ALM Thesis Proposal

34 Pages·2015·1.4 MB·English

by  Kathleen M. Wood

ALM Thesis Proposal
A model for rapid assessment and mapping of ecological
criteria for informed land use in small island developing states
East Caicos, Turks and Caicos Islands as a Case Study

Kathleen M. Wood
HUID 20840854
Sustainability and Environmental Management
Harvard University Extension School
2/8/2015
Kathleen Wood
HUID 20840854
8 February 2015

Abstract

Small-island developing states (SIDS) contain some of the most biodiverse ecosystems on
earth (Churchyard et al., 2014), yet these countries suffer from pandemic sustainable policy failure
(Mycoo, 2006), leading to significant losses in ecological assets and ecosystem services (Albuquerque
& McElroy, 1992; McElroy, 2003). Many sustainability issues in SIDS arise from poor development
practices due to a lack of economic and human resources to inform sustainable land use planning
(Anonymous, 1994). The proposed thesis will address the sustainability problems experienced by
SIDS by implementing a case study on the island of East Caicos, an uninhabited island in the Turks
and Caicos Islands (TCI) that is currently slated for the development of a transhipping and cruise ship
terminal. East Caicos is characterized by the presence of endemic and endangered species
populations and critical habitats, such as mangrove forests, seagrass beds and coral reefs, yet no
comprehensive environmental evaluation has ever been conducted and no sustainable land use plan
exists for the island. To address these limitations, a multi-criteria evaluation model, that combines
remote sensing, rapid ecological assessment and GIS mapping and data analysis, will be developed.
Procedures for rapid assessment, classification and determination of evaluation criteria will be based
on Nature Conservancy and European Union methods and will be standardized for ease of
implementation and suitability for SIDS. Presence/absence of evaluation criteria, recorded during
field studies, will provide objective data for the development of a GIS dataset and map of ecological
characteristics. Resultant graphic imagery of ecological “hot spots” will be readily understandable to
disparate interest groups and decision-makers.
The developed evaluation model can be applied to any land area and will be designed to
employ readily available open-access software and imagery, thus being particularly relevant to the
needs and resource limitations of SIDS. A final analysis will examine results to make
recommendations for sustainable land use planning and development policy, to identify priority
areas for conservation and to delineate areas for further analysis.
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ALM Thesis Proposal
Kathleen Wood
HUID 20840854
8 February 2015

Table of Contents
Abstract ............................................................................................................................................... 1
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 3
Research Hypothesis and Specific Aims ............................................................................................ 11
Research Methods ............................................................................................................................ 12
Research Limitations ......................................................................................................................... 25
Tentative Schedule ............................................................................................................................ 26
Working Bibliography and References .............................................................................................. 26
Appendix I – East Caicos species of interest and known habitats .................................................... 30

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ALM Thesis Proposal
Kathleen Wood
HUID 20840854
8 February 2015

A Model for Rapid Assessment and Mapping of
Ecological Criteria for Informed Land Use in
Small Island Developing States
East Caicos, Turks and Caicos Islands as a Case Study

"There are some things that sometimes we may have to sacrifice. It [East Caicos] is an area we can
use to boost our economy, to boost our development” - Premier of the Turks and Caicos Islands
Doctor Honourable Rufus Ewing, as quoted in the BBC Radio Series ‘Costing the Earth’ (Cross, 2014).
Introduction

