Alternative Energy in the Middle East

206 Pages·2013·0.77 MB·English

by  Gawdat Bahgat (auth.)

Energy, Climate and the Environment Series
Series Editor: David Elliott , Emeritus Professor of Technology,
Open University, UK
Titles include:
Luca Anceschi and Jonathan Symons (editors)
ENERGY SECURITY IN THE ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE
The Asia-Pacific Experience
Philip Andrews-Speed
THE GOVERNANCE OF ENERGY IN CHINA
Implications for Future Sustainability
Gawdat Bahgat
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Ian Bailey and Hugh Compston (editors)
FEELING THE HEAT
The Politics of Climate Policy in Rapidly Industrializing Countries
Mehmet Efe Biresselioglu
EUROPEAN ENERGY SECURITY
Turkey’s Future Role and Impact
David Elliott (editor)
NUCLEAR OR NOT?
Does Nuclear Power Have a Place in a Sustainable Future?
David Elliott ( editor)
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
Opportunities and Limitations
Horace Herring and Steve Sorrell (editors)
ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPTION
The Rebound Effect
Horace Herring (editor)
LIVING IN A LOW-CARBON SOCIETY IN 2050
Matti Kojo and Tapio Litmanen (editors)
THE RENEWAL OF NUCLEAR POWER IN FINLAND
Antonio Marquina (e ditor)
GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Prospects and Policies in Asia and Europe
Catherine Mitchell, Jim Watson and Jessica Whiting ( editors )
NEW CHALLENGES IN ENERGY SECURITY
The UK in a Multipolar World
Catherine Mitchell
THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
Ivan Scrase and Gordon MacKerron (editors)
ENERGY FOR THE FUTURE
A New Agenda
Gill Seyfang
SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPTION, COMMUNITY ACTION AND
THE NEW ECONOMICS
Seeds of Change
Benjamin K. Sovacool
ENERGY & ETHICS
Justice and the Global Energy Challenge
Joseph Szarka
WIND POWER IN EUROPE
Politics, Business and Society
Joseph Szarka, Richard Cowell, Geraint Ellis, Peter A. Strachan and Charles
Warren ( editors )
LEARNING FROM WIND POWER
Governance, Societal and Policy Perspectives on Sustainable Energy
David Toke
ECOLOGICAL MODERNISATION AND RENEWABLE ENERGY
Xu Yi-chong (editor)
NUCLEAR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA
Problems and Prospects
Xu Yi-chong
THE POLITICS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY IN CHINA
Energy, Climate and the Environment
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Alternative Energy in
the Middle East
Gawdat Bahgat
Professor, Near East South Asia, Center for Strategic Studies,
National Defense University, USA
© Gawdat Bahgat 2013
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2013 978-1-137-26457-2
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First published 2013 by
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ISBN 978-1-349-44305-5 ISBN 978-1-137-26458-9 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9781137264589
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Contents
Series Editor’s Preface vi
Preface and Acknowledgements viii
List of Abbreviations x
Maps x iii
1 Introduction 1
2 Morocco 23
3 Egypt 40
4 Israel 60
5 Saudi Arabia 78
6 The United Arab Emirates 93
7 Iran 108
8 Conclusion 127
Appendix 1 40
Notes 1 42
Glossary 1 64
Index 1 83
v
Series Editor’s Preface
Concerns about the potential environmental, social and economic
impacts of climate change have led to a major international debate
over what could and should be done to reduce emissions of greenhouse
gases. There is still a scientific debate over the likely scale of climate
change, and the complex interactions between human activities and
climate systems, but, global average temperatures have risen and the
cause is almost certainly the observed build up of atmospheric green-
house gases.
Whatever we now do, there will have to be a lot of social and eco-
nomic adaptation to climate change – preparing for increased flooding
and other climate-related problems. However, the more fundamental
response is to try to reduce or avoid the human activities that are caus-
ing climate change. That means, primarily, trying to reduce or elimi-
nate emission of greenhouse gasses from the combustion of fossil fuels.
Given that around 80% of the energy used in the world at present
comes from these sources, this will be a major technological, economic
and political undertaking. It will involve reducing demand for energy
(via lifestyle choice changes – and policies enabling such choices to be
made), producing and using whatever energy we still need more effi-
ciently (getting more from less), and supplying the reduced amount of
energy from non-fossil sources (basically switching over to renewables
and/or nuclear power).
Each of these options opens up a range of social, economic and envi-
ronmental issues. Industrial society and modern consumer cultures have
been based on the ever-expanding use of fossil fuels, so the changes
required will inevitably be challenging. Perhaps equally inevitable are
disagreements and conflicts over the merits and demerits of the various
options and in relation to strategies and policies for pursuing them.
These conflicts and associated debates sometimes concern technical
issues, but there are usually also underlying political and ideological
commitments and agendas which shape, or at least colour, the osten-
sibly technical debates. In particular, at times, technical assertions can
be used to buttress specific policy frameworks in ways which subse-
quently prove to be flawed.
The aim of this series is to provide texts which lay out the technical,
environmental and political issues relating to the various proposed
vi
Series Editor’s Preface vii
policies for responding to climate change. The focus is not primarily on
the science of climate change, or on the technological detail, although
there will be accounts of the state of the art, to aid assessment of the
viability of the various options. However, the main focus is the policy
conflicts over which strategy to pursue.
The present volume looks at an area of the world where energy-related
