Allan Gray Annual Report

53 Pages·2016·0.89 MB·English

CONTENTS
1 CHAIRMAN’S REPORT ALLAN GRAY UNIT TRUSTS
3 CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER’S REPORT 43 Statements of comprehensive income
5 PORTFOLIO MANAGERS 47 Statements of financial position
9 ALLAN GRAY UNIT TRUSTS 51 Distribution to unitholders
19 PERFORMANCE SUMMARY 58 Trustees’ report on the Allan Gray
Unit Trust Scheme
FUND DATA
21 Allan Gray Equity Fund 59 IMPORTANT NOTES FOR INVESTORS
23 Allan Gray SA Equity Fund
25 Allan Gray-Orbis Global Equity Feeder Fund
27 Allan Gray Balanced Fund
29 Allan Gray-Orbis Global Fund of Funds
31 Allan Gray Stable Fund
33 Allan Gray Optimal Fund
35 Allan Gray-Orbis Global Optimal Fund of Funds
37 Allan Gray Bond Fund
39 Allan Gray Money Market Fund
41 Allan Gray Unit Trusts annual fees
42 Allan Gray Unit Trusts total expense ratios and
transaction costs
EDGAR LOXTON
CHAIRMAN’S REPORT
It has been a challenging year for investors globally. decreases by 20% you need 25% to get back to
From the Greek crisis and declining growth in China where you started. This illustrates the importance of
to a very weak rand, struggling resources and the containing losses during down markets. While our
debacle with our finance ministers, it’s no wonder relative performance may suffer when markets are
investors are battle weary. up, we tend to lose less when markets are down. We
have delivered effectively all of our long-term record
An investment manager’s job is to remain rational
of outperformance in equity and balanced mandates
during these testing times. When markets move
during months when the market was down.
dramatically on the back of emotional trading there
are sometimes opportunities to invest at a discount. Over the past few years we have repeatedly
The difficult part is assessing which shares are trading communicated that we considered South African
at a discount to their underlying long-term value, and shares expensive, and those in other markets less so.
which are only at a discount to their previous (perhaps The overall South African market is about flat over
irrationally inflated) price. Value-oriented managers the year, but this outcome is skewed by the shares
like us don’t always get this right: it requires analysts of a few multinational businesses that make up a
to look past the superficial and to make rigorous substantial part of the market and have done very well,
assessments of those factors that drive a company’s such as media giant Naspers, brewer SABMiller or
future prospects. We remain committed to doing the British American Tobacco. Outside of these there have
hard work required to successfully invest your funds in been dramatic share price drops and our analysts are
line with our research-based, value-oriented, long-term increasingly excited about the resulting opportunities
investment philosophy. to invest in well-priced businesses. We are now more
worried about global equity valuations, especially
Performance of our unit trusts
those in developed markets, which (on average) seem
The results of our analysts’ and portfolio managers’ to be unrealistically optimistic.
efforts in 2015 have been encouraging. Our three
You can find more detailed information on how we
largest ‘flagship’ funds (Equity, Balanced and Stable)
have positioned your portfolios in each unit trust on
have each beaten their benchmarks by some way and
the individual unit trust pages later in this publication.
delivered healthy real returns. The Allan Gray Balanced
Fund returned 12.3% for the year, 3.9% better than Changes to the Equity Fund and launch of SA Equity Fund
its benchmark and 7.5% ahead of inflation. The Allan
After the positive response to our ballot reported in last
Gray-Orbis Global Equity Feeder Fund and the Global
year’s report, the Equity Fund’s benchmark and fee
Fund of Funds delivered 29.5% and 31.1%. These
were changed and its mandate broadened to allow
numbers are 3.7% and 1.7% respectively behind their
25% offshore investment and a further 5% in Africa
benchmarks but are hopefully large enough in absolute
equities. Currently just over 13% is invested offshore
terms to provide some comfort to investors. The remaining
and this contributed 2.3% to the total return of the
smaller funds have all beaten their benchmarks.
Equity Fund over the year.