Significance of the Research Problem

Small-island developing states (SIDS) struggle to foster economic development while
simultaneously sustainably managing ecological assets. SIDS share many commonalities, including
vulnerability to natural disasters, small economic and natural resource bases, limited land areas and
scarce access to expertise to inform sustainable development decisions (Albuquerque, McElroy, &
McElroy, 1992; Anonymous, 1994; Beukering, Brander, Tomkins, & McKenzie, 2007; Kaffashi &
Yavari, 2011). SIDS are also typically areas of high biodiversity. For example, the United Kingdom’s
Overseas Territories (UKOTs), comprising 14 SIDS, contain an estimated 94 percent of the unique or
endemic British species (Churchyard et al., 2014). The Caribbean region has been repeatedly cited as
a biodiversity hotspot, defined as being an area with a high proportion of endemism and at risk
(Myers, Mittermeier, Mittermeier, da Fonseca, & Kent, 2000). Because of their ecological values,
great gains can be made by addressing the conservation vulnerabilities of SIDS. An easy-to-
implement model, which uses rapid field assessment and GIS technology to graphically illustrate
ecological assets, would assist SIDS in fostering sustainable use of ecological assets, based on
informed land use.
The proposed research seeks to develop support for solutions to the sustainability problems
associated with SIDS and will develop a decision tool to address the conservation needs of SIDS. A
multi-criteria evaluation model will be designed to provide a graphic illustration of ecological assets
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ALM Thesis Proposal
Kathleen Wood
HUID 20840854
8 February 2015

and inform sustainable land use. A case study to test the model will be implemented at East Caicos
in the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Background

Sustainable Development in SIDS
In the time period following World War II, at least 80 SIDS achieved political autonomy.
Traditionally characterized by subsistence agriculture and fisheries, many tropical islands have
transitioned to economies based on tourism and government employment. With few viable
alternatives, tourism development has allowed many SIDS to realize sustained economic growth by
banking on the relatively intact ecosystems and cultures that have been preserved by previous
subsistence lifestyles. While tourism has been associated with environmental impact, social
problems and boom-bust economic cycles, the potential for sustainability in this industry remains
feasible when coupled with appropriate and informed development planning (Albuquerque &
McElroy, 1992).
In 1994, the Convention on Sustainable Development in Small Island Developing States
recognized the needs of SIDS for sustainable planning initiatives, with a focus on the development of
human resources and sustainable land use management (Anonymous, 1994); however, in the past
20 years, little progress has been made in this regard. With few other natural resources to exploit,
tourism development practices have resulted in substantial degradation of environmental assets. In
2006, an analysis of tourism development in the Caribbean concluded that while the Caribbean is
the most tourism-dependent region of the world, with tourism accounting for as much as 70 percent
of GDP in many Caribbean countries, the region suffers from pandemic “sustainable tourism policy
failure” (Mycoo, 2006, p. 506). In particular, the study cited failures of public planning policy and,
where appropriate policy exists, inadequate implementation. A 2003 study reviewed the impact of
tourism development on 51 islands and found that the vast majority of tourism development was
unplanned and intrusive and had resulted in deforestation, erosion, pollution and reef damage. In
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ALM Thesis Proposal
Kathleen Wood
HUID 20840854
8 February 2015

2003, at least 30 percent of Caribbean coral reefs were at high risk from impacts due to cruise ship
development and pollutants (McElroy, 2003).
Many of the conservation losses in SIDS result from a lack of Informed land use planning,
due to the fact that countries lack the human and economic resources to conduct the necessary
research required to develop and implement such policies. Ideally, land use management would be
based on a model of sustainable use and conservation of important ecological and cultural assets,
including biodiversity, ecosystem services, cultural and traditional use and other important aspects.
Traditionally, however, data to identify and quantify the above variables has been costly to
accumulate and when it exists, difficult to access and use by decision-makers. Such a model has been
devised by the Nature Conservancy (TNC), which has developed a seven-step process for
conservation planning that seeks to establish a standardized method for ecosystem evaluation and
conservation planning (C. Groves et al., 2000). The TNC steps are:
1. To identify conservation targets – including communities and ecosystems, abiotic and
species targets,
2. To collect information and identify information gaps – via review of information sources,
rapid ecological assessment, biological inventories and expert input,
3. To establish conservation goals – Including representativeness and quality, distribution of
targets and establishment of realistic goals,
4. To assess existing conservation areas – via gap analysis,
5. To evaluate ability of conservation targets to persist – using size, condition and landscape
contexts and GIS-based suitability indices,
6. To assemble a portfolio of conservation areas – Using site selection and algorithms as a tool
and designing networks of conservation areas using biogeographic principles, and
7. To identify priority conservation areas – Using criteria of existing protection, conservation
value, threat, feasibility and leverage (C. R. Groves et al., 2002).

