an alternative future scenario for agroforestry in corn belt watersheds

42 Pages·2015·2.59 MB·English

by  John Graham

An Alternative Future Scenario for
Agroforestry in Corn Belt Watersheds
John B. Graham
Joan Iverson Nassauer
School and Natural Resources and Environment
University of Michigan
[email protected]
14th North American Agroforestry Conference
Ames, IA
3 June, 2015
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Background: New Forest Farm, WI, photo by J. Graham
I. What are Alternative Future Scenarios
II. Indian Creek Bioenergy Landscapes
III. Agroforestry scenario
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What are Alternative Future Scenarios?
• Set of assumptions
– Policy
– Technology
– Society
• Hypothetical stories about the future
– Plausible
– Internally coherent
– Logically consistent
Nassauer. 2012. Landscape and Urban Planning 106:221-229 3
What are Alternative Future Scenarios?
• Select scenarios to test didactic hypotheses
about the future
– Assumptions
– Variables
Nassauer. 2012. Landscape and Urban Planning 106:221-229 4
What are Alternative Future Scenarios?
• Represented as future landscape patterns (FLPs)
– Each scenario can result in a variety of FLPs
• Illustrated through
– GIS layers
– Photorealistic visualizations
• Assess each FLP in a variety of ways and compare
Nassauer. 2012. Landscape and Urban Planning 106:221-229 5
What are Alternative Future Scenarios?
• Used to support decision-making, strategic
planning, and stakeholder engagement
Photo: J. Graham Photo: J. Graham
Nassauer. 2012. Landscape and Urban Planning 106:221-229 6
Scenarios Landscape Assessment
patterns s
LULC
Status quo
Assessment
1
FLP 1
FLP 2
Assessment
2
Scenario 1
FLP 3
Assessment
FLP 4
3
Scenario 2
FLP 5
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I. What are Alternative Future Scenarios
II. Indian Creek Bioenergy Landscapes
III. Agroforestry scenario
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Indian Creek Bioenergy Landscapes
C. Negri, Argonne National Laboratory
• Exploring opportunities to develop perennial
bioenergy in the American Corn Belt
– Using a 20,000 ha Illinois watershed as a test case
Ssegane and Negri. In review. GCB Bioenergy 9
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