conflicts seem endemic and crucial in geo-political terms – the Middle
East. It is also an area where, in some cases, rapid political change is
underway. That in turn could lead to new pathways being explored in
relation to energy. While oil and gas will continue to dominate, the
region has a very large renewable energy resource, which is now being
explored, and some countries within the region are also looking to
nuclear power as a new energy option. This book looks at motivation
for these changes. They include a growing awareness that demand for
energy will rise as the economies expand and climate change impacts,
with for example the energy needed for air conditioning and desalina-
tion beginning to divert significant proportion of the oil that would
otherwise be exported. In addition, the wider global climate implications
of continued reliance on fossil fuels suggest that diversification would
be wise, with the possibility emerging that the region could become a
major exporter of solar derived energy, whether in the form of electricity
or synfuels made using renewable power sources.
In a region blessed with a very large and reliable solar input, it might
seem odd that there is also an interest in nuclear power, but some see
this as more reliable and as having strategic significance. This book
summarises the state of play by reviewing the overall options, and then
by exploring policy developments and debates in key selected countries.
Clearly there is no shortage of potential for policy debate, even leaving
out the political, economic and resource-base differences between and
amongst the countries in this region.
Preface and Acknowledgements
Energy is the lifeblood of civilization. As both individuals and nation-
states we depend heavily on energy. In almost everything we do, we rely
on one or several sources of energy. Many people and governments used
to take the availability of energy sources for granted. Our deepening
reliance on energy and the rise of a combination of geopolitical, geolog-
ical and environmental challenges have cast doubt on this assumption
that energy will always be there. Little wonder that energy security has
become a major concern to almost all countries in the world.
I have been working on energy for more than two decades. The policy
of energy, at national and international levels, and the growing litera-
ture are immensely stimulating. Like many researchers, most of my work
has focused on fossil fuels, particularly oil and natural gas. However,
these fossil fuels are finite. The argument whether oil production has
peaked is, in my opinion, irrelevant. What is certain is that these fossil
fuels will not last forever. Furthermore, they do contribute to polluting
the environment. Against this background, alternative energy, particu-
larly renewable and nuclear power, has received substantial attention in
recent years.
The Middle East holds massive proven reserves of oil and natural gas
and for decades the region has been a major producer and exporter. In
recent years several Middle Eastern states have sought to reduce their
heavy dependency on these fossil fuels and diversify their energy mix.
Strategic and economic forces are behind this strategy of diversifying
the energy mix. Generally, it will take some time and a lot of money to
develop the necessary human and technological infrastructure to support
nuclear power. On the other hand, utilizing renewable resources such as
hydro, solar and winds require less financial assets. Indeed, according
to a report published by the International Renewable Energy Agency
(IRENA) in November 2012, renewable power generation technolo-
gies are increasingly cost-competitive. Generally, improved technology
and mass production tend to push prices down. On the positive side,
renewable resources have tremendous potential in most Middle Eastern
countries.
In the introductory c hapter, I discuss the main characteristics of
nuclear and renewable energy. The next six chapters examine the energy
outlook in six case studies: Morocco, Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the
viii
Preface and Acknowledgements ix
United Arab Emirates and Iran. The focus is on nuclear and renewable
energy with references to oil and natural gas sectors. Given space and
time limitations, these six countries give good representation of energy
policy in the Middle East. Politically and economically they differ from
each other. Morocco, Egypt and Israel hold smaller hydrocarbon deposits
than Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran. Still, all of them
have recently adopted strategies to diversify their energy mixes. As the
following chapters demonstrate, some of these countries (i.e. Iran and
the UAE) have been more aggressive and more successful than the others.
Together these six case studies highlight the similarities and diversities
in Middle Eastern efforts to utilize alternative energy.
One of the main arguments in this volume is that each source of energy
has its own advantages and disadvantages. The argument is not that one
source should replace another; rather, it is that diversifying the energy
mix would address economic, strategic and environmental concerns.
Another major focus is on conservation. The energy equation has two
sides: supply and demand. Diversifying energy sources is crucial. Efforts
should be made simultaneously to curb consumption. Energy consump-
tion in the Middle East is rising at an alarming rate. Many countries
have already implemented policies to address this challenge.
Writing a book is a huge adventure, with so many ups and downs.
Professional and personal support from family and close friends is
crucial in this undertaking. I would like to thank Helen Hooker, Sandra
Dickson, Beth Sims, Theresa McDevitt, Helen Wedlake and Patrizia
Bassani. Finally, I would like to thank my friends and colleagues at the
Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, the National Defense
University. Despite all the assistance I have received in the course of
writing this book, all errors of facts or judgement are mine alone.