Almond Board of California

23 Pages·2015·24.47 MB·English

AAlmoLnd MBoardO of CNalifoDrnia
ALMANAC
2015
TABLE OF CONTENTS
AT YOUR
The Almond Almanac is prepared
by ABC on a crop-year basis,
FINGERTIPS
spanning August 1 through 2 Strategic Priorities + Supporting Objectives 2015
July 31, and the statistical 3 Almond Board of California Programs + Budget
analysis includes both current 4 California Almond Growers
and comprehensive historical 5 California Almond Industry Overview
information about almond 6 What a Difference a Year Makes
Almond Board of California (ABC) production, acreage and 8 Position Report of California Almonds + World Almond Production
is an agricultural promotion group varieties, as well as shipment 9 Carry-in as a Percentage of Prior Year Shipments
made up of almond growers and and market information. The 10 California Almond Acreage + Farm Value
handlers who work together to statistical content is compiled 11 Top Ten Almond-Producing Varieties, Acreage, Crop Value + Yield per Bearing Acre
educate consumers and to research, using various handler forms 12 California Almond Production by County
innovate and promote California required by the industry’s Federal 13 California Almond Receipts by County + Variety
Almonds. The Almond Almanac Marketing Order. Additional 14 California Almond Crop Estimates vs. Actual Receipts
is ABC’s annual report, which data, including crop estimates 16 World Destinations
highlights the latest statistics, and farm price, are supplied by 17 Domestic + Export Shipments
programs, news and facts about the USDA National Agricultural 18 Top Ten California Crop Acreage + Top Ten U.S. Specialty Crop Exports by Value
California Almonds that power the Statistics Service, Pacific Region 19 Top California Agricultural Exports
industry toward meeting its vision. Field Office (NASS/PRO). 20 California Almond Crop-Size History vs. Inedible Percentage
21 The U.S. Tree Nut Category
22 Inviting Consumers and Customers on Our Sustainability Journey
23 The Future of Almond Farming
24 Creating More Sustainable Almonds through Collaboration
25 Global Trade + Regulatory Affairs
26 Growing Up Sustainable
28 Rooted Deep in Research
29 The Buzz on Bees + Almonds
30 The Bigger Picture: California, Almonds + Water
32 Nutrition Research
34 Almond Quality + Food Safety
35 Global Marketing
41 Engaging with Almond Growers
1
STRATEGIC PRIORITIES + ALMOND BOARD OF CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING OBJECTIVES 2015 PROGRAMS + BUDGET
Invest in programs and research that make almonds a Crop of Choice for California
Almond Board of California (ABC) programs are funded by ABC programs are broken out into key areas and work
a handler assessment placed on each pound of almonds together to educate consumers and to research, innovate
■ Promote the sustainability* of California Almonds
produced. Each year, the ABC Board of Directors, made up and promote almonds in order to help meet the almond
■ Enhance industry-wide quality and food safety
of both almond growers and handlers, approves the budget industry’s vision and mission. These areas are broken down
■ Support basic and applied research to advance production and processing effi ciencies
allocation allotted to each program area. in the Program Budget Allocation chart below and program
■ Demonstrate water-use effi ciency and supply implications
details can be found on the following pages.
■ Enhance leadership position in bee health research, education and outreach
Invest in programs and research that build market demand for almonds, making
Program Budget Allocation 2014/15
them the Nut of Choice
■ Expand the science-based foundation for the health benefi ts and functional attributes of almonds 1% Industry Services 1% Corporate Technology
in dietary patterns and healthy lifestyles 2% Environmental Research 1% Almond Quality + Food Safety (AQFS)
■ Increase consumers’ perceived value of almonds 2% Technical + Regulatory Affairs (TRAC)
■ Implement actions that mitigate trade and regulatory barriers 3% Scientifi c Affairs + Nutrition Research
■ Use market research and performance analysis for strategy development and resource allocation 3% Production Research
■ Establish a proactive public relations stewardship program
Build an Almond Board organization that optimizes its effectiveness in establishing
and executing goals 16% Administration
■ Ensure that Almond Board representatives understand and adhere to fi duciary responsibility standards
■ Implement Board of Directors’ development initiatives
■ Optimize staff and committee structures and processes
■ Provide fact-based information to support industry advocacy efforts
■ Enhance the relationship with and education of the growers and almond community
*Please see page 26 for the Almond Board of California defi nition for sustainability.
