America's new swing region: changing politics and demographics in the Mountain West PDF
Preview America's new swing region: changing politics and demographics in the Mountain West
T e Advance Praise for America’s New Swing Region i AMERICA’S NEW x e i “Why did a region so clearly identified with Barry Goldwater, Paul Laxalt, and r Orrin Hatch start tilting Democratic in the last decade? Public opinion analyst a SWING REGION Ruy Teixeira and a talented group of demographers, geographers, and political scientists explain why this has happened, and why the trend may continue. If you want to look more deeply into party divisions and population trends affecting the upcoming election, this is the book for you.” Changing Politics and — JOHN B. JUDIS, Senior Editor, The New Republic A M “Ruy Teixeira is one of our premier students of the interaction of demographic Demographics in the trends and electoral politics. America’s New Swing Region is required reading for E political junkies on all points of the political spectrum.” R Mountain West I —MICHAEL BARONE, principal author, The Almanac of American Politics C A “Ruy Teixeira once again demonstrates his prowess for analyzing demographic ’ changes and the political shifts that occur alongside them. For anyone, especially S any political professional, who is thinking seriously about the national electoral N landscape, this book is essential for understanding the dynamic shifts that have E transformed the Mountain West into a critically important swing region.” W —JOEL BENENSON, lead pollster for President Barack Obama S “All of the elements of America’s decades-long demographic transformation— W the Latino population boom, the rise of the college-educated upper middle class, the increasing diversity of the inner suburbs—come into particularly sharp relief I N in the mushrooming states of the Mountain West. What had been a Republican G stronghold is now contested ground, where both major parties will invest enormous sums in 2012 and in many elections to come. America’s New Swing Region is an R indispensable guide to the states that now hold the key to the White House.” E —REIHAN SALAM, editor of The Agenda blog, National Review Online G I O RUY TEIXEIRA is a joint fellow at the Century Foundation and the Center for N American Progress, and he was a visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution 2007–11. His previous books include America’s Forgotten Majority: Why the White Working Class Still Matters, written with Joel Rogers, and The Emerging Democratic Majority, with John Judis. BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS Washington, D.C. www.brookings.edu Ruy Teixeira Cover photo © 123RF Limited Cover by Rich Pottern Design EDITOR America’s New Swing Region 00-2286-1 fm.indd 1 2/3/12 2:56 PM 00-2286-1 fm.indd 2 2/3/12 2:56 PM America’s New Swing Region Changing Politics and Demographics in the Mountain West Ruy Teixeira editor brookings institution press Washington, D.C. 00-2286-1 fm.indd 3 2/3/12 2:56 PM Copyright © 2012 the brookings institution 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20036 www.brookings.edu All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings Institution Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data America’s new swing region : changing politics and demographics in the Mountain West / Ruy Teixeira, editor. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. Summary: “Analyzes effects of the increase in minorities, younger residents, educational levels, and urbanization on the traditionally Republican politics of six states in the Mountain West, comparing changes in voting patterns from 1988 to 2008. Discusses possible ramifications of those changes and the 2010 mid-term elections on the 2012 presidential election”—Provided by publisher. ISBN 978-0-8157-2286-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Party affiliation—Rocky Mountains Region. 2. Demography—Political aspects— Rocky Mountains Region. 3. Population geography—Political aspects—Rocky Mountains Region. 4. Apportionment (Election law)—Rocky Mountains Region. 