaladviceorotherexpertassistanceisrequired,theservices ofacompetentprofessionalshouldbesought. ForothertitlesintheWileyTradingSeries Please see www.wiley.com/finance AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary ISBN 978-0-470-68954-7(hardback);ISBN 978-0-470-97935-8(ebk); ISBN 978-1-119-97509-0(ebk);ISBN 978-1-119-97510-6(ebk) Typesetin10/12ptTimesbyAptaraInc.,NewDelhi,India PrintedinGreatBritainbyTJInternationalLtd,Padstow,Cornwall P1:FCG/SPH P2:FCG/SPH QC:FCG/SPH T1:SPH fm JWBK496/Leshik February2,2011 19:16 PrinterName:YettoCome Contents Acknowledgments vii MissionStatement viii PARTI INTRODUCTIONTOTRADINGALGORITHMS PrefacetoPartI 3 1 History 7 2 AllAboutTradingAlgorithmsYouEverWanted toKnow... 9 3 AlgosDefinedandExplained 11 4 WhoUsesandProvidesAlgos 13 5 WhyHaveTheyBecomeMainstreamsoQuickly? 17 6 CurrentlyPopularAlgos 19 7 APerspectiveViewFromaTier1Company 25 8 HowtoUseAlgosforIndividualTraders 29 9 HowtoOptimizeIndividualTraderAlgos 33 10 TheFuture–WhereDoWeGofromHere? 37 P1:FCG/SPH P2:FCG/SPH QC:FCG/SPH T1:SPH fm JWBK496/Leshik February2,2011 19:16 PrinterName:YettoCome iv Contents PARTII THELESHIK-CRALLETRADINGMETHODS PrefacetoPartII 41 11 OurNomenclature 49 12 MathToolkit 53 13 StatisticsToolbox 61 14 Data–Symbol,Date,Timestamp,Volume,Price 67 15 ExcelMiniSeminar 69 16 ExcelCharts:HowtoReadThemandHowtoBuildThem 75 17 OurMetrics–Algometrics 81 18 StockPersonalityClusters 85 19 SelectingaCohortofTradingStocks 89 20 StockProfiling 91 21 StylisticPropertiesofEquityMarkets 93 22 Volatility 97 23 Returns–Theory 101 24 BenchmarksandPerformanceMeasures 103 25 OurTradingAlgorithmsDescribed–TheALPHAALGO Strategies 107 1. ALPHA-1(DIFF) 107 1a. TheALPHA-1AlgoExpressedinExcelFunction Language 109 2. ALPHA-2(EMAPLUS)V1AndV2 110 3. ALPHA-3(TheLeshik-CralleOscillator) 112 4. ALPHA-4(HighFrequencyReal-TimeMatrix) 112 5. ALPHA-5(Firedawn) 113 P1:FCG/SPH P2:FCG/SPH QC:FCG/SPH T1:SPH fm JWBK496/Leshik February2,2011 19:16 PrinterName:YettoCome Contents v 6. ALPHA-6(GeneralPawn) 113 7. TheLCAdaptiveCapitalProtectionStop 114 26 ParametersandHowtoSetThem 115 27 TechnicalAnalysis(TA) 117 28 Heuristics,AI,ArtificialNeuralNetworksand OtherAvenuestobeExplored 125 29 HowWeDesignaTradingAlphaAlgo 127 30 FromtheEfficientMarketHypothesistoProspect Theory 133 31 TheRoadtoChaos(orNonlinearScience) 139 32 ComplexityEconomics 143 33 Brokerages 147 34 OrderManagementPlatformsandOrderExecution Systems 149 35 DataFeedVendors,Real-Time,Historical 151 36 Connectivity 153 37 HardwareSpecificationExamples 155 38 BriefPhilosophicalDigression 157 39 InformationSources 159 APPENDICES AppendixA ‘TheList’ofAlgoUsersandProviders 165 AppendixB OurIndustryClassificationSECTORDefinitions 179 P1:FCG/SPH P2:FCG/SPH QC:FCG/SPH T1:SPH fm JWBK496/Leshik February2,2011 19:16 PrinterName:YettoCome vi Contents AppendixC TheStockWatchlist 183 AppendixD StockDetailsSnapshot 185 CDFilesList 243 Bibliography 245 Index 249 P1:FCG/SPH P2:FCG/SPH QC:FCG/SPH T1:SPH fm