71% Global Market Development*
*North America is the largest portion of the Global Market Development budget at nearly 50%. Remaining markets include China, India, South Korea and the
EU3 (United Kingdom, France and Germany).
Committee Structure
VISION MISSION
Scientifi c Board of Finance + Audit
Advisory
To bring great taste, health and To make California Almonds Directors Committee
Panel
vitality to people around the essential to customers and
world through the enjoyment consumers worldwide through
of California Almonds. innovative research,
market development and Almond Quality Production Global Market
Environmental
+ Food Safety Research Development
industry support. Committee
Committee Committee Committee
Industry Nutrition Technical +
Services Research Regulatory
Committee Committee Affairs Committee
2 3
Distribution of Crop by Handler Size 2014/15 101 total handlers
Percentage of crop handled Number of handlers
52
CALIFORNIA
32%
CALIFORNIA
ALMOND GROWERS 26 24% 27%
ALMOND INDUSTRY
16%
14
With its ideal growing conditions, OVERVIEW
5 4
including a mild climate, rich soil
1%
and abundant sunshine, California
Global shipments of California
is the world’s largest producer of less than 1 1–24 25–49 50–74 more than 75
Almonds continued to be strong in million pounds million pounds million pounds million pounds million pounds
almonds, supplying about 80%
crop year 2014/15. In fact, the
of the global demand.
industry shipped 1.81 billion pounds
worldwide, which accounted for
Almond Production by County 2014/15
97% of California’s total production.
U.S. Shipments
• At 35% share of shipments,
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than 1 billion pounds were exported.
They understand that near-record >100 million pounds
production has to be matched by • The top fi ve export destinations 50–100 million pounds
an unprecedented commitment to account for approximately 1–49 million pounds
sustainability, especially as they depend 50% of total exports. Acreage (1 dot = 100 acres)
on natural resources for their livelihood.
The California Almond growing
91% community is driven by family farmers.
03
family farms Historical Crop Size + Shipments vs. Farm Price crop years 1995/96–2014/15
According to the 2012 USDA
Agriculture Census, there are around Crop size in million pounds Shipments in million pounds Farm price $3.21 $3.19
6,800 California Almond farms. Of those, 2,000 $2.81 $3.00
91% are family farms, many of which are
1,750 $2.48
owned and operated by third- and fourth-
9% generation farmers. 1,500 $2.58
other $2.08 $2.21
$2.00
Source: USDA 2012 Census of Agriculture. 1,250 $2.06 $1.99
$1.56
Almond growers and processors 04 1,000 $1.41 $1.57 $1.75 $1.65 $1.79
$1.45
are part of the fabric of their local 750
$1.00
communities, providing direct and $1.11
indirect employment and supporting 500 $0.86 $0.97 $0.91
local schools, businesses and civic
250
and religious organizations.
0 $0.00
95/96 96/9797/98 98/9999/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/0404/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
Sources: Almond Board of California, USDA, NASS/PRO.
4 5
WHAT A DIFFERENCE
A YEAR MAKES
2015 Has Been a Year of Signifi cant Milestones
THE EU
The Future of Almond Farming Sharing Our Sustainability Journey
ABC’s
Several record-breaking achievements were reached, but the industry More than ever, almond growers are proudly engaging the media to expand APPROVED
continued to face many challenges. The progress made last year the dialogue about how almonds are grown. Almond Board of California
demonstrates how effective the industry can be when working worked with the media to correct misinformation about almonds and to THE PRE-EXPORT
CHECKS
toward common goals. highlight the important initiatives that are moving the industry forward.
years
A comprehensive Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study from UC Davis on
PROGRAM
growing California Almonds was published and shows that with the reuse
of coproducts like hulls, shells, prunings and biomass, almond orchards
have the potential to be carbon neutral or even carbon negative if policy C A Alm
in 2015 changes and production advancements work hand in hand.1 or on
f d
3RD s
+
Driving Industry
In a joint effort with the Environmental
Defense Fund and others, ABC is
Improvements
participating in a new USDA-funded
pilot project designed to give
BOTH + Since their release in the fall of
2014, ABC and leading stakeholders
have presented Honey Bee Best
.
