(ALGAS): Pakistan

297 Pages·2001·18.38 MB·English

by  Asian Development Bank

Asia Least-cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy

Pakistan
Asian Development Bank
Global Environment Facility
United Nations Development Programme
Asia Least-cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy
Pakistan
Asian Development Bank
Global Environment Facility
United Nations Development Programme
Manila, Philippines
October 1998
The use of the material printed herein is encouraged,
with appropriate credit, given to the publishers and
authors. Please address inquiries to Chief, Office of
Environment and Social Development, Asian
Development Bank, PP..OO. . Box 789, 0980 Manila,
Philippines.
Printed and published in Manila, Philippines.
© Asian Development Bank
ISBN 971-561-186-9
Publication Stock No. 070698
T his report is the outcome of a country study conducted under the ALGAS PREFACE
project by Pakistan. ALGAS, which stands for “Asia Least-cost Greenhouse
Gas Abatement Strategy,” is a study by 12 Asian countries of national
emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in 1990, the projections of GHGs
emissions to 2020, and an analysis of GHGs abatement options in different
economic sectors. The study includes the formulation of national GHGs
abatement strategies consistent with national development priorities, and the
preparation of a portfolio of GHGs abatement projects and national action plans
embodying national development objectives.
The ALGAS project was executed by the Asian Development Bank (ADB)
during 1995-1998 with funding of about $9.5 million from the Global
Environment Facility (GEF) through the United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP). The ADB also provided supplemental funding of $ 592,000. The
Government of Norway and the Governments of participating countries likewise
provided financial and in-kind contributions, respectively, to the project. With a
budget of more than $10 million, this is the largest regional technical assistance
project executed by the ADB. Apart from Pakistan, the countries involved in the
study are Bangladesh, People’s Republic of China, India, Indonesia, Republic of
Korea, Mongolia, Myanmar, Phdippines, Thailand, Viet Nam, and the Democratic
People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). For DPRK, the country study is being
executed by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the
Pacific (UN ESCAP). Together, these countries contain more than one half of the
world’s population. The ALGAS project was designed to assist the countries to
meet their commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change.
A team of national technical experts (NTEs) undertook each country study,
with the active involvement of Governments through a designated national
counterpart agency (NCA). The NTEs were drawn from different institutions of
each country, and were assisted in their tasks by a team of international technical
experts (ITEs). The ALGAS project involved a number of regional capacity-
building activities, including training workshops on GHGs inventory preparation,
analysis of GHGs mitigation options, empirical measurements of methane from
rice paddies, analytical modeling of the energy and forestry sectors, and the
preparation of project prefeasibility reports. It also included study tours, supply of
equipment, and a regional database. A regional thematic support group of experts
who have contributed to the study was organized to help continue cooperation
among the participating countries. The Environment Division, Office of
Environment and Social Development of the ADB, with the active support of
UNDP-GEF, coordinated the study. The UNDP country offices provided significant
logistics support and encouragement to the NTEs teams.
In the case of Pakistan, the NCA was the Ministry of Environment, Local
Government and Rural Development. The NTEs team, which was led by experts
of Hagler Bailly Pakistan, included experts of Asianics AgroDevelopment
International, and Enteprise and Development Consultants. The Deutsche
Gesellschaft fur Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH supported the ALGAS project in
Paksitan by funding the component on GHGs inventoryp reparation. At different
stages of the study, the NTEs team conducted several national workshops in
which interim results were presented and feedback obtained from government
agencies, industries, researchers, and NGOs.
The ITEs team included experts of Alternative Energy Development, Inc. (US)
in association with Asian Institute of Technology (Thailand); Australian Bureau of
PAKISTAN PAGE I
PREFACE
Agricultural and Resource Economics; Hagler Bailly Services (US); ICF Kaiser (US);
and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US). A number of institutions in the
participating countries helped conduct various capacity-building activities. The
ITES team included several members from the region who were concurrently
members of their respective NTEs teams. A group of independent international
reviewers carried out peer reviews of each country study.
