Alternatives in Mobilization Ethnicity, Religion, and Political Conflict

315 Pages·2022·33.784 MB·English

by  Johanna Kristin Binnir and Nil Seda Santana (eds)

Alternatives in Mobilization
Ethnicity, Religion, and Political Conflict
JÓHANNA KRISTÍN BIRNIR
UniversityofMaryland
NI˙L SEDA S¸ATANA
UniversityofMaryland
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©JóhannaKristínBirnirandNilSedaS¸atana2022
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Firstpublished2022
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Names:Birnir,JóhannaKristín,1969–author. S¸atana,NilSeda,1976–author.
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Title:Alternativesinmobilization:ethnicity,religion,andpoliticalconflict
JóhannaKristínBirnir,NilSedaS¸atana.
Description:Cambridge;NewYork,NY:CambridgeUniversityPress,2022.
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Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
Identifiers:LCCN2021053371(print) LCCN2021053372(ebook)
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ISBN9781108419840(hardback) ISBN9781108412261(paperback)
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ISBN9781108304306(epub)
Subjects:LCSH:Politicalparticipation–Casestudies. Ethnicity–Politicalaspects–Casestudies.
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Religionandpolitics–Casestudies. Demography–Politicalaspects–Casestudies.
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Politicalgeography–Casestudies. BISAC:POLITICALSCIENCE/General
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Classification:LCCJF799.B572022(print) LCCJF799(ebook) DDC323/.042–dc23/eng/20220206
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Contents
ListofFigures pagexi
ListofTables xiii
Acknowledgments xvii
1Introduction 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 TheLiterature 4
1.2.1 ThePuzzles 6
1.2.2 Scope,Assumptions,andTerms 6
1.3 TheArgument 12
1.3.1 AlternativesinMobilization:DemographyofIdentity
asanExplanatoryVariable 12
1.4 EmpiricalContributions 15
1.4.1 TheNewA-ReligionDataandCaseAnalyses 15
1.5 ArgumentsOutsidetheScopeofThisBook 16
1.5.1 TheOnsetorSuccessofCollectiveMobilization 16
1.5.2 Identity Groups’ Pursuit of Peaceful versus Violent
StrategiesinPoliticalContestation 17
1.5.3 What’sinaName?ReligionorReligion,andReligion
orEthnicity 18
1.5.4 A Panacea for Explaining Ethnic and Religious
Mobilization 20
1.6 OutlineoftheBook 20
2DemographyofIdentityinPoliticaliCcflton 25
2.1 Introduction 25
2.2 Demographics and Political Violence between Religiously
SegmentedGroups 27
vii
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viii Contents
2.2.1 Africa 29
2.2.2 SouthandSouth-eastAsia 33
2.3 TheData:Ethnicity,Religion,andPoliticalConflict 35
2.3.1 ExistingGroup-LevelData 36
2.3.2 TheAMARandA-ReligionData 38
2.4 Demographic Diversity and Over-Representation of Islamic
GroupsinCivilConflict 41
2.5 GroupSize,Ethno-Religion,andPoliticalContestation 48
2.5.1 TheGeoAMARData 48
2.5.2 TheReligionsofEthnicGroups 49
2.6 Conclusion 55
3TheTheory: AlternativesinMobilization 56
3.1 Introduction 56
3.2 Segmented and Shared Identity Mobilization and Relative
GroupSize 57
3.2.1 SegmentedIdentity 57
3.2.2 SharedIdentity 60
3.2.3 TheMinimumWinningCoalition(MWC) 68
3.2.4 TheChallenger’sWinningCoalition(CWC) 72
3.3 Formalization: Segmented and Shared Identity Mobilization
andRelativeGroupSize 74
3.3.1 SegmentedIdentityandPoliticalMobilization 75
3.3.2 SharedIdentityandPoliticalMobilization 81
3.3.3 TestableImplications 84
3.4 InterveningInstitutions 86
3.5 Conclusion 90
4Testingthe Challenger’sWinningCoalitionHypothesison
MobilizationofReligioninEthnicCivilWar 92
4.1 Introduction 92
4.1.1 WhyReligionandWhyNow? 94
4.2 TheData 96
4.2.1 TheUniverseofCases 99
4.2.2 TheUnitofAnalysis:FromOrganizationstoGroups 101