A GROUNDWATER RECHARGE PROGRAM Management Practices for California advertising program targeted to
was launched in partnership GROWERS GREATER ACCESS TO Almonds at over 50 meetings with California residents to
with more than 7,000 copies distributed. SPREAD THE FACTS
SUSTAINABLE GREENHOUSE GAS MARKETS
ABC’s Board of Directors
CONSERVATION APPROVED THE
. A new campaign and
ACCELERATED INNOVATION
toolkit were launched
This project is part of the MANAGEMENT (AIM) PROGRAM to aid growers in
which, with research from
USDA CONSERVATION INNOVATION GRANT PROGRAM managing dust
University of California, will laying the groundwork for
THE FUTURE at harvest.
determine the feasibility of to help farmers and ranchers .
using almond acreage to implement practices that will
increase overall ground- make their operations more
OF CALIFORNIA ALMONDS.
water sustainability. resilient to climate change.
California’s Unprecedented Drought • For the fi rst time in history, California implemented
mandatory urban water-use reduction targets.
• In 2015, California entered the fourth year of its historic • On average, California farmers saw a nearly 50% The UC Agricultural Issues 104,000 jobs to California employment opportunity,
drought. California residents are more concerned than decrease in normal surface water availability.2 97,000 of which are in the Central Valley.
ever about the drought. Center published a report on
• All Californians–farmers, local communities, urban areas
$21.5 billion of industry output to California
• In fact, research conducted in 2015 shows almonds as and the environment–continue to be equally impacted by the economic impacts of the
economic activity, including purchases from
the food Californians most associated with the drought groundwater issues.
supporting industries.
and as the fourth most associated food with the U.S. California Almond industry,
• Almond growers continue to make life-changing
general population.
decisions on how to irrigate their orchards as well as
noting that almonds contribute5: $11 billion of value added to the California
their other crops.
Gross State Product.
SURVEYED CONSUMERS REPORT THAT
ALMONDS ARE THE TOP NUT
1. Kendall A. Marvinney E, Brodt S, Zhu W. Life cycle-based assessment of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in almond production. Journal of Industrial
Americans associate with snacking&, Ecology. July 2015. 2. UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences. Economic Analysis for the 2015 Drought for California Agriculture. August 2015. 3. Almond Board
of California, North America Consumer AAU, 2015. 4. Larry Schwankl, et al. Understanding Your Orchard's Water Requirements. University of California, Division of
Agriculture and Natural Resources. Publication 8212. February 2010. 5. University of California Agricultural Issues Center. The Economic Impacts of the California
6 THE #2 SPECIFIC FOOD Almond Industry. December 2014. 7
they associate with nutritious snacking, after apples.3
POSITION REPORT OF CALIFORNIA ALMONDS
in million pounds
Redetermined Total Salable Domestic Export Total Salable
Crop Year Carry-in Reserve
Marketable Supply Shipments Shipments Shipments Carryover
1996/97 489.3 92.8 N/A 582.1 137.5 395.8 533.3 48.3
1997/98 736.8 48.3 N/A 785.1 159.6 452.4 612.1 172.0
1998/99 492.4 172.0 N/A 664.4 167.0 405.5 572.5 91.8
1999/00 795.5 91.8 0.0 887.3 209.6 503.0 712.6 174.7
2000/01 672.4 174.7 0.0 847.1 211.2 528.7 739.8 107.3
2001/02 794.8 107.3 N/A 902.1 239.3 581.8 821.1 80.9
2002/03 1,063.5 80.9 N/A 1,144.4 291.7 690.6 982.4 162.0
2003/04 1,011.1 162.0 N/A 1,173.1 312.2 712.1 1,024.3 148.9
2004/05 972.8 148.9 N/A 1,121.7 331.6 652.5 984.1 137.7
2005/06 888.7 137.7 N/A 1,026.4 303.9 610.4 914.2 112.2
2006/07 1,087.8 112.2 N/A 1,200.0 368.3 697.8 1,066.1 133.9
2007/08 1,358.3 133.9 N/A 1,492.2 394.8 866.4 1,261.2 231.2
2008/09 1,571.9 231.2 N/A 1,803.1 411.0 978.4 1,389.4 413.7
2009/10 1,379.0 413.7 N/A 1,792.7 449.5 1,022.0 1,471.5 321.3
2010/11 1,600.3 321.3 N/A 1,921.6 489.7 1,177.9 1,667.6 254.0
2011/12 1,979.9 254.0 N/A 2,233.9 546.7 1,351.9 1,898.6 335.2
2012/13 1,848.4 335.2 N/A 2,183.6 588.4 1,278.0 1,866.5 317.2
2013/14 1,970.0 317.2 N/A 2,287.2 641.8 1,295.6 1,937.4 350.6
2014/15 1,838.6 350.6 N/A 2,189.2 639.4 1,173.1 1,812.5 376.6
2015/16* 1,764.0 376.6 N/A 2,140.6 597.3 1,212.7 1,810.0 330.6
Source: Almond Board of California. Note: Totals may not add precisely due to rounding. *Estimated.
