Alberta air strategy baseline supply demand study : submitted to the Alberta Air Transportation Strategy Steering Committee

114 Pages·1994·6.9 MB·English

by  Dalcor Innoventures Ltd

ALBERTA AIR STRATEGY CANADiANA
APR 19 1995
BASELINE STUDY

ALBERTA AIR STRATEGY
BASELINE STUDY
PROLOG/DALCOR

ALBERTA AIR STRATEGY
BASELINE SUPPLY DEMAND STUDY
Submitted to:
THE ALBERTA AIR TRANSPORTATION STRATEGY STEERING COMMITTEE
Submitted by:
DALCOR INNOVENTURES Ltd./ PROLOG PLANNING INC.
August 8, 1994

Alberta Air Services Baseline Supply Demand Study Page i
DALCOR Innoventures & PROLOG Planning
August 8, 1994
TERMINOLOGY
Aviation Demand - A viation demand is reported from an airport activity perspective as the
total of enplaned plus deplaned passengers and loaded plus offloaded cargo (US DOT
enplaned statistics are doubled to estimate total demand). This demand does not include
through passengers and cargo which arrive and depart an airport on the same aircraft.
However, it does include passengers who connect or cargo which is trans-shipped between
separate aircraft at the same airport. As a result, origin-destination demand for air travel
may be overestimated to the extent that passengers or cargo cormect through one or more
airports within the same market area.
Combi Service - a ir service by aircraft offering mixed passenger and cargo configurations.
OID - o rigin/destination.

Alberta Air Services Baseline Supply Demand Study
Page ii
DALCOR Innoventures & PROLOG Planning
August 8, 1994
Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION Page 1
2. DEMAND ANALYSIS 2
2.1 CANADIAN MARKET 3
2.2 PACIFIC NORTHWEST MARKET 5
2.3 INTERNATIONAL MARKET 10
2.4 ALBERTA MARKET LEAKAGE 14
3. SERVICE ANALYSIS 17
3.1 MAJOR SCHEDULED PASSENGER SERVICE 17
3.1.1 Domestic and Transborder Traffic 18
3.1.2 International Gateway Traffic 1 9
3.2 ALTERNATIVE PASSENGER CARRIER SERVICE 22
3.2.1 Long Haul Charter Service 22
3.2.2 Short Haul Low-Cost Service 24
3.3 ALBERTA AIR CARGO SERVICE 25
3.3.1 All Cargo Aircraft Service 25
3.3.2 Joint Production Cargo Service 27
4. SCENARIO FORECASTS 30
4.1 ASIA/PACIFIC SPILL OVER 31
4.2 ROCKY MOUNTAIN TOURISM 31
4.3 ETHNIC POPULATION TRAVEL 32
4.4 NAFTA/FTA IMPACTS 32
4.5 NORTHERN MINERALS DEVELOPMENT 34
4.6 FORMER SOVIET UNION OIL & GAS 34
4.7 "SOUTHWEST" EFFECT 37
4.8 OPEN SKIES 37
4.9 CARGO TRANS-SHIPMENT 38
4.10 SCENARIO SUMMARY 39
5. CONSOLIDATED DEMAND FORECAST (Year 2002)
40
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