Ali, Omran Omer (2018) Unexpected effectiveness? The European Union and the long journey to ...

253 Pages·2017·2.74 MB·English

Ali, Omran Omer (2018) Unexpected effectiveness? The European Union
and the long journey to the 2015 landmark greement on Iran’s nuclear
programme. PhD thesis.

http://theses.gla.ac.uk/8981/

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Enlighten:Theses
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Unexpected Effectiveness? The European Union and the
Long Journey to the 2015 Landmark Agreement on Iran’s
Nuclear Programme

Omran Omer Ali, BSs, MSs, MRes

Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the
Degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Politics)

School of Social & Political Science
College of Social Sciences
University of Glasgow

October 2017
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Abstract
This study seeks to address the question of what explains variation in the effectiveness of
the EU’s actions towards Iran. To do so, it conducts a longitudinal analysis – spanning
from 1992 to 2015 – focusing primarily on the nuclear dispute, in which the EU, for many
unexpectedly, played a crucial role, particularly in the final period leading to the 2015
landmark agreement. In answering the central research question, this study expands on the
concept of effectiveness so far used by scholars interested in the EU’s behaviour in
multilateral contexts and applying it to a single country. Moreover, this study unpacks the
concept of effectiveness and explores the link between internal effectiveness – that is,
whether the EU manages to act cohesively and purposefully – and external effectiveness –
that is, whether the EU is able to reach the goals it sets for itself in the international arena.
In doing so, the aim is that of contributing to debates on whether and how EU internal
effectiveness influences EU external effectiveness and the extent to which the external
context helps explain variation in the EU’s ability to reach its stated goals.
By revisiting the long journey leading to the normalisation of relations between Iran and
the international community, this study demonstrates that internal effectiveness is
necessary, but insufficient to explain EU external effectiveness, which in fact is also
contingent upon the external context in which the EU operates. In particular, the empirical
findings covering three distinct periods have demonstrated that focusing only on the
position of the US (and related transatlantic cooperation) cannot always provide us with a
full explanation of why the EU is (un)able to reach its objectives vis-à-vis third countries.
Importantly, the behaviour of the ‘target country’ and the negotiating style used by the EU
must be taken into account to explain why the EU’s effectiveness towards Iran has varied
across time. As for internal effectiveness, it has been argued that the EU is effective as a
global actor when it is able to act autonomously, coherently and is recognised by other
actors, including the target country. The level of legal competence in shaping the EU’s
capacity to act coherently and effectively in world politics is less important than what has
been claimed by the existing literature. Importantly, when the EU is able to articulate
determinate common positions and the Member States stick to what they decide jointly, the
likelihood for the EU of being externally effective is significantly enhanced, regardless of
decision-making rules.
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Table of Contents
Title Page…… ......................................................................................................................1
Abstract ............................................................................................................................. 2
List of tables ...................................................................................................................... 5
List of figures .................................................................................................................... 6
Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ 8
Declaration ...................................................................................................................... 10
Abbreviations .................................................................................................................. 11
Chapter 1: Introduction .............................................................................................. 13
1.In search of explanations for the EU’s action towards Iran ......................................... 15
2. Research methods and data collection ....................................................................... 20
3. Outline of the thesis .................................................................................................. 22
Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 24

Chapter 2: Theoretical framework: understanding EU effectiveness towards third
countries .................................................................................................................... 25
Introduction .................................................................................................................. 25
1. Effectiveness: definition and measurement ............................................................... 26
2. Understanding EU internal effectiveness .................................................................. 29
3. Linking internal and external effectiveness ............................................................... 35
4. Understanding EU external effectiveness .................................................................. 37
Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 47
Chapter 3: First period (1992 - 2002): from critical to comprehensive dialogue ....... 48
Introduction .................................................................................................................. 48
1. Critical dialogue ....................................................................................................... 50
2. The Mykonos crisis and the end of critical dialogue.................................................. 60
3. Comprehensive dialogue .......................................................................................... 65
Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 74

Chapter 4: Second period (2003 - 2005): unilateral EU diplomatic initiatives with
limited coercive measures ......................................................................................... 77
Introduction .................................................................................................................. 77
1. Iran’s nuclear programme ......................................................................................... 80
2. The E3’s diplomatic initiatives .................................................................................. 83
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3. From the E3 to the E3/EU ......................................................................................... 91
4. The Paris Agreement and the difficult negotiations over a long-term solution ........... 97
Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 105