It probably isn’t a surprise to you that we did better
To cater for investors who would prefer a fund that
in 2015’s unsettled markets than before, when things
invests only in South Africa, we launched the Allan
were smoother sailing. We have written often about
Gray SA Equity Fund in March 2015. The new unit
managing the risk of a loss of capital: if your investment
1 ALLAN GRAY UNIT TRUSTS ANNUAL REPORT 31 DECEMBER 2015
trust has the same fee structure as the Allan Gray Keeping up with trends in technology
Equity Fund and its benchmark is the FTSE/JSE All
Investors’ expectations around client service are evolving.
Share Index (including income). You can read more
To meet the increasing demand for digital excellence,
about this unit trust on page 23. While we do not
in November 2015 we launched a new public website.
actively market this unit trust, you are welcome to
The new site reflects current best practices in the digital
contact your financial adviser, or our Client Service
world: pages are clean, information is presented in
Centre, if you need more information and it is open to
layers and the site works well on all digital devices. We
investments via all of our products on the same terms
are excited about the new website and encourage you to
as the Allan Gray Equity Fund.
visit www.allangray.co.za if you haven’t done so already.
Changes to the investment team
Update on unitholders
An important strength of our investment process is that
Assets under management as at 31 December 2015
it provides for multiple portfolio managers to each
were R230.4bn. While this is an increase from the
manage a slice of our clients’ portfolios for which
R215bn we reported at the end of 2014, it masks the
they are individually accountable. Not only does this
fact that there were net outflows of R16bn in 2015,
allow for a diversity of views to be expressed, but it
probably reflecting disappointment with our short-term
facilitates succession.
performance during the year.
In May this year we wrote to inform you that Ian Liddle,
Gross client outflows divided by the average value of
who has been chief investment officer (CIO) since early
assets in our unit trusts in 2015 were at 19%. This
2008, would take on the role of chairman of Allan Gray
means that, on average, clients are staying with us
Proprietary Limited following the sad passing of our
for five years. Our fund churn rate, which includes
chairman and former CIO Simon Marais. At the same
switches between unit trusts*, has come in at 24%
time we announced Andrew Lapping’s promotion to
for the year, reflecting a weighted average holding
deputy CIO and our intention that he take over from Ian
period for investors of just over four years.
as group CIO in March 2016. As this change comes into
effect, I would like to take this opportunity to thank Ian We try to encourage clients not to make emotional
for his tremendous contribution to the business during his decisions in response to the ups and downs of the
time as portfolio manager and CIO and wish Andrew market or of our performance, and to remain invested
every success as he moves into his new role. for a reasonable period of time, to give them more
opportunity to share in the performance of their chosen
These promotions made room for others to expand
funds. Allan Gray clients are better at long-term
their responsibilities and in November 2015 we
investing than the average investor and although these
announced that associate portfolio managers Ruan
numbers are worse than 2014, they are still quite
Stander, Jacques Plaut and Leonard Krüger, who have
positive. Nevertheless, it is frustrating that the months
all been in the investment team for the last eight years,
of good relative performance at the end of the year
were promoted to the role of portfolio manager. Gary
were not enjoyed by all of the investors who began
Elston has been appointed to manage the Money
the year with us.
Market Fund together with Andrew Lapping. You can
read their biographies on page 5. Thank you for trusting us with your savings.
*This excludes switches between classes of the same unit trust, and excludes switches from the Money Market Fund.
ALLAN GRAY UNIT TRUSTS ANNUAL REPORT 31 DECEMBER 2015 2
IAN LIDDLE
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER’S REPORT
Our purpose is to grow your savings. To do this we The price today determines future returns
must invest wisely and retain your trust and confidence.
One of the exciting aspects of markets is that they
We never take your trust for granted, and we work
move ahead of events. So while the public awareness
hard to earn it by communicating regularly, clearly
of South Africa’s many challenges is now burgeoning
and transparently with you and by providing excellent
both at home and abroad, the share price of Standard
service.
Bank, for example, has already collapsed almost two-
I am pleased to report that we are achieving our thirds from its peak above US$17 in October 2007 to
purpose for the overwhelming majority of our clients. its current level around US$6.40.
