an economic analysis of price behaviour of rice in guntur district of andhra pradesh

123 Pages·2016·4.03 MB·English

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF PRICE
BEHAVIOUR OF RICE IN GUNTUR DISTRICT
OF ANDHRA PRADESH

By
GGOOVVAARRDDHHAANNAA RRAAOO.. GG
B.Sc. (Ag.)

THESIS SUBMITTED TO
ACHARYA N.G.RANGA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY
IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS
FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF

MASTER OF SCIENCE IN AGRICULTURE
(AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS)
CHAIRPERSON: Dr. K. S.R.PAUL

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

AGRICULTURAL COLLEGE, BAPATLA – 522 101
ACHARYA N.G. RANGA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY

2012
DECLARATION
I, Mr. G. GOVARDHANA RAO, hereby declare that the thesis entitled “AN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF PRICE BEHAVIOUR OF RICE IN GUNTUR
DISTRICT OF ANDHRA PRADESH” submitted to the Acharya N.G. Ranga
Agricultural University for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN
AGRICULTURE in the major field of Agricultural Economics is the result of the
original research work done by me. It is further declared that the thesis or any part
thereof has not been published earlier in any manner.

Place:
Date : (G.GOVARDHANA RAO)
CERTIFICATE
Mr. G. GOVARDHANA RAO has satisfactorily prosecuted the course
of research and that the thesis entitled “AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF
PRICE BEHAVIOUR OF RICE IN GUNTUR DISTRICT OF ANDHRA
PRADESH” submitted is the result of original research work and of sufficiently
high standard to warrant its presentation to the examination. I also certify that
the thesis or part thereof has not been previously submitted by him for a degree
of any university.

Date : (K. S. R. PAUL)
Place : Assistant Research Officer
Department of Agricultural Economics
Agricultural College, Bapatla
CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the thesis entitled, “AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
OF PRICE BEHAVIOUR OF RICE IN GUNTUR DISTRICT OF
ANDHRA PRADESH” submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for
the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN AGRICULTURE in the major field
of Agricultural Economics of the Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University,
Hyderabad, is a record of the bonafide research work carried out by
Mr G. GOVARDHANA RAO, under my guidance and supervision. The
subject of the thesis has been approved by the Student’s Advisory Committee.
No part of the thesis has been submitted for any other degree or diploma.
The published part has been fully acknowledged. All the assistance and help
received during the course of investigations have been duly acknowledged by
the author of the thesis.

(K. S. R. PAUL)
Chairman of the Advisory Committee

Thesis approved by the Student’s Advisory Committee
Chairman : Dr. K.S.R. PAUL
Assistant Research Officer
Department of Agricultural Economics
Agricultural College, Bapatla.

Member : Dr. D. VISHNU SANKAR RAO
Professor and Head
Department of Agricultural Economics
Agricultural College, Bapatla.

Member : Dr. V. SRINIVASA RAO
Associate Professor and Head
Department of Statistics and Mathematics
Agricultural College, Bapatla.

Date of final viva – voce:
AKNOWLEDGEMENT
An accomplishment of this thesis is the result of benevolence of Almighty, love of
my parents and blessings of my teachers and motivation of my friends.
“Acknowledgement is written at last, placed at first and read the least, but still it
is the only opportunity to thank one and who are responsible in completion of the task in
time during the course of study and research.
I am prevailed to avail this opportunity to express my deep m deep and heartfelt
grateful and veneration to my major advisor and chairman of the advisory committee
Dr.K.S.R.Paul, Assistant Research Officer, Department of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural college, Bapatla for his impeccable and highly informative advice and
guidance and for his incessant encouragement during the course of the study and
esteemed chairman of my advisory committee.
I feel inadequacy of words to express my deep sense of gratitude & profound
indebtedness to Dr.D.Vishnu Sankar Rao, professor and head, Department of
Agriculture Economics, the respected member of my advisory committee of his valuable
advice, thought provoking and inspiring guidance, affectionate encouragement generous
help and co-operation during my course of study. He played a pivotal role in my research
and guided to conduct it systematically, always smoothened many of my hardships &
helped me to surge ahead even at a stumbling blocks.
My diction does not seem to be rich enough to provide suitable words to articulate
my sincere and heartfelt gratitude to Dr. V. Srinivasa Rao, Associate Professor and
Head, Department of Statistics and Mathematics, the distinguished member of my
advisory committee for his scholarly advice, sumptuous guidance, constant
encouragement & wise counseling which aided me in completing this voluminous work.
I sincerely owe my deep sense of gratitude to distinguished faculties of our
department Dr.G. Raghunadha Reddy, Assistant Professor Sri.N.A Chowdary, Retd.
Assistant Professor, Dr. K.N. Ravi Kumar, Associate professor, Dr.Y. Radha, Associate
Professor, Dr. Ch. Srilatha, Assistant professor, for their excellent teaching & co-
operation extended to me during the course of my study.
I offer the humblest mark of respect & love at the lotus feet of my revered mother
Sri Govindamma and Father Sri Simhachalam my grand father Ramula Naidu my uncle
Ramana Rao, Krishna Rao, Srinivasa Rao who always been a light of energy &
enthusiasm. With whose constant ambitious encouragement, support, affection, sacrifice
& blessings, I would not have come up to this stage.
My diction is too poor to translate the gratitude into words the love and affection
showered upon me by my sister Gayathri, Sudha my dear brother Anil, Sami, Ravi, &
my cousin brother Satyannarayana without which it would not have been possible to
reach this stage.
Fruitful results would not have hastened without the moral support of my colleagues
Dayakar, Mayuri, Mrudula, Siva parvathi, Ramesh, Karthik sudha. I wish to
acknowledge for them affection, care encouragement, endurance, help, & love bestowed
upon me throughout the course of my study & research.
Words fail in expressing my affection and gratitude towards my seniors beloved seniors
Sita Rambabu, Cinmayee, Kishore, Praveen, Sravan, Ashok Babar, Sandhya, Bhanu,
Vana Prasad, Darwin, Vijay kumar, Mohan Rao, Prabhu Gowda, Gowtam, Koteswara
Rao, Tirumala Rao and dear juniors Srinivas.S, Farukh, Aditya, Jeevan, Samba,
Srinivas, Gowtham, sandeep, Siva Nageswara Rao, Rajula Naidu, Venkatesh, Omkar,
Danujay, Bapuji, Ramanamma, Gowthami krishna and Lavanya.
It is friends indeed who share our secrets. It is they who provide crutches to the
crumbling house of confidence & for bearance.
It is my pleasure to extend my sincere thanks to my dear friends, Chaitu, Ashwin,
Sravan, Manendra, Gopi, Rushi, Vanoj, Ashok, chakravarthi, Ajay, Amruth, Balaji,
Anand, Naga, Narendra, Neelambar, Uday, Venkatesh, Sandeep, Reddy, Bala krishna,
Madhu, , Basavaraj,Tirupati, Srikanth.
I am very much thankful to record assistants, Smt. Saraswathamma & attenders
Sri. Nagireddy and Smt. Venkateswaramma for their help in the department.
My sincere thanks to Eswar Digitals, Bapatla, for neat and meticulous printing of
thesis in time.
Finally I frankly admit that it is not possible to remember all that faces that stood
behind the façade at this juncture & omission of any names does not mean lack of
gratitudeness.