Chapter 5: Third period (2006 - 2015): from coercive to cooperative diplomacy within
multilateral negotiations ......................................................................................... 107
Introduction ................................................................................................................ 107
1. The involvement of the UNSC ................................................................................ 109
2. The sanctions against Iran within the UNSC framework.......................................... 114
3. The EU and the new US administration ................................................................... 118
4.The EU unilateral sanctions against Iran and the negotiations of a comprehensive deal
……………………………………………………………………………………….124
Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 137

Chapter 6: Comparative analysis: reflecting on the EU’s action towards Iran ....... 139
Introduction ................................................................................................................ 139
1. Revisiting the long journey to the 2015 agreement .................................................. 140
2. Explaining EU internal effectiveness ....................................................................... 142
3. Explaining EU external effectiveness ...................................................................... 149
Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 156

Chapter 7: Conclusion .............................................................................................. 157
1. EU-Iran relations and the nuclear issue…………………………………………….158
2. The EU’s effectiveness vis-à-vis third countries…………………………………...161
3. Final remarks……………………………………………………………………….164

Appendices ................................................................................................................... 167
Appendix I: List of interviewees………………………………………………………167
Appendix II: Chronology of relations between the EU and Iran and the key issues (1992-
2002) .......................................................................................................................... 168
Appendix III: Chronology of relations between the EU and Iran and the key issues
(2003-2005) ............................................................................................................... 170
Appendix IV: Chronology of relations between the EU and Iran and the key issues
(2006-2015) ............................................................................................................... 173
Appendix V: Main UNSC, EU and US sanctions imposed against Iran ....................... 178
Appendix VI: List of nuclear facilities under the IAEA safeguards ............................. 188

References .................................................................................................................... 190
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List of tables
Table 3.1 Europeans exports to Iran 1991-1997 in million US$ ...................................... 56
Table 3.2 Europeans imports from Iran 1991-1997 in million US$ ................................. 57
Table 3.3 EU-Iran trade (in € million) ............................................................................ 69
Table 5.1 EU and its Members States trade with Iran (imports from Iran: € million) ..... 123
Table 5.2 EU and its Members States trade with Iran (exports to Iran: € million) .......... 123
Table 5.3 EU and its Members States trade with Iran (imports from Iran: € million) ..... 128
Table 5.4 EU and its Members States trade with Iran (exports to Iran: € million) .......... 128
Table 7.1 Summary of empirical findings ………………………………………………164
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List of figures
Figure 2.1 The EU in relation to third countries: internal effectiveness, contextual factors,
external effectiveness …………………………………………………………………….46
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Dedication

To my beloved wife “Jihan”

To my adorable sons “Ali, Mohammed and Judi”
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Acknowledgements
My PhD journey has been unspeakably difficult and burdensome. Having reached a point
at which my journey is complete, I have to raise my endless praises and thanks to the God,
The Almighty, for His unlimited showers of blessings throughout my research work.
There are a number of people without whose support I could not have been able to
successfully accomplish my PhD, and to whom I am greatly indebted. First and foremost, I
am immensely grateful to my supervisors, Professor Maurizio Carbone and Dr. Naomi
Head, for their invaluable guidance and support over the last few years. I am extremely
indebted to them for their patience, advice and encouragement at times of occasional
slippages on my part into academic realms and at times of frustration to overcome
difficulties during my research journey. It was a great privilege to work under their
guidance and supervision. Without their remarkable support and distinctive feedback, this
PhD thesis would not have come to fruition.
I would like to thank my sponsor, the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific
Research/ Kurdistan Regional Government, who provided me with an opportunity to
conduct my research. I am also highly indebted to the Department of Politics, the School of
Social and Political Sciences and the University of Glasgow for their financial support, in
particular for my tuition fees (particularly Professor Michele Burman). I would also like to
thank my interviewees who kindly gave up valuable time to share their ideas and
experiences with me which importantly contributed to this study.
This thesis also would not have been possible without the endless support and
encouragement of my beloved wife Jihan. Your patience, caring and love are unspeakable.
I will remain forever grateful to you. Thank you for being my better half. Sincere thanks
are also due to the support of my family and friends. My most wholehearted gratitude is
owed to my mother and my father for their unlimited love, caring, support, prayers and
encouragement. My heartfelt thanks to my mother-in-law and father-in-law: your endless
love and support has been my inspiration during my study. I also owe my deepest thanks to
my brother and friend, Amir Omer, for his enduring support during my study. Many thanks
also to my brothers and sisters and all members of my families. Particular thanks to my
friends Elodie Sellar for her invaluable support and Arman Zandi for being so helpful,
friendly and kind during my stay here in Glasgow. I am also grateful to Mr AbdulSalam
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Medeni for his munificent support. Last, but certainly not least, I am greatly appreciative to
my friends, Omed Amedi and Rezheen Fatah, for their generous support.