WORLD ALMOND PRODUCTION
CARRY-IN AS A PERCENTAGE OF PRIOR YEAR SHIPMENTS
2014/15
1% Other 1% Chile 1% Turkey 2005/06–2015/16
7% Australia
8% EU CALIFORNIA’S 30%
CENTRAL VALLEY
22% 21%
18% 17% 18%
is one of the few places in the 18% 15%
world, and the only place in the 14% 12% 13%
U.S., with an ideal almond-growing
climate due to its mild winters and
abundant sunshine.
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16*
Source: Almond Board of California. *Estimated.
82% U.S.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Tree Nuts: World Market and Trade, October 2015.
8
TOP TEN ALMOND-PRODUCING VARIETIES
2004/05 vs. 2014/15 tonnage
2004/05 2014/15
38%
36%
15% 15%
12%
11%
10%
8%
7% 7%
5% 6% 4% 5% 5%
3% 2% 2% 3%
1% 1% 1%
Nonpareil Monterey Butte/Padre Carmel Butte Fritz Padre Aldrich Wood Price Other
Colony
Source: USDA Incoming Receipts from FV193 certifi cates reported to Almond Board of California.
CALIFORNIA ALMOND ACREAGE
2015/16 Forecasted:
crop years 2006–2015
890,000 bearing acres
Bearing acreage
Percentage change from previous year bearing acres
890,000
Non-bearing acreage 10.9% 870,000
820,000 850,000
800,000
750,000 770,000
710,000
640,000
610,000
5.6%
4.9%
3.9% 3.7%
3.4%
CALIFORNIA ALMOND ACREAGE + FARM VALUE 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3%
110,000 120,000 150,000 *
ACREAGE YIELD VALUE IN DOLLARS
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015†
CROP Non- New Average Bearing Acre Production* Farm Farm Value Value per
Bearing Total Source: USDA, NASS/PRO 2014 Acreage Report. *Non-bearing acreage available in April 2016. †Estimate.
YEAR Bearing Plantings Trees/Acre Yield (lbs.) (million lbs.) Price ($1,000) Bearing Acre
2004/05 570,000 70,000 640,000 26,420 103.0 1,760 998.0 $2.21 $2,189,005 $3,840
2005/06 590,000 110,000 700,000 34,033 104.0 1,550 911.7 $2.81 $2,525,909 $4,281
CROP VALUE + YIELD PER BEARING ACRE
2006/07 610,000 145,000 755,000 31,970 105.0 1,840 1,116.7 $2.06 $2,258,790 $3,703
crop years 2005/06–2014/15 DID YOU KNOW:
2007/08 640,000 125,000 765,000 14,381 105.0 2,170 1,383.0 $1.75 $2,401,875 $3,753 $7,511
$6,772
Value per acre
2008/09 710,000 115,000 825,000 21,678 107.0 2,300 1,614.6 $1.45 $2,343,200 $3,300
Yield per acre in pounds $5,874
The almond industry is
2009/10 750,000 90,000 840,000 18,264 108.0 1,880 1,405.9 $1.65 $2,293,500 $3,058 $5,010 especially important to jobs in
$4,281 the Central Valley of California
2010/11 770,000 85,000 855,000 13,362 108.0 2,130 1,628.2 $1.79 $2,903,380 $3,771
$3,703 $3,753 $3,300 $3,771 where almond production
2011/12 800,000 75,000 875,000 14,960 111.0 2,540 2,020.3 $1.99 $4,007,860 $5,010 $3,058 and processing are located.
2,540
2012/13 820,000 110,000 930,000 12,269 112.0 2,310 1,885.0 $2.58 $4,816,860 $5,874 2,170 2,300 2,130 2,310 2,360 2,150 T10h4e, 0al0m0o tnodta iln jdobusst irny tshuep sptoartets
1,840 1,880
of California, about 97,000
2013/14 850,000 120,000 970,000 11,105 112.0 2,360 2,009.7 $3.21 $6,384,690 $7,511 1,550
of which are in the Central
2014/15† 870,000 150,000 1,020,000 19,868 114.0 2,150 1,870.0 $3.19 $5,891,930 $6,772 Valley. These jobs are vital in a
region that has long had high
2015/16† 890,000 ‡ ‡ ‡ 114.0 2,020 1,800.0 ‡ ‡ ‡ unemployment.1
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
Source: USDA, NASS/PRO. Note: Almond Board does not track prices. *Production numbers provided by Almond Board of California. †Estimated as of July 1, 2015. Source: USDA, NASS/PR 2014 Acreage Report. 1. University of California Agricultural Issues Center.