Date: (Govardhana Rao G)
Place:
LIST OF CONTENTS

Page
Chapter No. Title
No.
I INTRODUCTION
II REVIEW OF LITERATURE
III MATERIAL AND METHODS
IV RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
V SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
LITERATURE CITED
LIST OF TABLES
Table Title Page
No. No.
4.1 Trends in MSP, Cost of Production and FHP and cost of cultivation of rice
in Andhra Pradesh
4.2 Per cent change in MSP, FHP over cost of production and FHP over MSP
of rice in Andhra Pradesh
4.3 Compound Growth Rates in MSP, cost of production, farm harvest price
and cost of cultivation of rice in Andhra Pradesh
4.4 Linear trend equation for annual average wholesale prices of rice
4.4.a Linear trend equation for annual average wholesale prices index of rice
4.5 Long term trends of wholesale price of rice at Andhra Pradesh state level
and Guntur district level
4.5.a Long term trends of wholesale price index of rice at Andhra Pradesh state
level and Guntur District level
4.6 Month wise seasonal indices in wholesale prices of rice in Andhra Pradesh
(19990-91 to 2009-10)
4.7 Month wise seasonal indices in wholesale prices of rice in Guntur district
(19990-91 to 2009-10)
4.8 Cyclical component in annual wholesale prices of Andhra Pradesh
4.9 Cyclical component in annual wholesale prices of Guntur district
4.10 Residual analysis of monthly prices of rice in Andhra Pradesh and Guntur
district
4.11 Forecasted prices and their validation in rice for Andhra Pradesh and
Guntur district
4.12 Per cent change over previous year for volume, value and unit value of rice
exports, India (1990-91 to 2009-10)
4.13 Compound growth rates for volume, value and unit value of rice exports,
India (1990-91 to 2009-10)
4.14 Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC) of rice exports, India
(1990-91 to 2009-10)
4.15 Opinions of the farmers regarding the remunerative prices of paddy
4.16 Opinions of the rice millers regarding remunerative prices of paddy
4.17 Garrett’s ranking of prioritization of factors responsible unviable prices of
rice
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure
Title Page No.
No.
4.1 MSP, FHP, cost of production and cost of cultivation of rice in
Andhra Pradesh
4.2 Trends in profit (cost of production and MSP) of rice in
Andhra Pradesh, 1990-91 to 2009-10
4.3 Trends in profit (cost of production and farm harvest prices) of
rice in Andhra Pradesh, 1990-91 to 2009-10
4.4 Long term linear trend line for rice wholesale price in Andhra
Pradesh
4.5 Long term linear trend line for rice wholesale price in Guntur
district
4.5.a Long term linear trend line for rice wholesale price index in
Andhra Pradesh
Long term linear trend line for rice wholesale price index in
4.5.b
Guntur district
4.6 Month wise seasonal price indices of rice in Andhra Pradesh
(1990-91 to 2009-10)
4.7 Month wise seasonal price indices of rice in Guntur district
(1990-91 to 2009-10)
4.8 Cyclical component wholesale prices of rice of Andhra Pradesh
4.9 Cyclical component in wholesale prices of rice of Guntur district
4.10 NPC of rice (Under exportable hypothesis)
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS USED
% : per cent
AMC : Agricultural Market Committee
ARIMA : Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average
b : Regression Co-efficient
CACP : Commission for Agriculture Costs & Prices
CGR : Compound Growth Rate
CMIE : Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy
CoC : Cost of cultivation
CoP : Cost of production
Cr : Crores
DES : Directorate of Economics and Statistics
df : Degrees of freedom
DGCI&S : Director General of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics
e.g. : For example, for instance
et al. : and others people
etc. : and so on (other things)
FAO : Food and Agriculture Organization
FCI : Food Corporation of India
FHP : Farm harvest price
Fig : Figure
fob : Free on board