AN AGENT BASED MODEL OF COMMUNITY AUTHORITY STRUCTURE RESILIENCE by Hugh J ...

223 Pages·2016·2.83 MB·English

AN AGENT BASED MODEL OF COMMUNITY AUTHORITY STRUCTURE
RESILIENCE

by

Hugh J. McFarlane
A Dissertation
Submitted to the
Graduate Faculty
of
George Mason University
in Partial Fulfillment of
The Requirements for the Degree
of
Doctor of Philosophy
Computational Social Science

Committee:

_________________________________ Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, Dissertation
Director

_________________________________ Dr. Andrew Crooks, Committee Member

_________________________________ Dr. Agnieszka Paczynska, Committee Member

_________________________________ Dr. Kevin Curtin, Department Chair

_________________________________ Dr. Donna M. Fox, Associate Dean, Office
of Student Affairs & Special Programs,
College of Science

_________________________________ Dr. Peggy Agouris, Dean, College of
Science

Date: ___________________________ Spring Semester 2016
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA
An Agent Based Model of Community Authority Structure Resilience

A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University

By

Hugh J. McFarlane
Master of Science
George Mason University, 2012
Bachelor of Science
University of Maryland, 2001
Bachelor of Science
United States Naval Academy, 1991

Director: Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, Professor
Department of Computational Social Science

Spring Semester 2016
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA
Copyright 2016 Hugh J. McFarlane
All Rights Reserved
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DEDICATION

This is dedicated to my patient and loving wife Rachael and my daughter Naia.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to thank my committee, Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, Dr. Andrew Crooks, and
Dr. Agnieszka Paczynska for their support and insights.

I would like to acknowledge funding received from the National Science Foundation
through the CDI program and from the Department of Defense through the Minerva
program.