The TNC steps provide a useful framework for targeted goals; however, simplified and inexpensive
methods will be required if SIDS are to be able to implement them.

GIS and Environmental Assessment in SIDS
Global information system (GIS) technology has revolutionized environmental survey and
evaluation processes (Almeida et al., 2014; Joerin, Thériault, & Musy, 2001); however, the use of GIS
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Kathleen Wood
HUID 20840854
8 February 2015

modeling in environmental applications can be costly and requires a level of expertise that is often
not available to SIDS. Consequently, GIS environmental research has had limited application in SIDS.
Where it has been implemented, results are often incomplete and/or unusable by decision makers.
For example, a 2014 habitat mapping of Anguilla was conducted by a private company,
Environmental Systems Inc, and supported by the U.K. government and the Universities of
Newcastle and Aberystwyth. The project mapped habitats and ecosystem services, relying heavily on
remote sensing, with a technology known as Earth Observation. Ground-truthing was limited and
resulted in a highly generalized assessment. The work was also facilitated by the use of costly
WorldView-2 satellite imagery (Medcalf, Bell, Cameron, & Pike, 2014). Given the cost constraints and
expertise involved with the assessment, such a method difficult to reproduce within the budgetary
and human resource constraints of other United Kingdom Overseas Territories (UKOTs), without
outside funding and assistance. Furthermore, the project was targeted towards valuation of
environmental services only and did not take into account ecological criteria, such as endangered
species populations, endemic species, critical habitats or other conservation values. Nevertheless,
the Anguilla project provided valuable local training, and the evaluation model developed provides
an effective framework upon which to build other, less-resource-intensive methods.
The proposed research will address the above limitations by developing an easy-to-use and
inexpensive model that will incorporate a standardized method for rapid field assessment of
terrestrial, wetland and marine habitats. Data gleaned will be used to develop a GIS digital database
that records, maps and highlights ecological assets in relation to the subject landscape. Open-access
GIS software (QGIS) and imagery (Google Earth and Landsat) will enhance accessibility by resource-
limited users. The end product will be a GIS dataset that can be incorporated into national
databases. Such a dataset has myriad applications and can be used to:
 Identify priority areas of high ecological value for conservation purposes,
 Develop a sustainable development plan,
 Identify critical areas and populations that merit further scientific research, and
 Inform other conservation priorities
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ALM Thesis Proposal
Kathleen Wood
HUID 20840854
8 February 2015

In order to test the model, a case study will focus on the island of East Caicos in the Turks and
Caicos Islands. East Caicos is an uninhabited island of approximately 47 square kilometers. As such, it
is the largest uninhabited island in the Caribbean. The application of proposed model will
demonstrate its practicality and ease of implementation in scenarios where resources are limited
and physical planning lacks informed environmental input.
Below is a Google Earth image of the Turks and Caicos Islands. East Caicos is located in the
northeastern portion of the larger Caicos Bank.

Figure 1 - Google Earth Image of the Turks and Caicos Islands
The Turks and Caicos as a Case Study
Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) have experienced accelerated development within the past
three decades, with associated environmental impacts (Anonymous, 2014; Cangialosi, 2011;
Carleton & Lawrence, 2005; Pardee, 2014). In a 1971 assessment, visiting scientists described the
natural environment “…as close to the natural state as is likely to be the case for any similar islands
within the American tropics due to relatively light utilization by man” (Ray & Sprunt, 1971, p. 6). Ray
and Sprunt also forewarned:
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Kathleen Wood
HUID 20840854
8 February 2015

“Their [the islands’] value lies in their still retained beauty and relative remoteness. Their
ecology and small size makes mandatory that development not violate ecological integrity or natural
beauty. Their remoteness makes mandatory that they not imitate or compete with the massive
developmental schemes in the more accessible Western Hemisphere tropics. In short, these islands
are a special case. They deserve to be treated in a very special way” (Ray & Sprunt, 1971, p. 20).