JWBK496/Leshik February2,2011 19:16 PrinterName:YettoCome Acknowledgments Edward ThanksgotoGerryProsser,RobBruce,IanKaplan,Dr.MivartThomas,Sebastian Thomas,JasonSharland,DanFultzandthelateGillianFerguson.TodearestDiana gothanksforfiftyyearsofenthusiasm,encouragement,wisdomandinsight–truly a‘womanforallseasons’. EDWARDLESHIK London,England Myacknowledgementsfromthewesternworld: Jane Couldnothavedoneitwithoutyoufolks– LisaCralleFoster,J.Richard(Rick)Kremer,FAIA,AlanH.Donhoff,LisaLuckett Cooper, Rose Davis Smith, Helen D. Joseph, Shelly Gerber Tomaszewski, Brad Kremer,JennyScottKremerandthelateJohnEdPearce.ThenthereisMr.Linker, PresidentofLinkerCapitalManagementInc.,anhonortohisfather,thelateSamuel HarryLinker. JANECRALLE Kentucky,USA BothEdwardandJane OursincerethanksgotoAimeeDibbensforherencouragementandenthusiasmin gettingthisbookwritten.SpecialthankstothegreatteamatWiley,PeterBaker,Vivi- enneWickham,CarolineValia-Kollery,FelicityWattsandtheanonymousreviewers whohelpedshapethisbook. OurspecialthanksgotoNickAtarwhoseenthusiasticencouragementandhospitality attheWafflehelpedmakethisbookareality. P1:FCG/SPH P2:FCG/SPH QC:FCG/SPH T1:SPH fm JWBK496/Leshik February2,2011 19:16 PrinterName:YettoCome Mission Statement Thegoalofthisbookisto: 1. Demystifyalgorithmictrading,providesomebackgroundonthestateoftheart, andexplainwhothemajorplayersare. 2. Provide brief descriptions of current algorithmic strategies and their user properties. 3. Providesometemplatesandtoolsfortheindividualtradertobeabletolearna numberofourproprietarystrategiestotakeup-to-datecontroloverhistrading, thusleveltheplayingfieldandatthesametimeprovideaflavorofalgorithmic trading. 4. Outlinethemathandstatisticswehaveusedinthebookwhilekeepingthemath contenttoaminimum. 5. ProvidetherequisiteExcelinformationandexplanationsofformulasandfunc- tionstobeabletohandlethealgorithmsontheCD. 6. Providethereaderwithanoutline‘grid’ofthealgorithmictradingbusinessso thatfurtherknowledgeandexperiencecanbe‘slotted’intothisgrid. 7. Usea‘firstprinciples’approachtothestrategiesforalgorithmictradingtoprovide thenecessarybedrockonwhichtobuildfrombasictoadvancedstrategies. 8. Describe the proprietary ALPHA ALGOS in Part II of the book to provide a solidfoundationforlaterrunningoffullyautomatedsystems. 9. Makethebookasself-containedaspossibletoimproveconvenienceofuseand reducethetimetogetupandrunning. 10. Touch upon relevant disciplines which may be helpful in understanding the underlying principles involved in the strategy of designing and using trading algorithms. 11. ProvideadetailedviewofsomeofourWatchlistofstocks,withdescriptionsof eachcompany’soperations.Provideaframeworkforanalyzingeachcompany’s trading characteristics using our proprietary metrics. It is our belief that an intimateknowledgeofeachstockthatistradedprovidesacompetitiveadvantage to the individual trader enabling a better choice and implementation of algo strategies.
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