Agriculture outlook '94

434 Pages·1993·25.3 MB·English

by  Agricultural Outlook Conference (U.S.)

Historic, Archive Document
Do not assume content reflects current
scientific knowledge, policies, or practices.

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Agriculture
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Outlook ’94
U.S. Department of Agriculture Headquarters
Washington, D.C. November 30-December 1993
1,
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A Agriculture
Outlook ’94
Conference Steering Committee
James R. Donald, Chair
John E. Lee, Jr.
Henry Bahn
Philip L. Mackie
Kitty Reichelderfer
Robert Riemenschneider
Conference Program Committee
Gerald A. Bange, Chair
Conference Director: Raymond L. Bridge
Assistant Director: Russell G. Barlowe
Conference Staff: Carol Morgan/Verna Blake
Tracey Shaw/LaWanda Musgrove/
Jodi Ponder
Volunteer Recruiter: Beth Hulse
Publicity: Deborah T. Smith
Information: Raymond L. Bridge
Broadcast: David Vannell
Press Operations: Diane Decker/Dixie Lee/
NancyJenkins/Kent Miller/
Marcia Evans
Electronic Publication: Russell Forte/Judy Rude
Exhibits: Larry Sullivan/Bill Boyer
Art Direction: Julie Olson/George Avalos
Printing: Richard A. Truesdale
Logistics: Ralph L. Dillard/Cheryl Reese
Agriculture
Outlook
JL*
United States Department of Agriculture
Conference
Washington, DC 20250-3900
PREFACE
These pages contain speeches presented during Agriculture Outlook ’94, the U.S.
Department ofAgriculture’s 70th annual agricultural outlook conference. The conference
was held at USDA headquarters in Washington D.C. on November 30 and December 1,
1993.
This book is organized by order of presentation during the conference, and includes all
speeches and illustrations submitted by speakers. On the opening day, Secretary of
Agriculture Mike Espy and other top officials discussed new priorities for agriculture, as
well as policy issues affecting U.S. agriculture, farmers and other rural Americans, land
and water, food safety and nutrition. The sessions were televised over satellite. On the
second day, experts from government and the private sector presented their views on the
1994 outlook for farm commodities, food prices and the agricultural economy.
Readers are referred to audio tape cassettes of each session for a complete verbatim
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record. Video tape cassettes are also available for some sessions. cassette order form
can be found at the back of this book.
To purchase additional copies of this Proceedings, call 1-800-999-6779 or write ERS-
NASS, 341 Victory Drive, Herndon, Virginia 22070. For further information on the
conference contact Raymond L. Bridge, information officer, at [phone].
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'CuUAJZ^
8AAMMEESS DDOONALD
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Chairperson
Outlook Conference Steering Committee
World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA
Washington, D.C. 20250-3900 January 1994
i
Schedule at a Glance
Monday November 29, 1993
;
South Building South Building
Seventh Wing TrainingCenter
1:00-5:00 Early Registration Technology Exhibit
Tuesday November 30, 1993
;
Jefferson Auditorium
9:00 Secretary's Keynoteand 1994 Outlook Issues
10:30 Break
11:00 Farm and Rural Perspectives on the Outlook
12:00 Lunch on your own
Secretary's Press Conference
1:15 Environmental Issues for 1994 and Beyond
2:45 Break
3:00 Food Safetyand Nutrition Issues for 1994 and Beyond
5:00 Adjourn
5:15 Conference Reception
Wednesday, December 1993
1,
Jefferson Cafeteria South Building Room 107 Holiday Inn
Auditorium Meeting Room Training Center Administration Crowne Plaza
Building at Metro Center
