ALCOHOL AND DRUGS, DELINQUENCY AND CRIME Also by Lyle W. Shannon CHANGING PATTERNS OF DELINQUENCY AND CRIME: A Longitudinal Study in Racine CRIMINAL CAREER CONTINUITY: Its Social Context DEVELOPING AREAS: A Book of Reading and Research (editor with V. J. Pillai) MINORITY MIGRANTS IN THE URBAN COMMUNITY SOCKS AND CRETIN: Two Democats Helping Bill with Presidency UNDERDEVELOPED AREAS: A Book of Readings and Research Alcohol and Drugs, Delinquency and Crime Looking Back to the Future Lyle W. Shannon Professor Emeritus of Sociology and Director Iowa Urban Community Research Center The University of Iowa Iowa City with the assistance of Judith L. McKim Kathleen R. Anderson William E. Murph flfl First published in Great Britain 1998 by « MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 0-333-71912-3 m First published in the United States of America 1998 by ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC., Scholarly and Reference Division, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 ISBN 0-312-21437-5 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Shannon, Lyle W. Alcohol and drugs, delinquency, and crime : looking back to the future / Lyle W. Shannon ; with the assistance of Judith L. McKim, Kathleen R. Anderson, William E. Murph. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-312-21437-5 (cloth) 1. Juvenile delinquency—Wisconsin—Racine—Longitudinal studies. 2. Youth—Drug use—Wisconsin—Racine—Longitudinal studies. 3. Youth—Alcohol use—Wisconsin—Racine—Longitudinal studies. 4. Narcotics and crime—Wisconsin—Racine—Longitudinal studies. I. McKim, Judith L. II. Anderson, Kathleen R. III. Murph, William E. IV. Title. HV9106.R33S53 1998 364.36'09775,96—<lc21 98-11064 CIP © Lyle W. Shannon 1998 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P 9HE. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 Printed in Great Britain by The Ipswich Book Company Ltd Ipswich, Suffolk Contents Acknowledgments ix Preface xi 1 Delinquency and Crime in the United States 1 A Sociological Perspective 1 Measuring Delinquency and Crime 8 Summary 20 2 Delinquency and Crime in Racine 22 Focusing on the Urban Scene in Racine 22 Season Fluctuations in Rates 24 The Longitudinal Birth Cohort Data 25 The Changing Number and Distribution of Offenses in the Racine Cohorts 31 The Changing Incidence of Serious Offenses in the Racine Cohorts* 34 The Changing Distribution of Serious Offenses by Age Period, Sex, and Cohort 36 Summary 38 The Ecological Approach to Explaining Delinquency 39 Dangerous Areas 39 The Ecology of Racine 40 A City in Transition 44 Temporal Trends in Offense Rates by Spatial Areas 45 Life in the Delinquent Neighborhood 48 Conclusion 52 The Justice System 54 The Increasing Prison Population 54 The Effectiveness of the Justice System 55 Public Perceptions of Crime 60 The Effects of Sanctions in Racine 63 Conclusion 68 V VI Contents 5 The Prediction Problem 71 Introduction 71 Early Attempts to Predict Crime from Delinquency in the Cohorts 72 A Different Way of Looking at the Prediction Problem 79 Prediction from Numerous Background Variables 83 Conclusion 83 6 Career Continuity in Delinquency and Crime and the Prediction Problem 85 The Typological Approach to Representing Criminal Careers 85 Computer-constructed Typologies 88 The Complexity of an Offense Type Typology 92 Drug Offenders vs. Non-Drug Offenders in the 1955 Cohort 98 The Relationship of Juvenile Types to Adult Types: Self-report Data 103 Adding a Persistence Dimension to Typologies 105 Conclusion 106 7 Narrowing the Focus to Increase Predictive Efficiency 108 The Ecology of Drugs and Serious Crime in Racine 108 Patterns of Substance Involvement 112 Continuity in Careers: Neighborhoods and Drug Users/Offenders vs. Non-Users/Non-Offenders 113 Are Drugs at the Center of the Crime Problem? 