The completion of this report, together with its companion volumes on the
other 11 participating countries and the Regional Summary report, is an indication
of the success of this regional collaborative effort. Each country report comprises,
besides an executive summary, chapters on country background; an assessment
of energy, forestry and land-use change, and agriculture sectors; formulation of a
national least-cost GHGs abatement strategy; a portfolio of least-cost GHGs
abatement projects, a national GHGs action plan; and recommendations and
future actions. It is hoped that the ALGAS reports would be useful to
policymakers, multilateral and bilateral development agencies, the private sector,
and researchers in the field both from within and outside the region, particularly
those involved with climate change issues.
Asian Development Bank
Global Environment Facility
United Nations Development Programme
NATIONAL TECHNICAL EXPERTS TEAM Hagler Bailly Pakistan
Safiya Aftab, Ahmed Afzal, Rizwan Afzal, Mohammad Ashfaq, Sajad
Haider, Waqar Haider, Shaheen Khan, Jamil Masud, Shahrukh Pracha,
Abdul Razzaq, Tayyab Sharif, Tashfeen Sohail, Vaqar Zakaria (Project
Coordinator/Team Leader)
Asianics Agro Development International
Yusuf Chaudhry, Haleem ul Hasnain, Azam Malik
Enterprise and Development Consultants
Maleeha Hussain
INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL EXPERTS Alternative Energy Development, Inc. US
TEAM Matthew Mendis (Team Leader), Marcia Gowen (GHGs Mitigation,
CERI Curves), Keith Openshaw (Forestry)
Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand
Thierry Lefevre (EFOM/ENV and MEDEE- S/ENV Modeling)
Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics
Brian Dawson, Barry Naughton, Kenneth Noble (MARKAL Modeling)
PAGE II PAKISTAN
PREFACE
Bangladesh University of Energy and Technology
Ijaz Hossain (GHGs Mitigation)
Hagler Bailly Services, US
Amit Bando (National Work Plans, Project Development)
ICF Kaiser, US
Craig Ebert, Barbara Bratz (GHGs Inventory)
Indian Institute of Science, India
N.H. Ravindranath (Forestry)
International Rice Research Institute, Philippines
Rhoda S. Lantin (Agriculture)
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, US
Jayant Sathaye, Allan Meiers, Stephen Meyers (GHGs Mitigation, CERI
Curves, Project Development)
National Physical Laboratory
A.P. Mitra (GHGs Inventory)
Global Atmospheric Division, Department of the Environment, EXTERNAL PEER REVIEWERS (FOR
Transport and the Regions, UK
THIS COUNTRY STUDY)
Jim Penman (GHGs Inventory)
Global Environment and Energy in the 21st Century, US
Toufiq Siddiqi (GHGs Mitigation)
PAKISTAN PAGE III
T he Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the United Nations FOREWORD
Development Programme (UNDP) are pleased to have had the opportu nity to
join in working on the Asia Least-cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement
(ALGAS) Project. This is one example of our successful collaboration. We are
particularly gratified to note the hard work put in by the country project
teams and the international consultants to achieve a successful outcome of
this Project. The commitments shown by the participating parties is a
positive sign that efforts will be carried forward into follow-up work. We
believe that this Country Report, the ten accompanying Country Reports,
and the Summary Report, which have been released on the occasion of the
Fourth Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change in November 1998 in Buenos
Aires, will be useful to the policymakers, donor agencies, researchers, and
the broader Climate Change community. We hope that they will lead to
further concrete steps by all of these parties to ensure that the work
undertaken to date will bear fruit in significant action to mitigate climate
change.
Kazi F. Jalal Nay Htun
Chief, Office of Environment Assistant Administrator and
and Social Development Regional Director for Asia and Pacific
ADB Headquarters UNDP Headquarters
Manila, Philippines New York, USA
PAKISTAN PAGE v
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS D uring the implementation of the ALGAS Project over the past three
years, the Project Team at the Asian Development Bank has received
help, support, and guidance from many individuals and
organizations. It is unlikely that we would be able to mention them all, let
alone express our gratitude in full.
In respect of the Pakistan Country Report, we are grateful for the
guidance, kindness, and support of Mahboob Elahi and his colleagues in the
Ministry of Environment, Local Government and Rural Development.
We are grateful for the dedicated efforts of both the National Technical
Experts (NTEs) teams, which prepared this report, and the International
Technical Experts (ITEs) team, which provided assistance at different stages,
members of which are listed separately in this report. Robert Lee of
Alternative Energy Development, Inc. helped in the coordination of the
different NTEs teams and in the technical editing of this report. Ida Juliano of
Tetra Tech EM Inc. formatted the report and designed the layout.