7:45 Continental Breakfast
8:30 U.S. and World
Agricultural Outlook
for 1994
9:15 U.S. and World Dairy Prospects Forest Products Food Prices and
Food Grains and Future Demand Outlook, 1994 Retail Demand
Prospects and Beyond Prospects
10:30 Break
10:45 U.S. and World Greenhouse, Farm Business 1994 Cotton
Feed Grains Turfgrass and and Household Prospects
Prospects Nursery Outlook Income: Outlook
and Issues
12:00 Lunch on your own Cotton Luncheon:
Hill Views
1:30 Analysts Size Fruit and Vegetables What's in Store Briefing: Health Crop Weather
Up theOilseeds Outlook, Minor forTobacco? Care Reform Briefing; Ag. Meteor-
Complex Use Chemicals Outlook for ology Open House
Rural America (5140 South Bldg.,
repeats at 3:15)
2:45 Break
3:15 Livestock and Developing Export U.S. and World
Poultry: '94 Markets for Aquaculture Sweeteners Outlook
Outlook and Industry in a Dynamic
Trends Marketplace
4:30 Adjourn
5:15 Sweeteners
Reception and
Dinner with Guest
ii Speaker
CONTENTS
Session Speaker and Topic Page
SESSION SECRETARY’S KEYNOTE ADDRESS AND 1994 OUTLOOK ISSUES
1:
Mike Espy, Secretary of Agriculture’s Keynote Address 1
Keith Collins, The 1994 Agricultural Outlook and Underlying Issues 8
Eugene Moos, Agricultural Trade Outlook and Issues 17
SESSION FARM AND RURAL PERSPECTIVES ON THE OUTLOOK
2:
Richard L. Gady, Private Sector Perspective on the Agricultural Outlook and Issues .... 25
Karl N. Stauber, Rural Development Issues 32
SESSION 3: ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES FOR 1994 AND BEYOND
Joan M. Comanor, Ecosystem-Based Management at the Public-Private Land Interface 37
. .
Diane E. Gelburd, Ph.D., Implementing Ecosystem-based Management in the Soil
Conservation Service-What Does it Mean for Land Users? 42
Geoffrey Grubbs, Approaches for Addressing Non-point-source Pollution. No text;
refer to audio tape.
John P. Burt, Agriculture’s Role in Addressing Nonpoint Source Pollution 47
SESSION 4: FOOD SAFETY AND NUTRITION ISSUES FOR 1994 AND BEYOND
Patricia Jensen, Food Safety Initiatives for 1994 and Beyond 53
Dr. Stephen A. Ziller, Food Industry Perspectives on Food Safety and Nutrition 60
Ellen Haas, Food and Consumer Services: Agenda for the Future 65
Marion Nestle, Ph.D, MPH, The Nutrition-Health Connection: USDA Dietary
Guidance Policies 71
Michael F. Jacobson, Ph.D., USDA’s Responsibility to Consumers 78
SESSION 5: THE U.S. AND WORLD AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FOR 1994
James R. Donald, U.S. Agricultural Outlook 84
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Session Speaker and Topic Page
SESSION 6: U.S. AND WORLD FOOD GRAIN PROSPECTS
Craig Jagger and Sara Schwartz, The Prospects for U.S. Wheat in 1994 107
Andrew B. Bellingham, The World Wheat Situation 138
David R. Graves, The Outlook for Rice. No text; refer to audio tape.
SESSION DAIRY PROSPECTS AND FUTURE DEMAND
7:
James Miller, Outlook for Dairy 146
Ken Bailey, Future Prospects for the Midwest Dairy Industry 150
SESSION 8: FOREST PRODUCTS OUTLOOK, 1994 AND BEYOND
Henry Spelter, Forest Products Outlook 158
Dr. H. Fred Kaiser, Forests and Timber Supplies in the 21st Century 167
SESSION FOOD PRICES AND RETAIL DEMAND PROSPECTS
9:
Ralph L. Parlett, The Outlook for Food Prices in 1994 179
A
Paul T. Prentice, Ph.D., Food Prices and Retail Demand: Macroeconomic
Perspective 185
SESSION 10: U.S. AND WORLD FEED GRAINS PROSPECTS
Thomas F. Tice and Peter A. Riley, USDA 1994 Outlook for Feed Grains 193
John Stewart, The Decline of Export Corn Merchandising 201
Pete Wenstrand, Producer Views and Perspectives. No text; refer to audio tape.
SESSION GREENHOUSE, TURFGRASS, AND NURSERY OUTLOOK
11:
Doyle C. Johnson, Financial Performance Trends and Economic Outlook for the U.S.