115 The Changing Distribution of All-around Street Offenders and Drug Offenders 116 The Development of Dangerous Neighborhoods 119 The Continuing Differential Impact of Drug Offenses and Neighborhoods of Socialization on Continuity 119 Conclusion 124 8 Thinking About the Drug/Crime Relationship 125 The Diversity of Patterns of Drug/Crime Involvement 125 What the Literature Suggests 130 Recent Surveys of Correctional Facilities 132 NIJ's Drug Use Forecasting 133 DUF and the Development of a Cross-sectional Model 134 Contents vn Beyond DUF and Outside Prison 136 The Racine Findings and the Broader Problem 137 Conclusion 138 The Relationship of Alcohol and Drugs to Delinquency and Crime in Racine 140 Comparing Drug Users/Offenders and Non-Drug Users/Offenders 140 Seriousness Scores for the 1942 and 1949 Drug Offender Types 142 Comparing the Distribution of Official and Self-report Types for the 1942 and 1949 Cohorts 143 Comparing Juvenile and Adult Offender Types in the 1955 Cohort 144 The Temporal Sequence of Drug Contacts and Other Offenses in the 1955 Cohort 145 Updating the 1955 Cohort and Recoding for Illegal Substance Involvement 149 Variation in Drugs and Reasons for Police Contacts 150 Involvement with Liquor 152 Summary and Conclusion 153 Alcohol and Drugs and Criminal Career Continuity in the 1955 Cohort 155 Introduction 155 The Cohort in 1970 and in 1988 155 Frequency Types and the Alcohol/Drug and Delinquency/Crime Relationship 156 The Delinquent Career and the Adult Career: The 1955 Cohort Updated to 1988 161 The Delinquent Career and the Adult Career: Augmented 1955 Cohort 165 Continuity Among Males from Inner-city and Transitional Neighborhoods 172 Summary 175 Summary and Conclusions 176 A Framework within which to Examine Patterns and Rates of Delinquency and Crime 176 Variation in Delinquency and Crime Rates 177 The Ecology of Delinquency and Crime 178 The Effectiveness of the Justice System 178 viii Contents The Prediction Problem 179 Types of Delinquent and Criminal Careers 180 The Racine Computer-constructed Typologies 180 Drugs, Delinquency, and Crime and the Ecology of the City 181 The Drug/Crime Relationship and Career Continuity 182 Alcohol vs. Drugs and Career Continuity 184 Conclusion 186 Bibliography 192 Index 202 Acknowledgments Literally hundreds of graduate and undergraduate students from the University of Wisconsin in Madison, the University of Wisconsin- Parkside, and the University of Iowa have assisted us in our re search in Madison and Racine over a period of more than 40 years. They assisted us in interview schedule construction and pretesting, in self-report construction and pretesting, and later in many waves of interviewing for our two major projects. They coded official records, checkcoded, entered data in the computers, helped us construct tables, collapse categories of data, and wrote preliminary assess ments of the findings. We sat around the table and discussed what we were learning and what we should be doing that we were not doing. The students said that it was not just a job because they had become part of the project. Many developed research papers based on the data and some did their MA and PhD theses with the data. We welcomed their participation and always told them that if they eventually did a reanalysis of the data which found that something the professors concluded must be modified or com pletely thrown out, that would indeed be a feather in their hats. Numerous citations in the text and items in the bibliography are to theses and papers by graduate students and now more and more to professors of sociology in other academic institutions, many of whom got their start at interviewing and data collection on the Madison and Racine projects. Most of the funding for research on juvenile delinquency and adult crime came from the National Institute of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention and the National Institute of Justice of the Department of Justice. The numerous lengthy reports which we have made to these agencies are cited and listed in the bibli ography. Our basic data have been made available by the Depart ment of Justice though the National Institute of Justice's Data Resources Program on a CD-ROM, Violence Research, NCJ - 151523, and through the Inter-university Consortium for Political and So cial Research at the University of Michigan. More recent data may be obtained from the Consortium and the Sociometrics Corpora tion in Los Altos, California, Data Set JU 86, Patterns of Drug Use and Their Relation to Improving Prediction of Patterns of Delinquency IX
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