‡Not available at time of publication. The Economic Impacts of the California Almond Industry. December 2014.
10 11
CALIFORNIA ALMOND PRODUCTION BY COUNTY CALIFORNIA ALMOND RECEIPTS BY COUNTY + VARIETY
in million pounds
crop year 2014/15 crop year 2014/15
Central Valley Growing Regions Counties Percentage Nonpareil Monterey Butte/Padre Carmel Butte Fritz All Others All Varieties
Crop Lbs. Lbs. Lbs. Lbs. Lbs. Lbs. Lbs. Lbs.
Northern Central Southern NORTHERN
BUTTE 2.95% 22,417,461 2,745,659 2,506,878 5,312,808 4,148,953 593,887 17,516,351 55,241,997
n
Crop Year Colusa Glenn Butte Yolo Tehama Sutter Solano Stanislaus Merced San Joaqui Kern Fresno Madera Tulare Kings All Others Total CSGOHLLAEUSNSTNAA 403...810241%%% 3297,,0819321,,,849640726 38,,063137,,8301710 11,,549881,,7395490 69,,68210527,,,568025205 162,,95605098,,,884593243 4,671421,,9207170 1141,,09465029,,,351569712 5980,,621390370,,,314642406
SOLANO 0.27% 2,712,207 252,946 186,002 283,033 785,860 6,228 851,617 5,077,893
SUTTER 0.41% 2,155,773 473,887 821,685 678,842 791,398 69,161 2,719,077 7,709,823
2004/05 38.0 37.2 45.0 4.7 6.9 4.6 1.7 163.9 127.6 51.0 215.8 173.5 93.4 20.4 13.0 1.1 997.9
TEHAMA 0.71% 5,802,309 269,771 1,204,257 1,805,276 1,878,270 808 2,328,519 13,289,210
YOLO 0.97% 7,065,318 1,984,544 504,303 1,530,297 2,439,413 449,955 4,173,906 18,147,736
2005/06 40.3 42.6 50.4 5.6 8.4 4.6 1.7 132.2 102.1 41.8 210.1 160.1 82.4 15.9 12.0 1.1 911.4 YUBA 0.07% 649,528 122,712 17,334 90,516 6,256 61,689 358,169 1,306,204
TOTAL 13.36% 107,710,811 17,500,637 8,320,612 26,146,749 29,579,329 6,535,906 54,009,749 249,803,793
2006/07 50.8 38.4 41.8 6.3 7.7 4.9 2.5 163.6 124.6 55.6 247.8 232.7 100.1 21.5 17.7 1.3 1,117.3 SOUTHERN
FRESNO 19.81% 135,065,206 70,231,441 51,067,986 20,081,939 25,010,665 16,570,215 52,434,372 370,461,824
2007/08 66.2 51.8 66.7 10.0 11.4 5.6 4.3 223.3 172.9 75.2 271.0 253.8 125.3 26.7 17.9 0.0 1,383.6 KERN 20.88% 146,116,040 78,025,055 41,023,550 12,267,521 28,728,329 35,468,580 48,685,020 390,314,095
KINGS 1.71% 11,285,544 4,614,823 7,165,423 574,961 996,267 2,177,145 5,100,589 31,914,752
LOS ANGELES 0.00% 0 0 0 10,874 0 0 0 10,874
2008/09 86.0 48.6 56.9 10.4 9.7 5.3 4.1 240.6 187.3 82.1 354.3 322.2 142.7 36.2 23.4 1.0 1,611.0
MADERA 10.85% 75,517,893 41,910,469 27,283,920 14,390,323 7,519,176 10,074,639 26,159,735 202,856,155
TULARE 3.05% 22,411,640 12,318,305 6,454,289 1,434,748 2,729,773 5,543,262 6,104,070 56,996,087
2009/10 75.7 52.7 49.2 12.4 10.9 5.2 3.7 198.8 156.7 70.7 317.9 281.9 112.3 32.6 20.6 1.2 1,402.6 TOTAL 56.30% 390,396,323 207,100,093 132,995,168 48,760,366 64,984,210 69,833,841 138,483,786 1,052,553,787
CENTRAL
2010/11 83.0 55.8 47.1 13.6 11.7 4.9 4.4 202.5 164.2 68.0 403.5 344.2 149.7 42.4 29.9 1.6 1,626.6 CALAVERAS 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 17,840 17,840
CONTRA COSTA 0.00% 0 0 0 0 7,146 0 0 7,146
MARIPOSA 0.01% 64,876 52,640 0 0 0 0 28,989 146,505
2011/12 85.5 59.7 49.0 17.9 11.9 6.9 5.1 269.7 216.7 87.9 472.6 443.0 206.1 44.5 39.0 1.6 2,017.2
MERCED 10.60% 71,621,824 22,187,269 23,100,520 25,289,427 11,641,245 9,464,079 34,940,186 198,244,550
