America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation

737 Pages·2012·11.03 MB·English

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America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation
Committee on America's Energy Future; National Academy of Sciences;
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978-0-309-11602-2 National Academy of Engineering; National Research Council
650 pages
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation
Committee on America’s Energy Future
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the
National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy
of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the
committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for
appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by the Department of Energy under Grant Number DEFG02-07-
ER-15923 and by BP America, Dow Chemical Company Foundation, Fred Kavli and the Kavli Foun-
dation, GE Energy, General Motors Corporation, Intel Corporation, and the W.M. Keck Foundation.
Support was also provided by the Presidents’ Circle Communications Initiative of the National Acad-
emies and by the National Academy of Sciences through the following endowed funds created to per-
petually support the work of the National Research Council: Thomas Lincoln Casey Fund, Arthur L.
Day Fund, W.K. Kellogg Foundation Fund, George and Cynthia Mitchell Endowment for Sustainability
Science, and Frank Press Fund for Dissemination and Outreach. Any opinions, findings, conclusions,
or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily
reflect the views of the organizations that provided support for the project.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
America’s energy future : technology and transformation / Committee on America’s Energy Future,
National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council of
the National Academies.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-309-11602-2 (pbk.) — ISBN 978-0-309-11603-9 (PDF) 1. Power resources—United
States. 2. Energy policy—United States. 3. Energy conservation. I. National Academy of Engineering.
Committee on America’s Energy Future.
TJ163.25.U6A464 2009
333.790973—dc22
2009029730
Copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox
285, Washington, DC 20055; [phone] or [phone] (in the Washington metropolitan
area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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Printed in the United States of America
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distin-
guished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of
science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter
granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the
federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the
National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National
Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its
administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences
the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering
also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and
research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president
of the National Academy of Engineering.
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the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy mat-
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Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of further-
ing knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general poli-
cies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both
the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services
to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is
administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and
Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation
COMMITTEE ON AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE
HAROLD T. SHAPIRO (Chair), Princeton University
MARK S. WRIGHTON (Vice Chair), Washington University in St. Louis
JOHN F. AHEARNE, Sigma Xi and Duke University
ALLEN J. BARD, University of Texas at Austin
JAN BEYEA, Consulting in the Public Interest
WILLIAM F. BRINKMAN, Princeton University
DOUGLAS M. CHAPIN, MPR Associates
1
STEVEN CHU, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
CHRISTINE A. EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, Texas A&M University
ROBERT W. FRI, Resources for the Future
CHARLES H. GOODMAN, Southern Company (retired)
JOHN B. HEYWOOD, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
LESTER B. LAVE, Carnegie Mellon University
JAMES J. MARKOWSKY, American Electric Power Service Corp. (retired)
RICHARD A. MESERVE, Carnegie Institution for Science
WARREN F. MILLER, JR.,Texas A&M University
FRANKLIN M. (“LYNN”) ORR, JR., Stanford University
LAWRENCE T. PAPAY, PQR LLC
ARISTIDES A.N. PATRINOS, Synthetic Genomics, Inc.
MICHAEL P. RAMAGE, ExxonMobil (retired)
MAXINE L. SAVITZ, Honeywell, Inc. (retired)
ROBERT H. SOCOLOW, Princeton University
JAMES L. SWEENEY, Stanford University
G. DAVID TILMAN, University of Minnesota, St. Paul
C. MICHAEL WALTON, University of Texas at Austin
Consultants
PETER BIERMAYER, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
SAM BORGESON, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
ANJAN BOSE, Washington State University
RICH BROWN, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
STEVE DUNN, Southwest Energy Efficiency Project
1
Resigned from the committee on January 21, 2009.
iv
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation
ADRIAN A. FAY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
SAMUEL FLEMING, Claremont Canyon Consultants
MARK FRANKEL, New Buildings Institute
JIM HARDING, Independent Consultant, Olympia, Washington
JASON HILL, University of Minnesota, St. Paul
NARAIN HINGORANI, Independent Consultant, Los Altos Hills, California
MAURICIO JUSTINIANO, Energetics, Inc.
JON KOOMEY, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
SHELDON KRAMER, Independent Consultant, Grayslake, Illinois
THOMAS KREUTZ, Princeton University
ERIC LARSON, Princeton University
NANCY MARGOLIS, Energetics, Inc.
ALAN MEIER, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
MIKE MESSENGER, Itron, Inc.