Greenhouse, Turfgrass, and Nursery Industries 212
Gerardus ("Ger") van der Made, New Challenges in World Horticultural Markets 229
Drew N. Gruenburg, Major Legislative and Regulatory Issues Impacting the U.S.
Floriculture and Environmental Horticulture Industry 236
IV
Session Speaker and Topic Page
SESSION FARM BUSINESS AND HOUSEHOLD FINANCE, OUTLOOK AND
12:
ISSUES
Robert G. McElroy and Charles Dodson, Issues and Outlook for Farm Business
Finance 242
Janet E. Perry, Farm Household Outlook: Reliance on Farm Income Depends on
Size of Farm 252
James Ryan and Kenneth Erickson, Outlook for Changes in Farm Financial
Performance 261
SESSION 13: 1994 COTTON PROSPECTS
Robert A. Skinner, Leslie A. Meyer, and Stephen MacDonald, Outlook for Cotton 270
Keth Henley, Ted’s Demise 279
Carlos Moore, Trade Opportunities and Threats for U.S. Textiles 284
SESSION 14: COTTON LUNCHEON: HILL VIEWS
Howard "Chip" Conley, Chief Economist, Policy Issues for 1994. No text;
refer to audio tape.
SESSION 15: ANALYSTS SIZE UP THE OILSEEDS COMPLEX
Nancy Morgan and George Douvelis, The Outlook for the Oilseeds Industry:
Forecasting is Never Easy 293
Sara Wyant, Five Challenges for Soybean Growers in the 1995 Farm Bill 306
Michael V. Krueger, Industry Views and Perspectives - Oilseeds 311
SESSION 16: FRUITS AND VEGETABLES OUTLOOK; MINOR USE CHEMICALS
Dennis A. Shields, 1994 Outlook for U.S. Fruit and Tree Nuts 317
John M. Love, U.S. Vegetable Situation and Outlook 326
Howard R. Wetzel, The U.S. Fruit and Vegetable Export Situation 332
Daniel A. Botts, The Outlook for Minor Use Chemicals and Their
Alternatives 341
Paul H. Schwartz Jr, Comment on the Outlook for Minor Use Chemicals and
Their Alternatives. No text; refer to audio tape.
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Session Speaker and Topic Page
SESSION 17: WHAT’S IN STORE FOR TOBACCO
Verner N. Grise, Outlook for U.S. Tobacco 345
Daniel J. Stevens, Foreign Outlook for Tobacco. No text; refer to audio tape.
Danny McKinney, Grower’s Perspective on the U.S. Tobacco Outlook. No text;
refer to audio tape.
Murray W. Jones, U.S. Tobacco Outlook From One Cigarette Manufacturer’s
Perspective 351
SESSION 18A: BRIEFING ON HEALTH CARE REFORM OUTLOOK FOR RURAL
AMERICA
This special event is not included in the proceedings. For further information, contact the
presenter, Dena Puskin Sc.D, Deputy Director, Office of Rural Health Policy, Health
Resources and Services Administration, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,
Room 905 Parklawn Building, 5600 Fishers Lane, Rockville, MD 20857; 301-443-0835.
SESSION 18B: CROP WEATHER BRIEFING AND AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY
OPEN HOUSE
This special event is not included in the proceedings. For further information, contact Ray
Motha, Supervisory Meteorologist, Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, World Agricultural
Outlook Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Room 5143 South Building, Washington,
DC
20250-3800; 202-720-9807.
SESSION 19: LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY: 1994 OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY
TRENDS
Steve Reed, Outlook for Red Meat and Poultry 357
Bruce Ginn, Emerging Trends in the Red Meat and Poultry Industries 365
SESSION 20: DEVELOPING EXPORT MARKETS FOR AQUACULTURE
David J. Harvey, Outlook for U.S. Aquaculture 385
Joseph P. McCraren, Aquaculture is Agriculture . 392
Joel Chetrick and Steve Beasley, The Evolving Role of the Foreign Agricultural
Service in Seafood Promotion 395
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