Aid and Power in the Arab World: World Bank and IMF Policy-Based Lending in the Middle East and North Africa PDF
Preview Aid and Power in the Arab World: World Bank and IMF Policy-Based Lending in the Middle East and North Africa
xiv Aid and Power in the Arab World AlsobyJaneHarrigan: PaulMosley,JaneHarriganandJohnToye AIDANDPOWER TheWorldBankandPolicy-BasedLending:Volume1and2 ErnestAryeetey,JaneHarriganandMachikoNissanke(editors) ECONOMICREFORMSINGHANA TheMiracleandtheMirage JaneHarrigan FROMDICTATORSHIPTODEMOCRACY EconomicPolicyinMalawi1964–2000 AlsobyHamedEl-Said: (1992).UnemploymentinJordan.Amman-Jordan:TheEconomicResearchCentre, TheRoyalScientificSociety.Co-authorwithM.KassawnehandM.Ahmera. (1992). The Position of Women in the Jordanian Labour Market. Amman-Jordan: The Economic Research Centre, The Royal Scientific Society. Co-author with M.AhmeraandA.Qassem. (2002).ManagementandInternationalBusinessIssuesinJordan:ThePotentialofan ArabSingapore?NewYork:HaworthPress.Co-editedwithKipBecker. Aid and Power in the Arab World IMF and World Bank Policy-Based Lending in the Middle East and North Africa By Jane Harrigan and Hamed El-Said ©JaneHarriganandHamedEl-Said2009 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2009 978-0-230-21196-4 Allrightsreserved.Noreproduction,copyortransmissionofthis publicationmaybemadewithoutwrittenpermission. Noparagraphofthispublicationmaybereproduced,copiedortransmitted savewithwrittenpermissionorinaccordancewiththeprovisionsofthe Copyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,orunderthetermsofanylicence permittinglimitedcopyingissuedbytheCopyrightLicensingAgency,90 TottenhamCourtRoad,LondonW1T4LP. Anypersonwhodoesanyunauthorizedactinrelationtothispublication maybeliabletocriminalprosecutionandcivilclaimsfordamages. Theauthorshaveassertedtheirrightstobeidentified astheauthorsofthisworkinaccordancewiththeCopyright,Designs andPatentsAct1988. Firstpublished2009by PALGRAVEMACMILLAN Houndmills,Basingstoke,HampshireRG216XSand 175FifthAvenue,NewYork,N.Y.10010 Companiesandrepresentativesthroughouttheworld PALGRAVEMACMILLANistheglobalacademicimprintofthePalgrave MacmillandivisionofSt.Martin’sPress,LLCandofPalgraveMacmillanLtd. Macmillan®isaregisteredtrademarkintheUnitedStates,UnitedKingdom andothercountries.PalgraveisaregisteredtrademarkintheEuropean Unionandothercountries. ISBN 978-1-349-30324-3 ISBN 978-1-137-00159-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9781137001597 Thisbookisprintedonpapersuitableforrecyclingandmadefromfully managedandsustainedforestsources.Logging,pulpingandmanufacturing processesareexpectedtoconformtotheenvironmentalregulationsofthe countryoforigin. AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Harrigan,Jane. AidandpowerintheArabworld:IMFandWorldBankpolicy-based lendingintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica/byJaneHarriganand HamedEl-Said. p.cm. Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. ISBN 978-1-349-30324-3 (alk. paper) 1. Economicassistance–Arabcountries. 2. Internationaleconomic relations–Arabcountries. 3. Finance–Arabcountries. 4. World Bank–Arabcountries. 5. InternationalMonetaryFund–Arab countries. I.El-Said,Hamed. II.Title. HC498.H3732008 338.910956–dc22 2008020953 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 ThisbookisdedicatedtoGillianCameronandto HayaandKamelEl-Said v This page intentionally left blank Contents Listof Tables viii Listof Figures ix Acknowledgements x Foreword xii 1 Globalisation,InternationalFinanceandEconomicReform 1 intheArabWorld 2 TheEconomicandPoliticalDeterminantsof IMFand 10 WorldBankLendingintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica 3 Egypt’sSuccessfulStabilisationwithoutStructuralReform 36 4 TheIMFandtheWorldBankinJordan:ACaseof Over-optimism 75 andElusiveGrowth 5 ThePoliticalEconomyof IMFandWorldBankInterventions: 105 IsTunisiaReallyaModelStudent? 6 EconomicReforminMorocco:StabilisationversusAdjustment 148 7 ConclusionandSynthesis:WhatcanbeLearntfromour 182 FourCountryStudies? Appendices 197 Notes 201 Bibliography 209 Index 222 vii viii List of Tables 1 USaidandWorldBankaidtoMENA(US$million,2000price) 13 2 Donor-recipientfixedeffectscoefficientsforMENAcountries 14 3 Optimalversusactual1996aidallocationinselectedMENA countries 15 4 Selectedeconomicindicatorsof theMENA1975–2000 19 5 Macroeconomicindicatorsforselectedcountries 20 6 Probitanalysisof thedeterminantsof IMFagreements 30 7 Egypt:Keymacroeconomicindicators1991–2004 38 8 Jordan:Keysocialindicators1980–2002 79 9 Jordan:Regressionresultsongrowthof labourproductivity 94 10 Tunisia:Theoutcomeof stabilisation 112 11 Tunisia:Keymacroeconomicindicators,1980–94 116 12 Tunisia:FDIbysector,1986–2004,millionTD 123 13 Tunisia:Averagetariff ratesandeffectiveratesof protection, 1994–2000 126 14 Tunisia:GDPandTFPgrowth(annualgrowthratesin%) 130 15 Boundstestfortheexistenceof cointegration 132 16 Estimatesof thelongruncoefficientsARDL(1,2,2,0,0,0) dependentvariable:realGDPpercapita 133 17 Tunisia:Povertyheadcountindex 139 18 Investment,Tunisia,1983–2004,selectedyears 140 19 ODApercapita,1986–2004,selectedcountries 144 20 Morocco:PeriodaverageGDPgrowthrates 158 viii List of Figures 1 Thesourceof netODAdisbursementstoMENA 12 (US$million,2000price) 51 2 Egypt:BoPcurrentaccountdeficitasapercentageof GDP 3 Egypt:Trendinexportsandimportsaspercentageof GDP, 54 1960–2002 4 DonordisbursementsharesinEgypt,1999–2003 61 5 Jordan:RealGDPgrowthrate(%) 77 6 Jordan:GDPpercapita(constantprice1995US$) 78 7 Jordan:Privateinvestment(%of GDP) 91 8 Jordan:Labourproductivity(GDPperworkerconstant 1995US$) 92 9 Jordan:Totalfactorproductivitygrowth 94 10 Tunisia:Moneyandquasimoneyannualpercentage growth1985–95 114 11 Tunisia:Labourproductivity,1965–2003 129 12 Morocco:GDPgrowthrates1978–2005 167 ix
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