MONTEREY 0.01% 0 46,965 0 189,750 0 0 0 236,715
2012/13 85.1 57.9 50.9 18.1 12.5 7.0 5.4 261.8 201.4 91.5 393.4 413.6 203.5 49.1 30.7 2.1 1,884.1
SAN JOAQUIN 5.04% 38,210,906 4,532,776 13,488,746 16,098,516 3,665,234 5,442,990 12,867,279 94,306,447
STANISLAUS 14.67% 102,214,040 23,825,460 34,871,502 41,473,891 11,611,376 11,478,598 48,879,075 274,353,942
2013/14 103.6 69.7 56.0 22.5 14.7 7.3 6.0 284.9 213.8 95.9 427.2 398.1 216.9 55.8 32.6 1.9 2,006.9 TUOLUMNE 0.00% 20,581 0 0 0 0 0 19,601 40,182
TOTAL 30.34% 212,132,227 50,645,110 71,460,768 83,051,584 26,925,001 26,385,667 96,752,970 567,353,327
2014/15 90.2 58.7 55.2 18.1 13.3 7.7 5.1 274.4 198.2 94.3 390.3 370.5 202.9 57.0 31.9 1.9 1,869.7
GRAND TOTAL 100.00% 710,239,361 275,245,840 212,776,548 157,958,699 121,488,540 102,755,414 289,246,505 1,869,710,907
Source: USDA Form FV193, Report of Inedible Content of Almond Receipts. Source: USDA Form FV193, Report of Inedible Content of Almond Receipts.
56%
Southern Almonds grow on
13
% OF CALIFORNIA’S
14%
Northern IRRIGATED FARMLAND
PRODUCTION
but use OF THE STATE’S AGRICULTURAL WATER1
PERCENTAGE ONLY
or less than 4% of the state’s total managed water
by growing region
California’s total managed water is shared between:
crop year 2014/15 10% URBAN // 40% AGRICULTURE // 50% ENVIRONMENT
30%
Central
1. USDA. 2012 Census of Agriculture. May 2014. California Department of Water Resources. California Water Plan
Update 2013: Volume 1. October 2014. USDA-NASS. 2014 Almond Acreage Report. April 2015.
12 13
California Almond Crop Estimates
vs. Actual Receipts
crop years 2005/06–2014/15, in million pounds
Subjective Objective Actual
forecast forecast production
15 OBJECTIVE FORECAST
CALIFORNIA ALMOND CROP ESTIMATES VS. ACTUAL RECEIPTS 16
in million pounds
Pounds 14
Handler Loss and Redetermined
Crop Year Objective Forecast Rejects in
Receipts Exempt Marketable Weight Receipts 15
1996/97 530.0 507.5 18.2 489.3 13.0
1997/98 680.0 756.5 19.7 736.8 14.3
1998/99 540.0 517.0 24.6 492.4 14.9 13
14
1999/00 830.0 829.9 34.4 795.5 9.3
2000/01 640.0 698.4 26.0 672.4 15.7
2001/02 850.0 824.1 29.3 794.8 16.7
12
2002/03 980.0 1,083.7 20.2 1,063.5 8.2
13
2003/04 1,000.0 1,032.9 21.8 1,011.1 19.8
2004/05 1,080.0 998.0 25.2 972.8 14.5
2005/06 880.0 911.7 23.0 888.7 16.0 11
2006/07 1,050.0 1,116.7 28.9 1,087.8 24.0 12
2007/08 1,330.0 1,383.0 24.7 1,358.3 17.2
2008/09 1,500.0 1,614.6 42.7 1,571.9 13.9
2009/10 1,350.0 1,405.9 26.9 1,379.0 19.6 10
11
2010/11 1,650.0 1,628.2 27.9 1,600.3 18.1
2011/12 1,950.0 2,020.4 40.5 1,979.9 16.1
2012/13 2,100.0 1,884.0 35.6 1,848.4 23.1
09
2013/14 1,850.0 2,009.7 39.0 1,970.7 21.0
10
2014/15 2,100.0 1,867.9 29.3 1,838.6 23.4
2015/16 1,800.0 * 36.0 1,764.0† *
08
Source: Almond Board of California. Objective forecast provided by USDA, NASS/PRO. *Not available at time of publication. †Estimate. 09
California Almond Receipts Variance from Objective Forecast crop years 2005/06–2014/15
07
15% 08
e 8% 9%
c
n 6%
aria 4% 4% 4% 4%
V
e 0%
ntag -1% 06
ce 07
er
P
-10%
-11%
-15%
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
05
06
Source: Almond Board of California. Note: Objective forecast provided by USDA, NASS/PRO.
