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AN AGENT BASED MODEL OF COMMUNITY AUTHORITY STRUCTURE RESILIENCE by Hugh J ... PDF

223 Pages·2016·2.83 MB·English
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AN AGENT BASED MODEL OF COMMUNITY AUTHORITY STRUCTURE RESILIENCE by Hugh J. McFarlane A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of George Mason University in Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Computational Social Science Committee: _________________________________ Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, Dissertation Director _________________________________ Dr. Andrew Crooks, Committee Member _________________________________ Dr. Agnieszka Paczynska, Committee Member _________________________________ Dr. Kevin Curtin, Department Chair _________________________________ Dr. Donna M. Fox, Associate Dean, Office of Student Affairs & Special Programs, College of Science _________________________________ Dr. Peggy Agouris, Dean, College of Science Date: ___________________________ Spring Semester 2016 George Mason University Fairfax, VA An Agent Based Model of Community Authority Structure Resilience A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University By Hugh J. McFarlane Master of Science George Mason University, 2012 Bachelor of Science University of Maryland, 2001 Bachelor of Science United States Naval Academy, 1991 Director: Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, Professor Department of Computational Social Science Spring Semester 2016 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Copyright 2016 Hugh J. McFarlane All Rights Reserved ii DEDICATION This is dedicated to my patient and loving wife Rachael and my daughter Naia. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my committee, Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, Dr. Andrew Crooks, and Dr. Agnieszka Paczynska for their support and insights. I would like to acknowledge funding received from the National Science Foundation through the CDI program and from the Department of Defense through the Minerva program. I would also like to thank my family, friends, and classmates for the support they provided throughout this process. I could not have done it without you. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables .................................................................................................................... vii List of Figures .................................................................................................................. viii Abstract ............................................................................................................................... x 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Motivation ............................................................................................................... 3 1.1.1. Community Authority Structures .................................................................... 3 1.1.2. Public Policy Challenges ................................................................................ 7 1.1.3. Research Goals .............................................................................................. 10 1.2. Literature Review .................................................................................................. 12 1.2.1. Sociopolitical Systems Theory and Models .................................................. 13 1.2.2. Community Authority Structures .................................................................. 15 1.2.3. Resident –Authority Exchange Dynamics .................................................... 20 1.2.4. Socio-natural Environment ........................................................................... 26 1.2.5. Agent-Based Models ..................................................................................... 28 1.2.6. Review of Literature Gaps ............................................................................ 30 1.3. Research Questions ............................................................................................... 33 1.3.1. Research Question 1 ..................................................................................... 33 1.3.2. Research Question 2 ..................................................................................... 36 1.3.3. Research Question 3 ..................................................................................... 38 1.4. Summary of Methods and Contributions .............................................................. 40 1.5. Summary ............................................................................................................... 42 2. Methods ......................................................................................................................... 44 2.1. Community Adaptation Model Design ................................................................. 44 2.1.1. Model Environment ...................................................................................... 49 2.1.2. Resident-Authority Exchange Process .......................................................... 53 2.2. Implementation in Code ........................................................................................ 62 2.2.1. Hardware and Software Selection ................................................................. 62 2.2.2. Model Parameters ......................................................................................... 63 2.2.3. Model Execution ........................................................................................... 63 2.3. Verification ........................................................................................................... 66 2.4. Validation .............................................................................................................. 67 2.5. Data Collection and Analysis ................................................................................ 69 2.5.1. Structure ........................................................................................................ 70 2.5.2. Adaptation ..................................................................................................... 70 2.5.3. Satisfaction .................................................................................................... 72 2.5.4. Stability ......................................................................................................... 72 v 2.6. Research Questions Experimental Design ............................................................ 73 2.6.1. Research Question 1 ..................................................................................... 73 2.6.2. Research Question 2 ..................................................................................... 87 2.6.3. Research Question 3 ..................................................................................... 89 2.7. Summary ............................................................................................................... 92 3. Results ........................................................................................................................... 93 3.1. Research Question 1 ............................................................................................. 94 3.1.1. Kibera ............................................................................................................ 97 3.1.2. Mushin ........................................................................................................ 101 3.1.3. Manenberg .................................................................................................. 105 3.1.4. Summary of Results and Behavioral Validation Assessment ..................... 109 3.2. Research Question 2 ........................................................................................... 111 3.2.1. Communication ........................................................................................... 111 3.2.2. Spatial Segregation ..................................................................................... 116 3.2.3. Summary of Results .................................................................................... 118 3.3. Research Question 3 ........................................................................................... 119 3.3.1. Constituency Membership Reinforcement ................................................. 119 3.3.2. Access and Corruption ................................................................................ 121 3.3.3. Social Stress and Authority Capacity ......................................................... 123 3.3.4. Summary of Results .................................................................................... 125 4. Discussion ................................................................................................................... 126 4.1. Research Questions ............................................................................................. 127 4.1.1. Research Question 1 ................................................................................... 127 4.1.2. Research Question 2 ................................................................................... 133 4.1.3. Research Question 3 ................................................................................... 138 4.2. Contributions ....................................................................................................... 142 4.2.1. Computational Social Science/Complex Adaptive Systems ....................... 142 4.2.2. Social Exchange Theory ............................................................................. 144 4.2.3. Political Authority ....................................................................................... 