The GHGs Inventory part of the Pakistan Country Report was peer-
reviewed by Jim Penman of the Department of the Environment, Transport
and the Regions, United Kingdom, and the GHGs Mitigation component by
Toufiq Siddiqi of Global Environment and Energy in the 21st Century, United
States.
Nay Htun, Richard Hosier, and Nandita Mongia of the UNDP
Headquarters provided significant help and support in the implementation of
the Project. J.K. Robert England and his colleagues in the UNDP Country
Office in Islamabad were relied upon at different stages to follow-up on
various matters with the NTEs teams and the Government of Pakistan, and
provided logistics support. Coordination between the ADB, UNDP
Headquarters, and the UNDP Country Offices was greatly facilitated by Sarah
Timpson, Jorge Reyes, and Clarissa Arida of the UNDP Country Office in
Manila.
The Project Team worked under the close guidance and encouragement
of Kazi Jalal of ADB Headquarters, Manila. Assistance was also provided by
M.F.W. Zijsvelt in the ADB Resident Mission in Pakistan. Finally, the efficient
management of the Project owes a great deal to the ever-patient, helpful, and
meticulous Annie Idanan.
The usual disclaimer applies. The ideas and methods presented in this
report are the work of the NTEs and ITEs teams, peer-reviewers, and ADB
and UNDP staff who collaborated in the preparation of the report, and do not
represent the official policies or positions of ADB, GEF, and UNDP.
Prodipto Ghosh
Senior Environment Specialist
and ALGAS Project Officer
Bindu N. Lohani
Manager, Environment Division
and ALGAS Project Supervisor
Asian Development Bank
Manila, Philippines
PAGE VI PAKISTAN
PREFACE ...................................................................................................................... I CONTENTS
NATIONAL TECHNICAL EXPERTS TEAM ................................................. II
INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL EXPERTS TEAM ....................................... II
EXTERNAL PEER REVIEWERS (FOR THIS COUNTRY STUDY) ........................ III
FOREWORD ................................................................................................................... V
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .............................................................................................. VI
TABLES ................................................................................................................. X
FIGURES ................................................................................................................. XVII
ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................................... XIX
1.1 COUNTRY PROFILE: STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECTION 1
ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVITIES ..................................................................... 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.2 NATIONAL INVENTORY OF GHGs SOURCES AND SINKS ....................... 5
1.3 BASELINE PROJECTION OF NATIONAL GHGs INVENTORIES TO 2020 ... 7
1.4 GHGs MITIGATION OPTIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES ........................... 8
1.5 BASELINE AND ABATEMENT SCENARIOS TO 2020 ............................. 12
1.5.1 ENERGY ........................................................................................... 12
1.5.2 FORESTRY ...................................................................................... 13
1.5.3 AGRICULTURE .................................................................................... 13
1.6 NATIONAL LEAST-COST GHGS ABATEMENT CURVE .................. 14
1.7 NATIONAL GHGS ABATEMENT ACTION PLAN ............................. 15
1.7.1 POLICY OPTIONS ......................................................................... 16
1.7.2 INSTITUTIONAL MEASURES ............................................................ 17
2.1 COUNTRY PROFILE ................................................................................... 23 SECTION 2
2.1.1 GEOGRAPHY ..................................................................................... 24 INTRODUCTION AND
2.1.2 LAND-USE PATTERNS ........................................................................... 24
2.1.3 SOCIETY .................................................................................... 25 BACKGROUND
2.1.4 ECONOMY ..................................................................................... 25
2.1.5 ENVIRONMENT ................................................................................. 26
2.1.6 STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ACTIVITIES ................................. 28
2.2 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ............................................... 29
3.1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ......................................................... 35 SECTION 3
3.2 SECTOR GHGs INVENTORY .............................................................. 38 ENERGY SECTOR ASSESSMENT
3.2.1 METHODOLOGY .......................................................................... 39
3.2.2 DATA SOURCES .................................................................................. 42
3.2.3 NATIONAL GHGs EMISSIONS INVENTORY FOR THE ENERGY
