Ambivalent Allies? A Study of South Korean Attitudes Toward the US

154 Pages·2004·0.94 MB·English

Ambivalent Allies?
A Study of South Korean
Attitudes Toward the U.S.
ERIC V. LARSON, NORMAN D. LEVIN,
SEONHAE BAIK, BOGDAN SAVYCH
TR-141-SRF
March 2004
Supported by the Smith Richardson Foundation
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
This research in the public interest was supported by the Smith Richardson Foundation and
by the RAND Corporation, using discretionary funds made possible by the generosity of
RAND's donors, the fees earned on client-funded research, and independent research and
development (IR&D) funds provided by the Department of Defense.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication.
ISBN 0-8330-3584-3
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Preface
This is the final report of a RAND Corporation study of South Korean attitudes
toward the United States that aimed to assess three key research questions:
(1) What are the trends in South Koreans’ attitudes toward the United States and
is the conventional wisdom that they recently have deteriorated correct?
(2) What are the sources of South Korean attitudes toward the United States, and
what are their trends over time?
(3) What are the implications of these trends for U.S. policy toward Korea and
larger security interests?
The study constituted an exhaustive effort to compile and analyze public opinion
data on South Korean attitudes toward the United States, and a historical
analysis of selected periods in U.S.-South Korean relations during the past
decade which also sought to identify the sources of anti-U.S. attitudes.
Two working papers provide additional details on the data and analysis. They
are
Seonhae Baik and Eric Larson, “South Korean Attitudes Toward the U.S.: Public
Opinion Data,” forthcoming.
Bogdan Savych and Eric Larson, “South Korean Attitudes Toward the U.S.:
Statistical Modeling Results,” forthcoming.
Interested readers can request these papers via e-mail from Eric Larson at
[email protected].
The study is likely to be of greatest interest to policymakers and scholars
concerned with U.S.-South Korean relations and to those responsible for the
development of public diplomacy programs. The research was sponsored
through a generous grant from the Smith Richardson Foundation and RAND
corporate funds, and was conducted in RAND’s Center for Asia Pacific Policy
(CAPP).
Center for Asia Pacific Policy (CAPP)
This research project was conducted under the auspices of the RAND Center for
Asia-Pacific Policy (CAPP), which aims to improve public policy by providing
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decision makers and the public with rigorous, objective research on critical policy
issues affecting Asia and U.S.-Asia relations. CAPP is part of RAND's National
Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for a
broad range of clients including the U.S. Department of Defense, the intelligence
community, allied foreign governments, and foundations.
This technical report also results from RAND's continuing program of self-
sponsored independent research. Support for such research is provided, in part,
by donors and by the independent research and development provisions of
RAND's contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally
funded research and development centers.
For more information on RAND's Center for Asia Pacific Policy, contact the
Director, Nina Hachigian. She can be reached by e-mail at
[email protected]; by phone at 310-393-0411, extension 6030; or by mail
at RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, California 90407-2138. More
information about RAND is available at www.rand.org.
v
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Contents
Preface ...................................................................................................iii
Figures ...................................................................................................ix
Tables ...................................................................................................xi
Summary..............................................................................................xiii
Acknowledgments.................................................................................xix
Acronyms.............................................................................................xxi
1. INTRODUCTION.............................................................................1
Approach..........................................................................................3
Organization of This Report...............................................................5
2. THE PAST AS PROLOGUE................................................................7
Korea’s Historic Experience...............................................................7
Transition to the 1990s.....................................................................12
The Nuclear Crisis (1992–1996).........................................................14
The Inter-Korean Summit (2000–2002)..............................................27
History, the 1990s, and Factors Driving Korean Attitudes Toward
the U.S......................................................................................38
3. KEY TRENDS IN SOUTH KOREAN ATTITUDES TOWARD
THE UNITED STATES....................................................................42
Attitudes Toward the United States..................................................42
Attitudes Regarding U.S.-South Korean Relations..............................48
Attitudes Regarding Americans.......................................................50
Attitudes Regarding the Alliance and the U.S. Military Presence........51
How Do South Koreans’ Attitudes Toward the U.S. Compare With
Those Toward Other Nations?....................................................59
Chapter Conclusions.......................................................................64
4. THE SOURCES OF SOUTH KOREAN ATTITUDES TOWARD
THE U.S..........................................................................................66
Many Views of the U.S., and Where the Problems Lie........................66
The Dynamics of Past Downturns in Favorable Sentiment..................73
A Model of South Korean Attitudes Toward the U.S..........................77
Predictions of the Model..................................................................88
Individual-Level Lenses...................................................................90
Societal Influences..........................................................................109
Chapter Conclusions......................................................................118
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5. IMPLICATIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS, CONCLUSIONS.............120
Implications for the U.S...................................................................120
Recommendations..........................................................................122
Conclusions...................................................................................123
Bibliography.........................................................................................125
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Figures
2.1 A Model of Influences on South Korean Attitudes Toward
the U.S.......................................................................................39
3.1 Percentage Mentioning U.S. as Most Liked Country......................43
3.2 Percentage Mentioning U.S. as Most Disliked Country..................44
3.3 Trends in Attitudes Toward the U.S., 1988–2003...........................45
3.4 Attitudes Toward the U.S., 1988–2003..........................................47
3.5 Opinion on the State of U.S.-Korean Relations, 1988–2001..............48
3.6 Opinion on the State of U.S.-Korean Relations, 1988–2001..............49
3.7 Attitudes Toward Maintaining the Alliance After Reunification,
1997–2001...................................................................................51
3.8 Importance of American Forces for Protecting Korea’s Security,
1988–2001...................................................................................53
3.9 Importance of American Forces for Protecting Korea’s Security,
1988–2001...................................................................................54
3.10 Attitudes Toward a U.S. Withdrawal, 1988–1996...........................56
3.11 Attitudes Toward a U.S. Withdrawal, 1990–2003...........................56
3.12 Favorable Sentiment Toward the U.S., China, and Japan,
1988–2001...................................................................................63
4.1 Reason for Differences Between the U.S. and South Korea,
August 2002...............................................................................71
4.2 Reasons for Unfavorable View of the United States,
August 2002...............................................................................73
4.3 Model of South Korean Attitudes Toward the United States..........79
4.4 Danger of a North Korean Attack In the Next Three Years,
1988–1999...................................................................................82
4.5 Danger of a North Korean Attack In the Next Three Years,
1988–1999...................................................................................82
4.6 Danger of Attack If Economic Sanctions Are Imposed, 1994–1995..83
4.7 Expectations Regarding Reunification..........................................87
4.8 Percentage Unfavorable by Age in State Department Polling,
1998–2001...................................................................................92
4.9 Views of Threat to South Korea by Age........................................93
4.10 Country Posing the Greatest Threat to Korea, by Age....................94
4.11 Percentage Liking and Disliking the U.S. by Education, July 1991..96
4.12 Countries Identified by University Students as the Greatest
Threat, April 1993.......................................................................97
4.13 Percentage Favorable by Education, 9/93, 9/94, and 2/03.............98
4.14 Percentage Unfavorable by Education, 9/93, 9/94/, and 2/03.......99
4.15 Korean Average Daily Media Consumption, 1996–2000................101
4.16 Credibility of Newspaper and Television Broadcast Media...........101
4.17 Major Korean Newspaper Reporting on the U.S., North Korea,
and Reunification, 1990–2002......................................................113
x
4.18 Selected Topics in Major Korean Newspaper Reporting on the
U.S., 1990–2002..........................................................................114
4.19 Selected Topics in Major Korean Newspaper Reporting on North
Korea, 1990–2002.......................................................................114