I would also like to thank my family, friends, and classmates for the support they
provided throughout this process. I could not have done it without you.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page
List of Tables .................................................................................................................... vii
List of Figures .................................................................................................................. viii
Abstract ............................................................................................................................... x
1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1
1.1. Motivation ............................................................................................................... 3
1.1.1. Community Authority Structures .................................................................... 3
1.1.2. Public Policy Challenges ................................................................................ 7
1.1.3. Research Goals .............................................................................................. 10
1.2. Literature Review .................................................................................................. 12
1.2.1. Sociopolitical Systems Theory and Models .................................................. 13
1.2.2. Community Authority Structures .................................................................. 15
1.2.3. Resident –Authority Exchange Dynamics .................................................... 20
1.2.4. Socio-natural Environment ........................................................................... 26
1.2.5. Agent-Based Models ..................................................................................... 28
1.2.6. Review of Literature Gaps ............................................................................ 30
1.3. Research Questions ............................................................................................... 33
1.3.1. Research Question 1 ..................................................................................... 33
1.3.2. Research Question 2 ..................................................................................... 36
1.3.3. Research Question 3 ..................................................................................... 38
1.4. Summary of Methods and Contributions .............................................................. 40
1.5. Summary ............................................................................................................... 42
2. Methods ......................................................................................................................... 44
2.1. Community Adaptation Model Design ................................................................. 44
2.1.1. Model Environment ...................................................................................... 49
2.1.2. Resident-Authority Exchange Process .......................................................... 53
2.2. Implementation in Code ........................................................................................ 62
2.2.1. Hardware and Software Selection ................................................................. 62
2.2.2. Model Parameters ......................................................................................... 63
2.2.3. Model Execution ........................................................................................... 63
2.3. Verification ........................................................................................................... 66
2.4. Validation .............................................................................................................. 67
2.5. Data Collection and Analysis ................................................................................ 69
2.5.1. Structure ........................................................................................................ 70
2.5.2. Adaptation ..................................................................................................... 70
2.5.3. Satisfaction .................................................................................................... 72
2.5.4. Stability ......................................................................................................... 72
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2.6. Research Questions Experimental Design ............................................................ 73
2.6.1. Research Question 1 ..................................................................................... 73
2.6.2. Research Question 2 ..................................................................................... 87
2.6.3. Research Question 3 ..................................................................................... 89
2.7. Summary ............................................................................................................... 92
3. Results ........................................................................................................................... 93
3.1. Research Question 1 ............................................................................................. 94
3.1.1. Kibera ............................................................................................................ 97
3.1.2. Mushin ........................................................................................................ 101
3.1.3. Manenberg .................................................................................................. 105
3.1.4. Summary of Results and Behavioral Validation Assessment ..................... 109
3.2. Research Question 2 ........................................................................................... 111
3.2.1. Communication ........................................................................................... 111
3.2.2. Spatial Segregation ..................................................................................... 116
3.2.3. Summary of Results .................................................................................... 118
3.3. Research Question 3 ........................................................................................... 119
3.3.1. Constituency Membership Reinforcement ................................................. 119
3.3.2. Access and Corruption ................................................................................ 121
3.3.3. Social Stress and Authority Capacity ......................................................... 123
3.3.4. Summary of Results .................................................................................... 125
4. Discussion ................................................................................................................... 126
4.1. Research Questions ............................................................................................. 127
4.1.1. Research Question 1 ................................................................................... 127
4.1.2. Research Question 2 ................................................................................... 133
4.1.3. Research Question 3 ................................................................................... 138
4.2. Contributions ....................................................................................................... 142
4.2.1. Computational Social Science/Complex Adaptive Systems ....................... 142
4.2.2. Social Exchange Theory ............................................................................. 144
4.2.3. Political Authority ....................................................................................... 147
4.2.4. Public Policy ............................................................................................... 149
4.3. Future Research .................................................................................................. 152
4.4. Summary ............................................................................................................. 158
5. Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 160
Appendix 1 Glossary ....................................................................................................... 165
Appendix 2 Model Parameter Methods .......................................................................... 168
Appendix 3 Research Question 1 (Case Study) Model Parameters ................................ 179
Appendix 4 Research Questions 2 and 3 Model Parameters .......................................... 183
List of References ........................................................................................................... 188
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LIST OF TABLES