SECTOR ................................................................................................. 64
3.2.4 LIMITATIONS OF THE INVENTORY DATA .......................................... 49
3.2.5 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................. 50
3.3 SECTOR GHGs ABATEMENT OPTIONS .................................................... 51
3.3.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 51
3.3.2 MITIGATION OPTIONS ASSESSMENT ............................................ 51
3.3.3 SUMMARY OF MITIGATION OPPORTUNITIES ............................ 52
3.4 BASELINE AND ABATEMENT SCENARIOS TO 2020 ................................ 60
3.4.1 APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY ................................................ 60
3.4.2 SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS ...................................................................... 61
3.4.3 BASELINE SCENARIO RESULTS ..................................................... 62
PAKISTAN PAGE VII
CONTENTS
3.4.4 MITIGATION SCENARIO ............................................................... 72
3.4.5 IMPACTS OF THE BASELINE AND MITIGATION SCENARIOS ......... 76
3.5 ENERGY SECTOR GHGs ABATEMENT STRATEGY ............................ 82
3.5.1 GENERAL ABATEMENT STRATEGY AND GOALS ........................... 86
3.5.2 PROPOSED TIME-LINE FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF STRATEGY ........ 87
3.6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................. 89
SECTION 4 4.1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ...................................................... 97
FORESTRY AND LAND-USE 4.2 SECTOR GHGs INVENTORY .................................................................... 98
4.2.1 METHODOLOGY ......................................................................... 99
CHANGE SECTOR ASSESSMENT
4.2.2 DATA SOURCES .......................................................................... 100
4.2.3 INVENTORY ............................................................................ 100
4.2.4 BASELINE SCENARIO PROJECTION OF SECTORAL GHGs
INVENTORY TO 2020 .................................................................. 102
4.2.5 LIMITATIONS OF THE INVENTORY DATA .................................... 104
4.2.6 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................... 105
4.3 SECTOR GHGs ABATEMENT OPTIONS ..................................................... 106
4.3.1 MITIGATION OPTIONS ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY ......................... 107
4.3.2 SUMMARY OF MITIGATION OPPORTUNITIES ............................... 107
4.3.3 ASSESSMENT OF MITIGATION OPTIONS .................................. 112
4.4 BASELINE AND LEAST-COST ABATEMENT SCENARIOS TO 2020 ........ 114
4.4.1 APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY ............................................. 115
4.4.2 SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS ..................................................................... 115
4.4.3 BASELINE SCENARIO ........................................................................ 116
4.4.4 MITIGATION SCENARIO ............................................................. 117
4.4.5 IMPACTS OF THE BASELINE AND ABATEMENT SCENARIOS ............ 117
4.5 SECTOR LEAST-COST GHGS ABATEMENT SCENARIOS ................. 119
4.5.1 GENERAL STRATEGY AND GOALS ......................................... 119
4.5.2 PROPOSED TIMELINE FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF STRATEGY ........... 120
4.6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................... 122
SECTION 5 5.1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ........................................................ 127
AGRICULTURE SECTOR 5.2 SECTOR GHGs INVENTORY ................................................................ 128
ASSESSMENT 5.2.1 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................. 128
5.2.2 DATA SOURCES ....................................................................... 130
5.2.3 INVENTORY ............................................................................... 131
5.2.4 BASELINE SCENARIO PROJECTION OF SECTORAL GHGS
INVENTORY TO 2020 ................................................................... 132
5.2.5 LIMITATIONS OF THE GHGS INVENTORY DATA ................... 132
5.2.6 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................. 133
5.3 SECTOR GHGs ABATEMENT OPTIONS .................................................. 134
5.3.1 MITIGATION OPTIONS ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY ......................... 134
5.3.2 SUMMARY OF MITIGATION OPPORTUNITIES .......................... 135
5.3.3 ASSESSMENT OF MITIGATION OPTIONS ........................................ 136
5.4 BASELINE AND LEAST-COST ABATEMENT SCENARIOS TO 2020 ....... 138
5.4.1 APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY ............................................ 138
5.4.2 SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS ................................................................ 138
5.4.3 BASELINE SCENARIO .................................................................. 139
5.4.4 MITIGATION SCENARIO ............................................................. 139
PAGE VIII PAKISTAN