5. Rocky Mountains Region—Politics and government. I. Teixeira, Ruy A. JK2271.A64 2012 324.978093—dc23 2011052455 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Printed on acid-free paper Typeset in Minion Composition by Cynthia Stock Silver Spring, Maryland Printed by R. R. Donnelley Harrisonburg, Virginia 00-2286-1 fm.indd 4 2/3/12 2:56 PM Contents Foreword vii Robert E. Lang and William E. Brown Jr. Introduction: America’s New Swing Region 1 Ruy Teixeira 1 America’s New Swing Region: The Political Demography and Geography of the Mountain West 11 William H. Frey and Ruy Teixeira 2 Metropolitan Voting Patterns in the Mountain West: The New and Old Political Heartlands 69 Robert E. Lang and Thomas W. Sanchez 3 Hispanics, Race, and the Changing Political Landscape of the United States and the Mountain West 82 William H. Frey 4 The Political Attitudes of the Millennial Generation in the Mountain West 107 Scott Keeter v 00-2286-1 fm.indd 5 2/3/12 2:56 PM vi Contents 5 The Mountain West Today: A Regional Survey 126 Karlyn Bowman and Ruy Teixeira 6 Reapportionment and Redistricting in the Mountain West 153 David F. Damore Contributors 187 Index 189 00-2286-1 fm.indd 6 2/3/12 2:56 PM Foreword B rookings Mountain West is a partnership between the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) and the Brookings Institution, the world’s lead- ing public policy think tank, based in Washington, D.C. Brookings Moun- tain West brings Brookings’s high-quality, independent, and high-impact research to a wide range of issues facing the dynamic Intermountain West region, building on the work of the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program, which focuses on helping metropolitan areas, such as Las Vegas, grow in robust, inclusive, and sustainable ways. Brookings Mountain West faculty and staff, in both Las Vegas and Wash- ington, D.C., conduct research; publish data and analyses; host conferences, meetings, and public lectures; and facilitate collaboration between local, state, and regional leaders and organizations with Brookings experts. Brook- ings scholars are regular and frequent visitors to the UNLV campus and the region, engaging with local scholars and experts on a wide range of public policy issues. As a regional public policy think tank, Brookings Mountain West is com- mitted to improving the quality of life in the Mountain West, which includes Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. These states con- stitute the new swing region in American politics, yet many national observ- ers and commentators have only a superficial understanding of the profound economic, political, and social changes that continue to reshape the region. Prior to the Great Recession, this region was the fastest-growing area of the vii 00-2286-1 fm.indd 7 2/3/12 2:56 PM viii Foreword United States. Conversely, no region of the nation has suffered more eco- nomic distress or lagged behind national recovery indicators longer than these six states. On October 8, 2010, Brookings Mountain West hosted a conference, “The Political Demography and Geography of the Intermountain West,” on the UNLV campus, during which a gathering of notable scholars and public policy researchers presented a series of contemporary research papers on topics critical to this region. The presentations covered such topics as recent demographic trends that have altered the region and its politics; an analy- sis of the metropolitan politics that define the region; and a public opinion survey exploring attitudes on state and national politics, alternative energy, education, deficits, health care, immigration, and other topics essential to understanding the political landscape of this region on the eve of the 2010 elections and in advance of the 2012 presidential race. Following the conference, Brookings Mountain West asked selected con- tributors to revise their observations and findings in light of the 2010 con- gressional elections and to consider the implications for the 2012 presiden- tial election. An additional paper that explores the implications of the 2010 census and multistate congressional redistricting plans is also included in this volume. Brookings Mountain West would like to acknowledge the many people who contributed to the October 8, 2010, conference and to this volume. Individuals worthy of special recognition include Neal Smatresk, president of UNLV; Rebecca Boulton, former Brookings Mountain West business manager; Alexandra Nikolich, current Brookings Mountain West business manager; Lucy Klinkhammer, associate vice president for community rela- tions, the Lincy Institute; Lee Bernick, dean, Greenspun College of Urban Affairs; Laurie Fruth, general manager, UNLV TV; Daniel Grimes, manager, instructional production and engineering, UNLV TV; and our invaluable UNLV student assistants and volunteers. Robert E. Lang, UNLV Director, and William E. Brown Jr., Director of Planning and Communication, Brookings Mountain West November 2011 00-2286-1 fm.indd 8 2/3/12 2:56 PM America’s New Swing Region 00-2286-1 fm.indd 9 2/3/12 2:56 PM
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