147 4.2.4. Public Policy ............................................................................................... 149 4.3. Future Research .................................................................................................. 152 4.4. Summary ............................................................................................................. 158 5. Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 160 Appendix 1 Glossary ....................................................................................................... 165 Appendix 2 Model Parameter Methods .......................................................................... 168 Appendix 3 Research Question 1 (Case Study) Model Parameters ................................ 179 Appendix 4 Research Questions 2 and 3 Model Parameters .......................................... 183 List of References ........................................................................................................... 188 vi LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Comparison of selected community parameters ........................................................... 75 2. Comparison of selected social and authority parameters for community scenarios ..... 95 3. Exchange parameters for community scenarios ........................................................... 96 4. Expected resilience and adaptation responses for community scenarios ...................... 97 5. Summary of results for 10 simulation runs for the Kibera case ................................... 97 6. Summary of results for 10 simulation runs for the Mushin case ................................ 101 7. Summary of results for 10 simulation runs for the Manenberg case .......................... 106 8. Summary of ABM performance for the three case studies ......................................... 110 9. Summary of selected parameters for segregation experiment .................................... 116 10. Summary of selected parameters for membership experiment ................................. 120 11. Summary of selected parameters for access experiment .......................................... 122 12. Summary of selected parameters for capacity experiment ....................................... 123 13. List of ABM parameters ........................................................................................... 168 14. Mushin simulation parameters .................................................................................. 180 15. Manenberg simulation parameters ............................................................................ 181 16. Kibera simulation parameters ................................................................................... 182 17. Research question 2 segregation experiment parameters ......................................... 184 18. Research question 3 membership experiment parameters ........................................ 185 19. Research question 3 access experiment parameters .................................................. 186 20. Research question 3 capacity-stress experiment parameters .................................... 187 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. Systems diagram of the exchange relationship between an authority and society ......... 4 2. Community authority structure phenomena .................................................................... 5 3. Community authority structure resilience and adaptation .............................................. 7 4. Systems model of political behavior ............................................................................. 13 5. Low resolution version of SimPol polity model ........................................................... 14 6. The contentious polity model ........................................................................................ 15 7. Adapted version of the contentious polity model ......................................................... 46 8. Community adaptation model class diagram ................................................................ 47 9. CAM actor exchange model ......................................................................................... 48 10. ABM main simulation loop ........................................................................................ 54 11. Overview of ABM simulation run .............................................................................. 65 12. Screenshot of agent-based model graphical user interface during simulation run ..... 66 13. Location of communities in sub-Saharan Africa for case study ................................. 74 14. The 1992 (top) and 2000 (bottom) simulated (ABM) and observed (OBS) authority structures for the Kibera case study .................................................................................. 99 15. Adaptation plot (Request ratio v. Response ratio) for Group 0 (Luo residents) for a single run of the Kibera scenario .................................................................................... 100 16. Left Group 0 instability and Right satisfaction from 1990-2000 for 10 ABM runs of the Kibera scenario ......................................................................................................... 101 17. The 1995 (top) and 2004 (bottom) simulated (ABM) and observed (OBS) authority structures for the Mushin scenario .................................................................................. 103 18. Adaptation plot (Request ratio v. Response ratio) for 1993 to 2005 for Group 0 (Yoruba residents) for a single run of the Mushin scenario ............................................ 104 19. Left Group 0 instability and Right satisfaction from 1990-2000 for 10 ABM runs of the Mushin scenario ........................................................................................................ 105 20. The 1992 (top) and 2004 (bottom) simulated (ABM) and observed (OBS) authority structures for the Manenberg scenario ............................................................................ 107 21. Adaptation plot (Request ratio v. Response ratio) for Group 0 (all residents) for a single run of the Manenberg scenario ............................................................................. 108 22. Left Group 0 instability and Right satisfaction from 1990-2000 for 10 ABM runs of the Manenberg scenario .................................................................................................. 109 23. Left. Kibera request ratio v. response ratio adaptation plots with (blue) and without (orange) communication for Group 0 with respect to Authority 1. Right. The stability plots with (blue) and without (orange) communication .................................................. 113 viii 24. Left. Mushin adaptation plots with (blue) and without (orange) communication for Group 0 with respect to Authority 1. Right. The stability plots with (blue) and without (orange) communication ................................................................................................. 114 25. Left. Request v. response ratios for Manenberg with (blue) and without (orange) communication for Group 0 with respect to Authority 1. Right. The stability plots with (blue) and without (orange) communication ................................................................... 115 26. Mean request ratio for Group 1 (A1/A0) v. segregation probabilities ranging from 1% to 99% ............................................................................................................................. 117 27. Left. Final value of the request ratio for group 1 v. degree of segregation. Right. The time for system instability to drop below 0.01 v. degree of segregation ........................ 118 28. Left. Request ratios (A1/A0) for Group 1 for inter-event times ranging from 1 to 7 years. Right. Mean request ratio for last 5 years of simulation using 1-year moving average v. membership reinforcement ratio .................................................................... 121 29. Left. Request ratio (A0/A1) for A1 corruption values ranging from 0 to 0.95. Right. Mean request ratio (A0/A1) for last 3 years of simulation run v. A1 corruption values ranging from 0 to 0.95 .................................................................................................... 122 30. Mean log-request ratio (A0/A1) for last 2 years of scenario v. stress level .............. 124 31. Probability of selecting an authority v. number of prior positive interactions when 0 to 3 other residents have a positive experience with that authority for a community with Left 2 authorities and Right 5 authorities ............................................................................... 173 32. Influence of network experiences on selecting an authority v. number of prior positive interactions when 0 to 3 other residents have a positive experience with that authority for a community. Left Two authorities. Right Five authorities ............................................ 174 33. Probability of selecting an event-based strategy v. days from event for selected concern levels .................................................................................................................. 177 34. Probability of Government agent demanding a bribe during an interaction with a resident v. Transparency International score .................................................................. 178 ix

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12. Screenshot of agent-based model graphical user interface during simulation run .. 66. 13. Location of communities in sub-Saharan Africa for case study 74. 14. The 1992 (top) and 2000 (bottom) simulated (ABM) and observed (OBS) authority structures for the Kibera case study .
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