Thank you for your unwavering support. Having clients
The most important determinant of future investment
who look to the long-term allows us to make hard
returns is the price you pay today. Consequently, we
decisions which we believe to be in your best long-
are now buying domestic South African businesses in
term interest, but which can sometimes turn out to be
your portfolios, not because we are positive on South
painful for uncomfortably long periods. I hope that the
Africa’s near-term economic prospects, but because
good performance of our unit trusts in difficult markets
we find the share prices attractive enough to offer
in 2015 has rewarded your loyalty and patience.
potential returns which compensate for the risks.
South Africa is suffering some trying times, and
Our South African share portfolios currently contain
conditions may get worse before they get better. In
an eclectic assortment of companies. They range
our own small way we are trying to make a positive
from businesses with strong growth potential such as
contribution as a company: firstly, by empowering
Blue Label Telecoms, RMI, Naspers and Aspen, to
you by growing your savings, but also by supporting
businesses which have fallen on hard times, such as
the Allan Gray Orbis Foundation, which is creating
Murray & Roberts and Aveng. They include exporters
opportunities for many young South Africans. The
such as Sappi, Sasol, Kap and African Rainbow
establishment of Allan & Gill Gray Foundation by our
Minerals and domestic consumer-facing businesses
founder to hold and govern the controlling interest
such as Standard Bank and Sun International. Some
in our business and devote its dividend receipts to
are big multinationals such as British American
philanthropy will hopefully make an even bigger
Tobacco or Old Mutual, while others are small caps
impact in the coming years.
such as Comair, Adcorp and Super Group.
3 ALLAN GRAY UNIT TRUSTS ANNUAL REPORT 31 DECEMBER 2015
The common thread that weaves through this Looking ahead
seemingly incongruous mix is that our own fact-based
We can’t see the future, but it wouldn’t surprise
and un-emotive research into each of these businesses
me if 2016 proves to be a tough year. Hopefully
concludes that their current share prices are attractive
our diversified portfolios of relatively under-valued
relative to their true underlying values. Of course,
shares and our considerable cash and other liquid
our valuation of at least some of these shares will
holdings, will help us to weather the storm. I have the
be proven wrong in time. That is why our investment
utmost confidence in Andrew Lapping, who will be
process is designed to encourage independent thought
succeeding me as CIO, and in our investment team, to
and constant questioning of our assumptions from
steer us through the choppy waters.
each member of our investment team. It is also why we
hold a diversified portfolio, in which the winners can Thank you for your support.
hopefully outnumber and outgun the losers.
Staying conservative
Our conservative stance was rewarded in 2015, and
we are using some of our large cash and other liquid
holdings to buy shares which have fallen significantly
over the last year. But prices have not fallen enough
to go ‘all in’. While shares in emerging markets are
down significantly off their highs, the same cannot
yet be said of the bellwether US market. If corporate
profitability were to revert down to its long-term
average, and / or company valuations were to revert
down to their normal levels, global share prices could
fall significantly. The Allan Gray Balanced Fund had
a net equity exposure of 60% at year-end, but one
should remember this includes a 4% exposure to
SABMiller, which will be sold for cash if the acquisition
by AB Inbev proceeds.
ALLAN GRAY UNIT TRUSTS ANNUAL REPORT 31 DECEMBER 2015 4
PORTFOLIO MANAGERS
IAN LIDDLE
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER
BBusSc (Hons) CFA
Ian joined Allan Gray in 2001 as an equity analyst after several years as a
management consultant. He has been managing a portion of client equity and
balanced portfolios since January 2005, when he was appointed as a portfolio
manager. In February 2008 Ian was appointed as chief investment officer, with
overall responsibility for the investment team and portfolio management. He is
chairman of Allan Gray Proprietary Limited and a CFA charter holder.
DUNCAN ARTUS
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
BBusSc (Hons) PGDA CFA CMT
Duncan joined Allan Gray in 2001 and has been managing a portion of client
equity and balanced portfolios since January 2005, when he was appointed as a
portfolio manager. He is a director of Allan Gray Group Proprietary Limited. Duncan
completed his Honours in Business Science and postgraduate diploma in accounting
at UCT. He holds both the CFA and CMT charters.