14 15
WORLD DESTINATIONS
in million pounds
World Region Destination 2014/15 2013/14 2012/13 2011/12 2010/11 2009/10
AMERICAS
North America United States (domestic) 639.40 641.81 588.40 546.71 489.68 449.50
Canada 38.78 40.67 44.22 47.79 45.04 39.42
Mexico 16.60 14.53 14.53 10.55 11.24 7.82
Total North America (exports) 55.48 55.20 58.74 58.34 56.29 47.25
Latin America/Caribbean Argentina 0.97 1.21 0.74 0.25 0.80 0.50
Brazil 2.07 4.03 1.89 0.53 0.72 0.60
Chile 7.65 10.06 7.74 7.86 6.12 6.96
Colombia 1.88 1.80 1.50 0.45 0.63 0.38
Peru 1.06 1.42 0.99 0.73 0.52 0.40
Trinidad 0.51 0.62 0.50 0.47 0.45 0.43
Total Latin America/Caribbean 15.58 21.07 14.44 11.06 10.36 10.07
TOTAL AMERICAS 71.05 76.27 73.18 69.40 66.65 57.32
ASIA-PACIFIC
Northeast Asia China/Hong Kong 128.13 144.82 208.18 236.19 167.55 133.04
Japan 65.87 75.85 65.96 61.87 55.82 52.93
South Korea 53.48 53.50 45.99 44.84 32.07 25.69
Taiwan 10.93 12.69 10.90 11.77 10.49 7.06 DOMESTIC + EXPORT SHIPMENTS 2014/15
Total Northeast Asia 258.41 286.86 331.03 354.66 265.93 218.72
Southeast Asia Indonesia 2.68 2.14 2.33 1.72 1.40 1.38 in million pounds 2010/11–2014/15 Shipments by Region
Malaysia 4.16 5.96 4.95 5.69 5.27 4.18
Singapore 3.65 3.50 2.24 1.99 3.33 2.06
Thailand 4.00 4.15 3.80 3.34 4.08 3.90 Domestic Export
Vietnam 18.74 18.40 15.44 17.53 2.91 4.27 North America
Total Southeast Asia 33.53 34.40 28.99 30.53 17.10 15.97
1,352 1,296
South/Central Asia IKnadziaakhstan 1230..6599 1002..1361 1250..7009 1180..9375 1060..1033 830..0943 1,178 1,278 1,173 38%
Pakistan 2.64 2.62 4.06 5.67 6.43 4.86
Total South/Central Asia 127.01 105.44 130.12 125.10 113.35 89.02
Australasia/Oceania Australia 4.54 4.01 5.81 4.14 2.13 2.47 490 547 588 642 639
New Zealand 4.02 3.34 3.19 2.44 1.73 2.24
Total Australasia/Oceania 8.56 7.34 9.01 6.58 3.86 4.71
TOTAL ASIA-PACIFIC 427.52 434.04 449.14 516.88 400.24 328.43
EUROPE Western Europe
Western Europe Belgium 19.91 20.78 19.21 22.86 17.78 17.37 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
Denmark 8.24 9.06 9.44 9.21 9.47 7.28 26%
Finland 0.72 1.01 1.04 1.33 1.45 2.82
France 20.12 23.03 24.18 28.31 30.32 30.12 Source: Almond Board of California.