Unfortunately, development in TCI did not take place in a special way. Development
interests began flocking in large numbers to TCI shortly after Ray and Sprunt’s assessment. Pristine
dwarf forests and coastal habitats have been clear-cut for hotel development and infrastructure, and
living and diverse coral reefs have been dredged to create marinas and a cruise ship terminal
(Goreau et al., 2007; Johnson, 2002). Uncontrolled and illegal development and a rapid increase in
population drives squatting and urban sprawl into undeveloped lands. No sustainable development
plan for the country currently exists; therefore, development has largely been driven by investment
interests, rather than by informed planning. The elected government has now indicated that it
intends to seek investment to develop a transshipping and cruise ship terminal on East Caicos.
Transshipping and cruise ship terminal development will require extensive dredging through coral
reefs and other marine habitats and significant land clearance for infrastructural development.
East Caicos is characterized by populations of endangered and endemic species populations,
coral reef ecosystems and critical habitats, such as spawning areas, nesting sites, seagrass beds and
mangrove forests (Buden, 1975, 1986; Buden & Felder, 1977; Goreau et al., 2007; Hilton, Cleeves,
Murray, Hughes, & Williams, 2000a; Presley & Willig, 2008; Wood, Brunnick, Harzen, Weinberg, &
Kissinger, 2010).
Ecological Assets
Due to the intact nature of existing ecosystems, East Caicos lends itself well to the proposed
case study. Quantitative data on the ecological variables of East Caicos are limited; however, the
data that exist suggest the island possesses significant high conservation values. A 2002 Darwin
Initiative project developed a biodiversity management plan for the North, Middle and East Caicos
Ramsar Site (Pienkowski, 2002). The report recommended that the entire island of East Caicos be set
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ALM Thesis Proposal
Kathleen Wood
HUID 20840854
8 February 2015

aside for conservation; however, no quantitative data is provided in the report to support this
recommendation. Furthermore, most of the field studies associated with that project took place on
the inhabited islands of North and Middle Caicos. The Ramsar site on East Caicos represents
approximately one-fourth of the total land area of the island. The remaining areas of East Caicos
were not intensively studied as part of the Darwin project.
A follow-up investigation to the Darwin Initiative Project explored cave ecosystems on East
Caicos. East Caicos caves possess features of geological, ecological and historic interest. Bat
populations of Macrotus waterhousii and Erophylla sezekorni were confirmed and evidence of
Brachyphylla spp. and Monophyllus spp. was also present (Hutson, McCarthy, & Hart, 2005). In
addition cave petroglyphs that date back to Lucayan Indian habitation at approximately 900-1200
C.E. have also been identified (Booy, 1912; Hutson et al., 2005; Pateman, 2013). The caves of East
Caicos are currently not protected.
Bird populations on East Caicos are also only qualitatively described. A 2000 study of
wetland habitats in TCI recorded a small population of piping plover (Charadrius melodus), listed by
the IUCN as a Near Threatened species (Hilton, Cleeves, Murray, Hughes, & Williams, 2000b).
Population sizes were not measured or estimated. A survey in February and March of 1999 sought to
make a preliminary assessment of the abundance and distribution of IUCN Vulnerable West Indian
whistling duck (Dendrocygna arborea), and identified only 5 animals (Hilton et al., 2000a); however
subsequent reports from recreational users suggest higher numbers. Actual population sizes of these
listed species and identification of the habitats being used have yet to be confirmed.
A 2006 study assessed coral reef health throughout the Turks and Caicos Islands (Goreau et
al., 2007), including East Caicos. The study incorporated extensive, rather than intensive assessment.
This method involved incorporating trained divers swimming over large areas of reef to determine
large-scale spatial patterns, rather than quantitative measurement (Goreau et al., 2007, p. 26). The
study also generalized findings across locations throughout TCI, and East Caicos data from the study
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