MARK DUNLEY-OWEN
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
BBusSc (Hons)
Mark joined Allan Gray in 2009 having worked at a number of international
investment banks. He started managing a portion of the fixed interest portfolios in
July 2011, and a portion of the stable portfolios in May 2013. He is one of the
portfolio managers of the Allan Gray Money Market and Stable Funds, in addition
to managing Africa ex-SA bonds.
5 ALLAN GRAY UNIT TRUSTS ANNUAL REPORT 31 DECEMBER 2015
GARY ELSTON
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
BBusSc (Hons) CFA
Gary joined Allan Gray in 2008 and is currently a credit analyst as well as a
portfolio manager for the Allan Gray Money Market Fund. Prior to this role, he was
a fixed interest trader for over five years and has previous experience working in
the asset management industry in London. Gary has an Honours degree in Business
Science from UCT and is a CFA charter holder.
LEONARD KRÜGER
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
BSc (Hons) Actuarial Mathematics
Leonard joined Allan Gray in 2007 as an equity analyst. He began managing
a portion of our client’s equity and balanced portfolios earmarked for associate
portfolio managers from July 2014 and was appointed as portfolio manager of the
Stable portfolio in November 2015. Leonard completed his BSc (Hons) Actuarial
Mathematics at the University of Pretoria and is a qualified actuary.
ANDREW LAPPING
DEPUTY CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER
BSc (Eng) BCom CFA
Andrew joined Allan Gray in 2001 as a fixed interest trader and moved to the
research team as an equity analyst in February 2003. He was appointed as fixed
interest portfolio manager in June 2006, began managing a portion of client
equity and balanced portfolios in February 2008 and was appointed as deputy
chief investment officer in May 2015. He also manages African equities. Andrew
completed his BSc (Eng) and BCom at UCT and is a Chartered Financial Analyst.
ALLAN GRAY UNIT TRUSTS ANNUAL REPORT 31 DECEMBER 2015 6
PORTFOLIO MANAGERS
SANDY MCGREGOR
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
BSc BA (Hons)
Sandy joined Allan Gray as an investment analyst and economist in 1991. Previously
he was employed by Gold Fields of South Africa Limited in a variety of management
positions for 22 years, where much of his experience was focused on investment
related activities. His current responsibilities include the management of fixed interest
and individual client portfolios and he is a fund manager for the Allan Gray Bond
Fund. He was a director of Allan Gray Group Proprietary Limited from 1997 to 2006.
NICK NDIRITU
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
BSc (Eng) (Magna cum laude) MBA
Nick is a portfolio manager for the Allan Gray Africa ex-SA Equity Fund and Africa
ex-SA Bond Fund. He joined Allan Gray in 2010, with prior experience in investment
banking and management consulting. Nick holds a BSc in Industrial Engineering
(magna cum laude) from Northeastern University and an MBA from Harvard Business
School.
JACQUES PLAUT
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
BSc in Mathematics
Jacques joined Allan Gray in 2008 as an equity analyst after working as a
management consultant. He began managing a portion of client equity and balanced
portfolios earmarked for associate portfolio managers from March 2013 and was
appointed as portfolio manager in November 2015. Jacques completed his BSc
degree in Mathematics at UCT.
7 ALLAN GRAY UNIT TRUSTS ANNUAL REPORT 31 DECEMBER 2015
SIMON RAUBENHEIMER
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
BCom (Hons) (Cum laude) CFA
Simon joined Allan Gray in 2002 and has been managing a portion of client equity
and balanced portfolios since July 2008, when he was appointed as a portfolio
manager. He completed a BCom (Econometrics) degree at UP in 2000 and a BCom
(Honours) degree at UCT in 2001 and is a CFA charter holder. Simon is a director
of Allan Gray Investment Services Proprietary Limited.
RUAN STANDER
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
BSc (Hons) FIA FRM
Ruan joined Allan Gray in 2008 and is a quantitative and equity analyst as well as the
portfolio manager of the Allan Gray Optimal Fund. Ruan managed a portion of client
equity and balanced portfolios earmarked for associate portfolio managers from March
2013 and was appointed portfolio manager of these portfolios in November 2015. He
has an Honours degree in Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, is a certified GARP
Financial Risk Manager and a qualified actuary.
ALLAN GRAY UNIT TRUSTS ANNUAL REPORT 31 DECEMBER 2015 8