STEVE SELKOWITZ, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
CHRISTOPHER WEBER, Carnegie Mellon University
ROBERT WILLIAMS, Princeton University
America’s Energy Future Project Director
PETER D. BLAIR, Executive Director, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
America’s Energy Future Project Manager
JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES)
Project Staff
KEVIN D. CROWLEY (Study Director), Director, Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board (NRSB)
DANA G. CAINES, Financial Manager, BEES
SARAH C. CASE, Program Officer, NRSB
ALAN T. CRANE, Senior Program Officer, BEES
GREG EYRING, Senior Program Officer, Air Force Studies Board
K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer, BEES
LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator, BEES
STEVEN MARCUS, Editorial Consultant
THOMAS R. MENZIES, Senior Program Officer, Transportation Research Board
EVONNE P.Y. TANG, Senior Program Officer, Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources
MADELINE G. WOODRUFF, Senior Program Officer, BEES
E. JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Program Assistant, BEES
v
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation
Foreword
nergy, which has always played a critical role in our country’s national
security, economic prosperity, and environmental quality, has over the last
Etwo years been pushed to the forefront of national attention as a result of
several factors:
v World demand for energy has increased steadily, especially in develop-
ing nations. China, for example, saw an extended period (prior to the
current worldwide economic recession) of double-digit annual increases
in economic growth and energy consumption.
v About 56 percent of the U.S. demand for oil is now met by depending
on imports supplied by foreign sources, up from 40 percent in 1990.
v The long-term reliability of traditional sources of energy, especially oil,
remains uncertain in the face of political instability and limitations on
resources.
v Concerns are mounting about global climate change—a result, in large
measure, of the fossil-fuel combustion that currently provides most of
the world’s energy.
v The volatility of energy prices has been unprecedented, climbing in mid-
2008 to record levels and then dropping precipitously—in only a matter
of months—in late 2008.
v Today, investments in the energy infrastructure and its needed technolo-
gies are modest, many alternative energy sources are receiving insuffi-
cient attention, and the nation’s energy supply and distribution systems
are increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters and acts of terrorism.
vii
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation
viii Foreword
All of these factors are affected to a great degree by the policies of govern-
ment, both here and abroad, but even with the most enlightened policies the over-
all energy enterprise, like a massive ship, will be slow to change course. Its com-
plex mix of scientific, technical, economic, social, and political elements means
that the necessary transformational change in how we generate, supply, distribute,
and use energy will be an immense undertaking, requiring decades to complete.
To stimulate and inform a constructive national dialogue about our energy
future, the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engi-
neering initiated a major study in 2007, “America’s Energy Future: Technology
Opportunities, Risks, and Tradeoffs.” The America’s Energy Future (AEF) project
was initiated in anticipation of major legislative interest in energy policy in the
U.S. Congress and, as the effort proceeded, it was endorsed by Senate Energy and
Natural Resources Committee Chair Jeff Bingaman and former Ranking Member
Pete Domenici.
The AEF project evaluates current contributions and the likely future
impacts, including estimated costs, of existing and new energy technologies. It was
planned to serve as a foundation for subsequent policy studies, at the Academies
and elsewhere, that will focus on energy research and development priorities, stra-
tegic energy technology development, and policy analysis.
The AEF project has produced a series of five reports, including this one,
designed to inform key decisions as the nation begins a comprehensive examina-
tion of energy policy issues this year. Numerous studies conducted by diverse orga-
nizations have benefited the project, but many of those studies disagree about the
potential of specific technologies, particularly those involving alternative sources
of energy such as biomass, renewable resources for generation of electric power,
advanced processes for generation from coal, and nuclear power. A key objec-
tive of the AEF series of reports is thus to help resolve conflicting analyses and to
facilitate the charting of a new direction in the nation’s energy enterprise.
The AEF project, outlined in Appendix C, included a study committee and
three panels that together have produced an extensive analysis of energy technol-
ogy options for consideration in an ongoing national dialogue. A milestone in the
project was the March 2008 “National Academies Summit on America’s Energy
Future” at which principals of related recent studies provided input to the AEF
study committee and helped to inform the panels’ deliberations. A report chroni-
cling the event, The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future:
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation
Foreword ix
Summary of a Meeting (Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press), was
published in October 2008.
The AEF project was generously supported by the W.M. Keck Foundation,
Fred Kavli and the Kavli Foundation, Intel Corporation, Dow Chemical Com-
pany Foundation, General Motors Corporation, GE Energy, BP America, the U.S.
Department of Energy, and our own Academies.
Ralph J. Cicerone, President Charles M. Vest, President
National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering
Chair, National Research Council Vice Chair, National Research Council
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.