Germany 122.15 126.82 121.03 116.52 113.16 109.04
Greece 7.02 8.97 7.87 8.90 8.71 12.01
Ireland 1.77 0.13 0.00 0.27 0.47 0.20
Italy 42.52 53.47 37.22 45.27 43.07 34.64 Asia-Pacific
Netherlands 43.26 45.34 41.90 38.80 41.09 35.70 Export Shipments by Product Type in million pounds 2010/11–2014/15
Norway 5.41 4.48 4.73 5.68 4.20 4.76
Portugal 1.34 2.39 1.73 1.85 2.94 2.51 24%
Spain 153.06 193.40 158.52 156.99 158.34 143.36 In-shell Manufactured Shelled
Sweden 6.24 6.68 7.94 8.44 7.47 6.35
Switzerland 6.82 8.60 6.64 5.99 5.85 5.66
United Kingdom 29.18 27.86 26.41 24.51 25.58 25.66 281 223
Total Western Europe 468.04 532.32 468.34 475.42 470.33 438.23
298 Middle East/Africa
Central/Eastern Europe Bulgaria 2.09 2.94 1.96 2.63 1.17 0.67 219 144 150 219
Croatia 1.59 1.62 1.57 1.99 1.90 2.69 10%
Czech Republic 2.32 2.70 3.50 3.73 4.25 4.78 144
Estonia 1.81 1.41 2.19 0.92 0.56 1.63 124 928 128
Georgia 0.52 0.13 0.00 0.14 0.07 0.00 923
Latvia 1.15 1.95 2.19 1.88 0.88 1.20 834 836 Latin America
Lithuania 3.41 4.15 2.85 1.75 1.80 1.54 826 1%
Poland 1.53 1.89 2.14 2.95 2.65 1.51
Russia 0.93 32.51 45.28 38.57 33.55 22.69
Ukraine 0.63 2.17 3.32 2.16 1.80 1.09
Total Central/Eastern Europe 18.83 55.48 65.63 59.80 51.87 39.90 Central/Eastern Europe
TOTAL EUROPE 486.87 587.80 533.97 535.22 522.20 478.13 1%
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
Middle East Bahrain 0.69 1.03 0.57 1.19 0.84 0.74
Cyprus 0.95 1.29 1.38 1.30 1.14 1.42
Israel 7.14 6.35 2.38 4.63 6.14 6.57 Source: Almond Board of California. Source: Almond Board of California.
Jordan 6.43 8.51 6.62 8.60 10.05 8.80
Kuwait 2.88 2.48 3.31 3.02 2.76 2.37
Lebanon 4.86 5.15 4.55 6.85 8.39 5.59
Qatar 0.62 0.26 39.21 1.00 0.62 0.37
TSuarukdeiy Arabia 3163..5594 5142..7207 399..8211 5199..6330 3180..0894 367..6520 Top Ten Export Destinations in million pounds 2014/15 Top Ten Export Destinations 2014/15
United Arab Emirates 98.07 86.08 81.40 93.92 82.58 67.20 Top ten export markets represent
Total Middle East 171.87 178.16 149.64 199.59 161.67 137.27 65% of total export shipments.
North Africa Algeria 6.02 6.40 11.61 11.97 11.25 6.88
Egypt 3.27 3.98 4.61 9.41 7.12 8.62 639 U.S.
Libya 1.07 1.54 0.79 1.18 1.04 0.13
Tunisia 0.51 1.72 0.00 2.47 3.01 1.24
Total North Africa 10.87 13.82 17.59 25.57 23.01 17.81
Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa 4.77 5.05 4.13 4.76 3.80 2.79
Total Sub-Saharan Africa 4.95 5.48 4.53 5.25 4.13 3.00
TOTAL MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA 187.69 197.45 171.76 230.41 188.81 158.08
TOTAL SHIPMENTS Spain China/
Total Export Shipments 1,173.14 1,295.57 1,278.05 1,351.91 1,177.89 1,021.96 Hong Kong India Germany
Total U.S. Shipments 639.40 641.81 588.40 546.71 489.68 449.50 U.A.E. South
TOTAL GLOBAL SHIPMENTS 1,812.53 1,937.38 1,866.45 1,898.62 1,667.57 1,471.46 153 128 124 122 Japan Korea Netherlands Italy Canada
98
66 53 43 43 39
Source: Almond Board of California. Note: Totals may not add precisely due to rounding. Destinations that shipped more than 500,000 pounds are listed. Source: Almond Board of California, July 2015 Position Report.
16 17