Table Page
1. Comparison of selected community parameters ........................................................... 75
2. Comparison of selected social and authority parameters for community scenarios ..... 95
3. Exchange parameters for community scenarios ........................................................... 96
4. Expected resilience and adaptation responses for community scenarios ...................... 97
5. Summary of results for 10 simulation runs for the Kibera case ................................... 97
6. Summary of results for 10 simulation runs for the Mushin case ................................ 101
7. Summary of results for 10 simulation runs for the Manenberg case .......................... 106
8. Summary of ABM performance for the three case studies ......................................... 110
9. Summary of selected parameters for segregation experiment .................................... 116
10. Summary of selected parameters for membership experiment ................................. 120
11. Summary of selected parameters for access experiment .......................................... 122
12. Summary of selected parameters for capacity experiment ....................................... 123
13. List of ABM parameters ........................................................................................... 168
14. Mushin simulation parameters .................................................................................. 180
15. Manenberg simulation parameters ............................................................................ 181
16. Kibera simulation parameters ................................................................................... 182
17. Research question 2 segregation experiment parameters ......................................... 184
18. Research question 3 membership experiment parameters ........................................ 185
19. Research question 3 access experiment parameters .................................................. 186
20. Research question 3 capacity-stress experiment parameters .................................... 187
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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure Page
1. Systems diagram of the exchange relationship between an authority and society ......... 4
2. Community authority structure phenomena .................................................................... 5
3. Community authority structure resilience and adaptation .............................................. 7
4. Systems model of political behavior ............................................................................. 13
5. Low resolution version of SimPol polity model ........................................................... 14
6. The contentious polity model ........................................................................................ 15
7. Adapted version of the contentious polity model ......................................................... 46
8. Community adaptation model class diagram ................................................................ 47
9. CAM actor exchange model ......................................................................................... 48
10. ABM main simulation loop ........................................................................................ 54
11. Overview of ABM simulation run .............................................................................. 65
12. Screenshot of agent-based model graphical user interface during simulation run ..... 66
13. Location of communities in sub-Saharan Africa for case study ................................. 74
14. The 1992 (top) and 2000 (bottom) simulated (ABM) and observed (OBS) authority
structures for the Kibera case study .................................................................................. 99
15. Adaptation plot (Request ratio v. Response ratio) for Group 0 (Luo residents) for a
single run of the Kibera scenario .................................................................................... 100
16. Left Group 0 instability and Right satisfaction from 1990-2000 for 10 ABM runs of
the Kibera scenario ......................................................................................................... 101
17. The 1995 (top) and 2004 (bottom) simulated (ABM) and observed (OBS) authority
structures for the Mushin scenario .................................................................................. 103
18. Adaptation plot (Request ratio v. Response ratio) for 1993 to 2005 for Group 0
(Yoruba residents) for a single run of the Mushin scenario ............................................ 104
19. Left Group 0 instability and Right satisfaction from 1990-2000 for 10 ABM runs of
the Mushin scenario ........................................................................................................ 105
20. The 1992 (top) and 2004 (bottom) simulated (ABM) and observed (OBS) authority
structures for the Manenberg scenario ............................................................................ 107
21. Adaptation plot (Request ratio v. Response ratio) for Group 0 (all residents) for a
single run of the Manenberg scenario ............................................................................. 108
22. Left Group 0 instability and Right satisfaction from 1990-2000 for 10 ABM runs of
the Manenberg scenario .................................................................................................. 109
23. Left. Kibera request ratio v. response ratio adaptation plots with (blue) and without
(orange) communication for Group 0 with respect to Authority 1. Right. The stability
plots with (blue) and without (orange) communication .................................................. 113
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24. Left. Mushin adaptation plots with (blue) and without (orange) communication for
Group 0 with respect to Authority 1. Right. The stability plots with (blue) and without
(orange) communication ................................................................................................. 114
25. Left. Request v. response ratios for Manenberg with (blue) and without (orange)
communication for Group 0 with respect to Authority 1. Right. The stability plots with
(blue) and without (orange) communication ................................................................... 115
26. Mean request ratio for Group 1 (A1/A0) v. segregation probabilities ranging from 1%
to 99% ............................................................................................................................. 117
27. Left. Final value of the request ratio for group 1 v. degree of segregation. Right. The
time for system instability to drop below 0.01 v. degree of segregation ........................ 118
28. Left. Request ratios (A1/A0) for Group 1 for inter-event times ranging from 1 to 7
years. Right. Mean request ratio for last 5 years of simulation using 1-year moving
average v. membership reinforcement ratio .................................................................... 121
29. Left. Request ratio (A0/A1) for A1 corruption values ranging from 0 to 0.95. Right.
Mean request ratio (A0/A1) for last 3 years of simulation run v. A1 corruption values
ranging from 0 to 0.95 .................................................................................................... 122
30. Mean log-request ratio (A0/A1) for last 2 years of scenario v. stress level .............. 124
31. Probability of selecting an authority v. number of prior positive interactions when 0 to
3 other residents have a positive experience with that authority for a community with Left
2 authorities and Right 5 authorities ............................................................................... 173
32. Influence of network experiences on selecting an authority v. number of prior positive
interactions when 0 to 3 other residents have a positive experience with that authority for
a community. Left Two authorities. Right Five authorities ............................................ 174
33. Probability of selecting an event-based strategy v. days from event for selected
concern levels .................................................................................................................. 177
34. Probability of Government agent demanding a bribe during an interaction with a
resident v. Transparency International score .................................................................. 178

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