4.2.3 ProbingtheData:A-ReligionandRELAC 104
4.3 Variables 111
4.3.1 Independent Variables: Demography and Shared
Religion 111
4.3.2 DependentVariable:ReligiousIncompatibility 113
4.3.3 ControlVariables 114
4.4 Testing 114
4.4.1 StrategiesinCivilWar 114
4.4.2 RegressionAnalysis 116
4.4.3 RobustnessoftheResults 119
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Contents ix
4.4.4 AlternativeExplanation:TheChallenger’sWinning
CoalitionorSectarianWar? 122
4.5 Conclusion 124
5TheInternalValidityofthe Challenger’sWinningCoalition
Hypothesis 126
5.1 Introduction 126
5.1.1 CasesThatDoNotConform 131
5.2 Exploring the Internal Validity of the Challenger’s Winning
CoalitionHypothesisinCivilWar 132
5.2.1 Islam:Pakistan 132
5.2.2 Christianity:Uganda 136
5.2.3 Hinduism:Nepal 146
5.3 CasesThatDoNotConform:OrDoThey? 155
5.3.1 Turkey 156
5.4 Conclusion 166
6The Challenger’sWinningCoalitioninIndonesia’sElectoralPolitics 167
6.1 Introduction 167
6.2 Indonesia 169
6.3 IdentityinIndonesianPoliticsfromIndependence
throughRe-democratization 170
6.3.1 Fromthe“NewOrder”throughRe-democratization 174
6.4 Indonesia’sInstitutions 177
6.4.1 AdministrativeDivisionsandElectedBodies 178
6.4.2 PartyandElectionLaw 182
6.5 DataonEthnicityandReligion 186
6.6 TheCWCinNational-levelPolitics 187
6.6.1 National-levelDemographics 187
6.6.2 National-levelInstitutions 188
6.7 TheCWCattheProvincialLevel 191
6.7.1 TheProvinces 193
6.7.2 TheCaseofKepri 198
6.7.3 Natives,Migrants,andtheCWCinKepri 204
6.8 CWCatLowerAdministrativeLevels 206
6.8.1 TheCityofMedan,NorthSumatra 206
6.9 Conclusion 211
6.9.1 TheSundanese 211
6.9.2 LessonsLearned 213
7Conclusion 215
7.1 LessonsLearnedandthePathForward 215
7.2 FutureResearch 218
7.2.1 IdentityMobilizationandLevelsofAnalysis 219
7.2.2 GroupSizeandIdentifiability 221
7.2.3 SalienceandPoliticalActivationofIdentity 223
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x Contents
7.2.4 Intersectionality 225
AppendixA AMARGroupsandtheA-ReligionDataSet 227
A.1 SupplementaryTables 227
AppendixB FormalRepresentationoftheTheoryofAlternatives
inMobilization 233
B.1 SegmentedCleavages 234
B.1.1 ExpectedUtility 234
B.2 SharedIdentityandMobilization 235
B.3 ModelVariations 237
AppendixC TransformationofRELACDatatoGroupLeveltoMatch
withtheA-ReligionDataSet 241
C.1 ProbingtheData:FromOrganizationstoGroups 241
C.1.1 CollapsingOrganizations 241
C.1.2 ExpandingGroupObservations 244
Bibliography 257
Index 287
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Figures
2.1 Thechangeovertimeinproportionofacountry’spopulation
belongingtoanyofthethreemostpopulousreligiousfamilies
(Christianity,Islam,andHinduism)intheworld page28
2.2 Thechangeovertimeinproportionofacountry’spopulation
belongingtoanyofthethreemostpopulousreligiousfamilies
(Christianity (white),Islam (black),and Hinduism (gray))
inAfrica 30
2.3 The change over time in absolute numbers of people
belonging to any of the three most populous
religious families (Christianity, Islam, and Hinduism)
inAfrica 31
2.4 The change over time in absolute numbers of people
belonging to any of the three most populous religious
families(Christianity(white),Islam(black),Hinduism(gray))
in South-east Asia (including also India, Pakistan, and
Bangladesh) 34
2.5 The number of socially relevant ethnic groups belonging to
eachofthecodedfamiliesofreligion 42
2.6 ThenumberofsociallyrelevantChristianandMuslimethnic
groupsbelongingtoeachofthecodedsects 43
2.7 GeoAMARpolygonsrepresentingmappablegroupsacrossthe
worlddata 50
2.8 A-ReligionasmappedinGeoAMAR 51
2.9 Ethnicgroupreligionsinsub-SaharanAfrica 51
2.10 EthnicgroupreligionsinAsia 52
2.11 EthnicgroupreligionsinLatinAmerica 52
2.12 Ethno-religiousgroupproportionsofnationalpopulationsin
Africa 53
xi
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